基于BP神经网络和ARIMA组合模型的中国入境游客量预测

游客量的预测和分析是旅游规划与管理的基础性、关键性工作.目前,游客量预测主要采用基于传统研究方法或人工神经网络技术的单项预测方法.近年来的研究表明,组合预测方法比单项预测具有更高的预测精度.本文提出了一种基于BP神经网络和ARIMA组合模型的游客量预测新方法,对中国入境旅游人次数的变化趋势进行了综合分析与预测,预测结果表明这种方法相对于单一的预测方法具有更高的精度,该模型在旅游预测中的应用是可行、有效的.     

旅华外国散客旅游流地理分布和网络结构研究

散客旅游是全球主流旅游方式,入境散客市场在中国入境旅游市场中也占据重要地位。文章主要采用问卷法采集数据,研究样本总量1451份,运用地图分析法研究旅华外国散客旅游流的分布和扩散规律,运用社会网络分析法研究旅华外国散客旅游流网络结构特征。研究发现:散客以北京、广州和上海为主要出入境口岸,以香港为辅助口岸,旅游线路以单目的地、短线为主,平均到访目的地数量较少;北京和广州是单目的地散客的主要旅游目的地;多点散客旅游流集中分布在中国人口线东南部,以"北京—西安"之间的流量最大,并形成了长三角、珠三角、川滇3个区域性集中分布区;散客旅游流网络规模较大,但网络密度较低,整体结构松散,发育程度较差;网络具有小世界特性;网络中的节点可以划分成综合性节点、枢纽节点、重要节点和一般节点4种角色类型。文章首次从宏观联系的视角对旅华外国散客旅游流进行了整体研究,丰富和拓展了中国入境旅游流研究内容。     

Changes in tourist personal values: impact of experiencing tourism products and services

This study examines how tourist personal value networks are constructed, and examines whether the structure of such networks differs if experience or consumption of tourism products or services influences the importance of these personal values. Through laddering and implication matrix, the abstraction score of each value can be computed and its position within the value structure identified for constructing a personal values network. By comparing the structure of the personal values network before and after traveling experience, the researchers found that tourists may hold identical values but assign them different degrees of importance, changing the value network structure. Thus, marketers targeting before-the-trip tourists should emphasize that their products or services meet tourist desires for “imaginative” and “an exciting life” and can help tourists achieve a feeling of “freedom.” If marketers targeting tourists who have just come back from a trip, they should emphasize the “cheerful” feelings of the trip and project an image of “happiness” and “freedom” to attract tourists and satisfy their desire for “inner harmony.” This finding not only provides marketers with information regarding tourist cognitions, but also helps marketers to effectively formulate marketing strategies.     

基于地方情感的旅游目的地选择模型建构研究

旅游目的地选择模型建构的研究多数以微观经济学、认知心理学与市场营销学等为基础理论,较少从个体与地方感情连结的视角探讨游客旅游目的地选择决策行为。文章以旅游目的地选择为研究主轴概念,结合地方情感概念中的旅游目的地意象和地方依恋,根据研究文献梳理结果、基础理论界定模型建构的路径变量与逻辑框架,进而提出基于地方情感的旅游目的地选择模型及模型过程步骤。文章建构模型表明,游客旅游目的地选择始于旅游目的地意象的形成,随着整体认知意象的深化,游客对旅游目的地将产生地方认同感,再通过选择决策行为选择意向的旅游目的地从事旅游活动,通过对旅游目的地旅游体验的功能满足产生依赖感,最终形成对旅游目的地的地方依恋感。研究成果对于旅游目的地选择具有交叉研究的创新价值,对于旅游目的地市场战略规划实践活动而言具有参照价值。     

A travel demand model for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong

The purpose of the study was to determine what exogenous variables best explained the travel demand for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong. The 12 years (1984–1995) annual time series data of ‘number of Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals’, ‘China disposable income per capita’, ‘consumer price indices in Hong Kong and China’ and ‘exchange rates’ was used to develop a travel demand model. Seven exogenous variables were selected for the model through a literature review. An OLS multiple regression analysis was performed to identify the ‘best’ subset of seven exogenous variables to determine the demand model. The results showed that travel demand for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong could be explained by ‘disposable income per capita’ and ‘relaxation of visa requirements’.     

Determinants of demand for international tourist flows to Turkey

This article describes the development and findings of a set of models used to identify the most important of the following selected variables influencing international tourist flows to Turkey: per capita income; relative prices; relative exchange rate; promotional expenditure (the Turkish Government has invested a substantial amount in promoting foreign tourism) and ‘special events’, eg political unrest. The demand for travel was measured both by the number of tourists, and by the total tourist expenditure. Data were obtained from secondary sources, and analysis was by least squares multiple regression. Income, price and exchange rate were found to be important factors but the impact of promotional expenditure was minimal     

Tourism,risk tolerance and competences: Travel organization and tourism hazards

Research on how individual tourists respond to risk has largely focussed on risk perceptions. This paper draws on behavioural economics to analyse the influence of risk tolerance and risk-related competences on how tourists organize their tourism travel, and the importance that they ascribe to specific types of tourism hazards. Whereas most tourism research on risk has been based on small, or highly age-specific surveys, or particular market segments, this paper utilises an innovative, large-scale survey drawn from the range of the UK population. There were significant differences between package tourists and individual ‘drifter’ tourists in terms of their socio-demographic characteristics, general and tourism-specific risk tolerance, and competence – both real and illusory – to manage risk. Age, and tolerance of both general and tourism-specific risks, were associated with the importance of hazards as deterrents to tourist behaviour, but the evidence for competences was mixed.     

Cultural Tourism And Flamenco In The City Of Cordoba (Spain)

Flamenco is a tourist product that can attract many visitors from around the world, and the city of Cordoba (Spain) has an important role in the origins of flamenco. This work studies whether the satisfaction of cultural tourists who visit the city can be influenced by cultural offers related to flamenco. To achieve this objective, fieldwork was carried out based on 709 surveys conducted in the most important flamenco “tablaos” (stages) of the city. The techniques of factorial analysis and linear adjustment were used. The results show that flamenco can be a product that complements the satisfaction of cultural tourists.     

Investigating tourist destination choice: Effect of destination image from social network members

This paper aims to investigate tourist destination choice, focusing on the research question how and to what extent the destination images of tourists' social network members influence their choice behavior. To this end, data were collected using a sequential stated adaptation choice experiment, in which respondents were requested to choose a tourist destination from a single choice set twice, once before and once after being informed about the destination image of social network members. A discrete choice model was estimated to investigate tourists’ choices. The estimation results revealed that the destination image of social network members allow tourists to update their existing knowledge toward destinations, through which their choice behavior is influenced. Tourists tend to adopt their destination image of social network members no matter whether they have a prior image or not. The magnitude of this social influence depends on the properties of the social networks.     

Exploring cultural tourist towns: Does authenticity matter?

This study applies various conceptualisations of authenticity to explore to what extent tourists appreciate the authenticity of cultural tourist towns. Using the visitor-employed photography (VEP) method, this study collected visitor-employed data in two cultural tourist towns in Shanghai, China to analyse tourists' personal enjoyable aesthetic experience. Results show that tourists were not overly concerned about objective authenticity as long as they had a positive and enjoyable experience, and that some tourists experienced and favoured existential and postmodern authenticity in the tourist towns. Results highlight the importance of designing entertainment activities and iconic attractions in a strip shape to engage tourists and enhance their enjoyment. Overall, results suggest that sophisticated design characterised by interaction of four townscape factors – nature setting, emotional design, spatial configuration, and commercialised elements – can shape tourists' enjoyable authentic experience. Findings have implications for tourism and tourist attraction operators in their planning, design, conservation, and promotional efforts.     

Understanding tourists’ leisure expenditure at the destination: a social network analysis

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to identify spending patterns of tourists in relation to the leisure activities performed throughout their day-by-day stay at the destination. Using the methodology of social network analysis (SNA), a tourists–activities bipartite network was identified following a pattern known as core–periphery. The effect of this structure (including typology, number, and timing of performing the activities) on tourism expenditure is analysed using a multiple regression model, to which were added different sociodemographic variables and other variables related to travel. In order to better understand the portfolio of activities, four examples of networks are studied and visually represented. This study reveals that through SNA between tourists and activities, we can study the behaviour of tourists in a novel way.     

A Quasi-experimental Method for Testing the Effectiveness of Ecolabel Promotion

Despite the existence of tourism ecolabels for more than 10 years, tourists’ decision making is still only marginally influenced by such labels and it appears that sustainability does not feature much in tourists’ general consumption behaviour. However, two recent studies found that tourists’ attitudes towards the Green Globe 21 (GG21) ecolabel in New Zealand were positive and the surveyed tourists appeared to have a high awareness of sustainability issues. Based on these findings, a quasiexperiment was conducted in the Christchurch Visitor Information Centre (CVIC) (main tourist hub of South Island) to investigate whether tourists’ positive attitudes towards ecolabels would result in increased observable interest of GG21 ecolabelled products. The purpose of this paper is to describe the complex quasi-experimental methodology that has been developed in an attempt to get further insight into tourist behaviour related to ecolabelled tourist products. During May and June 2003 the impact of a promotional campaign on tourists’ information search behaviour in the CVIC was tested. Observations of tourists and measurement of brochure up-take showed no increased interest in the ecolabel promotion campaign or the GG21 labelled products in the CVIC. The experimental methodology demonstrated that positive attitudes towards ecolabels are an unreliable predictor of responsible environmental tourist behaviour.     

旅游目的地品牌资产驱动因素模型研究——以凤凰古城为例

旅游目的地品牌资产逐渐成为学界关注的焦点,值得深入研究。该文基于已有研究成果,分析旅游目的地品牌资产与品牌知名度、品牌形象、品牌质量、品牌价值、品牌忠诚的结构关系,构建旅游目的地品牌资产驱动因素结构模型。以湖南省凤凰古城为案例,采用问卷调查法获得基础数据,分析发现:旅游目的地品牌知名度、品牌形象、品牌质量通过旅游目的地品牌价值与品牌忠诚对旅游目的地品牌资产产生显著影响,证实了旅游目的地品牌资产的二阶驱动因素模型。具体来看,旅游目的地品牌形象对品牌忠诚的影响最大,而旅游目的地品牌忠诚和品牌资产关联度最大。根据研究结论得到管理启示:第一,全面认识旅游目的地品牌资产的驱动因素,综合递增旅游目的地品牌资产。第二,着力突出旅游目的地品牌资产的核心要素,注重提升旅游目的地品牌形象。第三,认真建设旅游目的地品牌资产的关键内容,致力强化旅游目的地品牌忠诚。     

Are neighbour tourists more sensitive to crowding? The impact of distance on the crowding-out effect in tourism

The concept of the crowding-out effect has been employed in the tourism literature to analyse complex phenomena. However, there is limited insight into the crowding-out effect on tourists by tourists, and even less into the impact of distance on the crowding-out of tourists. This paper examines the relationship between crowding perceptions, tourists' attitudes toward crowding and the consequences of being crowded out. Results from a sample of 729 international tourists in Hong Kong suggest that there is a crowding-out effect on tourists by tourists, but this has only a marginal influence on the majority. The limited crowding-out effect is induced by tourists in general rather than by a single segment. The study also investigates the effect of distance on tourist crowding. The findings reveal a decaying effect of distance on tourists’ crowding perceptions, as neighbour tourists are more susceptible to tourist crowding than tourists from long-haul markets.     

Chinese heritage tourists to heritage sites: what are the effects of heritage motivation and perceived authenticity on satisfaction?

Much of the literature on authenticity is Western-centric, while little work addresses the concept in the Asian environment. The literature relating to authenticity from Asian tourists’ point of view is even underdeveloped. This study therefore aims to fill the knowledge gap by investigating Chinese tourists’ perspective of authenticity. It also examines tourists’ perceived authenticity as a multi-dimensional construct in a consumer-based model, the relationship with heritage motivation and tourist satisfaction. Findings indicate that Chinese tourists’ perceptions of authenticity are closely related to objective and constructive authenticity. The study demonstrates that heritage motivation has a significant positive influence on perceived authenticity and that perceived authenticity has a strong ability to predict tourist satisfaction.     

目的地网络界面对旅游者体验及品牌形象的影响

旅游目的地推广营销所使用的官方网站、微博、电子商务平台等网络渠道构成了旅游者接触目的地的网络界面。旅游目的地网络界面特征主要包含信息价值、友好性和交互性3个要素。为探索旅游目的地网络界面对旅游者体验及品牌形象的影响,构建了旅游目的地网络界面特征、旅游者体验与目的地品牌形象的结构方程模型。研究发现,旅游目的地网络界面特征的3个要素通过功能体验和情感体验两个中介因素影响游客对目的地品牌形象的感知,但信息价值对情感体验的影响不显著。基于以上结论,对旅游目的地优化网络界面提出了策略建议。     

游客满意:国家战略视角下的理论建构与实践进路

从创汇导向的国际旅游目的地发展到以游客满意为导向的国民旅游福祉提升,是包括中国在内的世界旅游发展战略正在经历的趋势性变革。游客在旅游基础理论研究和旅游经济发展实践中已经被事实上赋予了主体地位,游客满意应当、也可以成为当代旅游发展理论的学术基石、国家旅游发展战略的思想基础和目的地管理实践的政策创新。作者团队5年的全国游客满意度调查实践表明:城市政府牵头、培育游客和市民共享的生活空间、完善商业接待和公共服务体系等,是提升游客满意度的有效路径。     

新生代游客涉入度与文化认同对红色旅游忠诚度的影响研究

红色旅游是红色文化宣传和教育的实现方式之一,但作为旅游主力军的新生代游客对红色文化的认同逐渐式微,存在认同危机风险,并对红色旅游的后续发展和持续经营产生影响,已成为当今显著且亟待关注的社会现象。本研究运用文化认同理论,以新生代游客为研究群体,尝试探索影响新生代游客文化认同的因素并寻找增强其红色旅游忠诚度的作用机制,由此建构新生代游客涉入度、文化认同与红色旅游忠诚度影响关系模型并进行实证验证。研究发现：(1)新生代游客涉入度对红色旅游的文化认同和忠诚度均具有显著的正向影响,其中对文化认同的影响更为显著;(2)新生代游客对红色旅游的文化认同正向影响忠诚度;(3)文化认同在新生代游客涉入度与忠诚度之间存在部分中介效应。本研究揭示了新生代游客涉入度对培育红色旅游忠诚度的重要作用,拓展了文化认同的应用边界;认为增强新生代游客的涉入度,培育其文化认同,对于忠诚度及红色旅游持续经营和后续发展具有积极的现实意义。     

Investigating International Tourists’ Intention to Revisit Myanmar Based on Need Gratification,Flow Experience and Perceived Risk

Satisfaction plays an important role in creating loyalty to a tourism destination. However, ensuring consistent satisfactory trip experiences for tourists and increasing their revisit intention remain challenging for many international tourism destinations, including Myanmar. We conducted a survey with 465 international tourists visiting Myanmar. Results indicate that need gratification and flow can increase tourist satisfaction. The perceived risks of tourism destination can decrease tourist satisfaction. Satisfaction is an important factor to mediate the influence of need gratification, flow, and perceived risks. A tourist’s intention to revisit Myanmar can be largely improved by attending to these independent and mediating factors.     

An application of network analysis on tourist attractions: The case of Xinjiang,China

This study constitutes a novel application of network analysis to explore the underlying mechanisms of tourist attraction network informed by tourist flows. Using survey data collected from a sample of 456 tourists visiting Xinjiang, China, the study applies the Quadratic Assignment Procedure (QAP) to test the relationships between region proximity, grade proximity, and tenure proximity, and the attraction network determined by tourists' free choice movements. Results show that while region proximity and tenure proximity among major attractions in a destination were positively related to attraction network, grade proximity was negatively related to the attraction network, indicating that same grade attractions were mostly competing with one another for tourists. The study contributes to the methodological development of social network analysis in tourism and advances understanding of demand-driven network relationships among tourist attractions in a destination. Destination management implications are discussed.