Adverse selection costs: A study on the Chinese stock market

Employing a bid-ask spread model applicable for order-driven market, this paper decomposes the bid-ask spread of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) into adverse selection and order processing cost components to investigate the relationship between the components of bid-ask spread and order size. It examines the impacts of firm size, price, trading activeness, and volatility on adverse selection cost, and explores the intraday pattern of adverse selection costs and informative trading. Results show that adverse selection costs increase with trade scale. However, order processing costs do not exhibit the economies of scale. Stocks of large firms, which are high-priced and actively traded, have relatively low adverse selection costs; stocks with large volatility have relatively high adverse selection costs. Moreover, this paper finds that the adverse selection component of bid-ask spread in the Chinese stock market exhibits an L-shaped intraday pattern, which implies that heavy trading around market opening is dominated by informative trading, while heavy trading near market closing is dominated by liquidity trading.     

Vehicle currency use in international trade

We explore the major driving forces for currency invoicing in international trade with a simple model and a novel dataset covering 24 countries. We contrasts a “coalescing” effect, where exporters minimize the movements of their prices relative to their competitors', with incentives to hedge macroeconomic volatility and transaction costs. The key determinants of invoice currency choice are industry features and country size, with some role for foreign-exchange bid-ask spreads. The coalescing effect also goes a long way to explaining the well-known dominance of the dollar. Trade flows to the United States are predominantly invoiced in dollar, as foreign exporters face competition with U.S. firms. The use of the dollar in trade flows that do not involve the United States reflects trade in homogeneous products where firms need to keep their price in line with their competitors'.     

Reputation-based pricing and price improvements

Dealers often offer price improvements, relative to posted quotes, to their clients. In this paper, we propose an explanation to this practice. We also analyze its effects on market liquidity and traders’ welfare. Enduring relationships allow dealers to avoid informed trades by offering price improvements to clients who do not trade with the dealer when they are informed. A dealer never observes whether a specific client is informed or not but he can avoid informed orders by conditioning his offers on past trading profits. Cream-skimming of uninformed order-flow increases the risk of informed trading for dealers without a relationship. Thus, authorizing price improvements increases bid-ask spreads and impairs the welfare of investors without a relationship. It may even decrease the welfare of investors who develop a relationship as they sometimes need to trade at posted quotes. The model predicts a positive relationship between (a) the price improvements granted to a specific investor and past trading profits with this investor or (b) the frequency of price improvements and bid-ask spreads.     

A generalized theoretical modelling approach for the assessment of economic-capital under asset market liquidity risk constraints

This paper proposes a concrete theoretical foundation and a new modelling framework that attempts to tackle the issue of market/liquidity risk and economic-capital estimation at a portfolio level by combining two mutual asset market/liquidity risk models. In essence, this study extends research literature related to the assessment of the asset market/liquidity risk by providing a generalized theoretical modelling underpinning that handle, from the same perspective, market and liquidity risks jointly and integrate both risks into a portfolio setting without a commensurate increase of statistical postulations. As such, we argue that market and liquidity risk components are correlated in most cases and can be integrated into one single market/liquidity framework that consists of two interrelated sub-components. The first component is attributed to the impact of adverse price movements and is modelled based on the concept of liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk framework, while the second component focuses on the risk of variation in transactions costs due to the bid-ask spreads and it attempts to measure the likelihood that it will cost more than expected to liquidate the asset position. As such, the model comprises a new approach to contemplating the impact of time-varying volatility of the bid-ask spread and its upshot on the overall asset market/liquidity risk. The modelling framework can be constructive for financial service industries in emerging-economies and particularly in reinforcing rational economic-capital allocation in light of the aftermaths of the sub-prime financial crisis.     

The profitability of index futures arbitrage: Evidence from bid-ask quotes

Previous studies investigated the profitability of stock index futures based on transaction price data, and could overstate the frequency of arbitrage opportunities and size of arbitrage profits. This article obtains a data base for the Hong Kong index futures and index options market that contains both real-time transaction prices and bid-ask quotes; the article further examines the bias of identifying arbitrage opportunities based on transaction prices. The article finds the percentage of observations violating no-arbitrage bounds is significantly reduced when bid-ask quotes are employed instead of transaction prices. This suggests studies that implement arbitrage strategies based on transaction prices employ prices from the wrong side of the spread. This article finds a relationship between the frequency of violations (evaluated from transaction prices) and the size of bid-ask spreads in the futures and options markets. This phenomenon indicates that a larger mispricing, which may arise when the bid-ask spread is wider, does not necessarily imply profitable arbitrage opportunity. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:743–763, 1998     

Flight-to-liquidity: Evidence from China's stock market

In an order-driven and strictly regulated stock market, illiquidity risks' effects on asset pricing should be highlighted, particularly in such extreme market conditions as those in China. This paper utilizes panel data from China's stock market in an attempt to answer whether the illiquidity risk in various dimensions—including price impacts, the transaction speed, trading volume, transaction costs, and asymmetric information—can explain stock returns. We find that almost all dimensions of stock illiquidity are positively associated with excess stock returns. More importantly, smaller, less-liquid stocks suffer more liquidity costs, providing a strong evidence for “flight-to-liquidity.” Additionally, the transaction costs and asymmetric information, denoted by bid-ask spreads, robustly account for these illiquidity effects on stock pricing and differ from the findings in the U.S. market. We also find that the “flight-to-liquidity” can partially explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, investors' gambling, and herding psychologies. This study provides substantial policy implications in regulation and portfolio management for emerging markets.     

The determinants of bid-ask spreads in the foreign exchange futures market: A microstructure analysis

This paper investigates and analyzes the intraday and daily determinants of bid-ask spreads (BASs) in the foreign exchange futures (FXF) market. It is found that the number of transactions and the volatility of FXF prices are the major determinants. The number of transactions is negatively related to the BAS, whereas volatility in general is positively related to it. The study also finds that there are economies of scale in trading FXF contracts. The intraday BAS follows a U-shaped pattern, and they tend to be higher on Mondays and Tuesdays than on other days of the week. Higher spreads at the beginning and end of a trading day are consistent with the presence of adverse selection and the avoidance of the possibility of carrying undesirable inventory overnight, respectively. Seasonal differences in BASs that are related to the delivery date of a contract are also found. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 307–324, 1999     

The influence of oil price uncertainty on stock liquidity

Using high-frequency intraday data, this study provides strong empirical evidence that elevated oil price uncertainty has a significant and negative influence on stock liquidity. More specifically, the results suggest that large oil-related corporations are most affected, followed by small-listed firms more generally. Further analysis reveals that liquidity providers widen the bid-ask spreads to protect themselves during periods of high oil price uncertainty for large-listed firms, particularly those in the oil industry. These findings are robust to various measures of oil price uncertainty, different market conditions, structural break analysis and show the influence of oil price movements extends to stock liquidity.     

A state-dependent model of intermediate goods pricing

Recent analyses of transaction-level data sets have generated new stylized facts on price setting and greatly influenced the empirical open- and closed-economy macroeconomics literatures. This work has uncovered marked heterogeneity in price stickiness, demonstrated that even non-zero price changes do not fully “pass through” exchange rate shocks, and offered evidence of synchronization in the timing of price changes. Further, intrafirm prices have been shown to differ from arm's length prices in each of these characteristics. This paper develops a state-dependent model of price setting by strategic intermediate goods producers that anticipate and respond to their competitors' actions. The model, which allows for both arm's length and intrafirm transactions, is able to generate all of these empirical pricing patterns.     

Structural change and the bid-ask spread: evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE)

This article quantifies the size of the implicit bid-ask spread and examines the impact of three structural changes on the relationship between the bid-ask spread and its determinants on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). A sample of 135 firms was analyzed using a time series over the period from January 1991 to February 1996. It was found that the size of the spread is substantially larger on the JSE and that the independent variables (price, volatility and trading volume) explain a smaller proportion of variation in the spread than on developed exchanges. The evidence shows that the spread decreased after tax structural change, but increased after both political and economic structural changes. The size of the spread decreased on average from 1.71% to 1.24% following tax structural change and increased from 1.67% to 1.83% and from 1.10% to 1.24% following political and economic structural changes, respectively. The evidence also shows that the impact of tax, political and economic structural changes on the relationship between the spread and its determinants is not statistically significant. The results show that while the independent variables explain from 23.45 to 48.2% of the variation in the spread, there is no statistically significant change in the coefficients of the independent variables between before and after structural change regressions.     

Automatic adjustment clauses and allocative efficiency in public utilities

This paper presents a formal analysis of the efficiency effects of automatic adjustment clauses (AACs) is regulated industries. Using a two-input model of ex ante/ex post input choice and a general putty-clay technology, we analyze the relative extent of allocative distortions due to each of three alternative regulatory policies—periodic rate review with and without an AAC, and an AAC without any rate review—for the case of a regulated firm that chooses an ex post technology to maximize the present value of future profits.Our results indicate that the economic rationale for using AACs in industries already subject to intermittent rate review is not unambiguous, even in the face of severe cost inflation, and is particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the price elasticity of demand for output and the rate and direction of input price changes. We are forced to conclude that the use of AACs in regulated industries such as electric power, while originally justified on the basis of financial viability, may well carry significant economic costs in the form of allocative inefficiency that may outweigh the benefits.     

Optimal dynamic behavior of a market maker in choosing bid and asked prices

Dynamic programming is used to describe a specialist's choice of bid and asked prices given uncertainty about both limit and market orders. The role of limit orders is emphasized. Optimal quotes depend on the composition of limit orders, the size of the specialist's position, and the time of day. The optimal bid-ask spread, however, depends only on the composition of the book. The capitalized value of the specialist's franchise is studied. Long-run probability distributions for bid and ask prices are obtained, which show that the variances of these prices increase as the end of the day approaches.     

CHOQUET PRICING FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS WITH FRICTIONS1

In markets where dealers play a central role, bid-ask spreads inhibit asset valuation as defined by the formation cost of a replicating portfolio. We introduce a nonlinear valuation formula similar to the usual expectation with respect to the risk-adjusted probability measure. This formula expresses the asset's selling and buying prices set by dealers as the Choquet integrals of their random payoffs We investigate several price puzzles: the violation of the put-call parity and the fact that the components of a security can sell at a premium to the underlying security (primes and scores).     

订单驱动机制下买卖价差构成分析——兼论以买卖价差度量流动性的可靠性

买卖价差是金融市场微观结构理论研究的重要组成部分。在报价驱动交易机制下,买卖价差由指令处理成本、存货成本和非对称信息成本构成。而在订单驱动交易机制下,若不考虑订单处理成本,买卖价差则主要取决于投资者对资产预期价值的差异、买卖双方投资者间的比例和逆向选择成本。经研究发现,买卖价差随投资者对资产预期与逆向选择成本的增加而增加,当买卖双方力量对比相当时,买卖价差达到最大;而在单边买方或卖方市场,买卖价差则达到最小,这一点与通常对流动性的理解是相矛盾的。由此,在订单驱动机制下,以买卖价差作为流动性度量指标是不可靠的。     

Vehicle currency use in international trade

We explore the major driving forces for currency invoicing in international trade with a simple model and a novel dataset covering 24 countries. We contrasts a “coalescing” effect, where exporters minimize the movements of their prices relative to their competitors', with incentives to hedge macroeconomic volatility and transaction costs. The key determinants of invoice currency choice are industry features and country size, with some role for foreign-exchange bid–ask spreads. The coalescing effect also goes a long way to explaining the well-known dominance of the dollar. Trade flows to the United States are predominantly invoiced in dollar, as foreign exporters face competition with U.S. firms. The use of the dollar in trade flows that do not involve the United States reflects trade in homogeneous products where firms need to keep their price in line with their competitors'.     

The determinants of cross-border equity flows

We explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross-border equity flows between 14 countries, 1989-1996. We show that a “gravity” model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions. Gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs, in which both information and the transaction technology play a role. Distance proxies some information costs, and other variables explicitly represent information transmission, an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors, and the efficiency of transactions. The geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions, while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive, once we control for the informational friction. We broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings.     

Tick size reduction,execution costs,and informational efficiency in the regular and E-mini Nasdaq-100 index futures markets

On April 2, 2006, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reduced the minimum tick size of the floor-traded and E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures from 0.5 to 0.25 index points. This study examines the effect of this change in the contract design on execution costs, informational efficiency, and price discovery. The results show a significant reduction in the effective spreads in both of the contract markets but especially in the electronically traded E-mini futures. The paper also finds that the tick size reduction has improved price discovery and informational efficiency in the E-mini futures market. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:871–888, 2008     

Decimalization,trading costs,and information transmission between ETFs and index futures

The impact of changes in trading costs, due to decimalization, on informed trading and speed of information transmission between exchange‐traded funds (ETFs) and their corresponding index futures is examined. ETFs began to trade in decimals on January 29, 2001, and index futures continued to trade in their original tick sizes. The focus is on whether the decrease in the minimum tick size of ETFs influences the relative performances of these two types of index instruments in the price‐discovery process. It is found that for ETFs, the trading activity increases, but the market depth drops significantly after decimalization. The spreads for ETFs generally decrease, but the adverse selection component of ETF spreads increases. Furthermore, after decimalization, ETFs start to lead index futures in the price‐discovery process and its share of information also increases. Although index futures still assume a dominant role in information discovery, the information content of the ETFs' prices improves significantly after decimalization. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:131–151, 2006     

Market microstructure of FT-SE 100 index futures: An intraday empirical analysis

This article examines the market microstructure of the FT-SE Index futures market by analyzing the intraday patterns of bid-ask spreads and trading activity. The patterns are remarkably different from those of stock and options markets because of the futures market's open outcry system with frenzied scalpers/short-term marketmakers. Spreads are stable over the day, but decline sharply at the close and increase when U.S. macroeconomic news is distributed. Traders actively trade at the open with narrow spreads and large trade sizes. Volatility and volume have higher values at the open and close and when U.S. news is released. The overall results suggest that information asymmetry in the index futures market is insignificant, and traders find it easy to control inventory. The results are also broadly consistent with the Grossman and Miller (1988) model that describes liquidity as the price of transaction demand for immediacy. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 31–58, 1999     

Box‐spread arbitrage efficiency of Nifty index options: The Indian evidence

This study examines the market efficiency for the European style Nifty index options using the box‐spread strategy. Time‐stamped transactions data are used to identify the mispricing and arbitrage opportunities for options with this modelfree approach. Profit opportunities, after accounting for the transaction costs, are quite frequent, but do not persist even for two minutes. The mispricing is higher for the contracts with higher liquidity (immediacy) risk captured by the moneyness (the difference between the strike prices and the spot price) and the volatility of the underlying. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:544–562, 2009