A model of industrial hollowing-out of neighboring countries by the economic growth of China

Our model is a multi-sectoral version of Romer's variety expansion model that reveals the presense of industrial hollowing-out. The basic idea of the model is similar to that of Lucas [Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1993, “Making a Miracle.” Econometrica 61, p. 273–302.]. An increase in (external) social experience capital through learning by doing raises labor productivity. It also increases the social capacity to adopt more technology-intensive goods. The model provides the following implications: First, even though the economic growth of China raises the exports of low-level technology goods from neighboring countries to China in the short run, this can lower their future growth potential by lowering the accumulation of social experience capital. Second, without increasing social capacity to adopt more technology-intensive goods, those countries can experience industrial hollowing-out, lower equilibrium wage rates, and a higher unemployment rate. Third, as with conclusions garnered by standard geography models, both a huge market size and very low-level wages in China imply a continuation of discontinuous and lumpy loss of jobs and sectors. In this context, various policies to raise social capacity, besides retraining programs and unemployment safety nets, should be provided by the government to avoid industrial hollowing-out and to allocate labor efficiently.     

Capital gains

We analyze a simple overlapping-generations model with two capital goods. The dynamical system is defined by savings behavior and short-run perfect-foresight asset-market clearing. Because lifetimes are finite, there is no transversality condition. If there is a bubble in asset pricing, it will burst in finite time: expectations will eventually be frustrated, but this might take several generations. This raises the question of whether (infinite) long-run perfect foresight is a reasonable assumption for overlapping-generations economies and, hence, whether bursting bubbles can occur in equilibrium.     

Endogenous business cycles and dynamic inefficiency

This paper explores how the occurrence of local indeterminacy and endogenous business cycles relates to dynamic inefficiency, as defined by Malinvaud (1953), Phelps (1965) and Cass (1972). We follow Reichlin (1986) and Grandmont (1993) by considering a two-period overlapping generations model of capital accumulation with labor–leisure choice into the first-period of an agent's life and consumption in both periods. We first show that local indeterminacy and Hopf bifurcation are necessarily associated with a capital–labor ratio that is, at steady state, larger than the Golden Rule level. Consequently, paths converging asymptotically towards the steady state are shown to be dynamically inefficient, as there always exists another trajectory that starts with the same initial conditions and produces more aggregate consumption at all future dates. More surprising, however, is our main result showing that stable orbits, generated around a dynamically inefficient steady state through a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, may, in contrast, be dynamically efficient.     

International capital market integration: Implications for convergence, growth, and welfare

This paper studies the effects of international capital market integration on welfare and the speed of adjustment in a two-region endogenous growth model. Monopolistic firms undertake research and development (R&D) to improve their productivity level. National and international knowledge spillovers affect the returns to R&D. The two countries differ with respect to the initial productivity level and R&D capability (which is a proxy for human capital and structural policies). Long-run productivity gaps are determined by the difference in R&D capability. Over time, there is conditional convergence in productivity levels. The speed of convergence is larger with integrated international capital markets than without. Long-run gaps in consumption levels are larger in the former situation than in the latter. Capital market integration harms (benefits) the leading (lagging) region if domestic spillovers are more important than international spillovers and differences in R&D capabilities are small.The authors research is supported by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. He thanks Lucas Bretschger, Theo van de Klundert, and Richard Nahuis, Thomas Steger, and Helmut Wagner for comments on an earlier version.     

On Comparing Cash Flow and Accrual Accounting Models for Use in Equity Valuation: A Response to Lundholm and O'Keefe (CAR,Summer 2001)*

A claim is commonly made that cash flow and accrual accounting methods for valuing equities must always yield equivalent valuations. A recent paper by Lundholm and O'Keefe 2001, for example, claims that, because of this equivalence, there is nothing to be learned from empirical comparison of valuation models. So they dismiss recent research that has shown that accrual accounting residual income models and earnings capitalization models perform, over a range of conditions, better than cash flow or dividend discount models. This paper demonstrates, with examples, that the claim is misguided. Practice inevitably involves forecasting over finite, truncated horizons, and the accounting specified in a model — cash versus accrual accounting in particular — is pertinent to valuation with finite‐horizon forecasting. Indeed, the issue of choosing a valuation model is an issue of specifying pro forma accounting, and so, for finite‐horizon forecasts, one cannot be indifferent to the accounting.     

Persistent differences in national productivity growth rates with a common technology and free capital mobility: The roles of private thrift, public debt, capital taxation, and policy toward human capital formation

The paper develops a two-country endogenous growth model to investigate possible causes for the existence and persistence of productivity growth differentials between nations despite a common technology, constant returns to scale, and perfect international capital mobility. Private consumption is derived from a three-period overlapping generations specification. The source of productivity (growth) differentials in our model is the existence of a nontraded capital good (“human capital”) whose augmentation requires a nontraded current input (time spent by the young in education rather than leisure). We consider the influence on productivity growth differentials of private thrift, public debt, the taxation of capital and savings, and policy toward human capital formation.     

The effect of uncertain returns on human capital investment patterns

This paper formalizes a human capital model with a dynamic and uncertain rental rate of human capital. As a result, investment in human capital may no longer decline monotonically over time as is predicted by the standard Ben-Porath version of the human capital model. This model provides a plausible, theoretical explanation for the recent trend of investment in higher education later in the life cycle which is consistent with the empirically established, increasing returns to education.     

Growth,resource extraction and production in a small open economy

Summary and Conclusions This paper analyzed the optimal growth of a resource exporting economy in the framework of a Ramsey-type model. Two versions of the same model are used. In the first version (where the aggregate production function uses the conventional inputs, namely labor and capital) it was shown that along the optimal paths the resource would be exhausted in finite time and that the economy approaches asymptotically the modified golden rule capital intensity, well known from one-sector growth theory. Subsequently the impact of the changes in resource prices on the rate of extraction are investigated by considering an exponentially rising price.In the second version of the model, the resource extracted is divided between domestic production (the aggregate output of the economy is produced by means of labor, capital and the resource input) and export. Under this assumption, it is demonstrated that when the relative price of the resource is constant and given exogenously, the opening of trade (i.e., resource exports) depends on the relative magnitudes of the marginal product of the resource and its price. Furthermore the paper showed that even if trade opens, resource extraction for export will come to an end in finite time. After the economy stops exporting the resource, its optimal growth will be determined simultaneously by the elasticity of substitution between capital and the resource input and the dynamic behavior of the marginal product of the resource input, as explained in detail by Dasgupta and Heal [1974]. Finally, when the resource price has an exponential trend, resource extraction will continue both for domestic production and export purposes.     

谈谈有限与无限的辩证关系

某物之所以为某物,是由于其内在规定性,这个规定也就构成了它的界限、有限性。然而事物由于其内在的矛盾必然要向前发展,这样它就势必会冲破自身的界限否定自身从而走向无限。这个过程就是事物由有限升入无限的过程,也是事物扬弃自身转变为他物的过程,这是一个无限的过程。任何事物在自身的发展过程中都是无限与有限的统一体,是有限,同时也是无限,这就是有限与无限之间的辩证法。     

Sunspots and Hopf bifurcations in continuous time endogenous growth models

First we treat a three-dimensional continuous time abstract stationary model that includes one predetermined variable and two non-predetermined variables. We construct stationary sunspot equilibria in this model under the following two alternative conditions: (i) a steady state has two stable roots and one unstable root; and (ii) A closed orbit has a two-dimensional manifold on which it is asymptotically stable. Next, we apply these results to the models due to Lucas and Romer that undergo Hopf bifurcations for some parameter values. We construct sunspot equilibria in these models.     

Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis*

There is a general consensus that human capital is a major factor behind long‐run economic growth. Yet, on a macro level, the empirical results do not always seem to concur with this view. To explain this gap between theory and empirics, more focus has been laid on measurement error and data quality. Using an alternative estimate of the stock of human capital, based on Judson (2002), we find evidence that the two major views on the role of human capital in economic development by Lucas (1988) and Romer (1990) coexist and are by no means mutually exclusive. Using a Johansen cointegration test, we find that in India and Indonesia the level of human capital is cointegrated with the level of aggregate income during the whole 20th century, which confirms the theory of Lucas (1988). In Japan, however, the Lucasian approach can be verified only for the first half of the century, while after 1950 there is cointegration between the growth rate of aggregate income and the level of human capital, which is in line with Romer's view.     

教育公共投入与收入差距的波及效应

在对城乡教育公共投入差异的分析基础上,运用卢卡斯的新经济增长理论框架,采用面板数据常用的固定效应模型估计人力资本及其外溢效应对城乡收入差异的影响。实证研究发现,人力资本对城乡收入增长均有较强的促进作用,且农村人力资本的产出弹性明显高于城市。但与城市相比,农村人力资本的外溢效应偏低,这在一定程度上拉大了业已存在的城乡差距。     

On the principle of optimality for nonstationary deterministic dynamic programming

This note considers a general nonstationary infinite‐horizon optimization problem in discrete time. We allow the state space in each period to be an arbitrary set, and the return function in each period to be unbounded. We do not require discounting, nor do we require the constraint correspondence in each period to be nonempty‐valued. The objective function is defined as the limit superior or inferior of the finite sums of return functions. We show that the sequence of time‐indexed value functions satisfies the Bellman equation if and only if its right‐hand side is well defined; that is, it does not involve ?∞+ ∞.     

Note on global dynamics and imbalance effects in the Lucas–Uzawa model

In the traditional literature on the Lucas–Uzawa model, it is proved that in the so‐called normal parametric case, human capital stock grows at a rate greater than its long‐run counterpart in the neighbourhood of the long‐run balanced growth path. We first prove that the claim is true outside the neighborhood of balanced growth paths. More importantly, we identify a crucial asymmetry: whatever the parametric case considered, physical capital stock always grows at a rate lower than its long‐run counterpart when the ratio of physical to human capital is above its long‐run value.     

Taxing Energy to Improve the Environment: Efficiency and Distributional Effects

We study the effects of environmental tax policy in a dynamic overlapping generations model of a small open economy with environmental quality incorporated as a durable consumption good. Raising the energy tax may yield an efficiency gain if agents care enough about the environment. The benefits are unevenly distributed across generations since capital ownership, and the capital loss induced by a tax increase, rises with age. A suitable egalitarian bond policy can be employed in order to ensure everybody gains to the same extent. With this additional instrument the optimal energy tax can be computed.     

A critique of labour values for planning

In some contemporary extensions of the Marxian model, use of labour values for purposes of socialist planning has been commended.This paper examines the validity of this type of calculation for non-capitalist economies for purposes of obtaining an allocations vector which will be optimal. The model uses a heterogeneous capital-goods model from which balanced growth allocation equations in general form are derived. The dual of these is shown to be labour values, only in a stationary state or where capital intensity is the same in all processes. In general, it is synchronised values obtained by allowing for growth (without consumption out of surplus) which form the dual of the optimal- allocation vector. A system of synchronised prices is then exhibited to take account of induced consumption, and in that case it is the dual of these which leads to optimal allocations.This paper then exhibits the inadequacy of Marxian labour values for planning purposes in a non-capitalist economy.     

Does international knowledge spillover always lead to a positive trickle down?

This paper demonstrates the negative effects of positive international knowledge spillovers on economic growth. In other words, we obtain the possibility that educational investment for human capital is crowded out under global economic growth. To this end, we assume the phenomenon of international knowledge spillover, effects of population growth on human capital accumulation, and non-unity intertemporal elasticity of substitution in an endogenous growth model along the lines developed by Arnold. This model comprises R&D activities along the lines proposed by Jones and human capital accumulation along the lines proposed by Uzawa and Lucas. The results show that even if international spillover increases, low-growth traps without human capital investment emerge in some cases, for example, an economy with a large intertemporal elasticity of substitution and a high population growth rate.     

Does Schooling Promote Economic Growth?

Abstract: This paper revisits the debate on schooling and economic growth with particular reference to the case of sub‐Saharan Africa. Following the endogenous growth model developed by Lucas (1988) that considers human capital as one factor of production and schooling as a means of human capital accumulation, two results of schooling are explicitly stated: accumulation of privately owned and publicly owned human capital. By developing a growth estimating equation containing these two types of schooling results from the model and confronting it with empirical data, the hypothesis that schooling has got growth effect is tested. The analytic result suggests that in the indicated economies, for the period covered by the study (1966–2000), schooling that leads to accumulation of publicly owned human capital is associated with per capita income growth. Likewise, the analysis provides supporting evidence for the argument that primary schooling level is more associated with growth than other levels of schooling.     

Strategic R&D investment,competitive toughness and growth

We show, within a single industry, the possibility that R&D‐investment is non‐monotonically related to competitive toughness: increasing when competition is soft and decreasing when competition is tough. This possibility results from the combination of a Schumpeterian markup squeezing effect discouraging innovation, and a concentration effect spurring innovators. It is obtained in a sectoral model where the number of innovators is random and where non‐successful investors may remain productive. The result is extended to a multisectoral stochastic endogenous growth model with overlapping generations of consumers and firms, the number of which is endogenously determined in the capital market.     

Monetary policy and dynamic efficiency in economies of overlapping generations

In an economy of overlapping generations, money, distinct from debt, provides liquidity and is dominated as a store of value. Nominal rates of interest that are low, but do not vanish, eliminate equilibrium allocations far from Pareto optimal allocations.