Inventor networks in emerging key technologies: information technology vs. semiconductors

This paper analyzes the development of the German knowledge base measured by co-classifications of patents by German inventors and relate this technological development to changes in the structure of the underlying inventor networks. The central hypothesis states that technologies that become more central to the knowledge base are also characterized by a higher connectedness of the inventor network. The theoretical considerations are exemplified in a comparative study of two patenting fields—information technology and semiconductors. It turns out that information technology shows the highest increases in patents, but only a moderate move towards the center of the knowledge base. By contrast, semiconductors develops towards a key technology, despite a moderate increase in the number of patents. The dynamic analysis of inventor networks in both fields shows an increasing connectedness and the emergence of a large component in semiconductors, but not in information technology, which is in line with the expectations.     

The determinants of investment in information and communication technologies

In this paper, we assess the determinants of information and communication technology (ICT) investment at the macro-level, for a panel of 10 advanced countries, in the period 1992–2005. We investigate the idea that, since ICTs are general purpose technologies, the decision to invest in these technologies is strongly affected by the general business environment in which the investment takes place. The empirical results are consistent with this idea: facilitating factors such as changes in market regulation, amount of human capital, expenditure on R&D, and the share of the dynamic services sector in the economy, positively influence investment in ICT.     

Boosting the spread of new technologies: an integrative propositional analysis of diffusion policies

ABSTRACT

Although many studies have recognised the importance of defining specific public policies to encourage technology diffusion, many authors fail to provide a clear view about either the policies that affect the diffusion of technologies or the effect of the different political instruments. Adopting a content analysis of papers that directly or indirectly refer to the diffusion of a new technology, this study applies the integrative propositional analysis (IPA) methodology to: (a) identify the repertoire of the different diffusion policies identified by previous studies; (b) classify these policies according to the type of instruments that they use; (c) analyse the impact of each policy on the different adoption factors that may inhibit or foster the diffusion of a new technology; and (d) evaluate the scope of each type of policy in terms of the number of affected adoption factors.     

Technology clustering based on evolutionary patterns: The case of information and communications technologies

Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution.     

Black Education: Myths and Tragedies

This article explores elements of apologetics in conventional economics. It argues that much of the latter is apologetics in the form of the ideology or utopia of laissez-faire, and many of its representatives are apologists of the latter. The article first examines instances of unconditional laissez-faire apologetics and extreme apologists. Then it presents cases of qualified laissez-faire apologetics and moderate apologists. Lastly, it identifies some examples of laissez-faire non- and anti-apologetics and critics expressing discontent with apologetic economics. The article aims to contribute to a fuller understanding of the relationship between economics and social science overall and ideology, politics, and related non-scientific elements.     

Environmental impact, quality, and price: Consumer trade-offs and the development of environmentally friendly technologies

The paper examines the effect of heterogeneous consumer trade-offs - between environmental performance, quality of service characteristics, and price - on the generation and diffusion of environmentally benign technology paradigms. We find that the direction, timing, and environmental impact of new paradigms is shaped by the distribution of consumer trade-offs. Of key importance are the initial distributions of consumer preferences, and how those distributions evolve over time. This has serious implications on environmental pollution, and for policy makers seeking to influence the ‘greening’ of consumer demand.     

The Hartwick Rule: Myths and Facts

We shed light on the Hartwick rule for capital accumulation and resource depletion by providing semantic clarifications and investigating the implications and relevance of this rule. We extend earlier results by establishing that the Hartwick rule does not indicate sustainability and does not require substitutability between man-made and naturalcapital. We use a new class of simple counterexamples (i) to obtain the novel finding that a negative value of net investments need not entail that utility is unsustainable, and (ii) to point out deficiencies in the literature.     

Computer conferencing: Assessing the social impact of a new communications medium

Computer conferencing is a new communications technology which will affect the efficiency and quality of decision-making processes within existing groups and institutions. By removing most of the barriers to communication created by space and time, it may also facilitate the emergence of new life styles and organizational forms. However, like most technological advances, it is liable to have dysfunctions as well as advantages. A review of the literature on small group communications experiments serves as the basis for deriving a set of hypotheses about the effects of computer conferencing upon interaction processes within problem-solving groups. The uniqueness of this form of communication and the convenience offered suggest that it will ultimately have significant impacts at the societal level. Planned strategies for testing these hypotheses through field trials, surveys, and laboratory experiments are described.     

Exploratory analysis of the impact of information dynamics on innovation diffusion

Understanding the dynamic nature of innovation diffusion processes, and mechanisms underlying these dynamics is crucial, since such an understanding is potentially very important in designing effective innovation support policies and developing better diffusion forecasts. The role of information diffusion in conditioning the diffusion dynamics of an innovation is the locus of this study. In order to investigate this, a simulation model that distinguishes between the real attributes of the innovation and their perceived levels by the user groups has been developed. The model makes it possible to separately trace the diffusion dynamics of innovation and the information about an innovation. Additionally, the formulation of the model enables the message broadcasted via word-of-mouth to change in nature from positive to negative, or vice versa. This generic model is used in an exploratory way, which is discussed as a novel approach for conducting a simulation-based analysis. Such an exploration covers a wide range of plausible diffusion behaviors, and aims to demonstrate the extent to which information imperfections and dynamics may influence the diffusion process. During experiments it is observed that information imperfections as well as the pace of learning processes may yield significant changes in the diffusion patterns. These changes may be in the form of altering the basic characteristics of the well-known S-shaped diffusion curve, as well as stopping the diffusion at much lower levels than full adoption. The analysis presented in the article shows that exploratory analysis is a promising way to utilize simulation models for developing general insights about dynamics processes.     

A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology

The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.     

Universities and information technologies for instructional programmew issues and potential impacts

Information technologies will haw an increasing impact on many components of post-secondary education. lhese new technologies, will drive major changes in instructional progammes and learning environments; both on and off campuses. Recent publications on current applications and possible future transformations in the instructional areal are reviewed in this paper. Creative utilization of infirmation technologies can help with many of the issues currenth facing universities—finances, educational content, outreach, retention, time-to-degree, delivery options, assessment, internationalization and K-12 (pre-college) interactions. Paradigm that are possible with educational technologies have generated and will continue to generate increased competition in the education market-place. Those who choose to ignore the new players will do so at their peril.     

The impacts of advanced information and communication technologies on international actors and the international system

New infomation and communication technologies have the potential to play a significant role in changing today's major international actors and in shaping the international system that is emerging after the end of the Cold War. This paper assesses the impacts that secen different information and communication technologies may have on specific types of actors in the international system, including states international governmental organizations, non-governmental organizations and multinational corporations. The paper then assesses the impact that these technologies might be expected to have on the international system itself.     

Use of decision modeling for substitution analysis: Application to acceptance of new electricity-generating technologies

Substitution theory is a trend forecasting technique which purports to forecast the rate of replacement of one product or technology for another. Most existing methods describe substitutions in which one item is substituting for another. The rate of substitution is usually determined by an S-shaped function based mainly on the rate of the substitution in its early stages. This paper presents an alternative approach, decision modeling, which not only expands the area of application to multiple substitutions occuring simultaneously but can also treat cases where new substitutions have not yet begun. An application to the substitution of new electricity generating technologies is discussed in detail.     

The impact of risk aversion on information transmission between firms

This paper investigates whether and to what extent the presence of risk aversion affects the welfare implications of information transmission in one of the most fundamental oligopoly models—a Cournot duopoly model with common demand uncertainty. It aims to make a bridge between the literature dealing with information sharing in oligopoly and the one discussing the firm under uncertainty. We can show that the average output level of each firm is quite sensitive to the type and amount of information, and that the presence of risk aversion has an effect of decreasing the welfare of firms, whence information transmission may sometimes be harmful rather than beneficial to risk averse firms. These results have some policy implications.We are indebted to Hirofumi Uzawa, Masao Fukuoka, Ryuzo Sato, Koichi Hamada, Michihiro Ohyama, Kunio Kawamata, Yasunori Ishii, Noboru Sakashita, Koji Okuguchi, and Masamichi Kawano for useful comments and discussions. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Japan Association of Economic Theory and Econometrics, University of Tsukuba, October 1989, and at the Keio Conference on Market Mechanism and Industrial Organization, Hakone, November 1989. Any errors which may remain are our sole responsibility. Partial financial help from the Tokyo Council for Economic Research, New York University, and the Ministry of Education, Grant C-01530001 is gratefully acknowledged.     

Towards governance of human tissue engineered technologies in Europe: Framing the case for a new regulatory regime

The development of human tissue engineered technologies, located in the context of wider debates around the governance of biotechnology, raises important issues. This paper explores these issues by examining theoretical approaches to the regulation of risk, the limits of technical risk assessment and implications of scientific uncertainty in this area. We consider broader social concerns and how these shape contemporary debates relating to the sourcing and use of human tissue-engineered technologies. We examine the emergence of a new regulatory ‘regime’ in Europe and the social shaping of a regulatory space between medicinal products, medical devices and biologics where these innovative products may be situated. Reporting on recent policy initiatives and a survey of regulatory authorities in Europe, we analyse the ways in which public trust in these technologies may be engendered, providing insight into public participation in policy debate and relations between industry and the regulatory state at national and European levels.     

发展文化产业 叫响文化品牌

济源市坚持"文化立市"、科学规划布局、打造文化精品、兴建文化"地标",以发展文化产业。未来济源市须构建一个总体布局、叫响一大品牌、开发三大重点文化资源,同时,要深化文化体制改革、以项目建设推动文化产业发展、完善文化产业投融资服务体系、培育新兴文化业态、加强文化人才队伍建设。