Evaluating capital mobility in the EU: a new approach using swaps data

The level of capital mobility prevailing within a group of core European Union (EU) countries is evaluated by means of cointegration-based tests of the covered interest parity (CIP). Unlike previous studies, this one concentrates on long maturities, investigating three to ten-year assets, and employing swap rates as a means of covering foreign exchange risk. Although CIP has not been previously assessed for EU long-term interest rates, such evaluation has practical interest. In fact, given EU member states' scarcity of mechanisms to react to asymmetric shocks, financial markets may become one major source of adjustment and stabilization. To this end, it is the mobility of long-term capital that is of critical importance. The analysis in this paper suggests that long-term financial flows appear to be completely unrestrained only between domestic Dutch and German markets.     

Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt

In this paper, we analyze the determinants and effects of credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation in the sovereign bond market. CDS trading initiation is associated with a 30–150 basis point reduction in sovereign bond yields, with greater yield reductions accruing to higher default risk economies. For countries with high default risk, rated B or lower by Standard and Poor’s, CDS initiation is also associated with significant price efficiency benefits in the underlying market. CDS trading initiation is more likely following increases in local equity index volatility, index spreads for regional and global CDS markets, or depreciation of the local currency relative to the US dollar, and decreases in a country’s ability to service foreign debt. Our results are robust to selection bias controls based on these factors.     

The effect of stock-for-debt swaps on bank holding companies

Twenty-two of the numerous stock-for-debt swaps that have taken place since August 1981 have been by bank holding companies. Although the most oft-quoted reason for making the swap is its positive effect on reported earnings, we argue that the effects of the Bankruptcy Tax Act of 1980 on the tax treatment of early retirement of discount debt often makes stock-for-debt swaps a preferable alternative to cash repurchases of discount debt for sinking fund obligations. Furthermore, for bank holding companies, the swaps allow them to adjust their capital positions to new optimal levels ad dictated by the more stringent capital standards promulgated by the regulatory authorities in 1981. For 99 non-banking firms we found a significant and negative abnormal average return on the swap announcement date of ?0.49 percent. For the 22 bank holding companies, however, we found no significant abnormal average return on the announcement date of the swaps. The results suggest that swaps may be reducing the potential costs of regulatory interference for bank holding companies if they are overlevered, which offsets whatever other force is driving down stock prices on new issue announcement dates.     

资本市场锚定效应的实证方法及检验

本文简要总结了资本市场中锚定现象的特征,探讨了对锚定实证的方法,并以我国实行询价制5年来上市公司IPO定价中的锚定效应为例进行了实证,发现我国中小板与创业板上市公司IPO定价对市盈率、市净率的锚定效应明显,但两板块锚定目标有差异,中小板紧密锚定于市盈率,而创业板紧密锚定于市净率。     

The robustness of the Sarbanes Oxley effect on the U.S. capital market

We examine the incidence of new listings and delistings on U.S. stock exchanges and firms’ propensity to delist, as a function of general market conditions, firm fundamentals, and the costs of compliance with the Sarbanes Oxley Act (SOX). We find that both general market conditions and firm fundamentals explain the delisting incidence and firms’ delisting decisions; while SOX variables are positively associated with firms’ delisting likelihood only when general market conditions are not included in the analyses. Further analyses on the population partitioned into size quintiles suggest that the passage of SOX was not associated with an increase in the likelihood of delisting for any size quintile of firms and that the implementation of SOX section 404 is positively associated with the delisting likelihood for midsized and larger firms. Our empirical evidence is useful to regulators as they consider changes in the imposition and implementation of SOX section 404.     

The impact of imposing capital requirements on systemic risk

This paper examines the impact of imposing capital requirements on systemic risk. We use a static model on financial institutions’ risk-taking behavior to quantify the systemic risk in the cross-sectional dimension in both regulated and unregulated systems. Although imposing a capital requirement can lower individual risk, it simultaneously enhances systemic linkage within the system. By using a proper systemic risk measure combining both individual risk and systemic linkage, we show that systemic risk in a regulated system can be higher than that in an unregulated system. In addition, we analyze a sufficient condition under which the systemic risk in a regulated system is always lower.     

The welfare cost of bank capital requirements

Capital requirements are the cornerstone of modern bank regulation, yet little is known about their welfare cost. This paper measures this cost and finds that it is surprisingly large. I present a simple framework, which embeds the role of liquidity creating banks in an otherwise standard general equilibrium growth model. A capital requirement limits the moral hazard on the part of banks that arises due to deposit insurance. However, this capital requirement is also costly because it reduces the ability of banks to create liquidity. The key insight is that equilibrium asset returns reveal the strength of households’ preferences for liquidity and this allows for the derivation of a simple formula for the welfare cost of capital requirements that is a function of observable variables only. Using US data, the welfare cost of current capital adequacy regulation is found to be equivalent to a permanent loss in consumption of between 0.1% and 1%.     

基于协调的保险市场与资本市场对接模式研究

本文通过比较美、英、日、德四国的对接模式发现,保险市场与资本市场的和谐对接是资金、产品和制度对接三方面的共融体,是金融市场自然演进与风险资本动态规制的最优范式结合。基于此,我国应在经济、金融微观制度基础变迁的基础上适时选择适合我国国情的可操作和可持续的对接模式。     

The cyclical effects of the Basel II capital requirements

Capital requirements play a key role in the supervision and regulation of banks. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is in the process of changing the current framework by introducing risk sensitive capital charges. Some fear that this will unduly increase the volatility of regulatory capital. Furthermore, by limiting the banks’ ability to lend, capital requirements may exacerbate an economic downturn. The paper examines the problem of capital-induced lending cycles and their pro-cyclical effect on the macroeconomy in greater detail. It finds that the capital buffer that banks hold on top of the required minimum capital plays a crucial role in mitigating the impact of the volatility of capital requirements.     

让资本市场在废墟上运行——中国证监会主席尚福林慰问地震灾区支持上市公司灾后重建纪实

汶川大地震使四川境内的上市公司遭受重大损失,有些证券交易所倒塌,正常的交易行为受到一定程度的影响,对此,中国证监会主席尚福林高度重视,于6月4日到四川实地查看证券期货经营机构、上市公司的受灾情况。     

资本市场的悲剧

资本市场的悲剧不在于狼的凶残,资本市场的悲剧在于羊的天真：羊居然以为自己可以与狼去斗法,与狼去博弈,结果悲剧便发生了     

要深刻反思资本市场发展历程

2015年是中国股市跌宕起伏的一年,6月15日,在经历了长达半年的“杠杆牛市”之后,A股股指急速走低,之后的20天里又出现九次千股跌停,市场流动性间歇性枯竭,恐慌情绪蔓延,融资功能中断,交易功能部分冻结,妨碍了资本市场基本功能的发挥,给资本市场、投资者、发行人造成了伤害。全国政协委员、中国投资有限责任公司首席风险官、原中央汇金投资公司副总经理赵海英在接受《国际融资》记者采访时,从行业专家视角,为我们分析了造成这种情况的原因,并提出从建章立制、多元化投资者结构（改造“盐碱地”）到建立统一领导的跨部门危机处理协调机制等建议。     

点评“新国九条”-“新国九条”新在哪儿？

《国务院关于进一步促进资本市场健康发展的若干意见》（简称＂新国九条＂）于2014年5月9日公布,引起了市场舆论广泛关注。＂新国九条＂与十年前的＂国九条＂进行对比分析,＂新国九条＂的新意在哪儿？请看本栏目文章《＂新国九条＂新在哪儿？》、《＂新国九条＂基本原则的解读与思考》。如何评价＂新国九条＂的作用？     

The effect of capital market pressures on the association between R&;D spending and CEO option compensation

We examine the effect of capital market pressures for meeting earnings benchmarks on the relationship between R&D spending and CEO option compensation. We consider a particular scenario when firms face small earnings declines but could opportunistically reduce R&D spending to increase reported earnings. We find that firms with income reporting concerns punish their CEOs with lower option compensation when R&D spending increases but reported earnings decreases. Further, for firms with income reporting concerns, we find that the penalty for increasing R&D is greater when the firms frequently miss quarterly earnings benchmarks in the year. Overall, our findings suggest that the adverse consequence on CEO options encourages short-run compensation-motivated actions to eliminate or postpone R&D projects with positive net present values.     

The impact of international listings on risk : Implications for capital market integration

In this paper, we examine the impact of international listing on common-stock risk. While previous research has used event study methodology, our research focuses on permanent shifts in risk. Different measures of risk are estimated to test for intertemporal shifts in risk attributable to an overseas listing. No significant shifts in risk from international listing are documented. The results are robust with respect to the location and year of listing. These findings suggest that: (1) markets are already reasonably well integrated; or (2) listing is an ineffective mechanism for reducing segmentation.     

“新国九条”是直接融资的号角

到2020年,基本形成结构合理、功能完善、规范透明、稳健高效、开放包容的多层次资本市场体系。扩大直接融资比重是中国金融改革的重要方向,建立高效而活跃的股权、债权、期权、产权市场     

国内资本市场开放路径选择

全球性的投资机会正向中国转移,外资急需进入国内A股市场,未来中国金融市场开放的路径选择包括证券机构合资提速、国内市场准入加快、金融衍生品和创新业务开放等方面。