外商直接投资对我国经济增长效应的实证分析

从20世纪80年代以来,外商直接投资(FDI)在我国经济与贸易的发展中起着越来越重要的作用。加入WTO以来,外资以更快速度和更多元化的形式涌入国内,这将对经济增长发挥重要的推动作用。一、外商直接投资(FDI)对国内生产总值(GDP)影响的实证分析宏观经济分析表明,经济增长取决于投资需求、消费需求、政府需求和出口需求。投资(特别是固定资产投资)对经济增长的拉     

中国经济增长与固定资产投资相关性分析

从短期看,投资是购买、是需求,而经济增长是供给、是销售。减少购买,减少需求就会抑制供给,压抑经济增长。适当增长购买、扩大需求,就可以刺激生产,增加供给,促进经济增长。当前国家采取一系列积极的财政政策和货币政策,主要目的就是增加国内的有效需求,这其中增加固定资产投资是一项主要政策。本文运用国家统计局发布的1980-2004年的统计数据(表1所示),运用计量经济学中的GrangerCausality因果关系检验法和回归分析法对中国经济增长与固定资产投资之间的依存关系进行相关探究,并在此基础上对固定资产投资对名义GDP的弹性系数进行测算。一…     

中国经济增长与固定资产投资相关性分析

从短期看,投资是购买、是需求,而经济增长是供给、是销售.减少购买,减少需求就会抑制供给,压抑经济增长.适当增长购买、扩大需求,就可以刺激生产,增加供给,促进经济增长.当前国家采取一系列积极的财政政策和货币政策,主要目的就是增加国内的有效需求,这其中增加固定资产投资是一项主要政策.本文运用国家统计局发布的1980-2004年的统计数据(表1所示),运用计量经济学中的Granger Causality因果关系检验法和回归分析法对中国经济增长与固定资产投资之间的依存关系进行相关探究,并在此基础上对固定资产投资对名义GDP的弹性系数进行测算.     

云南城乡收入差距影响经济增长机制的实证研究

本文选取云南省1978—2009年的消费投资需求、收入差距及经济增长的各年度数据,运用经济计量方法,对云南城乡居民收入差距通过消费需求和投资需求传导到经济增长的整个过程进行了实证研究,结论认为：居民收入差距在短期和长期内均抑制消费需求的增长,而在短期内刺激垒社会固定资产投资需求,但长期则会抑制投资需求;居民消费增长率和全社会固定投资增长率对促进经济增长有效,且居民消费增长率作用更大。     

云南城乡收入差距影响经济增长机制的实证研究

本文选取云南省1978-2009年的消费投资需求、收入差距及经济增长的各年度数据,运用经济计量方法,对云南城乡居民收入差距通过消费需求和投资需求传导到经济增长的整个过程进行了实证研究,结论认为:居民收入差距在短期和长期内均抑制消费需求的增长,而在短期内刺激全社会固定资产投资需求,但长期则会抑制投资需求;居民消费增长率和全社会固定投资增长率对促进经济增长有效,且居民消费增长率作用更大.     

当前我国的投资增长趋势

固定资产投资与经济发展和人民生活水平提高有密切的关系.首先,固定资产投资是经济发展的基本推动力,是促进经济增长的"三驾马车"之一.投资既构成当期需求,拉劝当期经济的发展;同时,投资又形成未来的供给能力,对未来的经济增长和经济结构产生影响.因此,投资是影响经济增长的最重要因素.     

投资的需求效应和供给效应分析

投资对经济增长也具有双重效应：需求效应和供给效应。投资的需求效 应属于中短期分析,主要是在宏观经济的周期理论和经济调节理论中进行,着眼于解释中短期经济波动的原因,以及寻求利用投资来调节经济、熨平周期。而投资的供给效应属于长期分析,主要是在经济增长理论中进行,目的是分析积累或投资对经济增长的作用。本文在一系列的计量经济模型的基础上,对我国固定资产投资对经济增长的需求效应和供给效应进行了实证分析,揭示了投资对经济增长具有推动或促进作用。     

山东省固定资产投资与经济增长的实证研究

固定资产投资对于经济增长有着重要的作用。以计量经济学的模型为基础,对山东省固定资产投资和经济增长进行定量分析,结果表明,固定资产投资能够促进经济增长,而且时间因素对山东的经济增长也有影响。     

固定资产投资增长过快与宏观调控

本文通过统计方法对国内生产总值(GDP)、全社会固定资产投资完成额和居民消费的增长以及它们之间的数量关系进行了分析,结合当前宏观经济形势,得出以下结论:一、中国目前的经济增长仍处于正常状态,但固定资产投资增长已经超出正常范围;二、在经济增长率保持不变的情况下,全社会固定资产投资完成额的增长与居民消费增长之间存在着负相关关系,在目前情况下,如果经济增长率和其他条件不变,投资每增长1％,消费将会下降0.8％。三、2003年的固定资产投资的增幅已经明显超出经济增长的需求,2004年比较理想的状态应该是把消除了价格变动后的全社会固定资产投资增幅从2003年的水平上(24％)再下调4个百分点以上,即压缩到20％以下;四、中国目前以鼓励投资为主要手段刺激经济增长的目的已经达到,宏观经济政策上应有所调整,全社会消费总量的增长应该予以更多的重视。     

1994年福建省宏观经济环境分析

一、从社会需求看,投资需求和消费需求继续拉动1994年宏观经济增长 1.在成长型经济中,保持固定资产投资规模的适度增长,并着力优化投资结构,对推进产业结构合理化、高度化,带动经济持续较快增长,具有重要作用。但若投资规模过大,投资结构不合理,不仅会影响到经济总量的平衡,也不利于经济长期发展。由于     

Training policies and economic growth in an evolutionary world

The role of training and human capital accumulation as a source of innovation and growth is studied within an evolutionary microsimulation model. Firms within the model learn about technology through radical/incremental innovation and imitation. General human capital increases the probability of innovation whereas specific human capital increases technical efficiency. Firms endogenously determine the level of investment in fixed and current assets, R&D activities, and education and training. Human capital accumulation through investment in education and training is shown to be a source of economic growth even though firms tend to under-invest in these activities because they cannot fully recoup training costs when workers quit. The paper investigates the effects of various training policies on macro-performance. The first policy is to subsidise all education and training activities. The second policy requires firms to spend a certain percentage of the wage bill on training activities. In the third case, the government subsidises training activities if the firm hires unemployed people, and pays the social security contributions for 1 year. We experiment with these policies because many European countries adopt similar policies to cure the unemployment problem and to enhance economic growth. By running 101 experiments for each policy, increasing the parameter value step by step, we are able to test the impact of training policies on macro-economic performance (manufacturing growth rates, unemployment, etc.), and to estimate policy elasticities through econometric techniques. The results suggest that some subsidy policies are effective in improving the long-run macro-performance while a minimum requirement to train set upon firms is not.     

The Intertemporal Causal Dynamics Between Fixed Capital Formation and Economic Growth in The Group-Of-Seven Countries *

The debate between De Long and Summers (1991, 1992) and Blomstrom, Lipsey and Zejan (1996) who reported conflicting results on the relationship between fixed capital formation and economic growth raised doubts on whether changes in a country's capital formation shares in GDP have an influence on its future growth rates. This paper addresses the issue again by examining the causal patterns between the share of fixed investment in GDP and the growth rate of per capital real GDP on an individual country basis, using time series on each of the group-of-seven countries. The empirical results suggest that the causal relationship between these variables may vary significantly across the major industrialized countries that presumably belong to the same growth group. Most importantly, no consistent evidence is found that causality is running in only one direction. Rather, causality between fixed investment and growth seems to have a country-specific nature and may run in either directions.     

Regional analysis of the impact of inward foreign direct investment on economic growth in the Chinese electronic industry

This article empirically investigates the impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on regional economic growth in the Chinese electronic industry (CEI). Utilizing a provincial-level panel data spanning the period 1989 to 2009, we specify and estimate an endogenous economic growth model for the CEI. Empirical results indicate that, for the coastal region, FDI inflows have been growth enhancing, while in the central and western regions the impact of FDI on economic growth is mixed, depending on the channel of capital flow. Results also indicate that exports, human capital, science and technology investment and fixed asset investment are growth enhancing, while unemployment and foreign R&D investment are growth impeding in the CEI.     

固定资产投资对浙江农业产出影响的实证

固定资产投资成为拉动我国经济增长的动力,投资通过产业部门的关联作用,产生拉动和推动作用,从而促进农业产业的增长,且这种促进作用持续时间较长。本文利用浙江11地市的面板数据,运用固定效应模型就浙江省固定资产投资对农业产出的影响进行实证。实证结果表明：固定资产投资对各地市农业产出总体具有促进作用,但地区之间的影响存在明显差异。当期的固定资产投资对农业产出弹性系数较小,且温州、衢州和丽水的系数为负值;滞后一期的固定资产投资对农业产出的弹性系数要大于当期,宁波和衢州的产出系数为负值;滞后二期固定资产投资对农业产出的弹性系数最显著。这说明即使在投入要素收益边际递减规律下,资本仍是浙江农业产出的增长重要原因,但各市存在比较大的区别。因此,为促进各地市农业产出的增长和全省产出的均衡增长,应进一步扩大农业资本投入的规模。     

China’s Investments in Skills

This paper discusses the benefits of investment in skills in China. We highlight the achievements China has made over time in human capital investments and the new challenges that have emerged as the country develops. To fuel China’s further economic growth and social developments, it is essential to take a more holistic view on skill investments. We suggest policies that promote both economic efficiency and social mobility.     

我国国债资金运营效率实证分析

自1997年我国实行积极财政政策以来,拉动了国内投资需求,刺激了经济增长,对保持经济的持续、稳定增长起到了重要而积极的作用.本文测算的结果显示,国债对经济增长的贡献度自1997年以来呈逐年递增趋势,即从1997年的8.83%递增到2000年的12.23%;但另一方面不容忽视的是,国债的大量持续发行亦对民间投资形成"挤出效应",部分构成了经济增长的抵消因素.国债政策怎样在对经济增长的正负作用之间进行平衡抉择,文中提出应进一步优化政府投资结构,鼓励、扩大民间资本投资,完善政策配套手段等.     

Decentralization,social capital,and regional growth: The case of the Italian North-South divide

This paper aims to show how a region's constant level of social capital may have a very different impact on its economic growth depending on whether the central or the local level of government is responsible for regional policy.Our case study is the economic performance of Northern and Southern Italy in the post-World War II period, when a long phase of regional convergence came to a sudden halt in the early 1970s. We focus on the economic effects of the 1970s institutional reforms on government decentralization and wage bargaining. Our main hypothesis is that decentralization allocates the provision of public capital to institutions, the local ones, more exposed to a territory's social capital. Since social capital is lower in the Southern regions, decentralization made their developmental policies less effective from 1970 onwards, and regional inequality increased.We build an endogenous growth model augmented to include the interaction between social capital and public investment as well as the reform of the Italian labour market. We calibrate our model using data of the Italian regions for 1951–71. Our quantitative results indicate that decentralization triggered the influence of local social capital on growth and played a central role in halting the convergence path of the low-social-capital regions.     

Powering economic growth and development in Africa: telecommunication operations

This study investigates the effect of telecommunication operations on economic growth and development in selected African countries. The analysis considers a panel of 46 African countries from 2000 to 2015. To measure economic growth, real gross domestic product serves as the proxy, while economic development is measured by the Human Development Index, and telecommunication operations by a composite index of telecommunication computed from mobile line, fixed/CDM line and Internet access penetration via principal component analysis. The physical capital stock is measured by gross fixed capital formation, level of employment by the employment to population ratio, human capital development by enrolment in secondary education for both sexes and technology transfer by net inflows of foreign direct investment in Africa. The empirical results suggest that telecommunication operations promote economic growth and development in Africa. These results imply that for every positive expansion in telecommunication operations and physical capital stock, aggregate output and standard of living will adjust positively in Africa. Thus, an appropriate policy to improve overall investment in Africa and most especially in the telecommunication sector since the spillover effect cut across other sectors and the general economic performance.     

The analytical solution of balanced growth of non-linear dynamic multi-sector economic model

In a one-sector neoclassical dynamic economic growth model, a reasonable ratio of investment to consumption exists, i.e., the “Golden Rule of Consumption”. This study is to extend one-sector neoclassical growth model to a multi-sector one. It is assumed that both the production function and the utility function are of Cobb–Douglas type, and the analytical expression of the balanced growth solution of the multi-sector model is provided, mainly including analytical expressions of the optimal distribution coefficient of fixed capital investment, the optimal distribution coefficient of labor hour, the proportion of production, the economic growth rate, the rate of change of the price index, and rental rates of different fixed capital.     

Fixed investment and economic growth: new results on causality

This study re-examines the issue of causality between investment shares and economic growth. A methodology is applied based on Arellano and Bond (1991), and Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen (1988) to quinquennial panel data on growth and investment shares for the post war period and shows that, contrary to previous results in the literature, causality between fixed investment and growth runs in both directions. Investment shares Granger-cause growth rates and growth rates Granger-cause investment shares. Granger causality from investment shares to growth rates is found to be negative. The result is in contrast with a capital fundamentalist view which sees fixed investment as the key to long run growth, but is fully consistent with the predictions of Solow-type growth models.