信息技术与国有商业银行产出率:一种实证分析

关于投资于信息技术是否会提高产出率的研究已有许多.这些研究大多集中产业层面和企业层面,而在企业层面的讨论更多是考察了制造业企业.本文则试图研究国有商业银行信息技术投资对产出率的作用.本文的结论是用于信息技术的投资并没有提高绩效而更多的是出于竞争目的的战略需要,分析的结果同时表明由于信息技术劳动有着巨大的投资回报,因此银行应该从重视信息技术资本投资转向重视信息技术劳动激励.     

An estimated two-country DSGE model of Austria and the Euro Area

We present a two-country New Open Economy Macro model of the Austrian economy within the European Union’s Economic & Monetary Union (EMU). The model includes both nominal and real frictions that have proven to be important in matching business cycle facts, and that allow for an investigation of the effects and cross-country transmission of a number of structural shocks: shocks to technologies, shocks to preferences, cost-push type shocks and policy shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods on quarterly data covering the period of 1976:Q2–2005:Q1. In addition to the assessment of the relative importance of various shocks, the model also allows to investigate effects of the monetary regime switch with the final stage of the EMU and investigates in how far this has altered macroeconomic transmission. We find that Austria’s economy appears to react stronger to demand shocks, while in the rest of the Euro Area supply shocks have a stronger impact. Comparing the estimations on pre-EMU and EMU subsamples we find that the contribution of (rest of the) Euro Area shocks to Austria’s business cycle fluctuations has increased significantly.

Ex ante capital position,changes in the different components of regulatory capital and bank risk

We investigate the impact of changes in capital of European banks on their risk-taking behaviour from 1992 to 2006, a time period covering the Basel I capital requirements. We specifically focus on the initial level and type of regulatory capital banks hold. First, we assume that risk changes depend on banks’ ex ante regulatory capital position. Second, we consider the impact of an increase in each component of regulatory capital on banks’ risk changes. We find that, for highly capitalized, adequately capitalized and strongly undercapitalized banks, an increase in equity or in subordinated debt positively affects risk. Moderately undercapitalized banks tend to invest in less risky assets when their equity ratio increases but not when they improve their capital position by extending hybrid capital or subordinated debt. On the whole, our conclusions support the need to implement more explicit thresholds to classify European banks according to their capital ratios but also to clearly distinguish pure equity from hybrid and subordinated instruments.     

湖南省文化产业投入产出分析

近年来“文化湘军”成功突围,文化产业迅速发展,使其成为湖南省的一个重要的支柱产业。基于湖南省2007年投入产出表,对湖南省文化产业的相关分析系数进行计算,对文化产业的产业关联和产业波及进行定量的分析。研究结果表明：湖南省的文化产业发展虽然在全国范围内取得领先的地位,但是总体水平仍然比较低,尚处于起步阶段,对于全省经济的支撑作用和拉动作用都很弱。     

Macroeconomic policies and output fluctuations in slovakia: Application of the taylor rule

Applying the Taylor rule, this paper finds that real output for Slovakia is positively influenced by real appreciation and world output, and negatively affected by the expected inflation rate, real government deficit, the euro interest rate, and the U.S. federal funds rate. Policy implications are that the Taylor rule works well for Slovakia, that expansionary fiscal policy may crowd out private spending and would not raise output, and that the conventional wisdom of devaluating a currency to stimulate the economy would not apply to Slovakia. (JEL: E52 E62 F41 O52) I am grateful to an anonymous referee for very insightful comments. Any errors are the author’s responsibility.     

北京市制造业上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证分析

企业资本结构作为上市公司所面临的决策问题,越来越受到重视。通过实证分析,用多元回归等统计学方法研究35家北京市制造业上市公司企业资本结构的影响因素。影响因素包括总资产、股东权益、流动比率、主营业务利润率、每股净资产、存货周转率、总资产增长率等7个指标。结果显示,企业的资本结构与企业规模呈正相关性,与偿债变现能力、企业盈利能力、企业投资价值呈负相关性。     

金融危机对资本充足率监管与银行风险承担激励的影响：基于我国上市银行的实证比较

运用局部调整模型和三阶最小二乘法（3SLS）,分析了金融危机如何影响资本充足率监管与商业银行的风险承担激励之间的关系,并首次分析了金融危机发生前后我国上市银行在面临资本监管压力下资本水平与风险水平的调整。结果表明,金融危机强化了银行的资本充足率监管效果,但也增强了银行的风险承担激励,这与监管当局试图通过资本充足率监管达到维持银行系统稳定性的初衷相违背。此外,金融危机的发生没有显著影响银行资本调整与风险调整之间的关系。     

珠三角地区资本结构与劳资关系的实证研究

根据资本-劳动替代的“拐点论”,经济发展的初期总是伴随着物质资本的积累,物质资本将在相当长的时期占据经济增长的主导地位;由于资本劳动的边际替代率递减,当物质资本积累处于一定阶段,产生对人力资本更多需求,人力资本则成为这个时期的主要资本;只有在经济持续发展,政治文明发展到一定程度,信任、规范、网络和社会公德等社会资本才有可能成为推动经济发展的主导力量。珠三角地区城市的劳资关系在近30年均处于下降趋势,物质资本总体处于上升趋势,人力资本意义上的劳动力尤其是高层次高素质的劳动力较缺乏;社会资本可以显著的促进物质资本和人力资本的积累,物质资本水平的提高并不必然产生人力资本积累和社会资本积累的结果,人力资本积累也不必然促进社会资本的发展。需要转变经济发展方式,为资本演化创造物质条件,促进人力资本和社会资本积累,并在企业管理层面上促进合作型劳资关系的形成。     

制度环境约束下的企业绩效分析——基于中国东北地区企业的实证研究

针对中国转型时期的经济增长之谜,现有研究分别基于社会关系和分权制度进行探讨。本文综合上述两种观点,将社会关系和正式制度微观化为企业的关系资本和制度资本,并进一步把关系资本细分为商业关系资本和政治关系资本,从而将宏观制度环境纳入到微观企业绩效的分析框架中。实证研究采用基于残差正态分布的有序选择模型对东北地区313家企业进行回归分析,我们发现:商业关系资本与绩效水平和绩效增长均显著正相关;政治关系资本与绩效增长呈倒U型曲线关系;制度资本与绩效水平呈二次曲线关系,而其与商业关系资本的综合效应能够显著提升企业绩效水平,促进绩效增长。     

The Powers of The Central Governments and the Problems of Enlarging and Deepening the European Union: An Essay of Constitutional Political Economy

In this paper we present an adaptation of Buchanan and Tullock’s model in order to apply it to the constitutional choices regarding the assigning of powers to a supranational authority. The outcome of the economic-political model developed in this paper demonstrates that there are constraints in the supply of integration, suggesting that the enlargement and deepening of the European Union will have to be based on federalist conceptions. The authors should like to thanks seminar participants at European Public Choice conference (Belgirate 2002) and ECSA-C conference (Toronto 2002) where earlier versions of the paper have benefited from constructive suggestions. The authors assume the sole responsibility for any errors remaining in this version.     

An analysis of price and output behavior in the Indian economy: 1951–1973

This article attempts to analyze the behavior of prices — absolute as well as relative — and real outputs in the Indian economy over the period 1951–1973. This is done in a general equilibrium framework through specifying a macro-econometric model of the economy, emphasizing the supply constraints arising from the agricultural sector and the foreign sector. The model equations are estimated through two stage least squares estimation procedure, using annual data for the period 1951–1973. The impact of fluctuations in agricultural output and foreign exchange shortages on prices and outputs in the economy is explored within the model framework.     

Cost Structure and Capacity Utilisation in Multi-product Industries: An Application to the Basque Trawl Industry

To empirically study production structure and the capacity level at which vessels are harvesting, a short-run translog cost function is estimated. From the estimated parameters, two capacity utilisation measures are calculated (ray returns to scale and a dual capacity utilisation measure). Both capacity utilisation measures suggest that there is excess capacity in the Basque trawler fleet. These measures are also estimated annually and they indicate the same conclusion. The Basque trawler fleet can therefore gain from increased production levels.     

银行资产证券化的直接动因——来自美国银行控股公司的经验证据

资产证券化已经成为现代银行的一种重要融资手段。尽管有许多文献对银行资产证券化的动因在理论方面做出了分析和解释,但是其经验证据却相对缺乏。本文采用能够处理面板数据的计量经济方法对资产规模大于10亿美元的美国银行控股公司的资产证券化数据进行了分析。经验结果显示,银行控股公司进行资产证券化主要是出于增加流动性和降低融资成本的目的。我们的结果对于推进我国银行资产证券化有一定的参考价值。     

The Innovation Potential and Thematic Leadership of Austrian Industries: An Interpretation of the Technology Delphi with Regard to the Old Structures/High-performance Paradox

The Austrian Technology Delphi searched for problem-oriented fieldsof potential leadership of Austrian scientists and firms. This study classifies the Delphi results according to standard industry classifications in order to facilitate their use by industrial economists and to propose an explanation of the old structures/high performance paradox. It reveals that expertsawarded the top marks for innovativeness to low- and high-qualification as well as to mainstream and research intensive industries, not to medium qualification and to marketing and labour-intensive ones. This implies that innovation is by no means restricted to high-tech industries and that the standard industry classifications are not well suited to deal with aspects of technology policy. Old structures need not hinder high performance.     

中国贸易发展与经济增长影响机制的经验研究

本文对贸易和人均产出之间的影响机制进行了分析。中国改革开放以来的经验数据证实 ,国际贸易通过提升国家要素禀赋结构和加快制度变革进程对人均产出产生了正面影响 ;但国内贸易则相反 ,国内市场分割的加剧 ,阻碍了国内市场的一体化进程 ,进而对经济产生负面影响。另外 ,本文还发现 ,尽管人力资本对人均产出有着重要而显著的影响 ,但贸易的变化却较少通过这条途径对人均产出产生影响。     

Immigration, fertility, and human capital: A model of economic decline of the West

I show how the influences of unskilled immigration, differential fertility between immigrants and the local indigenous population, and incentives for investment in human capital combine to predict the decline of the West. In particular, indigenous low-skilled workers lose from unskilled immigration even if the indigenous low-skilled workers do not finance redistribution, do not compete with immigrants in the labor market, and do not compete with immigrants for publicly financed income transfers. For the economy at large, high-fertility unskilled immigrants and a low-fertility indigenous population result in economic decline through reduced human capital accumulation and reduced growth of per-capita output.     

Natural capital and quality of life: a model for evaluating the sustainability of alternative regional development paths

Natural capital contributes to the quality of life of a region in two complementary ways: first, by directly providing environmental services that cannot be imported, and second, by supplying the natural resources that, through a human controlled production process, become valuable to humans. The evolution of the combination of these two components of the quality of life determines the path of development a region takes. Environmental services also determine the ability of natural capital to regenerate itself. Ecosystems and other components of the regional natural capital produce environmental services that provide life-support functions necessary for natural capital reproduction. The destruction of this critical natural capital impairs the internal sources of improvement of the quality of life of a region, leading to a non-sustainable path of development. This article describes a model of the relationship between natural capital and quality of life that provides a stricter definition of sustainable development through explicit characterization and classification of natural capital according to its ability to produce life-supporting environmental services, by its substitutability, and by its possible reconstruction. Application of this model then shows that there are 51 possible regional development paths, only 32 of which are sustainable and only 14 of which are sustainable while also providing improvements in quality of life. Only six of these 14 sustainable development paths are attained with economic growth, however, while the other eight paths increase quality of life by increasing the production of environmental services. The model could help in the development of institutional interventions that would promote regional development paths that are sustainable.