上海证券市场与美国、中国香港证券市场的互动特征

在证券市场领域,美国市场对中国香港市场和上海市场均有影响。在上海市场和中国香港市场之间,上海市场的变动影响着中国香港市场,但并未发现中国香港市场影响上海市场的证据。这说明,上海证券市场已经成为中国区域的主导性市场。     

ON EXPORT-LED GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA AND CANADA: COINTEGRATION, CAUSALITY AND STRUCTURAL STABILITY*

This paper uses cointegration and vector-error correction (VEC) modelling to investigate whether the export-led growth hypothesis applies to Australian and Canadian exports and labour productivity. The Johansen (1988) procedure is used to test whether manufacturing and aggregate measures of exports and labour productivity are cointegrated. Exports and labour productivity are found to be cointegrated, suggesting the export-led growth hypothesis holds for the small, open Australian and Canadian economies, although the estimated cointegrating vectors suggest the relationship is of small order. The tests suggested in Hansesn (1992), for parameter stability in relationships with I(1) variables, are estimated to examine if the parameters estimated from the Johansen procedure are unstable and whether the null of cointegration can be rejected in favour of structural change. No evidence is found of parameter instability in either the Australian or Canadian long-run relationships at conventional significance levels. Estimation of VEC models suggests that exports are seen to cause productivity growth, although the quantitative impacts are again small. The reverse causality is rejected for both countries, except for the Canadian manufacturing sector for which there is a small, significant positive effect of labour productivity on manufactured exports.     

产业结构变迁与产业政策选择——以东亚经济体为例

在系统梳理已有相关文献的基础上,提出了一个关于产业结构变迁与产业政策选择的分析框架。产业结构变迁的规律(即配第—克拉克定律)是一条客观经济规律,当政府顺应这一规律,它就能选择性地运用产业政策来干预、影响甚至主导产业结构变迁的进程和速度。在不同的经济体制和发展水平下,政府会选择不同的产业政策,进而导致四种不同类型的产业结构变迁形式。以中国大陆、港台地区及韩国等东亚经济体为例,对上述问题进行了探析。     

A REVISIT OF INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKET LINKAGES: NEW EVIDENCE FROM RANK TESTS FOR NONLINEAR COINTEGRATION

Based on a theory proposed for the possible link between financial market integration and nonlinear cointegration, this study reinvestigates international stock market linkages by performing both conventional linear cointegration tests and newly developed rank tests for nonlinear cointegration. The stock price indexes of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States are used, with daily data spanning from 29 May 1992 to 10 April 2001. Much more evidence of market integration emerges from nonlinear than linear cointegration analysis, suggesting that comovements among various national stock markets may well take nonlinear forms. Our findings challenge the conclusion of market segmentation reached in some previous studies that only conducted linear cointegration analysis.     

EFFECTS OF CHINA AND INDIA ON MANUFACTURED EXPORTS OF THE G7 ECONOMIES

This article analyzes the effects of China and India on manufactured exports of the G7 economies. The following three findings stand out. First, the rivalry effect of China is robustly significant in all investigated markets, including the world and the G7 countries collectively and individually, while the rivalry effect of India is significant in the French, Italian, Japanese, and world markets but insignificant in other markets. Second, the rivalry effect of China in the world market is substantial in 13 of 22 manufacturing industries, and most pronounced for textiles, telecom equipment, fabricated metal products, computing machinery, and furniture, while this effect of India is significant only in one industry (basic metals). Third, Germany is the only G7 economy that appears not to be affected by China's rivalry effect. Germany has also been more successful than other G7 economies in penetrating the Chinese market. (JEL O4, F1)     

REDUNDANCY, NATURAL TURNOVER AND THE PARADOX OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE

The properties of the labour market are such that moderate employment shifts can be accommodated by, and might even encourage, the natural movement of labour between jobs. But the scale and extent of employment adjustments in recent years has produced an altogether different response. Voluntary movement has fallen dramatically as unemployment has risen. Redundancies have increased in importance in absolute and relative terms. The pace of adjustment in recent years has reduced the natural flexibility of the labour market and has created a serious impediment to the optimal distribution of labour. Moreover, an economic doctrine which emphasizes the importance of flexibility and personal choice in the labour market, has effectively reduced both.     

PORTFOLIO SELECTION BETWEEN A MATURE MARKET AND SELECTED EMERGING MARKETS INDICES IN THE PRESENCE OF STRUCTURAL BREAKS

The paper examines the influence of the structural breaks on the optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedge effectiveness index (HEI) of risk‐minimizing portfolios composed of S&P500 and selected emerging markets’ indices from East Europe, Asia and South America. We employ a bivariate DCC‐EGARCH models without and with structural breaks and we find better estimation features when structural breaks are included in the model. However, we do not find evidence that insertion of structural breaks increases portfolio hedging performances. The differences that exist between optimal weights, hedge ratios and HEI values are so small that tangible economic benefit for international investors do not exist.     

CHOICE,CONFUSION AND COMPETITION IN THE MARKET FOR MARKETS: AIMING FOR AIM IN THREE JUNIOR ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES

Abstract. A review of literature on the theory of stock exchange competition provides the basis for a template model of a successful stock exchange. Three junior stock exchanges in East Asia which stated their ambitions to become a regional exchange for emerging firms are compared with the template and with the AIM section of the London Stock Exchange; the Tokyo Stock Exchange Mothers, Hong Kong Stock Exchange Growth Enterprise Market and the Singapore Exchange Catalist. Our analysis indicates that the AIM and Catalist markets have the closest fit to our template model, while the GEM and Mothers show material departures from it.     

城市与区域关系演化过程及新时代特征

城市与区域关系是定位和指导城市与区域发展的立足点,理清城市与区域关系是实现科学发展的重要保障。分析城市与区域的基本关系及其演化动因和演化过程,以此考察我国传统的城市与区域关系特点,以及全球化与知识经济时代城市与区域关系的新特征和发展趋势,指出我国城市与区域关系处于区域框架指导下的城市主导发展时期;新时期,城市的功能性和区域的整体性是城市与区域关系的核心。在一定时期内,我国城市与区域对立统一关系依然存在,同时,随着城市实体地域与功能地域的空间扩展,城市与区域的边界趋于模糊,城市与区域地理单元走向交织缠绕和相互融合。     

THE PRICE OF SILENCE: MARKETS FOR NOISE LICENSES AND AIRPORTS*

This article presents a market design for the management of noise pollution created by aircraft traffic around airports. A local market for noise licenses allows noise generators to compensate noise victims and to meet social acceptability. We show that the market allows the market designer to implement the social planner's optimal allocation of flights as long as the latter does not put too high a weight in his/her objective function on firms' profits compared to the disutility of noise pollution. The fact that local representatives of noise victims may be strategic players does not fundamentally alter this finding. Because of the market auctioneer's information constraints, noise licenses are likely to distribute windfall gains to residents, which alters the urban structure in the long run.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND THE GROWTH OF INDUSTRIAL SECTORS: EMPIRICAL TEST OF A GPT MODEL

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of a model of structural change and the growth of industrial sectors. The model analyzes the process of diffusion of general‐purpose technologies (GPTs) and how this affects the dynamic performance of manufacturing and service industries. The empirical analysis studies the dynamics and the determinants of labor productivity growth for a large number of sectors in 18 OECD countries over the period 1970–2005. The results of dynamic panel data and cross‐sectional analysis provide support for the empirical validity of the model. Industries that are close to the core of ICT‐related GPTs are characterized by greater innovative capabilities and have recently experienced a more dynamic performance. Relatedly, countries that have been able to shift their industrial structure toward these high‐opportunity manufacturing and service industries have grown more rapidly.     

社会分工制度下生产性服务业与制造业关系新探——以江苏省为例

技术进步、分工深化和报酬递增,都是社会分工制度演进的具体表现。本文以江苏省数据为例对社会分工制度下生产性服务业与制造业的关系进行了实证分析,尤其考察了生产性服务业内部各部门对制造业的不同影响。研究结果为社会分工制度及其理论创新与发展提供了实践依据,也为江苏省及各地区产业结构升级与经济发展方式转型提供了政策依据和有益借鉴。