Is the European Capital Market Ready for the Single Currency?

This paper defines, and investigates the extent of, capital market integration in the European Ecu government bond market sector utilising Johansen's (1992) multivariate analysis. Evidence suggests the yield system is driven by a unique common trend, although we reject the zero-sum restriction on the cointegrating vector. The former finding is consistent with our definition of full Ecu capital market integration, the latter is not, although it is explainable by failure of the expectations hypothesis. Our results support market utilisation of the extant Ecu yield curve as the initial benchmark for pricing euro-denominated debt securities following stage III EMU.     

Testing for Fraud in the Residential Mortgage Market: How Much Did Early-Payment-Defaults Overpay for Housing?

Current explanations for the high rate of default and foreclosure in the U.S. emphasize house price fluctuations and lax lending criteria. Another explanation for default and foreclosure, which has generally been neglected in the academic literature but not by the FBI, is fraud. One impediment to identifying and measuring fraud is the lack of statistical tests capable of detecting it. This paper proposes a simple method to detect transactions where fraud may have occurred. The models proposed here are important for at least three reasons. First they can document the role of fraud in the mortgage foreclosure crisis. Second, they can serve as part of a forensic effort designed to detect and deter mortgage fraud. Third, they demonstrate that mortgage fraud distorts house price indexes because it artificially elevates house prices during the period of fraud followed by a subsequent collapse due to the foreclosure sales. Accordingly, fraud can give the false impression that foreclosure lowers area house prices when it actually artificially inflates them. This suggests an alternative interpretation for the recent empirical literature on externalities from foreclosure.     

Do Newly Listed Derivatives Affect the Market Risk Premium in a Thin Stock Market?

This study examines the effects on the stock market unitaryrisk premium and volatility associated with the listing of stockand stock index derivatives in Switzerland. Based on a univariateGARCH (1,1) specification of the stock index variance and atime-varying unitary risk premium representation, we can rejectthe hypothesis that stock and stock index derivatives listingsdo not affect the total risk premium. Contrarily to previousempirical evidence, we find that derivatives listings affectboth the conditional market returns’ variance and theunitary risk premium through structural shocks. The gradualmarket completion hypothesis is further corroborated in that,cumulatively, the three stock and stock index options futuresderivatives listings reduced the unitary risk premium whilethe marginal impact of each successive listing decayed. JELClassification: G12, G14.     

Can Markets Discipline Government Agencies? Evidence from the Weather Derivatives Market

We analyze the role of financial markets in shaping the incentives of government agencies using a unique empirical setting: the weather derivatives market. We show that the introduction of weather derivative contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) improves the accuracy of temperature measurement by 13% to 20% at the underlying weather stations. We argue that temperature‐based financial markets generate additional scrutiny of the temperature data measured by the National Weather Service, which motivates the agency to minimize measurement errors. Our results have broader implications: the visibility and scrutiny generated by financial markets can potentially improve the efficiency of government agencies.     

China Is the Market Share Leader

China IPO activity reaches $14 billion in Q3 of 2007, doubles from a year earlier. Number of companies listing in Hong Kong and Mainland China in Q3 hits quarterly record.     

Where Is the Market? Evidence from Cross-Listings in the United States

We analyze the location of stock trading for firms with a UScross-listing. The fraction of trading that occurs in the UnitedStates tends to be larger for companies from countries thatare geographically close to the United States and feature lowfinancial development and poor insider trading protection. Forcompanies based in developed countries, trading volume in theUnited States is larger if the company is small, volatile, andtechnology-oriented, while this does not apply to emerging countryfirms. The domestic turnover rate increases in the cross-listingyear and remains higher for firms based in developed markets,but not for emerging market firms. Domestic trading volume actuallydeclines for companies from countries with poor enforcementof insider trading regulation.     

Does Integrated Reporting Matter to the Capital Market?

Integrated reporting (<IR>) is an emerging international corporate reporting initiative to address limitations to extant corporate reporting approaches, which are commonly criticized for being both voluminous and disjointed. While <IR> is gaining in popularity, current momentum has been limited due to a lack of clear evidence of its benefits. Utilizing the most suitable setting currently available, being discretionary disclosures made by listed companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, this study provides evidence that analyst forecast error reduces as a company's level of alignment with the <IR> framework increases. Further, the improved alignment is associated with a subsequent reduction in the cost of equity capital for certain reporting companies. The results are obtained after controlling for factors relating to financial transparency and the issuance of standalone non‐financial reports, which suggests that <IR> is providing incrementally useful information to the capital market over and above existing reporting mechanisms.     

Is There Market Discipline in the European Insurance Industry? An Analysis of the German Insurance Market

Economists often argue in favour of market discipline as a means to distribute resources effectively and efficiently. These same arguments likely influence decision-makers as they incorporate market discipline as the third pillar of Solvency II, the European insurance regulatory scheme currently being implemented. Success for Solvency II, then, is dependent in part on the strength of influence found in market discipline. Our research indicates that the German insurance market demonstrates the existence of such discipline, although the actual effect appears smaller than previously found in the U.S. insurance market. Solvency II, therefore, seems to be following an appropriate path, although further research is needed to evaluate whether or not enhancements to market discipline within the European market are warranted.     

Taming the blockchain beast? Regulatory implications for the cryptocurrency Market

This paper uses a unique dataset of 120 regulatory events from five classes to test the relevance of the regulatory framework for cryptocurrency value. Time-series market-wide estimates and panel estimates for 300 individual coins and tokens show statistically and economically significant impact of anti-money laundering and issuance regulation. Tighter regulation and more active role of government decrease cryptocurrency prices, evidencing that potentially lower risks and wider adoption commonly attributed to the establishment of the regulatory framework do not compensate for respective efficiency and consumer utility losses. The market is generally efficient in reflecting regulatory information in cryptocurrency prices.     

Is Financial Flexibility a Priced Factor in the Stock Market?

This paper develops a factor analysis–based measure for shifts in corporate financial flexibility (FFLEX) that can be observed from public accounting information. Companies that experience positive shifts in FFLEX are associated with higher future investment growth opportunities. We show that FFLEX is a robust determinant of future stock returns. Firms that have increased their financial flexibility are associated with lower stock returns in the subsequent period. A zero‐cost return portfolio produces a significant positive monthly premium of 0.69%, which is driven by covariance (risk). Risk inherent in the flexibility factor is not explained away by either prominent pricing characteristics or factors.     

How Does the Market for Corporate Control Function for Property Companies?

We investigate 95 takeovers of property companies all over the world and find that only two of those are hostile. To determine the effectiveness of the market for corporate control, we first study characteristics of targets and acquirers compared to a control sample, using the complete global universe of listed property companies during the most recent takeover wave (1999–2004). We find that the inefficient management hypothesis holds for both REITs and non-REITs, as targets exhibit significant underperformance before takeovers. In the second part of this study, we investigate shareholder wealth effects following takeovers and confirm previous findings that abnormal returns for targets and bidders are distinctly different for the real estate sector. Moreover, we show that this difference not only holds for REIT-to-REIT mergers, but also for mergers of real estate firms without a REIT-status.

Does the Use of Foreign Currency Derivatives Affect Firms' Market Value? Evidence from Colombia

High returns in emerging markets over the last decade have attracted international investors. This study investigates if and how economic or political news affects stock market activity in two emerging markets: Argentina and Turkey. Our analysis shows that political and economic news influences both the volatility of returns and trading volume in these markets to varying degrees. Results suggest that both economic and political factors, as well as specific market characteristics, should be taken into consideration by international investors when making investment decisions in emerging markets.     

Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment

We provide evidence of private information in the foreign exchange market. The evidence comes from the introduction of trading in Tokyo over the lunch hour. Lunch-return variance doubles with the introduction of trading, which cannot be due to public information since the flow of public information did not change with the trading rules. We then exploit microstructure theory to discriminate between the two alternatives: private information and mispricing. Four key results support the predictions of private-information models. Three of these involve changes in the intraday volatility U-shape. The fourth is that opening trade causes mispricing's share in variance to fall.     

Is sustainability rating material to the market?

This study examines whether information about a firm's engagement in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices is material to market participants. Evidence from a sample of 1856 initial public offerings (IPOs) by U.S. companies for the 2007–2018 period robustly documents that firms for which there is available ESG performance information prior to going public exhibit higher underpricing due to a positive market response. Such a reaction is validated by agency cost-reducing practices that ESG-rated firms follow prior to the IPO, the superior post-IPO market performance they exhibit in terms of equity financing, and the higher share of financially sophisticated investors they attract compared to their ESG-unrated peers. Overall, our results highlight that it pays off to do good and to have the right investors; however, firms’ good ESG practices need to be visible to the market, through rating practices, to reap the benefits.     

Say on Pay: Is It Needed? Does It Work?

A leading compensation practitioner reviews “Say on Pay” rules, those corporate practices giving shareholders the right to vote on executive compensation. The assumption behind “Say on Pay” is that managers may be overpaid because directors fail to provide adequate oversight. O'Byrne questions this underlying assumption. He provides substantial evidence that directors do a poor job overseeing executive pay and that directors have weak incentives to pursue shareholder interests in executive pay. He also finds that “Say on Pay voting is sensitive to differences in pay for performance, but so forgiving that extraordinary pay premiums are required to elicit a majority ‘no’ vote”; and “that three quarters of institutional investors have lower SOP voting quality… than the average investor and almost all have a short‐term focus, with much greater vote sensitivity to current year grant date pay premiums than to long‐term pay alignment and cost.” The common corporate practice of providing competitive target compensation regardless of past performance leads to low alignment of pay and performance. Unfortunately, directors have little incentive to protect shareholder interests “because they are paid labor providers, just like management, not stewards of substantial personal capital.”     

Does It Pay to Work in the Public Sector?

This paper uses microeconomic data from the British Household Panel and General Household Surveys to describe how the distribution of pay differs between the public and private sectors in 1983 and in the early 1990s. Separate analyses by gender and education group reveal that it is women and those with intermediate-level qualifications who do best in the public sector. The large differences between the shapes of the conditional (that is, holding age and education constant) distributions of wages in the public and private sectors are demonstrated using quantile regressions estimated separately for each education group. The paper also exploits the longitudinal structure of the data used to assess how much of these differences can be explained by the unobserved characteristics of individuals. JEL classifications: J31, J45.     

Are Banks Still Special When There Is a Secondary Market for Loans?

Secondary market trading in loans elicits a significant positive stock price response by a borrowing firm's equity investors. We find the major reason for this response is the alleviation of borrowing firms’ financial constraints. We also find that new loan announcements are associated with a positive stock price effect even when prior loans made to the same borrower already trade on the secondary market. We conclude that the special role of banks has changed due to their ability to create an active secondary loan market while simultaneously maintaining their traditional role as information producers.     

Is American business working for the poor?

At first glance, poverty seems to have little to do with business. When most people--managers included--think about poverty, they assume that people are poor because they are isolated from the mainstream economy, not productive participants in it. But according to Harvard University professors Mary Jo Bane and David Ellwood, this is a misleading image of the true face of poverty in the United States today. Most poor adults--and a full 90% of poor children--live in families where work is the norm, not the exception. Poor people often work or want to work. But at the low-wage end of the American economy, having a job is no guarantee of avoiding poverty. Poverty is a business issue, then, because the American poor are part of the American work force. And this poses a problem for managers. In a more competitive and fast-changing economic environment, the performance of companies increasingly depends on the capabilities of their employees. In response to this human-resource challenge, more and more managers are embracing the language of "empowerment". And yet how can low-wage employees believe empowerment when their experience of work is, quite literally, impoverishment? It is unlikely that American companies can create the work force of the future with the poverty policies of the past. Fortunately, there are some simple policy mechanisms that can assist the working poor without putting an undue burden on business. Enacting them, however, requires managers to see poverty policy as one part of a national human-resource strategy that links the strategic concerns of companies to a broad social agenda.     

Does the Stock Market Compensate Banks for Diversifying into the Insurance Business?

This paper explores a wide range of corporate restructurings, all available deals from wire services, in the banking and insurance sectors that led to bancassurance ventures. An event study methodology is employed to calculate excess returns on and around the deals’ announcement date. Using both univariate and multivariate analysis the paper finds bank driven mergers, deal's size and regional categorization all triggering positive and significant market reactions. Unlike the univariate framework, multivariate analysis shows that geographic focus and language are not significant factors. The results also indicate that markets are indifferent with respect to bank withdrawals from the bank‐insurance operations. Finally, Canadian, U.S. and European bank‐insurance deals produce positive results, while Australasian bidders offer statistically insignificant equity returns.     

Are Territorial Rating Models Outdated in Residential Property Insurance Markets? Evidence From the Florida Property Insurance Market

The fundamental shift in rating methodology from historical loss costs to catastrophe modeling for windstorm coverage calls into question the accuracy of rates developed using rating territories. Using premiums and modeled average annual loss (AAL) estimates from Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (Citizens) in Florida, this article analyzes the use of distance to coast (DtC) as a rating variable in providing coverage for the windstorm peril in homeowners insurance. Catastrophe models used to generate AAL costs do not rely on the same application of the law of large numbers as using historical loss costs and thus allows for more granular pricing of the windstorm peril. The results show that DtC, a rating variable that is property specific, more closely aligns premiums and AALs than territorial rating, and allows more granular pricing of the windstorm peril. More granular risk based pricing provides better incentives for homeowners regarding location and mitigation choices and may help reduce aggregate exposure to windstorm damages in the long run.