Prospects for external sources of vehicle propulsion: Results of a Delphi study

This article presents the outcome of a Delphi study carried out between October 1995 and February 1996. The subject of the study is external sources of vehicle propulsion, and its possible role in achieving more sustainable modes of transportation. The Delphi study concludes that external propulsion technologies are unlikely to be the substitute for internal combustion engines. External sources of power or energy are potentially a means of saving energy, because the weight of vehicles can be reduced and energy can be produced on a large scale thus boosting efficiency. However, there is no practical system by which these advantages can be realized without putting an unacceptable strain on the quality of the transport system. The costs would be huge; there would be considerable energy losses; safety problems could arise; and the flexibility of the users is limited. Electric vehicles could, however, become important. Pantographs and quick charging techniques could become important technologies if battery technology will not improve considerably.     

Stock price effects of climate activism: Evidence from the first Global Climate Strike

The first Global Climate Strike on March 15, 2019, represented a historical turning point in climate activism. We investigate the cross-section of stock price reactions to this event for a large sample of European firms. The strike's unanticipated success caused a decrease in the stock prices of carbon-intensive firms. The effect appears to be driven by the increased public attention to climate activism. Furthermore, after the first Global Climate Strike financial analysts downgraded their longer-term earnings forecasts on carbon-intensive firms.     

International trade in narcotic drugs: Implications for global security

This paper gives a compact analysis of the scope and limits of current anti-narcotic efforts, explaining the international security implications of an American-led ‘war’ on international drug trade. An overview of central arguments that support prohibition is provided, with emphasis on the point that distorted information about the addictive potentials of illicit substances has failed to reduce the growing number of new recruits into the drug habit. Factors sustaining the increasingly lucrative drug trade are discussed, together with the sociopolitical problems associated with the use of marijuana, cocaine, and heroin. The paper argues that the drug war is a costly failure; that it fuels social ills which sustain the momentum of drug-related crimes on a world-wide basis. The concluding section presents alternative proposals for future action on the drug problem, including legalization, domestication, and a range of regulatory measures.     

Futures for Pakistan: Deluge or destiny?

Fifty years of Pakistan history are characterized by two major issues: first, ideological, ie the role of Islamic politico-social ideals and the processes for their implementation, and the challenge to them from the forces of secularism; and second, the clash and conflict between the forces of democracy and despotism. These two areas have mostly been examined in the literature as distinct and somewhat autonomous conflicts. The fact is that in the Muslim context they represent two sides of the same coin. The author argues that democratization is a stepping stone in Islamization and fulfilment of Islamic aspirations is possible only through promotion of democratic processes.     

Learning about the future: From the learner's perspective

The path for a hopeful future depends on learning, a process that is a complex symphony of human experience. It is a process that demands deep questioning and critique of our world-views. It is a process that requires that we open ourselves to and effectively cope with a myriad of emotions. It is a process that compels us to engage in soul-searching as we explore our human responsibilities and commitments, connect with the meaning and purpose of our very existence and choose paths of action based on those reflections. Learning to care for future generations and the world they will inherit is a unique and holistic process. Our ability to support this form of learning begins with an understanding of the human experience of learning, from the perspective of learners.     

Sri Lanka: Futures beyond conflict

Not so long ago, Sri Lanka was stereotypically portrayed as a stable, model democracy inhabited by friendly and fun-loving natives; a place in the sun reserved for enjoyment; an oasis in the so called (poverty and disease ridden) ‘Third World’; a virtual paradise for tourists and natives alike. In reality, Sri Lanka has seen the burgeoning of revolutionary struggles and nationalist fervour, from putschist attempts to capture state power to liberation and self-determination. The author argues that it is the model of parliamentary democracy that is largely responsible for the ethnic violence and bloodshed on this island. It ensured the rise of the post-colonial political élite who then ensured that all the hegemonic tendencies of colonialism were preserved and entrenched. It is imperative for shaping viable futures for Sri Lanka that a new ethics and moral code of good governance—which includes transparency in government and politics—is initiated.     

Employment and innovation in advanced communication technologies: Strategies for growth and the growth of employment

If recent political interest and media hype is to be believed, the ‘information society’ is at last upon us, and could signal the end of work as we know it. But what evidence is there of how these new information highways will change work? In this article, based on recent case-study research, a set of messages about how organizations are applying and responding to the new advanced communication technologies are presented. First, innovation was most successful where managers sought to mobilize the new potential of these technologies, rather than implementing rationalization and retrenchment. Second, in order to reap these benefits, it was necessary to adapt organizationally as well as to adopt the technology. Third, one innovation strategy is not good for all situations: the way forward is dependent on the current situation of the organization, rather than on general principles.     

Transcending flatland: Implications of Ken Wilber's meta-narrative for futures studies

The Western futures project was originally founded on empiricist notions of prediction, forecasting and control. While other approaches to futures work, other traditions and ways of knowing, have certainly become established, the early framing of Futures Studies arguably occurred out of this broadly reductionist framework—what Wilber has since termed `flatland'. As a result, current ideologies such as: economic growth, globalisation, the pre-eminence accorded to science and technology, and `man's conquest of nature'—were insufficiently problematised. Technology-led views of the future remain influential within Futures Studies, bureaucratic thinking and popular culture. In this view, the future is less open than it might be because it is seen merely as an extension of the present. Critical Futures Studies question such assumptions. The paper explores how the work of this leading transpersonal synthesist can contribute both to a broadening and deepening of Futures Studies and thus help to activate cultural options that are presently obscured.     

Intangibles: The soft side of innovation

The ‘soft side’ of the innovation process is easily ignored. Nonetheless it is crucial in understanding the complexity of innovation processes and competitiveness in a knowledge-based, de-materialized economy. This article focuses on intangible investments as a component of this soft side of innovation practice. First, we will introduce and discuss the concept and meaning of intangible investments. Next, we will illustrate the growing significance of intangibles by considering examples from five industries (producing clothes and fashion, flowers, beer, publishing and financial services). Synthesizing the results from these five cases, we will link the role of intangible investments with service functions in innovation practice. Finally, we will discuss some emerging implications for both future business strategy and policy-making.     

Africa in the 1990s and beyond: Alternative prescriptions and projections

This article examines the origins, dimensions and implications of Africa's crisis. It draws attention to the impact of historical experiences, the distortions and disarticulations of that experience, and to the coalitions, contradictions, crises and conflicts inherited at independence. It looks at postcolonial alignment and realignment of social and political forces, the crisis of accumulation and power, and the implications of the region's marginal location and role in the global division of labour and power. Calling for a need to transcend the manifestations of the African predicament, the article looks at regional and international responses to the crisis. It concludes by prescribing the need for a fundamental political restructuring, the empowerment of the people and their communities and organizations, a socially sensitive structural adjustment programme, and the recomposition of the content and context of politics and social relations.     

Diffusion with distinction: The diffusion of household durables in the UK

Futures researchers have long been interested in studies that investigate the diffusion of innovations among consumers. Often this is simply as a basis for extrapolating future trends in access to technologies. But also this literature has been particularly useful in providing frameworks for understanding the processes by which new commodities come into circulation and spread across populations of adopters. In this paper we seek to deepen the analysis. We argue that many studies have oversimplified the issues by treating populations of potential adopters as being homogeneous. This, we believe, is inadequate for understanding the diffusion of products in consumer markets. Drawing on debates from cultural studies and the sociology of consumption, as well as emerging theories from evolutionary economics, and analysing household survey data, we show that there are discernible social groups that adopt products at different rates. These differential rates of adoption are attributable to the existence of groups with different tastes, and not simply a question of different income groups.     

Retrieving the dream: How students envision their preferable futures

This article begins by recalling the crucial role that popular images of the future play in societal development. It notes the apparent dearth of positive images as we approach the millennium and highlights the value of futures workshops as a procedure for enabling participants to envision the future more clearly. In particular attention is drawn to the work of Elise Boulding and her findings in this field. A pilot-study is then described which used the process developed by Boulding to help students identify the key features of their preferable futures. Some support is found for her contention that a ‘baseline’ future often emerges from such work.     

The zeno event: Science and the acceleration of history

It is commonly accepted that the scientific and technological revolution constantly increases its speed. There are a variety of indicators of this process, and an interesting, perhaps important, question is whether they tend to a common conclusion about the future of our society. In this study, we examine several such indicators, relating to both short- and long-term processes. We find that they all agree, predicting a sort of ‘Zeno event’ around the middle of the next century. This current investigation serves as a signal to those who wish to study the possibility of such a limit-event; its time-series can be tested again in the near future. If they are corroborated, this approach can serve as a well-validated warning, so that we may not merely study the world of the future but also transform it.     

Issues and challenges in the evolution of multimedia: The case of the newspaper

This article examines the key issues facing the emergence of multimedia in the newspaper industry. It looks at the underpinning forces coming from both the newspaper industry and the relentless advance in information and communication technologies. The fast growth in the number of newspapers in the Internet is then examined and the major business issues and dilemmas are discussed in detail. The rise of a variety of alliances bears witness to the need to collaborate to reduce the uncertainty of the multimedia newspaper (ad-)ventures.     

The futures of democracy in Pakistan: A liberal perspective

Due to the domination of state institutions over political institutions, Pakistan has not experienced a steady consolidation of democracy over its fifty year history. This is manifest in the lack of roots of constitutionalism, the absence of fully autonomous judiciary, a well developed party system and regularly held fair elections. Recent political developments such as the gradual withdrawal of state institutions particularly the military from the political arena, greater assertiveness of the judiciary, parliaments' curtailment of president powers and rising political consciousness among the people have brightened the chances of survival of democracy in the country. Its further consolidation will depend on the capacity of elected leaders to address the serious problems of ethnic and religious dissensions, financial vulnerability, heavy indebtedness, skyrocketing inflation and serious economic disparities.     

The city summit: The lessons of Istanbul

Global summits have been frequent over the past four years — on environment and development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992; on population and development in Cairo in 1994; on social development in Copenhagen in 1995; and on women in Beijing in 1995. The last of this series was the United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II) which took place in Istanbul in June 1996. After reminding us of the speed of urbanization and the enormous stakes involved in the development of megalopolises, the author gives his account of this ‘summit on cities’ and seven lessons he learned from it.