Forecasting the impact of new technologies on the future job market

This paper examines recent occupational projections in order to determine how new technologies will affect future job growth in the United States. The first part of the paper reviews the methodologies used to derive occupational projections, focusing on how adjustments for technological change are incorporated into the forecasts. The second part of the paper reviews the most recent projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and compares them with projections produced by other organizations. The results reveal that neither high-technology industries nor high-technology occupations will supply many new jobs over the next decade. Instead, future job growth will favor service and clerical jobs that require little or no postsecondary schooling and that pay below-average wages.     

The diffusion of new information technologies and productivity growth

This paper investigates the effects of the rates of diffusion of the cluster of new information technologies on the growth of output and total factor productivity in the main OCED and industrializing countries in the late eighties. This diffusion approach contrasts the technology production function framework. It predicts that the rates of generation of new technologies are much less effective than the rates of diffusion and the investment efforts in determining the growth of labor productivity especially when capital-intensive technologies which command high levels of investments are considered. The results make it possible to elaborate and assess empirically the notion of key-technologies that provide positive externalities to the rest of the system.A preliminary version of this paper has been presented at the European Conference of the International Telecommunications Society held at the Stenungsbaden Yacht Club.     

Evaluating the employment impact of information technology

The developments and continuing rapid advances in computer and communications technologies, together with the associated drastic decline in the cost of computation and of information processing have had a major impact on industry structure and on economic developments in the past several years, and can be expected to exert an at least equivalent if not greater influence in the future. Precisely what these consequences have been or will be, however, is something no one really knows. This paper develops a framework for research aimed at providing answers to these difficult questions and considers as an example the introduction of new electronic technologies in banking.     

The impact of old technologies on innovation: the case of the US biotechnology industry

This paper investigates the implications of a technology sourcing strategy maintaining a focus on the rediscovery of old technologies. Specifically, we study the different impact exerted by old technological solutions, distinguished on the basis of their organisational and industrial origins, on the innovation value. We develop a set of hypotheses about the impact exerted by four distinct types of old technological solutions (firm core technological heritage, firm lateral technological heritage, competitors’ technological heritage and others’ technological heritage) and test them on a sample of 1189 biotechnology patents registered at the US Patent and Trademark Office from 1979 to 2002. Results strongly support our hypotheses, revealing that: (1) using both firm core technological heritage and others’ technological heritage has an inverted U-shaped effect on innovation value; (2) employing firm lateral technological heritage is positively related to innovation value; (3) a negative relationship occurs between competitors’ core technological heritage and the value of subsequent innovations.     

The impact of cultural exceptions: audiovisual services trade and trade policy

Audiovisual services such as music and movies in digital formats have gained substantial importance over the last decade, while remaining one of the sectors with the lowest number of commitments by WTO members. Based on a novel data set, this article analyses the role of trade restrictions on audiovisual services in a gravity model. We find that countries with WTO commitments trade more audiovisual services, while both exports and imports are lower for countries which impose policies to curb inflows of foreign cultural services.     

The economic impact of digital technologies in Europe

This paper analyses the economic impact of digital technologies in Europe distinguishing between different stages/domains of the digitalization process. A set of composite Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) indicators is used for capturing the access to ICTs, the ability to use them and the digital empowerment of individuals in key social and economic domains. We argue that the mere accessibility to ICT facilities is only a pre-condition for moving towards a digitalized society, while the ‘level’ and the ‘quality’ in the use of these technologies, as well as the conditions facilitating or hampering digital empowerment, play a much more important role. Several transmission mechanisms from ICT access, usage and digital empowerment to key macro-economic variables (namely labour productivity, gross domestic product per capita, employment growth and the employment rate) are identified. The econometric evidence supports our hypotheses showing that the usage of ICT, and mostly digital empowerment, exert the major economic effects, especially on employment also favouring the inclusion of ‘disadvantaged’ groups in the labour market. We conclude that digitalization may drive productivity and employment growth and that inclusive policies may effectively contribute to bridge the gap between the most favoured and the disadvantaged parts of the population, thus helping in achieving the 2020 Europe targets.     

From information society to biosociety? On societal waves, developing key technologies, and new professions

The article discusses the possible societal transition from information society toward biosociety. Furthermore, the impacts of this possible transition on professional and educational branches (PEBs) are examined. It is based on the study completed in Lahti Center at the Helsinki University of Technology between years 2001-2003. In the study, the most important developing key technologies were defined and their impacts on professions analysed through the application of Delphi technique. The developing key technology groups were information and communication technology, biotechnology, and material and nanotechnology. In addition, combinations of these technologies, that is, so-called fusion technologies, were also subjects for analysis. The first empirical aim was to analyse the plausibility and the timing of the so-called technological theses. The following technologies (technological theses) were deemed to be the most important ones: highly selective drugs, sensors, integrated technology, biomedical materials, photonic materials, 3G technology, intelligent materials, diagnostics, and virtual reality. The second empirical objective of the study was to analyze the professional and educational impacts of these technologies. Moreover, the article takes an experimental glance into the future through the creation and evaluation of “future professions”.     

Inventor networks in emerging key technologies: information technology vs. semiconductors

This paper analyzes the development of the German knowledge base measured by co-classifications of patents by German inventors and relate this technological development to changes in the structure of the underlying inventor networks. The central hypothesis states that technologies that become more central to the knowledge base are also characterized by a higher connectedness of the inventor network. The theoretical considerations are exemplified in a comparative study of two patenting fields—information technology and semiconductors. It turns out that information technology shows the highest increases in patents, but only a moderate move towards the center of the knowledge base. By contrast, semiconductors develops towards a key technology, despite a moderate increase in the number of patents. The dynamic analysis of inventor networks in both fields shows an increasing connectedness and the emergence of a large component in semiconductors, but not in information technology, which is in line with the expectations.     

The determinants of investment in information and communication technologies

In this paper, we assess the determinants of information and communication technology (ICT) investment at the macro-level, for a panel of 10 advanced countries, in the period 1992–2005. We investigate the idea that, since ICTs are general purpose technologies, the decision to invest in these technologies is strongly affected by the general business environment in which the investment takes place. The empirical results are consistent with this idea: facilitating factors such as changes in market regulation, amount of human capital, expenditure on R&D, and the share of the dynamic services sector in the economy, positively influence investment in ICT.     

Converging technologies at the nanoscale: The making of a new world?

The design of artefacts commonly involves the convergence of many technologies and this remains true for artefacts being created at the nanoscale. However, since 2000 the phrase 'converging technologies' has acquired a special interpretation related to the convergence of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science (acronym NBIC) for the improvement of 'human performance', raising the visibility of what has colloquially been called 'nanotechnology'. Exaggerated forecasts soon followed for the value of innovatory markets for nano-artefacts or artefacts highly dependent on the various emergent nanoscale technologies. Many of these activities have resulted from a creative collision between chemistry and biology, and engineering and physics, especially where the latter have been related to micromechanical devices and electronics. The outcome has been rising expectations that the field, now designated as converging technologies, may be the beginnings of a 'new world' within a notional time horizon of 2030. The paper considers the possibility, feasibility and desirability of nanoscale artefacts (nano-artefacts) in contributing to a 'new world'. By distinguishing between nano-artefacts and nanotechnology, some of the more unrealistic expectations surrounding the possibilities can be discouraged, facilitating investment decisions by business and informed debate by stakeholders regarding the future development and diffusion of nano-artefacts. The paper concludes that nano-artefacts are likely to have pervasive, radical effects by 2030, particularly in the fields that underpin life on the planet, including energy and food and the possibility of improving human performance. However, the effects are unlikely to be on the scale seen in the industrial revolution.     

Boosting the spread of new technologies: an integrative propositional analysis of diffusion policies

ABSTRACT

Although many studies have recognised the importance of defining specific public policies to encourage technology diffusion, many authors fail to provide a clear view about either the policies that affect the diffusion of technologies or the effect of the different political instruments. Adopting a content analysis of papers that directly or indirectly refer to the diffusion of a new technology, this study applies the integrative propositional analysis (IPA) methodology to: (a) identify the repertoire of the different diffusion policies identified by previous studies; (b) classify these policies according to the type of instruments that they use; (c) analyse the impact of each policy on the different adoption factors that may inhibit or foster the diffusion of a new technology; and (d) evaluate the scope of each type of policy in terms of the number of affected adoption factors.     

Black Education: Myths and Tragedies

This article explores elements of apologetics in conventional economics. It argues that much of the latter is apologetics in the form of the ideology or utopia of laissez-faire, and many of its representatives are apologists of the latter. The article first examines instances of unconditional laissez-faire apologetics and extreme apologists. Then it presents cases of qualified laissez-faire apologetics and moderate apologists. Lastly, it identifies some examples of laissez-faire non- and anti-apologetics and critics expressing discontent with apologetic economics. The article aims to contribute to a fuller understanding of the relationship between economics and social science overall and ideology, politics, and related non-scientific elements.     

Technology clustering based on evolutionary patterns: The case of information and communications technologies

Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution.     

Adoption of health information technologies: the case of a wireless monitor for diabetes and obesity patients

This paper explores what determines the adoption of health information technologies through the use of a case study of a wireless service prototype developed for patients with diabetes and obesity. A technology acceptance model was used as the basis for developing the theoretical framework, which was later tested through a field study. Results indicated that the usefulness of an e-health service was affected by the quality of service, its compatibility with users’ lifestyle, the quality of support, the quality of information presented in the service, usage time, image, accessibility, and ease-of-use characteristics of the service. Designers should develop services that do not require much usage time as users do not want to spend much time using the service. In addition, users should be able to access data presented in the service quickly and easily when they need it. Customisable menu items and short cut keys can be used to make data access quick and easy.     

Environmental impact, quality, and price: Consumer trade-offs and the development of environmentally friendly technologies

The paper examines the effect of heterogeneous consumer trade-offs - between environmental performance, quality of service characteristics, and price - on the generation and diffusion of environmentally benign technology paradigms. We find that the direction, timing, and environmental impact of new paradigms is shaped by the distribution of consumer trade-offs. Of key importance are the initial distributions of consumer preferences, and how those distributions evolve over time. This has serious implications on environmental pollution, and for policy makers seeking to influence the ‘greening’ of consumer demand.     

The Hartwick Rule: Myths and Facts

We shed light on the Hartwick rule for capital accumulation and resource depletion by providing semantic clarifications and investigating the implications and relevance of this rule. We extend earlier results by establishing that the Hartwick rule does not indicate sustainability and does not require substitutability between man-made and naturalcapital. We use a new class of simple counterexamples (i) to obtain the novel finding that a negative value of net investments need not entail that utility is unsustainable, and (ii) to point out deficiencies in the literature.     

The impact of vertical integration on the wage bargain: new evidence

This paper considers the impact of vertical integration on the bargaining power relationship between employers and workers. We argue that vertical integration may have either a positive or a negative effect on the employer's position. The relationship between vertical integration of the firm and wages remains, therefore, an empirical question which this paper sets out to resolve. We do this using regression analysis and by employing a new measure of vertical integration. Our results suggest that contrary to the evidence of some previous studies, vertical integration can enhance employer bargaining power.