Export survival and the dynamics of experience

This paper focuses on developing countries’ pioneer exports to the OECD and obtains several important results on export dynamics, linking export experience and export survival. Using product level data at the SITC 5-digit level for 114 developing countries over the 1962–2009 period, we show that prior export experience obtained in non-OECD markets significantly increases survival of pioneer exports toward the OECD. The experience does not need to last long, as gaining experience for more than two years does not confer any additional benefit. The effect of experience depreciates rapidly with time: a break in export experience prior to entering the OECD reduces the advantage on survival. Finally, the role of prior export experience is particularly relevant for survival in the first two years upon entry into the OECD. The geographic dynamic of export experience reveals that experience is acquired in neighboring, easy to access markets before reaching more distant, richer partners and ultimately serving the OECD with a higher probability of survival.     

昆明出口加工区建设发展问题探讨

根据国际上一般出口加工区的有关理论,昆明出口加工区的发展有一定优势,也存在自身发展的局限性,随着国际和国内形势的不断变化,昆明出口加工区又面临新的机遇和挑战。云南面向东南亚、南亚开放,以及中国东盟贸易自由区建成,需要昆明出口加工区这个平台来促进对外开放,加快外向型经济的建设,随着国际性加工贸易的转移,发达国家向发展中国家转移,以及我国东部沿海地区加工贸易向中西部地区转移,昆明出口加工区可以有所作为。     

中国与墨西哥对美国出口贸易相似度研究

本文运用显示性比较优势、出口结构相似度等指数对中、墨两国在美国市场上的出口情况进行了分析,对两国的优势产业、出口竞争力以及两国在美国市场上的出口相似程度进行了比较。     

国际分割生产条件下我国的出口增长问题

自2009年开始中国出口总额一直保持世界第一的排名。我国的出口以工业制成品为主,而制成品生产的主要特征是国际分割生产。本文对国际分割生产条件下我国出口增长现状和存在的问题进行深入分析,提出了通过提升我国出口质量,以促进我国出口增长的对策。认为我国亟需转变出口增长模式,提高出口产品的技术含量和质量,获得国际分割生产的技术效应,促进出口产业链和产业的升级。     

Export variety and export performance: empirical evidence from East Asia

Does product variety matter for export performance? This has been suggested by the new trade theory. In the present paper, we investigate empirically whether increasing export variety has contributed to the export growth of 10 East Asian countries. In the paper we calculate direct measures of export variety and estimate pooled annual export equations for 10 East Asian countries. The econometric results suggest that producing highly differentiated export goods gives a competitive advantage which allows to sell more products.     

中国企业对外直接投资对出口贸易影响分析

对外直接投资(FDI)与出口贸易的关系因各国的具体国情不同,各学者采用的研究方法的不同而呈现出显著的差异。本文采用协整理论分析中国的对外直接投资与出口贸易(1984-2006)的关系,得出二者存在长期均衡关系,并计量出二者的误差修正模型。     

Demand, comparative advantage and economic geography in international trade: Evidence from the OECD

Demand, Comparative Advantage and Economic Geography in International Trade: Evidence from the OECD. — This paper examines the influence of demand on the pattern of net trade for 17 OECD countries. It is found that demand differences are important as a cause of international trade. In fact, for the majority of countries, demand factors explain more of the net trade pattern than do factor proportions. The evidence offers some support for the modern geography and trade theories: high domestic demand in an industry leads to a net export for the majority of cases. The evidence is, however, not clear-cut. Moreover, a demand bias in favour of domestic varieties leads to a net export. Here, the evidence is clear-cut.     

Optimal Export Taxes with an Endogenous Location

Export tax policy is one of the most debated issues in many developing countries. Those countries with strong natural advantages in the production of primary commodities, such as agricultural and livestock products, coffee, jute, rubber, and others, have attained at particular times a position as dominant suppliers in international trade. They have often used export taxes on those commodities to obtain foreign exchange and/or government tax revenues. This paper provides a normative analysis to examine how the inclusion of economic space affects export tax policy and to compare optimal export taxes under endogenous location with optimal export taxes under exogenous location, both in the short run and in the long run.     

出口企业的收汇风险及防范

我国加入WTO之后,与世界市场的联系更加紧密,出口不断扩大。但在我国的出口企业中,中小企业占绝大多数,从事国际贸易的合格专业人员相对较少。出口企业驾驭市场的能力参差不齐,面临的出口收汇风险要比市场化程度较高的发达国家大得多。本文从出口企业收汇方式入手,首先分析了出口企业收汇面临的主要风险,然后结合实际重点探讨了收汇风险的防范策略。     

Foreign direct investment, processing trade, and the sophistication of China's exports

China's export structure has shown a rapid shift towards more sophisticated industries. While some believe that this trend is a result of processing trade and foreign direct investment, the evidence is mixed. This paper examines variations in level of export sophistication across China's manufacturing industries. We find that an industry's level of export sophistication is positively related to the share of wholly foreign owned enterprises from OECD countries and the share of processing exports of foreign-invested enterprises, and negatively related to the share of processing exports of indigenous Chinese enterprises. Evidence from the relative export prices of Chinese goods, which measure within-product export sophistication, shows a similar pattern.     

Export subsidies and minimum access guarantees in agricultural trade: a developing country perspective

The paper presents a framework for and results from a quantitative analysis of two proposals to GATT, made as part of an effort at containing or rolling back the spread of non-tariff barriers in agriculture. The first proposes export subsidies, which would be financed by the producers themselves, requiring no government outlay. The second calls for a minimum access for importers. This analysis examines the magnitude of the effects on trade flows, world prices, the impact on the production, consumption, and trade of the OECD countries and on foreign exchange earnings of less developed countries (LDCs), of minimum access as applied to sugar trade — one of the most protected products in OECD countries and one with great potential for LDC exporters. Results are then compared with an analysis of more comprehensive trade liberalization in the sugar market, i.e., complete removal of trade barriers in all OECD countries.     

Exporting against Risk? Theory and Evidence from Public Export Insurance Schemes in OECD Countries

This paper endeavours to find out in how far public export insurance schemes foster international trade. Thereto, a gravity equation is derived, which accounts for the risk of financial losses in case firms contract defaulting foreign buyers. Empirical results suggest that OECD countries issuing trade credits with generous state-guarantees did not, during the 1999 to 2005 period, witness more exports towards politically and commercially more unstable low-income countries. Rather, publicly indemnified trade finance has promoted exports, to a modest degree, towards high and middle-income countries, where financial intermediaries and markets provide viable alternatives to hedge against payment risks.     

“外转内”背景下浙江商贸流通业态结构优化与升级

自2008年以来,面对全球经济危机,欧美等发达国家经济下滑,依靠外单生产加工为主的浙江外销制造业企业面临利润缩水与发展转型,即许多外贸制造业企业已经试着将市场关注重点由外销转为内销,简称"外转内"。基于"外转内"背景,文章对浙江商贸流通业态结构构建了优化、整合与升级的模型和路径,并提出优化与升级的对策,这在一定程度上对解除浙江外销制造业企业产品的营销困境有转嫁与促进作用,对浙江整体商贸流通业结构的优化与升级有重要的现实意义。     

Innovations and manufacturing export performance in the OECD countries

This paper addresses two puzzles in international trade, namelywhy traditional estimates of income elasticities of exportsare implausibly high and why export growth varies much moremarkedly across countries than can be explained by changes inprice competitiveness and variations in income growth in exportmarkets. Using data for 18 OECD countries it is shown that marketintegration and the level of technology and competitivenesscan, to some extent, explain these two puzzles.     

Impact of ICT on trade in different technology groups: analysis and implications

The link between ICT use and trade flows has been widely discussed in the literature. It has been argued that the use of ICT contributes to the fall of trade costs. The analysis presented identifies the role of a specific ICT variable, namely the extent of use of Internet by the business community, in international trade. The export flows between 40 countries (OECD countries plus Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa) are analyzed. The results are presented for different technology groups of products, from high-tech to low-tech. The relationship between the use of Internet and trade in ICT goods is also considered.     

国际金融危机下广州外贸出口形势分析

此次金融危机对广州的外贸出口造成了巨大冲击,本文从出口市场、出口商品、出口方式和出口企业等外贸出口的各个环节详细分析了金融危机对广州外贸的影响。     

美国出口倍增计划对广东外经贸的影响及对策

美国的对外经济政策发生变化将会引起其它国家相应政策一定程度的调整以及世界经济的变动。中国是美国第三大出口市场,广东省对美国贸易总额占全国对关贸易总额的30％左右,美国实施出口倍增计划对中国特别是对广东的外经贸发展必然产生影响,这种影响既有有利方面也有不利方面。广东的应对措施主要应包括：继续坚持实施互利共赢的开放战略;抓住机遇,建立与美国以及其他国家进出口企业的广泛联系;重构广东的自主创新战略;提高出口商品价格,缓解人民币汇率升值和出口成本增加的压力;发挥制造业优势,积极参与国际经济合作,提升国际竞争力;注重国际市场安全研究,加强市场多元化战略的实施,保护海外利益。     

“外转内”背景下浙江商贸流通业态结构优化与升级

自2008年以来,面对全球经济危机,欧美等发达国家经济下滑,依靠外单生产加工为主的浙江外销制造业企业面lI盏利润缩水与发展转型,即许多外贸制造业企业已经试着将市场关注重点由外销转为内销,简称“外转内”。基于“外转内”背景,文章对浙江商贸流通业态结构构建了优化、整合与升级的模型和路径,并提出优化与升级的对策,这在一定程度上对解除浙江外销制造业企业产品的营销困境有转嫁与促进作用,对浙江整体商贸流通业结构的优化与升级有重要的现实意义。     

Exports,Product Differentiation and Knowledge Spillovers

Empirical studies on aggregate export behavior have recently emphasized the role played by innovation as the main force driving product differentiation and competitiveness for developed countries. These studies treat foreign innovation as a variable that affects negatively national export shares. We incorporate the impact of foreign innovation in a standard new trade theory model and find that, if knowledge spillovers exist, foreign knowledge accumulation could even have a positive effect on national exports. We then test the model using aggregate export data for a set of 21 OECD economies and find that the foreign stock of knowledge affects exports positively for the less advanced countries in the sample and negatively for the G7 economies. JEL Classification Numbers: F12, O31, C22, C23     

中国能源消费与出口贸易关系实证研究

本文运用格兰杰因果关系检验以及脉冲响应和方差分解方法,分别对中国能源消费与出口贸易之间的因果、动态以及定量关系进行了深入研究。研究发现:中国能源消费与出口贸易之间存在从出口贸易到能源消费的单向因果关系,出口贸易波动将对能源消费产生持续较大的影响,出口贸易对能源消费具有较强的依赖性。