Informational linkage and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets: Evidence from the US–China trade dispute

This study examines the effects of the US–China trade dispute on the informational linkages and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets. Using the daily price data of four assets representing the real and financial sectors in China during 2016–2019, empirical findings suggest that the futures–spot correlations for the stock index, copper, and corn markets have increased significantly during the trade dispute. In contrast, sharp declines in the dynamic correlations between gold futures and spot markets, as gold is a safe haven asset, are observed during the event window. During uncertainty disturbance (i.e., the trade dispute), the futures–spot cointegrated relationships in the gold and corn markets are found to adjust more quickly and efficiently, whereas the correction speeds of the market deviations for the stock index and copper market are moderately slower. With the intensive integration of market expectations with uncertainty shocks, the economic shocks of trade disputes tend to remarkably improve the pricing efficiency of China's futures markets, except for the gold futures market. China's spot markets, however, seem to be more sensitive to the noise trades and information disturbances arising from the trade dispute.     

Ultra-high-frequency lead–lag relationship and information arrival

To our knowledge, this paper is the first study on the effect of information arrival on the lead–lag relationship amongst related spot instruments. Based on a large data-set of ultra-high-frequency transaction prices time-stamped to the millisecond of the S&P500 index and its two most liquid tracking ETFs, we find that their lead–lag relationship is affected by the rate of information arrival whose proxy is the unexpected trading volume of these instruments. Specifically, when information arrives, the leadership of the leading instrument may strengthen or weaken depending on whether the leading or lagging instrument responds to that information. An increase in the unexpected volume of the leader strengthens its leadership whereas an increase in the unexpected volume of the lagger weakens this leadership. In addition to the strength of leadership, an increase in the unexpected volume in response to information arrival may also have opposite effects on the lead–lag correlation coefficient depending on whether that volume increase belongs to the leader or the lagger. Finally, we find that sophisticated investors have a more significant effect on the lead–lag relationship than non-sophisticated ones.     

Does the relationship between small and large portfolios’ returns confirm the lead–lag effect? Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange

This paper investigates whether lead–lag patterns exist between small and large size portfolios constructed from stocks traded in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). We examine this relationship in both the short-run (by using the correlation-based approach of Lo and MacKinlay, 1990 and the generalised impulse response analysis by Pesaran and Shin, 1996, Pesaran and Shin, 1998) and the long-run by employing the cointegration-based methodology of Kanas and Kouretas (2005). Furthermore, upon identifying that cointegration exists we then use the estimated error correction models (ECMs) to obtain out-of-sample forecasts of small-firm portfolio returns and it is shown that these ECMs have superior forecasting performance relative to models without the error correction terms. Therefore, we were able to provide a richer exploration of the lead–lag relationships than the one obtained by standard autocorrelation and cross-correlation analysis and vector autoregression analysis. The main finding of our analysis is that a lead–lag effect between small and large size portfolios was established in both the short-run and the long-run for the Athens equity market.     

A leader of the world commodity futures markets in the making? The case of China's commodity futures

We use the daily data of 16 commodity futures contracts traded in China and corresponding foreign markets (the US, the UK, Japan, and Malaysia) to analyze the linkages between markets. Several findings are noteworthy. First, trading returns of foreign markets, such as the US, have significant impact on China's overnight (close-to-open) returns and vice-versa. Second, daytime (open-to-close) returns of many Chinese commodity futures contracts are not led by foreign daytime returns. Finally, the close-to-close returns analysis suggests that there are no significant lead-lag relationships between the Chinese and foreign markets. These results suggest that (1) the Chinese commodity futures markets are information-efficient, and (2) they are likely to be driven by local market dynamics occurring during the daytime trading session.     

A time–frequency comovement and causality relationship between Bitcoin hashrate and energy commodity markets

This study examines time–frequency relationship between Bitcoin prices and Bitcoin mining based on daily data from January 2013 to October 2018. Bitcoin mining is measured through Bitcoin hashrate, which represents the completion speed of the Bitcoin code. We also include three energy commodities, i.e. oil, coal, and gas in a multivariate model employing time–frequency wavelet extensions in the form of partial and multivariate models. Results of our study suggest that both oil and gas lead Bitcoin returns from mid 2014 till 2016 across 64– 128 days' period. Under the investment period of 64– 256, hashrate and Bitcoin returns share significant comovement in the presence of oil and natural gas however exhibit no comovement when the effect of coal market is considered. Our results of wavelet decomposition suggest that the magnitude of comovement ranging from short- to long-run is time varying. Finally, results of the causality on quantile test suggest that Bitcoin returns cause changes in Bitcoin hashrate mostly during median quantiles with an asymmetric pattern. Our work entail implications for investors in the Bitcoin and energy market and is also helpful in forecasting the pricing behavior of Bitcoin using the hashrate and vice versa.     

The spot–forward relationship revisited: an ERM perspective

We re-examine the relationship between spot and forward exchange rates using Hansen's stability tests for co-integrating equations. Two numeraire currencies are used: the DM as the ERM's nth currency and the US$ as a ‘control’. The striking feature is that while the spot–forward relationship displays broad stability against the dollar, precisely the opposite is true against the DM. We investigate whether this result can be interpreted as evidence that the ERM target zones lacked credibility. Using the general-to-specific modelling framework, we develop dynamic relationships that can be readily used to interpret the source of the Hansen instability. Our results also have implications for the appropriate way to test the unbiasedness of the forward exchange rate.     

Is the January effect still alive in the futures markets?

The January effect concerns the fact that small capitalization stocks have historically outperformed large capitalized stocks in January. We analyze evidence as to whether this anomaly can be exploited in the futures markets as a speculative investment or to add risk-adjusted value to portfolio performance. We find that the January effect is still alive in the futures markets on the Value Line minus S&P 500 spread trade, but that the marginal liquidity of the Value Line stock index futures contract has made it very risky to exploit the effect. Historically from 1982/3 to 2004/5, the trade has been profitable. This anomaly was also exploitable through a Russell 2000 minus S&P 500 spread trade from 1993/4 to 2004/5.

Understanding the relationship between founder–CEOs and firm performance

We use instrumental variables methods to disentangle the effect of founder–CEOs on performance from the effect of performance on founder–CEO status. Our instruments for founder–CEO status are the proportion of the firm's founders that are dead and the number of people who founded the company. We find strong evidence that founder–CEO status is endogenous in performance regressions and that good performance makes it less likely that the founder retains the CEO title. After factoring out the effect of performance on founder–CEO status, we identify a positive causal effect of founder–CEOs on firm performance that is quantitatively larger than the effect estimated through standard OLS regressions. We also find that founder–CEOs are more likely to relinquish the CEO post after periods of either unusually low or unusually high operating performances. All in all, the results in this paper are consistent with a largely positive view of founder control in large US corporations.     

Multiple-limit trades: empirical facts and application to lead–lag measures

Order splitting is a standard practice in trading: traders constantly scan the limit order book and choose to limit the size of their market orders to the quantity available at the best limit, thereby controlling the market impact of their orders. In this article, we focus on the other trades, multiple-limit trades that go through the best available price in the order book, or ‘trade-throughs’. We provide various statistics on trade-throughs: frequency, volume, intraday distribution, market impact, etc., and present a new method for the measurement of lead–lag parameters between assets, sectors or markets.     

Does futures trading increase stock market volatility? The case of the Nikkei stock index futures markets

We propose new tests to examine whether stock index futures affect stock market volatility. These tests decompose spot portfolio volatility into the cross-sectional dispersion and the average volatility of returns on the portfolio's constituent securities. Our tests show that for Nikkei stocks spot portfolio volatility increased and cross-sectional dispersion decreased compared with average volatility when Nikkei futures began trading on the Osaka Securities Exchange, but not on the Singapore International Monetary Exchange. For non-Nikkei stocks, no shift occurred when futures trading began on either exchange. These findings are consistent with the hypotheses that futures trading increases spot portfolio volatility but that there is no volatility “spillover” to stocks against which futures are not traded. However, the increase in volatility attributable to futures trading is small compared with volatility shifts induced by changes in broad economic factors.     

Relation between bid–ask spread,impact and volatility in order-driven markets

We show that the cost of market orders and the profit of infinitesimal market-making or -taking strategies can be expressed in terms of directly observable quantities, namely the spread and the lag-dependent impact function. Imposing that any market taking or liquidity providing strategies is at best marginally profitable, we obtain a linear relation between the bid–ask spread and the instantaneous impact of market orders, in good agreement with our empirical observations on electronic markets. We then use this relation to justify a strong, and hitherto unnoticed, empirical correlation between the spread and the volatility per trade, with R ²s exceeding 0.9. This correlation suggests both that the main determinant of the bid–ask spread is adverse selection, and that most of the volatility comes from trade impact. We argue that the role of the time-horizon appearing in the definition of costs is crucial and that long-range correlations in the order flow, overlooked in previous studies, must be carefully factored in. We find that the spread is significantly larger on the NYSE, a liquid market with specialists, where monopoly rents appear to be present.     

The role of perceived costs and perceived benefits in the relationship between personality and risk‐related choices

This paper considers how perceptions of costs and benefits can influence the association between personality and risky choice behaviour. We assessed perceptions and behaviours in six domains (ethical; investment; gambling; health and safety; recreational; social) using the DOSPERT and measured personality using the NEO PI‐R. Results from structural equation modelling showed that personality had a direct effect on risky choice behaviour in four domains (social, ethical, gambling and recreational risk‐taking). In addition, perceived costs and benefits mediated the relations between personality and risk‐taking in the five domains (social, ethical, gambling, recreational and investment risk‐taking). Evidence for a mechanism that integrates both direct and indirect effects of personality on behaviour is discussed.     

The role of jump dynamics in the risk–return relationship

Surprisingly, a positive risk–return relationship has not been consistently observed for the traditional GARCH in the mean model in other studies. In this paper, we employ a combination of the jump diffusion and GARCH model in the mean equation to test the risk–return relationship for U.S. stock returns. The results suggest a statistically significant relationship between risk and return if the risk measure includes components of smoothly changing variance and jump events.     

Is idiosyncratic volatility priced in commodity futures markets?

This article investigates the relationship between expected returns and past idiosyncratic volatility in commodity futures markets. Measuring the idiosyncratic volatility of 27 commodity futures contracts with traditional pricing models that fail to account for backwardation and contango leads to the puzzling finding that idiosyncratic volatility is significantly negatively priced cross-sectionally. However, idiosyncratic volatility is not priced when the phases of backwardation and contango are suitably factored in the pricing model. A time-series portfolio analysis similarly suggests that failing to recognize the fundamental risk associated with the inexorable phases of backwardation and contango leads to overstated profitability of the idiosyncratic volatility mimicking portfolios.     

The relationship between bid–ask spreads and holding periods: The case of Chinese A and B shares

The Chinese stock markets for A (domestic) shares and B (foreign) shares were completely separated. This study examines the relationship between spreads and holding periods across these segmented markets on the same set of firms. Our major findings are as follows. (1) There is a positive relationship between holding periods and bid–ask spreads in the Chinese stock market. (2) Investors' sensitivity toward liquidity is approximately the same in the A and B share markets, even though bid–ask spreads are substantially different across the two markets. These results provide strong support for the theoretical argument of Amihud and Mendelson [Amihud, Y., & Mendelson, H. (1986). Asset pricing and the bid–ask spread. Journal of Financial Economics, 17, 223–249.] that stocks with higher spreads tend to be held by long-term investors. Evidence also suggests that liquidity has a role in explaining the B share discount, although the results are less than conclusive.     

The relationship between bid–ask spreads and holding periods: The case of Chinese A and B shares

The Chinese stock markets for A (domestic) shares and B (foreign) shares were completely separated. This study examines the relationship between spreads and holding periods across these segmented markets on the same set of firms. Our major findings are as follows. (1) There is a positive relationship between holding periods and bid–ask spreads in the Chinese stock market. (2) Investors' sensitivity toward liquidity is approximately the same in the A and B share markets, even though bid–ask spreads are substantially different across the two markets. These results provide strong support for the theoretical argument of Amihud and Mendelson [Amihud, Y., & Mendelson, H. (1986). Asset pricing and the bid–ask spread. Journal of Financial Economics, 17, 223–249.] that stocks with higher spreads tend to be held by long-term investors. Evidence also suggests that liquidity has a role in explaining the B share discount, although the results are less than conclusive.     

Do spot food commodity and oil prices predict futures prices?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Futures prices reflect the price that both the buyer and the seller agree will be the price of a commodity upon delivery. Therefore, these prices...     

The Finance–Growth Nexus and Poverty Reduction in Western China

In this article, we study the effect of financial development (FD) on economic growth in western China. Special attention is paid to the western region because of the large-scale development strategy in West China. We specify the regression models based on the endogenous growth theory. The empirical results show that (1) FD can promote economic growth mainly through improving TFP; (2) FD is more important than human capital in promoting GDP growth; (3) The effect of FD on TFP growth is significant statistically in all regions, but it is the most significant economically in the western region of China.     

The anatomy of buyer–seller dynamics in decentralized markets

In this paper I investigate the nexus between buyer–seller dynamics, financial frictions and market efficiency in decentralized markets. To do so, I introduce financial frictions in a dynamic market with heterogeneous traders. Heterogeneously constrained buyers sequentially enter the market to acquire units of a generic good from heterogeneously endowed sellers. I characterize two closely related classes of equilibria, respectively called homogeneous equilibrium with no entry (HEWNE) and homogeneous equilibrium with entry (HEWE). Both equilibria prescribe a market where only the efficiently endowed type of seller exists in the limit. However, the two equilibria diverge in the specification of agents’ behavior subsequent to trade. In HEWNE, sellers and buyers exit the market upon successful trading. In HEWE, like in supply chains, in every period certain types of buyers replace exiting sellers, thus becoming potential sellers for subsequent waves of buyers. First, I identify the critical role of frictions in steering the complex evolution of market heterogeneity for both classes of equilibria. Secondly, I operationalize the combined study of HEWNE and HEWE to obtain sharp predictions on market efficiency for a range of empirically-relevant situations in which buyer–seller dynamics are decoupled, for example when entry of new sellers is delayed or stopped. Third, I test the theoretical findings against a simulated artificial market.