Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets

This paper examines empirical contemporaneous and causal relationships between trading volume, stock returns and return volatility in China's four stock exchanges and across these markets. We find that trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of the markets. As for the cross-market causal relationship in China's stock markets, there is evidence of a feedback relationship in returns between Shanghai A and Shenzhen B stocks, and between Shanghai B and Shenzhen B stocks. Shanghai B return helps predict the return of Shenzhen A stocks. Shanghai A volume Granger-causes return of Shenzhen B. Shenzhen B volume helps predict the return of Shanghai B stocks. This paper also investigates the causal relationship among these three variables between China's stock markets and the US stock market and between China and Hong Kong. We find that US return helps predict returns of Shanghai A and Shanghai B stocks. US and Hong Kong volumes do not Granger-cause either return or volatility in China's stock markets. In short, information contained in returns, volatility, and volume from financial markets in the US and Hong Kong has very weak predictive power for Chinese financial market variables.     

Nonlinear interdependence of the Chinese stock markets

The methodologies and assumptions in financial integration studies are problematic and may lead to spurious empirical results. Using surrogate data analysis and the mutual prediction method of testing for nonlinear interdependence, it is feasible for an analyst, with a scant knowledge of the underlying dynamics of two dynamical systems, to show whether or not the systems are interdependent. This study applies these techniques in testing for nonlinear interdependence of three Chinese stock markets: Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. The empirical results of the present study indicate that the stock market series are nonlinear and that the Chinese stock exchanges are nonlinearly interdependent. Specifically, the evidence indicates that Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are bi-directionally interdependent, while Shanghai and Hong Kong as well as Shenzhen and Hong Kong markets are unidirectionally interdependent, with the direction of interdependence going from the mainland's markets to the Hong Kong market.     

The dynamic dependence between stock markets in the greater China economic area: a study based on extreme values and copulas

This study employs the dynamic copula method and extreme value theory to investigate the dependence structure between pairs of greater China economic area (GCEA) stock markets consisting of Shanghai (SHSE), Shenzhen (SZSE), Hong Kong (HKSE), and Taiwan (TWSE) stock exchanges from July 2000 to June 2017. We also examine the impact of financial crisis on the dependence structure by considering the global financial crisis and the Chinese stock market crash (2015–2016). Many studies have shown that the benefits of portfolio diversification across the stock markets in the same region could be diminishing. However, it is interesting to see that the diversification benefits appear to be viable for investing in some GCEA pairs of stock markets (SHSE–TWSE and SZSE–HKSE).     

Do birds of the same feather flock together?: The case of the Chinese states equity markets

We examine the equity market price interdependence between China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan based on the [Journal of Econometrics 66 (1995) 225] causality test which we bootstrap with leveraged adjustments. A new information criterion is used to choose the optimal lag order. We cover the period January 1, 1993–September 10, 2001 taking into account the Asian financial crisis in 1997. We find that before the Asian crisis, the only interaction among the Chinese markets was between Singapore and the markets of Taiwan and Hong Kong with the causality running from the former to the latter. However, after the Asian crisis, the Chinese equity markets became more interdependent among themselves although Hong Kong remained non-influential.     

金融中心评价指标体系研究

本文在综述国内外关于金融中心评价指标体系的基础上,分析了影响金融中心形成和运行的因素,依据国际金融中心的形成和运行具有较高相关度的原则,构建了包括经济环境、金融市场、金融机构和金融制度四方面内容的评价指标体系,利用2004年东京、新加坡、香港、北京、上海、广州和深圳七个城市的数据,依据层次聚类分析方法对这些城市所处的层次进行定位:北京、广州和深圳成为一类,为金融中心的初级阶段;上海成为第二类,为国内金融中心阶段;香港和新加坡成为一类,是区域国际金融中心;东京处于最高阶段,是真正的国际金融中心.最后对这些城市的发展前景进行了预测.     

Jump-Dependent Model for Optimal Index Futures Hedging in Five Major Asian Stock Markets

This article develops a jump-dependent model to capture the dependences between spot and futures returns and their jumps simultaneously, named JD model. We examine hedging performance of the presenting JD model for the futures contracts of Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. The results have shown that the JD model has better out-of-sample performance than the OLS for Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Since these three markets have higher jump dependence between spot and futures, we consider that jump dependence plays an important role in hedging performance. The higher jump dependence means spot and futures markets move more closely when unusual news reveals itself and thus futures could hedge the spot more effectively when extreme unusual news arrives.     

Looking for risk premium and contagion in Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets

This article tests pure contagion effects among four Asian foreign exchange markets, namely, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan during the 1997 Asian crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals or systematic risks. The empirical results show strong contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities of those markets after systematic risks have been accounted for. Specifically, the contagion-in-mean effects are mainly driven by the past return shocks in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. As for contagion in volatility, the lead/lag relationships appear to be multidirectional among Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan, but between Hong Kong and Singapore, and between Hong Kong and Taiwan, they are unidirectional, with Hong Kong playing the dominant role in generating negative volatility shocks. In addition, the conditional ICAPM with asymmetric multivariate general autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic in mean (MGARCH(1,1)-M) structure is able to explain/predict on average 17.28% of the return variations in those markets. Therefore, this study provide a further evidence that the time-varying risk premium is a very strong candidate in explaining the predictable excess return puzzle [Lewis, K. K. (1994). Puzzles in international financial markets. NBER Working Paper No. 4951] since the risk premia founded in this article are not only statistically significant but also economically significant.     

Studying the properties of the Bitcoin as a diversifying and hedging asset through a copula analysis: Constant and time-varying

In this study, we analyze the properties of Bitcoin as a diversifier asset and hedge asset against the movement of international market stock indices: S&P500 (US), STOXX50 (EU), NIKKEI (Japan), CSI300 (Shanghai), and HSI (Hong Kong). For this, we use several copula models: Gaussian, Student-t, Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank. The analysis period runs from August 18, 2011 to June 31, 2019. We found that the Gaussian and Student-t copulas are best at fitting the structure dependence between markets. Also, these copulas suggest that under normal market conditions, Bitcoin might act as a hedge asset against the stock price movements of all international markets analyzed. However, the dependence on the Shanghai and Hong Kong markets was somewhat higher. Also, under extreme market conditions, the role of Bitcoin might change from hedge to diversifier. In a time-varying copula analysis, given by the Student-t copula, we found that even under normal market conditions, for some markets, the role of Bitcoin as a hedge asset might fail on a high number of days.     

Office Property Returns in Shanghai,Guangzhou, and Shenzhen

Commercial property development in China has been a growth industry in recent years. This article examines the returns on office property in the three major cities of Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen in the period 1991 to 1997. Analyses based on the Security Market Line (SML) show that property investments in the office sector in Shanghai and Guangzhou have excess returns and that Shanghai office property tends to dominate the optimal portfolios due to its superior risk-adjusted returns. While equal returns in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen cannot be rejected, the Shanghai office property is subject to the least systematic risk, compared with all other cities. Hong Kong office property is included only in the less risky optimal portfolios. In addition, our results indicate that there is little correlation between the office property returns in Hong Kong and the office property in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Guangzhou and Shenzhen office markets, which are geographically relatively close to Hong Kong, tend to be more volatile than the Shanghai office market. However, owing to Shenzhens proximity to Hong Kong, there is significant correlation between the returns of the office property in Shenzhen and the office property in Hong Kong.     

Causality and cointegration of stock markets among the United States,Japan and the South China Growth Triangle

This paper explores the causality and cointegration relationships among the stock markets of the United States, Japan and the South China Growth Triangle (SCGT) region. Applying the recently advanced unit root and cointegration techniques that allow for structural breaks over the sample period (October 2, 1992 to June 30, 1997), we find that there exists no cointegration among these markets except for that between Shanghai and Shenzhen. By invoking the Granger causality test and considering the non-synchronous trading problem, we will show that stock price changes in the US have more impact on SCGT markets than do those of Japan. More specifically, price changes in the US can be used to predict those of the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets on next day. Similarly, price changes on the Hong Kong stock market lead the Taiwan market by 1 day. Furthermore, the stock returns of the US and Hong Kong markets are found to be contemporaneous. Finally, there is a significant feedback relationship between the Shanghai and the Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.     

基于MF-DCCA方法的证券市场间交叉相关性研究

运用多重分形去趋势波动交叉相关分析法(MF-DCCA),考量上海证券市场和香港证券市场之间的交叉相关关系。实证表明：上海证券市场和香港证券市场之间存在交叉相关性,且呈现出多重分形特征;当证券市场出现较大的波动时,上海证券市场和香港证券市场的交叉标度指数要大于其平均标度指数,即两个证券市场之间的交叉相关性要大于其自相关性。     

Price Linkages in Asian Equity Markets: Evidence Bordering the Asian Economic, Currency and Financial Crises

This paper examines price linkages among Asian equity markets in the period surrounding the recent Asian economic, financial and currency crises. Three developed markets (Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore) and six emerging markets (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand) are included in the analysis. Multivariate cointegration and level VAR procedures are conducted to examine causal relationships among these markets. The results indicate that there is a stationary relationship and significant causal linkages between the Asian equity markets. Nevertheless, lower causal relationships that exist between the developed and emerging equity markets suggest that opportunities for international portfolio diversification in Asian equity markets still exist.     

Stock market integration and volatility spillover: India and its major Asian counterparts

Stock market integration and volatility spillover between India and its major Asian counterparties is studied. Apart from different degrees of correlations, contemporaneous intraday return spillovers between India and its Asian counterparts are found to be positively significant and bi-directional. Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Thailand are found to be four Asian markets from where there is significant flow of information in India. Though most of the information gets transmitted between the markets without much delay, some amount of information still remains unsent and is found to be successfully transmitted as soon as the domestic market opens in the next day.     

The Impact of the U.S. and the Japanese Equity Markets on the Emerging Asia-Pacific Equity Markets

Using a tri-variate vector autoregression model, we study the relationships between the four Asian emerging equity markets: Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, and the two largest equity markets in the world: U.S. and Japan. We find that while most of the unexpected variations in stock returns in these Asian emerging markets is explained by domestic own shocks, the impacts from the U.S. and Japan are larger in Hong Kong and Singapore than in Korea and Taiwan. This foreign effect is pronounced after the Crash of the October 1987, especially in Singapore. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Internal Market Efficiency,Market Co-movement,and Cross-Market Efficiency: The Case of Hong Kong and Shanghai Stock Markets

We examine the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the cross-market efficiency of the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets. Our results show a sharp decline in the cross-market efficiency during the financial crisis. We investigate whether this is due to lower internal market efficiency or higher market co-movement. The results show no evidence that the internal market efficiency dropped in Hong Kong or Shanghai during the crisis. In contrast, we document a strong increase in the market co-movement during the crisis. These results suggest that the decline in cross-market efficiency during the financial crisis is due to increased market co-movement and not a decline in internal market efficiency.     

Are stock and real estate markets integrated? An empirical study of six Asian economies

Rising asset prices spurred by Asia's emerging economy have drawn much attention recently. This study examines one source of growth patterns in asset prices by analyzing the integration relationship between stock markets and real estate markets in Asia. Six economies are selected for empirical analysis: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Results show that stock markets are integrated with real estate markets in Japan, and partially integrated with real estate markets in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. This implies that these two investment vehicles are substitutable in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan, and provide diversification potential for investment portfolios in South Korea and Singapore. Examining the timing of market changes, we found the real estate market leading the stock market in some countries, and the stock market leading the real estate market in others. We conclude that stock and real estate markets show a variety of inter-relationships depending on economic and political policy environments.     

Quality investing in Asian stock markets

We examine two quality investing strategies using gross profitability (GP) or FSCORE, respectively, over the period of 2000–2016 in Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan stock markets. We find that the high-quality stocks generally earn positive returns in these markets. Both FSCORE and GP are significantly positively associated with subsequent stock returns in the cross-sectional regressions. We also find that financial institutions as sophisticated investor concern about stock quality. The actively managed institutions buy significantly more high-quality stocks than low-quality stocks in each of five Asian markets. The trading pattern is not significant in passively managed institutions.     

Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries

This paper empirically investigates the effects of the 1997 financial crisis on the efficiency of eight Asian stock markets, applying the rolling bicorrelation test statistics for the three sub-periods of pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis. On a country-by-country basis, the results demonstrate that the crisis adversely affected the efficiency of most Asian stock markets, with Hong Kong being the hardest hit, followed by the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Korea. However, most of these markets recovered in the post-crisis period in terms of improved market efficiency. Given that the evidence of nonlinear serial dependencies indicates equilibrium deviation resulted from external shocks, the present findings of higher inefficiency during the crisis are not surprising as in the chaotic financial environment at that time, investors would overreact not only to local news, but also to news originating in the other markets, especially when the news events were adverse.     

Client Importance and Auditor Independence: The Effect of the Asian Financial Crisis

This paper investigates the effect of the Asian financial crisis on the relationship between client economic importance and auditor independence. Using data from 1994 to 2001 in six Asian markets (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand), we find that auditors are less likely to compromise their independence for important clients after a crisis. The result is consistent with Coffee's (2001) crash‐then‐law hypothesis and supports the notion that financial crisis triggers public concern over auditors’ independence. Furthermore, we find the effect of financial crisis on auditor independence is more pronounced in weaker investor protection regimes.