Climate-change lore and its implications for climate science: Post-science deliberations?

Using of the results of survey questionnaires distributed to climate scientists who focus on the German Baltic coast, regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast and weather observations from the same region, this paper assesses the existence of developing climate-change lore and the implications for the role of climate science in the science–policy interface. The Oxford Dictionary (1993) provides one definition of lore as ‘A doctrine, a precept; a creed, a religion.’ This is the definition adopted for this paper. The paper concludes that the discrepancies among weather observations, scientific assessments and decision makers’ perceptions suggest that climate-change lore exists, or is coming into existence. The paper then discusses the implications for the science–policy interface and suggests that given current trajectories, science could come to play a secondary role to climate-change lore in regional political decision making concerning climate change. To the truth-to-power model of the science–policy interface and the tenets of post-normal science, three additional possibly evolving science–policy configurations (as pertaining to the climate change issue) are offered.     

The changing technological environment and the future of behavioural research in accounting

In an era where the pace of change continues to escalate, behavioural research provides an ongoing avenue for explaining the likely effects of emergent changes on decision‐making by providers, users and assurers of accounting information, and for providing ex ante enlightenment for policy‐makers. The purpose of this discussion is to identify contemporary changes affecting the accounting environment, discuss the potential impact to individual and organisational decision‐making, and explore how behavioural research can be utilised to examine these changes. Specifically, this discussion focuses on the impact that technological changes have had on financial reporting, external auditing and managerial accounting, with an eye towards the potential for these changes to radically alter the future of accounting and auditing research.     

Environmental scenarios and local-global level of community engagement: Environmental justice, jams, institutions and innovation

National climate change policy currently operates on a continuum from the local community to the supra-national level. These initiatives include local deliberative processes of low-carbon futures as well as local-global interactions in ‘eco-innovation jam’ dialogues carried out in a virtual space, but founded on communicating with local stakeholder groups. Experiences from national processes and international examples of these structured dialogues of community engagement raise important questions of environmental justice and deliberative processes that facilitate participation by some groups, but perhaps also neglect others. This is particularly relevant since the environmental justice discourse traditionally frames environmental concerns in a place-bound manner that includes local responses to environmental questions. In this paper we argue the importance of local and global forums and deliberative processes for community engagement in order to incorporate stakeholders’ perceptions of future options for low-carbon living, travelling and consuming services and products. Important policy transformations in planning for low-carbon societies are outlined and results from cases are discussed. We conclude with three remarks about the importance of citizen participation for understanding local conditions for change, processes of localized internationalization, and new roles for nation states facing the climate change challenge. We also recognise the importance of the local and global level of deliberative processes targeting sustainable urban futures.     

Sustainable development of agricultural systems: competing objectives and critical limits

The sustainability of agricultural systems has become a major focus for debates about future human survival. Much of the argument appears to rely on simplistic interpretation of ecological models, and fails adequately to define what sustainability objectives are being sought. We explore the implications of two alternative approaches to agricultural sustainability: the Critical Limits view which would require future farming systems to accept the ecosystem-imposed limits on the number of people in the world and the lifestyle they can enjoy; and the Competing Objectives view would balance agricultural sustainability with economic viability, reduction of environmental harm and fulfilling public demands for food and landscape benefits. The development of farming systems of the future will depend on which of these views is adopted by planners and policy makers.This paper challenges some of the ecological assumptions underlying the Critical Limits approach and questions the conventional view that extensive farming systems are more sustainable agriculturally than intensive systems. We may be able to deal more effectively with the environmental side effects of intensive farming systems by treating them as unwanted externalities and taking direct action to avoid or remove them rather than attempting to change fundamentally the nature of modern farming systems.To cope with the increasingly complexity and inter-connectedness of modern farming systems in the context of globalisation and potential perturbations like climate change, we need a pluralistic approach to policy, which can cope with the high levels of uncertainty in these areas and which allows maximum flexibility of response to changing circumstances.     

HIstorical perspective and environmental cost-benefit analysis

This article is concerned with the analytical as well as political strengths and weaknesses of the application of cost-benefit techniques in cases of environmentally sensitive projects, and highlights the historical perspective against which the rapid development of the modern age can be evaluated. When environmental conflict is considered in its historical/futurological dimension, a more deterministic point of view becomes acceptable. This point of view entails the notion that micro-environmental decision makers are compromised by macro-environmental parameters-both technological change and economic and demographic momentum-over which they have no control. Environmental policy, therefore, appears to call for macroenvironmental direction. In the absence of such direction, cost-benefit economists may find themselves forced to provide the right solutions for the wrong problems, with perhaps disconcerting prospects for the long-run future of the man-nature relationship.     

The Great Crash of 1929: A Look Back After 90 Years

The Great Crash of 1929 ranks among the climactic events of the last century, apparently heralding the beginning of the Great Depression. This event raises at least four questions that are relevant today:

• Why did the “Roaring 20s” roar? Some prominent contemporaries held that the decade roared because of consumerism, credit growth, and the Jazz Age. However, recent research suggests an alternative explanation: a revolution in manufacturing and technology that amplified economic growth and volatility in markets.
• Was the boom in equities a “bubble?” Both the authors’ research and other studies show surprisingly weak evidence of a bubble. The boom probably reflected the technology shock of the ‘20s. If there was a bubble, it was limited in time, breadth, and impact.
• What caused the Crash? The onset of an ordinary recession, surprising changes in monetary policy by the Fed, growing regulation, and rising protectionism all help to explain a sharp and sudden change in investor sentiment.
• Did the Crash cause the Great Depression, as popular opinion has long maintained? No. The cycle of economic contraction had begun well before the crash. Furthermore, the wealth effect of the Crash was limited. The pivot from recession into Great Depression reflected the abandonment of the Gold Exchange Standard, a wave of bank panics and collapse of credit, protectionism, and a number of maladroit public policies. But if the Crash did not cause the Depression, it probably amplified the effects of forces already at work.

Answers to these questions, illuminated by careful research, remind decision‐makers in business and government that the first explanations for historical events are not always the best, that complex systems have unintended consequences, and that gaps in information make the Great Crash a difficult standard by which to assess future events. The use of historical precedent warrants caution and great humility in the makers of public policy.     

How Africa can benefit from knowledge

Africa's poverty partly stems from the lack of strong scientific, technological and knowledge bases. The abundance of natural resources on the continent has been of limited value to the African people because they do not have the tools with which to turn their resources into consumable wealth. To rectify this situation, African policy makers would have to undertake various measures. First, they need to define the type of knowledge their countries require. Second, they ought to establish conditions for nurturing strategic leaders who will, in turn, seek the right forms of knowledge to tackle Africa's problems. Third, policy makers need to build the political and legal frameworks that encourage the absorption and application of scientific innovations. Fourth, African leaders ought to revamp the universities, establish regional research centres, and take capacity building more seriously. It is these measures that will facilitate Africa's meaningful participation in global knowledge flows. Above all, knowledge creation should aim at attaining human welfare, participatory democracy, peace building and socio-economic justice.     

Building the future: Undertaking proactive strategy for national outlook

Future studies should provide the means to forecast potential crisis in order to avoid them or limit their effects [Masini, E. 2006, Rethinking futures studies, Futures 38, 1158-1168]. Recognizing and realizing the future events from past up to the present have been the main concern of the rulers and policy makers from the very beginning of civilization. Future studies are a decisive part of the public decision process which plays a very distinctive role in the desirable future of a society. The role of elites in future studies and scenario building is notable; they design national policies and strategies and have a significant impact in general public. Although future cannot be foretold by anyone, the interactions of advanced nations seem to be counter productive; they try to depict the futures. In this case, the futures are built, not predicted. The interactions of two or more systems at the level of international relations have been discussed in this paper. The imaginations of general public toward the futures are given in each society by using these analogies: railroad, river, sea and game. Therefore, the intervention of advanced nations may confront passive, harmonic, active, proactive and chaotic reaction in the other nations. We have discussed that undertaking proactive strategy is the best way to design national perspective.     

区间数信息下的风险投资群决策评价研究

随着中国风险投资行业不断扩张,为了避免高风险,需要多位决策人员共同参与投资项目的评价。而决策人员面对复杂系统更适合以区间数给出评价。本文提出风险投资的3个评价指标,运用粒子群算法集结区间数信息,构建群决策全局最优偏好矩阵,采用可能度矩阵和排序向量法确定次序。最后的应用研究结果表明,该方法具有一定的可行性和科学性,有利于风险投资项目评价的发展。     

Decision making for global problems

It is unnecessary to encourage operational research (OR) workers to become involved in problems of major world impact; this is why OR was born in wartime. Then it could be assumed that an entity existed (the decision maker) with sufficient problem awareness, clear objectives and adequate intelligence to decide between presented options. Not until peacetime was it recognized that today's problems affect our future rather than our present. It became necessary to invent futures studies, and from that point there can be no all-wise decision maker. Consequently there are gaps in futures methodology. Problems can be identified and their impact analysed, but there is no direct road towards implementation. There are many decision makers but no common approach or goal. Opinion pools have not been an adequate substitute for informed decision making. New methodology is needed. This article considers the difficulties and makes suggestions for changes in approach.     

A bibliometric review of financial market integration literature

We undertake a meta-literature review on the topic of financial market integration (FMI), covering 260 articles from 1981 to 2021. Our review consists of quantitative analysis of bibliometric citations concomitant with qualitative analysis of content, towards a goal of identifying primary research streams and proposing directions for future research. We identify five research groups: (1) portfolio diversification with financial market integration; (2) general equity market integration; (3) financial market linkage with respect to crises and events; (4) time-varying financial market integration; and (5) co-movements and spillovers between commodities and financial markets; as well as present a wide array of future research directions. We conduct an extensive review of FMI literature, answering several questions: (1) What is the domain of FMI research?; (2) What are the influential aspects of top journals and authors, and the characteristics of the most studied topics?; (3) What are the past and current key research streams in FMI literature?; and (4) What are the substantial future relevant research questions to explore regarding FMI? Given the ongoing attention on financial market integration by both academicians and policy makers, our results should be of great interest.     

制度和政策不确定性下的创新决策与经济增长过程

构建"2+1"部门内生创新模型,考量政策的连续性和制度的稳定性对经济增长产生影响.结果表明:由于创新活动具有极大的风险性质,初期需要巨大投入,而回报分散在漫长的未来时间,因而未来面临的各种制度和政策变化都会影响到创新成果的现值,从而不利于鼓励研发部门将资源投入创新活动.更重要的是,由于政府部门需要实现多重政策目标,这意味着鼓励创新的目标可能受到牵制,从而增加了创新活动未来收益的不确定性.因此,要促进创新活动,必须为研发部门提供一个可以稳定预期的未来制度与政策环境.     

Appraising the precautionary principle – a decision analysis perspective

The public and regulators are naturally concerned about any decision that has uncertain but potentially serious health and environmental consequences. When facing such decisions, some individuals say we should resolve significant uncertainties before taking expensive action that may be unnecessary. Others support the precautionary principle, which says that policy makers should err on the side of caution by acting now to avoid or limit potentially detrimental consequences. This paper appraises the precautionary principle from a perspective decision analytic point of view. We argue that neither the 'resolve uncertainties before taking action' nor the 'act now on the side of caution' are appropriate as general policies for all environmental decision problems. Instead, we conclude that policy makers need to conduct sound, in-depth analyses to resolve the pros and cons of acting now versus conducting more research on a case-by-case basis.     

从仿真交易看沪深300指数期货的期现套利

在考虑了交易成本、指数期货保证金水平以及跟踪误差等因素后，本文给出了沪深300指数期货无套利区间。选择ETF组合作为沪深300指数现货的替代，根据日均跟踪误差最小化原则确定各ETF比重。利用中金所仿真交易数据，我们发现，各仿真合约的错误定价率平均都在8％以上，但在7月份以后显著下降；已到期合约IF0707的平均月化套利收益率为9％，三个未到期合约同样存在可观的套利收益。本文通过分析沪深300指数期货的期现套利，以期为期货交易的政策制定者和投资者提供科学的可操作的参考意见。     

Dynamic monetary-fiscal interactions and the role of monetary conservatism

Assuming that macroeconomic policies are directed by distinct monetary and fiscal policy makers who cannot commit to future actions, we reassess the implications of monetary conservatism and fiscal impatience in a setting with nominal government debt. For environments where a non-negative steady state level of government debt (assets) emerges in the absence of conservatism and impatience, monetary conservatism induces accumulation of a higher stock of liabilities (assets) and has adverse (positive) welfare implications. This result obtains irrespectively of the degree of fiscal impatience and questions the unambiguous desirability of monetary conservatism traditionally found in the literature.     

The impact of foresight on environmental science and technology policy in the Netherlands

Globalisation, high tech development and environmental issues have made policy makers aware again of the possibilities of future studies for policy making. However, the lack of systematic knowledge about their impact is a major obstruction to a proper use of future studies. Especially since future studies no longer claim to predict the future, but are seen as a strategic tool for improving strategic interaction between key actors and for anticipatory policy making, insight in the dynamics of future studies is indispensable. In this article we review four future studies in the Netherlands with an eye on their methods and related impact on research in sustainable technology. Although in content the four studies were quite similar, they were complementary in linking research strategies and policy objectives.     

Changes in the Ownership of Community Pharmacies: Policy Implications

Based on an 'independent contractor' model, most community pharmacies have traditionally been owned by self-employed pharmacists running them as small businesses. With the rapid erosion of this pattern of ownership, issues arise for public, professional and commercial policy makers. For health policy purposes, particular consideration needs to be given to options for fully utilizing the expertise of community pharmacists; securing equal access to services; and ensuring rationality and transparency in making decisions about the location of pharmacies.     

FTA and equity: New approaches to governance

FTA and equity addresses the need for multiple stakeholders’ participation in public policy and corporate decision making thus leading to more democratic societies. The need for more participative and inclusive decision making is due to the move from the technocratic nature of decision making towards more democratic processes, which is a result of the transformation of societies and situations as a result of various factors including globalisation, environmental concerns, more knowledge intensive work and lifestyle.The current paper addresses Future-oriented Technology Analyses (FTA) in the context of a better understanding of issues that ought to be considered by the FTA community so that it can support the quest for new forms of governance. The paper has been structured on the discussion of governance around three pillars: socio-cultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government.Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA community that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA activities in governance. Setting a new landscape for the FTA, the paper concludes with those issues where the FTA community is starting to devote attention, as well as those it still ought to consider.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching

A growing body of evidence finds that policy reaction functions vary substantially over different periods in the United States. This paper explores how moving to an environment in which monetary and fiscal regimes evolve according to a Markov process can change the impacts of policy shocks. In one regime monetary policy follows the Taylor principle and taxes rise strongly with debt; in another regime the Taylor principle fails to hold and taxes are exogenous. An example shows that a unique bounded non-Ricardian equilibrium exists in this environment. A computational model illustrates that because agents' decision rules embed the probability that policies will change in the future, monetary and tax shocks always produce wealth effects. When it is possible that fiscal policy will be unresponsive to debt at times, active monetary policy (like a Taylor rule) in one regime is not sufficient to insulate the economy against tax shocks in that regime and it can have the unintended consequence of amplifying and propagating the aggregate demand effects of tax shocks. The paper also considers the implications of policy switching for two empirical issues.