A comprehensive structural model for defaultable fixed-income bonds

An exact valuation formula for defaultable corporate coupon bonds is proved. The model incorporates discrete coupons, bankruptcy costs, taxes and the market risk generated by a stochastic risk-free structure. The aim of this paper is twofold: first, we generalise previous pricing models for corporate bonds; second, we provide a comprehensive formula in order to properly disentangle the contribution of several risk factors to credit spreads.     

Enhanced equity-credit modelling for contingent convertibles

Contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds are characterized by forced equity conversion under either an accounting or regulatory trigger. The accounting trigger occurs when the capital ratio of the issuing bank falls below some contractual threshold. Under the regulatory trigger, sometimes called the point-of-non-viability (PONV) trigger, the regulatory authority may enforce equity conversion when the financial health of the bank deteriorates to certain distressed level. In this paper, we propose an equity-credit modelling of the joint process of the stock price and the capital ratio that integrates both a structural approach for the accounting trigger and a reduced-form approach for the PONV trigger of equity conversion. We also construct effective Fortet algorithms and finite difference schemes for numerical pricing of CoCo bonds under various forms of equity conversion pay-off. The pricing properties of CoCo bonds are examined under different assumptions for the state-dependent intensity of the PONV trigger, the contractual specifications and market conditions.     

关于或有可转换债券的研究

次贷金融危机后,或有可转换债券作为解决＂太大而不能倒闭＂的一种方案以及金融机构的自救手段而广受热议,并得到许多监管机构的推崇。文章在对或有可转换债券产品及其功能进行深入分析后,发现其仍面临着诸如监管风险、低评级风险以及技术性风险等制约因素。鉴于或有可转换债券在危机期间显示出的对企业强大的救助功效以及防范危机进一步蔓延的能力,其发展前景仍值得期待,文章最后对或有可转换债券未来的发展方向进行了展望。     

A framework to measure integrated risk

A framework underlying various models that measure the credit risk of a portfolio is extended in this paper to allow the integration of credit risk with a range of market risks using Monte Carlo simulation. A structural model is proposed that allows interest rates to be stochastic and provides closed-form expressions for the market value of a firm's equity and its probability of default. This model is embedded within the integrated framework and the general approach illustrated by measuring the risk of a foreign exchange forward when there is a significant probability of default by the counterparty. For this example moving from a market risk calculation to an integrated risk calculation reduces the expected future value of the instrument by an amount that could not be calculated using the common pre-settlement exposure technique for estimating the credit risk of a derivative.     

Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many emerging market countries resorted to capital controls to tackle the excessive surge of capital inflows. A number of recent research papers have suggested that the imposition of controls may have imposed negative externalities on other countries by deflecting flows. Our aim in the research reported in this paper is to assess the efficacy of capital controls and potential deflection effects on other countries by constructing a comprehensive global econometric model which captures the dynamic interactions of capital flows with domestic and global fundamentals. The results suggest that capital controls are effective for some countries in the short run, but have no lasting effects. Moreover, there is only limited evidence of deflection effects for a small number of emerging market countries.     

Industry cost of equity capital: European evidence for multifactor models

We estimate the costs of equity capital for 117 industries from 16 European countries employing the CAPM and 8 multifactor asset pricing models as well as a variety of different econometric techniques. In doing so, we extend previous research on cost of equity estimation in mainly two ways. First, our study involves European instead of US or UK industries, which are investigated in previous research, and we find that cost of equity estimates obtained from the CAPM or multifactor asset pricing models are as imprecise for European industries as for US and UK industries. Second, in addition to the CAPM, the Fama and French [1993 Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French. 1993. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics 33: 3–56. doi: 10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics 33: 3–56] three-factor model, and the Carhart [1997 Carhart, Mark M. 1997. “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.” The Journal of Finance 52 (1): 57–82. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.” The Journal of Finance 52 (1): 57–82] four-factor model, which are usually employed, our study includes six multifactor models that have not yet been examined on their ability to provide precise estimates of the costs of equity: the five-factor model of Fama and French [1993 Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French. 1993. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics 33: 3–56. doi: 10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics 33: 3–56] as well as the multifactor models of Pástor and Stambaugh [2003 Pástor, Lubos, and Robert F. Stambaugh. 2003. “Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns.” Journal of Political Economy 111 (3): 642–685. doi: 10.1086/374184[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. “Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns.” Journal of Political Economy 111 (3): 642–685]; Campbell and Vuolteenaho [2004 Campbell, John Y., and Tuomo Vuolteenaho. 2004. “Bad Beta, Good Beta.” American Economic Review 94 (5): 1249–1275. doi: 10.1257/0002828043052240[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. “Bad Beta, Good Beta.” American Economic Review 94 (5): 1249–1275]; Hahn and Lee [2006 Hahn, Jaehoon, and Hangyong Lee. 2006. “Yield Spreads as Alternative Risk Factors for Size and Book-To-Market.” Journal of Financial &; Quantitative Analysis 41 (2): 245–269. doi: 10.1017/S0022109000002052[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. “Yield Spreads as Alternative Risk Factors for Size and Book-To-Market.” Journal of Financial &; Quantitative Analysis 41 (2): 245–269]; Petkova [2006 Petkova, Ralitsa. 2006. “Do the Fama–French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?” The Journal of Finance 61 (2): 581–612. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00849.x[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. “Do the Fama–French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?” The Journal of Finance 61 (2): 581–612]; and Koijen, Lustig, and van Nieuwerburgh [2010 Koijen, Ralph S., Hanno N. Lustig, and Stijn G. van Nieuwerburgh. 2010. “The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns.” Working Paper, University of Chicago, University of California at Los Angeles, New York University. [Google Scholar]. “The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns.” Working Paper, University of Chicago, University of California at Los Angeles, New York University]. Our results suggest that these models provide even more imprecise cost of equity estimates. One main reason for these inaccurate estimates is the large temporal variation of the risk loadings on the non-traded factors in these models.     

Insider trading in an equilibrium model with default: a passage from reduced-form to structural modelling

We study, in the framework of Back [Rev. Financial Stud. 5(3), 387–409 (1992)], an equilibrium model for the pricing of a defaultable zero coupon bond issued by a firm. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent, noise traders, and a market maker who sets the price using the total order. When the insider does not trade, the default time possesses a default intensity in the market’s view as in reduced-form credit risk models. However, we show that, in equilibrium, the modelling becomes structural in the sense that the default time becomes the first time that some continuous observation process falls below a certain barrier. Interestingly, the firm value is still not observable. We also establish the no expected trade theorem that the insider’s trades are inconspicuous.      

A nesting framework for Markov-switching GARCH modelling with an application to the German stock market

In this paper, we establish a generalized two-regime Markov-switching GARCH model which enables us to specify complex (symmetric and asymmetric) GARCH equations that may differ considerably in their functional forms across the two Markov regimes. We show how previously proposed collapsing procedures for the Markov-switching GARCH model can be extended to estimate our general specification by means of classical maximum-likelihood methods. We estimate several variants of the generalized Markov-switching GARCH model using daily excess returns of the German stock market index DAX sampled during the last decade. Our empirical study has two major findings. First, our generalized model outperforms all nested specifications in terms of (a) statistical fit (when model selection is based on likelihood ratio tests) and (b) out-of-sample volatility forecasting performance. Second, we find significant Markov-switching structures in German stock market data, with substantially differing volatility equations across the regimes.     

多层次市场中场外CDS工具发展与监管

券商经营活动中,在信用、市场规则、融资者与投资者等议题上面临特殊困境,核心体现在多层次资本市场建设的重要环节之一:即信用风险转移和分散功能难以实现,信用债券市场发展迟缓。基于对已有信用风险缓释工具现状的分析,券商从实务角度出发构建了涉及场外CDS业务市场准入、做市商交易、风险控制、会计、产品线、定价和业务监管等一系列制度。CDS具有不可替代的功能,并在海外成熟的多层次资本市场中与场内股票、债券交易一并构成基础性市场。盲目对CDS的抵触对我国多层次资本市场建设并无益处。     

Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems

A framework for comparing real estate valuation systems (including automated valuation models (AVMs) and current appraisal methods) is proposed. The density estimation and profit simulation (DEPS) method measures quality of a valuation system by simulating benefits to the mortgage lender who uses this method in mortgage underwriting to limit mortgage portfolio losses due to default. Related simple measures relevant to the selection of a valuation system are also discussed: skewness of the distribution of errors, correlation of valuation errors with current selling price errors, correlation of errors of the valuation system with errors of valuation systems used by competing mortgage lenders, and other measures.     

Where's the greenium?

In this study, we investigate whether investors are willing to trade off wealth for societal benefits. We take advantage of unique institutional features of the municipal securities market to provide insight into this question. Since 2013, states and other governmental entities have issued over $23 billion of green bonds to fund eco-friendly projects. Comparing green securities to nearly identical securities issued for non-green purposes by the same issuers on the same day, we observe economically identical pricing for green and non-green issues. In contrast to a number of recent theoretical and experimental studies, we find that in real market settings investors appear entirely unwilling to forgo wealth to invest in environmentally sustainable projects. When risk and payoffs are held constant and are known to investors ex-ante, investors view green and non-green securities by the same issuer as almost exact substitutes. Thus, the greenium is essentially zero.     

The Use of Census Data for Hedonic Price Estimates of Open-Space Amenities and Land Use

Hedonic price models for determining marginal implicit prices of open-space amenities and nonresidential land use were estimated using housing data from the census. Alternative model specifications were compared to evaluate the effects of aggregating land-use data by alternative levels of census geography as well as the use of different sample sizes of census blocks. It was determined that land use is best aggregated at the block group level and that entire populations or very large sample sizes of census blocks should be used with hedonic models.     

Performance of the different RAROC models and their relation with the creation of economic value. A study of the largest banks operating in Brazil

This article approaches several different methodologies for calculation of the RAROC (Risk Adjusted Return on Capital) for Brazilian banks. Two questions gave reason to the study: whether the application of different methods for calculation of the RAROC would generate significantly different results?, and checking what is the connection between the RAROC and the generation of economic value, measured by the EVA (Economic Value Added), for the largest banks with operations in Brazil? The following methodologies for verification of the RAROC were applied: Buch’s Method (2011); Prokopczuk’s Method (2006); Prokopczuk’s Method (2006) with application of the VaR technique; Saunders’s Method (2007); Chapelle’s Method (2008); and the Smithon & Hayt Method (2001), by applying these parametric and non-parametric statistics in order to check the sensibility of the differences between models. This study has evidenced that, when we compare the methodology based on minimum capital with other methodologies, there are no significant differences, except in the few cases indicated. It is important to notice it only occurred in the case of the Bank of Brazil and it was concentrated in the comparison of the Creditmetrics models and in the methodology in which there is equivalence by the reference equity.     

A Note on the Proprietary and Entity Perspectives in Financial Statements: The Implications for two Current Controversial Issues

Financial statements can portray the financial position and performance of an entity from different perspectives. Two dominant perspectives are the proprietary and entity perspectives. These perspectives also feature in recent discussions by the IASB and the FASB in relation to their conceptual framework project. The adopted perspective will yield different presentations for a number of issues. This paper illustrates the implications for two controversial issues currently under discussion by the IASB and the FASB: accounting for changes in a reporting entity’s own credit risk when liabilities are measured at fair value, and the classification of certain obligations as either equity or liabilities. The paper explains why the adoption and consistent application of one perspective are important for standard setting and financial reporting to ensure the consistent presentation of an entity’s performance and financial position that can be correctly interpreted by users of financial statements against the background of the chosen perspective.     

Barriers to the investment in the Concentrated Solar Power sector in Morocco: A foresight approach using the Cross Impact Analysis for a large number of events

The Scenario Analysis methods have often been used by policy makers as an instrument to manage uncertainty and to support the shaping of long-term economy policies. In this research, we apply Scenario Analysis in order to identify the barriers affecting the decision to invest in the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) sector in Morocco. Our results aim at facilitating the process of defining different paths in strategic political and policy actions. Using data from a survey on a panel of experts, the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and the Cross Impact Matrix System (SMIC) techniques are applied. The advantage of these techniques is that they allow including in the analysis the interlinkages between the events that will define the future scenarios. However, their limitation is that the number of events analyzed cannot be too high since the information collected from the experts increases exponentially according to the number of events introduced. We thus expand our analysis with a new methodological approach, combining the use of prospective and statistics techniques. This approach allows addressing the mentioned limitation and applying these techniques, initially restricted to 6 events in its common application, to a large number of events. The results show that uncertainty and informality would be key factors in promoting the arrival of companies in this sector. Additionally, regarding companies that already have a presence in Morocco’s renewable energy sector, an increase in activity would be achieved through improvements in the easing of financial and legal barriers.     

The future trajectory for environmental finance: planetary boundaries and environmental,social and governance analysis

Urgent issues such as climate change have drawn increasing attention from finance scholars. Most research has situated a corporate response within the context of the environmental, social and governance performance. However, other disciplines express concerns around environmental degradation within broader frameworks, such as the Planetary Boundaries framework. We highlight the different conceptualisations of ESG and planetary boundaries and call for further research that links finance research to the Planetary Boundaries framework. We describe how contributions in the Accounting & Finance Special Issue on Environmental Finance advance research in this area and explore implications for future research that responds to the imperatives of remaining within Planetary Boundaries.     

Social and environmental accounting,organisational change and management accounting: A processual view

Consistent with calls for in-depth studies of social and environmental accounting and reporting (SEAR) intervention (Bebbington, 2007, Fraser, 2012, Contrafatto, 2012), our paper focuses on the interrelationship between organisational change and SEAR practices, as well as the involvement of management accounting in such organisational dynamics. Drawing insight from both Laughlin (1991) and Burns and Scapens’ (2000) theoretical frameworks, we explore the processes of change through which SEAR practices become elevated to strategising status, in the context of broader organisational and extra-organisational developments, but we also illuminate how institutionalised assumptions of profit-seeking limit the extent to which broader sustainability concerns become infused into day-to-day business practice. Our paper highlights the importance of management accounting in facilitating and shaping the cumulative path of SEAR practices (and sustainability more generally); however, we also heed caution against uncritical reliance upon conventional management accounting tools. The following paper extends our understanding of SEAR practices as cumulative process over time, an awareness of the potential limits to such developments in profit-seeking organisations, and stresses a need to be circumspect when involving management accounting.     

A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions

Deteriorating economic conditions in late 2008 led the Federal Reserve to lower the target federal funds rate to near zero, inject liquidity through novel facilities, and engage in large‐scale asset purchases. The combination of conventional and unconventional policy measures prevents using the effective federal funds rate to assess the effects of monetary policy beyond 2008. We employ a broad monetary aggregate to elicit the effects of monetary policy shocks both before and after 2008. Our estimates align well with major changes in the Fed's asset purchase programs and yield responses that are free from price, output, and liquidity puzzles that plague other approaches.     

IFRS within the Multi‐GAAP Canadian Reality: A Teaching and Learning Imperative for Intermediate Financial Accounting

Intermediate accounting instructors need to be engaged in the specific complexities and challenges of the new international financial reporting standards (IFRS) reality within the Canadian multi‐GAAP environment. Intermediate accounting courses are directly affected because they represent substantive coverage of the corporate reporting environment. In this article I make the case that these courses should primarily reflect IFRS standards in order to entrench IFRS competencies in students who wish to pursue a professional designation, to prepare students for the global environment, and to concentrate IFRS expertise issues in a robust instructor group. The competency maps of each of the three Canadian professional accounting bodies clearly reflect IFRS. Students can analyze the implications of major areas of policy differences between IFRS and private enterprise GAAP (PEGAAP) through specific targeted course coverage, but also through active learning elements, particularly research elements. This commentary reflects some of the active debate occurring regarding postsecondary curriculum as Canada adapts to IFRS and PEGAAP, and encourages action.