世界经济的增长、结构变化与“全球失衡”

2006年世界经济预计增长5.1%,成为上世纪70年代以来全球经济第三个增幅超过5%的年份,2007年将有所缓行,但即使降至4.9%甚至3.5%,自2003年开始的这一轮增长周期的增幅和延时性也是30多年来最好的。究其原因,是经济全球化带来了世界经济结构的深刻变化增强了耐冲击能力,主要经济体尤其是发展中大国和转轨经济大国本土经济国际化在与经济全球化浪潮交汇互动中充分地发挥了比较优势,推动了全球范围的资源配置优化和配置效率提高。同时,这也循环积累起了“全球失衡”。但与历史上的失衡相比,当前的“全球失衡”使美国全球经济“火车头”地位进一步增强,发展中大国群的“引擎”作用逐步显现。因此,具有更长久的可延续性,利益相关方也具有更大的可承受和可以接受的程度。如果“利害关系者”能进行互利共赢的协同调整,不仅能使降低纠正失衡的成本,而且将迎来一个更加平衡和更可持续发展的世界经济新格局。     

外资进入加剧了中国全球价值链地位的“低端锁定”吗?——来自中国282个地级市金融发展的经验证据

文章从金融发展视角探讨外资进入是否导致中国全球价值链地位的“低端锁定”。在分析金融发展约束下外资进入对东道国全球价值链地位的影响机制基础上,利用2003～2016年中国282个地级市城市面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现：金融发展通过融资效率、风险投资和价值发现渠道制约外资技术溢出,外资进入对中国全球价值链地位的影响存在显著的金融发展门槛效应,特别是在金融发展水平较低时,外资进入显著地加剧了中国全球价值链地位的“低端锁定”;随着金融发展水平的提升,外资带来的技术溢出效应开始显现,对中国全球价值链地位攀升有显著的推动作用,考虑内生性和动态性问题后,结论依然成立。文章还发现,当前我国大部分城市金融发展仍未达到外资进入促进中国全球价值链地位攀升的最优水平。研究结论可对于“十四五”规划期间推动中国贸易高质量发展和全球价值链地位提升带来启示。     

“后危机时代”的调整与变革——2009年全球经济与金融形势述评及前景展望

2009年是"后危机时代"全球经济与国际金融大变革的重要年份,全球经济逐步从衰退走向复苏,国际金融领域趋于稳定;在通缩、通胀压力并存的局面下,导致世界各国经济刺激的宽松货币政策是否退出或进行新的货币政策调整难以决断;贸易保护主义成为阻碍全球经济复苏新的障碍;与此同时,多边国际金融机构的改革和调整也在同步进行。     

日本世博会保险的运作及对我国的借鉴

2010年,世博会将在我国举行。随着世博会建设工程的展开,各种人身风险、财产风险、责任风险也将产生。日本的世博会保险有许多成功的经验,我国在世博会保险的规划上可借鉴日本的经验,但也须注重自身特定的风险。     

日本居民户地震保险制度探析

日本是目前世界上地震保险制度最发达的国家。日本居民户地震保险制度经历了建立的前期准备、正式建立和修改与完善三个变迁阶段。介绍了现行日本居民户地震保险制度中保险覆盖范围、损失的赔付范围和保险索赔支付办法、参保方法、保险费率、保险金额、保险索赔支付金额限制、再保险、责任准备金的相关内容。在此基础上,剖析了日本居民户地震保险制度发展的成功经验和面临的一系列挑战。     

Appraising Unhappiness in the Wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake

Considering the case of the Great East Japan Earthquake, we use the experienced‐utility approach to appraise the psychological distress from disaster‐related news. We take advantage of the serendipitous timing of our original nationwide weekly panel survey that became a fitting resource for the investigation of subjective well‐being in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. Although all of Japanese society was affected, we found geographical heterogeneity between the affected areas (Sendai and Tokyo) and the unaffected areas in terms of mental costs. Our finding reminds us of the focusing effect (Kahneman et al., 2006 ; Dolan and Kahneman, 2008 ) as captured by Schkade and Kahneman ( 1998 ) in the maxim “Nothing in life is quite as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it”.     

日本地震防灾救灾对策的经验教训及启示

日本处于环太平洋地震带,地震多发。多年来,日本不断建立完善合理的防灾救灾体制,在地震防御、应急对策和灾后重建等方面积累了丰富的经验。本文介绍了阪神大地震及应对此次震灾所采取的措施和经验,希望对我国正在开展的抗灾救灾工作提供有益的借鉴和启示。     

日本的现代化农业

日本国土面积37.78万平方公里，1995年耕地面积516万公顷，占国土面积的13.6%，人均耕地仅有0.04公顷。山地约占80%，耕地分布较分散，斜坡地占的比重较大。因此，分布在山上的小块梯田在耕地中占有相当大的比重，对耕作，特别是机械化作业有较大影响。日本属于海洋性温和气候，比较适合各种农作物的生长，尤其是水稻。除北海道外，基本上一年都可种植两茬作物。另外，由于日本的土地肥力低，再加上坡度大、雨量多，土壤肥力流失严重。正是在这样的自然条件下，日本在第二次世界大战后不到30年的时间里就实现了农业的现代化。实现农业现代化…     

新时期的投资策略

投资是推动经济增长和发展的重要力量。面对新时期的新形势和新任务,投资的基本功能未变,而具体策略应当与时俱进,有所转换。本文从五个方面简述新时期的投资策略。     

The Social Economy Sector in Japan

The Social Economy Sector is a new comer in Japanese society. Based on two experiments and theories derived from the European concept of social economy and the American concept of the non profit organization, the Japanese way of integration of a social economy sector is developing under the name of the Non Profit and Co-operative Sector. The change of social policy and public policy under the influence of the new liberalism has urged a change in traditional relations between public sector and private sectors and created the new role of a social economy sector. Even though there is no clear image of the sector, both the financial need of public authorities and the social needs of citizen users especially in social security and medical care has made the social economy sector an alternative for realizing better service supply.     

The Short Period and the Long Period in Macroeconomics: An Awkward Distinction

The aim of this paper is to show that the meaning of the well-known concepts of short period and long period is often unclear and may be seriously misleading when applied to macroeconomic analysis. Evidence of this confusion emerges through reappraisal of the interpretative debate of the 1980s and 1990s, which aimed to establish whether Keynes's General Theory should be considered a short- or long-period analysis of the aggregate level of production. Further evidence is provided by the ambiguous use that seems to be made of this distinction in macroeconomics textbooks, as will be shown in the paper. Having explored some possible explanations for the difficulties in defining and applying these methodological tools at a ‘macro’ level, the conclusion is drawn that it would be preferable to abandon this terminology in classifying different aggregate models and simply to make explicit the given factors and the independent and dependent variables in each model, exactly as Keynes did in Chapter 18 of his major work.     

The burden of multiple sclerosis in Japan

Aims: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a disabling autoimmune disease affecting the central nervous system. Few studies have examined the effect of MS on patient outcomes in Japan. The study aim was to quantify MS burden in Japan by comparing MS respondents to matched controls on patient outcomes.

Materials and methods: Data from seven administrations of the nationally representative Japan National Health and Wellness Survey (2009–2014 and 2016) were used (n?=?181,423). Respondents self-reporting MS diagnosis were compared with respondents not reporting MS. Matched controls were selected using propensity scores. Respondents with MS and matched controls were compared on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL), work productivity and activity impairment, healthcare resource utilization, and costs. Comparisons were made using Chi-square tests or one-way ANOVAs.

Results: A total of 96 respondents with MS and 480 matched controls were included in the analyses. MS respondents reported worse mental (44.35 vs 47.51, p?p?p?p?p?p?p?Limitations: Japan NHWS data are cross-sectional, and causal relationships cannot be established. Due to the self-reported nature of the data, responses could not be independently verified.

Conclusions: Results suggest MS in Japan is associated with poorer HRQoL and greater work and activity impairment, healthcare resource use, and costs. Improved MS management could benefit both patients and society.