山西省居民消费对经济增长影响的实证分析

近年来,山西省城乡居民收入与消费水平不断提高,但消费需求不足成为目前阻碍国民经济发展的一个主要因素。通过对城乡居民消费与经济增长的回归分析,得出居民消费比投资更能拉动经济的增长,提高城乡居民的消费,尤其是拓展农村居民的消费具有重要的意义;通过对居民消费结构的分析,得出消费需求结构决定了经济增长的结构,只有合理的居民消费需求结构才能成为经济水平增长的基础。在此基础上,文章提出扩大居民消费、拉动经济增长的建议。     

关于农村消费排斥的探讨

农村消费排斥是一个不可忽视的问题,当前农村消费排斥主要有收入排斥、社会保障排斥、消费环境排斥、金融排斥、消费结构排斥和消费观念排斥等六大维度。破解农村消费排斥,要以制度创新为先导,促进农民增收为中心环节,改善消费环境,更新农民陈旧的消费观念,发展农村的金融市场。     

Interrelationship between social and economic policies in the sphere of household income and consumption and macroeconomic dynamics

This article presents a conceptual scheme of the impact made on the economic development by the social and economic policies in the field of household income and consumption. A set of tools is presented for taking into account the multiplicative effects of social and economic policies. The interrelationships are studied between the dynamics in wages and prices and the parameters of the macroeconomic technology with an allowance for the principles of economic equilibrium.     

不同收入等级城镇居民的消费结构变动趋势研究

由于不同收入人群的消费者行为不一样,所以他们的消费结构及其变动也会不一样,因而使用宏观数据研究居民的消费结构变动并不准确。本文对我国城镇居民七个不同的收入等级在2002～2007年期间的消费结构变动进行了分析和研究,这样更能真实和准确地反应他们消费结构的变动与差异,该研究对扩大我国内需和产业结构的调整政策制定有一定的参考价值。     

换工作对收入水平和收入增长的影响

本文利用中国社会科学院2002年的CHIPS数据,分析了换工作对于劳动者收入水平和收入增长的影响。本文通过控制初始的收入水平来解决异质性的影响。结果表明,对于初始收入水平较低的样本,换工作对其收入有正的影响,而对于初始收入较高的样本,换工作则有负的影响。如果直接考察换工作对于收入增长的影响,给定初始收入和其他特征,换工作对于收入增长的平均影响是正的。不仅如此,换工作对于低收入者的收入增长有较大的正的影响。     

Consumption Structure of Migrant Worker Families in China

This study draws on a survey of migrants in 12 cities across four major urbanizing areas in China and investigates the structure of migrant worker families' urban and rural consumption. The results show that the structure of migrant worker families' consumption has been dominated by survival consumption. These families tend to live frugally in cities while engaging in conspicuous consumption in their rural hometowns. The structure of migrant worker families' consumption is mainly shaped by their income stability and wealth levels rather than their current income level. Moreover, migrant worker families with high educational levels and those who intend to settle permanently in cities are likely to allocate substantial expenditure to status and hedonic consumption and to upgrade their urban consumption structure.     

Major necessities and minor luxuries: Workers as consumers in Finland at the turn of the twentieth century

Abstract

This article examines consumption in Finland in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The emphasis of the article is on worker households, the consumption of which is described on the basis of household-budget studies. Long-term macro time-series are used to check the views derived from cross-sectional consumption enquiries. These two kinds of data are compared also by comparing the income elasticities of consumption. It is shown that the Finnish consumption structure was at the turn of the century quite traditional, food and other necessities making up the major part of consumption. Modest change towards a somewhat more diversified consumption had, however, already taken place. Furthermore, the inner structure of the broad categories of consumption had also changed. The development of consumption supports the assumption of rising living standards.     

The underconsumption economy

This paper considers the dynamics of the consumption of foodstuffs, nonfood items, and paid services. Quantitative and qualitative consumption indices are studied in connection with analysis of the state of internal and external consumption stocks, price level, and income differentiation of the population. The first section is devoted to studies on the tendencies of actual and normative consumption of foodstuffs; the second one1 studies the tendencies of consumption of non-food items, housing, and paid services.     

Distribution of income, technology and employment: An analysis of the industrial sectors of Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela

The increasingly popular strategy which postulates that a redistribution of income can automatically produce a higher level of employment and in turn, a better distribution of income, is discussed in this paper with special reference to the industrial sector. On the basis of data from Ecuador, Perú and Venezuela and utilizing a Leontieff type of model disaggregated by technological strata, the author concludes that the redistribution of income does not significantly affect employment in the industrial sector, since the two fundamental assumptions on which the positive results are expected are of doubtful validity. On one hand, the structure of consumption of industrial goods is inelastic to changes in income distribution and on the other, the production of wage goods does not necessarily imply the use of more labour intensive techniques.Given the need to improve the distribution of income, the author maintains that for such redistribution to be used to promote employment creation, special attention should be given to the direction of consumption of those benefited with the redistribution and to the channelling of the additional demand towards those establishments which use more labour intensive techniques.     

资产财富和居民消费——来自中国省际面板数据的经验证据

随着"双循环"发展战略的提出，如何提升我国居民消费成为研究热点。与已有研究不同，文章首先从省际视角研究了居民消费行为的影响因素，证实了金融资产和住房资产分别对消费产生的促进作用和抑制作用，且金融资产的促进作用大于住房资产的抑制作用。其次，文章探讨了两种资产对不同种类消费品的影响，金融资产增加主要促进教育娱乐医疗等改善性消费，住房资产增加则主要抑制基本品消费。最后，文章对不同省份居民消费的影响因素进行异质性分析，发现金融资产对消费的促进作用随收入、资产增加先上升后下降，而住房资产对消费的抑制作用随收入、资产增加先上升后下降，金融资产和住房资产在东部地区影响小于西部地区，且受区域教育、人口和收入结构影响。综上来看，提升居民收入水平，改善居民收入结构，控制房价过度上涨，改善资本市场在资产分配中的作用，加大政府在教育、医疗、养老等公共服务方面的投入能够有效改善家庭资产结构，提升居民消费水平。     

基于消费角度的城乡收入差距分析

在经济的快速发展过程中,消费和收入之间存在着密切的关系。文章运用GE指数及要素分解方法,从消费的角度对收入差距进行分解,分析消费对城乡收入差距的贡献。然后,从居民消费倾向、消费率和消费结构三个方面对城乡收入差距的演变做出进一步的计算分析,从而提出改善居民消费结构、提倡适度消费等缩小城乡收入差距的建议。     

山西城镇居民消费结构与现代服务业发展的实证研究

消费结构与产业结构具有相互影响和相互促进作用。在城镇化背景下,对山西省2007年—2017年城镇居民消费结构和现代服务业进行描述分析,并对二者的关系进行实证分析。结果表明山西城镇居民的食品支出和医疗保健与现代服务业具有一定的相关性。增加城镇居民收入、扩大有效服务供给和完善社会保障体系将有助于山西城镇居民的消费结构升级和现代服务业的高质量发展。     

扩大居民消费需求必须“长”“短”政策配合

我国居民消费水平低主要表现在居民消费率低,特别是农村居民消费率低,以及居民消费对经济增长带动作用不足等方面。究其原因,一是我国经济发展中的一些固有矛盾,如城乡居民收入增长缓慢、收入差距不断扩大、社会保障体系不健全、供需产品存在结构性矛盾、消费环境不够完善等等;二是国际金融危机加剧了这些固有矛盾,使扩大居民消费的形势更加紧迫也更加严峻。因此扩大居民消费需求必须要做到"长"短"政策配合,通过政府投资、政府调控等见效快的短期措施,刺激居民消费,实现"保增长"的经济目标;通过转变经济发展方式,逐步完善我国经济体制中的一些不合理因素,从根本上解决问题,真正实现扩大居民消费需求的目标。     

劳动者收入与扩大消费需求——基于经济增长模式转型背景

在经济增长模式转型背景下研究我国劳动者收入问题对于扩大消费需求具有十分重要的影响:当前我国劳动者持久性收入过低以及持久性收入的不稳定性、预防性特征抑制了居民消费需求的增长;劳动者暂时性收入的不确定性特征降低了居民的消费需求。如果能够通过大幅增加劳动者的持久性收入,就可以使劳动者形成对未来收入的稳定性预期,这对扩大国内消费需求和经济增长模式的转型具有非常重要的作用。因此,为提高劳动者收入和扩大居民的消费需求,本文提出以下对策建议:建立工资正常增长机制和支付保障机制;调整国民收入分配结构;建立完善的社会保障制度;深化金融体制改革,创新金融工具。     

Aggregate consumption with heterogeneous agents and a changing income distribution

A simple Monte-Carlo model is used to demonstrate that the statistical problems typical for aggregate consumption, such as autocorrelation and noncointegration, can be generated through a change in income distribution if individual consumers are sufficiently heterogeneous in their marginal propensity to consume. The results are obtained for individual consumers who are assumed to be completely myopic. The dynamics at the aggregate level can, therefore, be attributed only to the aggregation process, not to dynamic optimization of individual consumers or to adjustment costs and lags on the part of a representative agent.     

The impact of financial development on the income and consumption levels of China’s rural residents

In this paper, we investigate the impact of financial development on rural residents’ income and consumption levels in China. We discover that the development of traditional financial services has little impact on the income and consumption levels of rural residents. In contrast, the development of emerging financial services has a significant positive impact on the income and consumption levels of rural residents. Traditional financial services, as is well known, require collateral and high expected future cash flows from customers, making financial inclusion difficult. Emerging financial services in China are special financial services promoted by financial regulators to support technological innovation, cultural development, environmental protection, and rural development. Our findings suggest that these emerging financial services are effective in increasing the income and consumption levels of rural residents. Interestingly, while emerging financial services that directly target rural development have no significant impact on rural residents' income and consumption, financial support for technological advancement and cultural development appears to be more effective in increasing rural residents' income and consumption.     

Uncertainty and Optimally Uniform Commodity Taxes

This paper examines the implications of uncertainty for the structure of optimal commodity taxes in the presence of a linear income tax. Consumers face uncertain income and commit to consumption of some goods before the resolution of uncertainty and to others after. Preferences are separable between labor and consumption goods. We prove that optimal commodity taxes are (i) uniform within the category of noncommitted goods if their subutility is logarithmic; (ii) uniform within the two categories if both subutilities are logarithmic; and (iii) nonzero across categories, with the tax rate on precommitted goods being lower than the tax rate on noncommitted goods.     

External Shocks and High Volatility in Consumption in Low‐Income Countries

According to the well‐known concept of consumption smoothing, the volatility of consumption is low even when income is volatile; this is confirmed by data from G7 countries. Surprisingly, however, consumption volatility in many low‐income countries is nontrivially higher than income volatility. Here I examine what causes high consumption volatility in low‐income countries. In general, volatile consumption makes consumers worse off. Therefore, understanding the causes of high consumption volatility can contribute to improving welfare in low‐income countries by suggesting measures to assist in the stabilization of consumption. Unlike much previous research, I focus on international factors when explaining high consumption volatility. The results suggest that external shocks, which are far more volatile in low‐income countries than in industrialized countries, strongly swing consumption. By capturing these mechanisms, the model I use successfully accounts for consumption volatility's differences between the sample low‐income country and sample industrialized country.     

为什么中国文娱消费偏低?基于人口年龄结构的解释

促进文娱消费对于拉动文化产业高质量发展、满足人民精神文化需求至关重要，但我国居民文娱消费增速偏低，对此学界还欠缺足够的经验论证。文章基于人口年龄结构视角，利用中国家庭追踪调查数据（CFPS2016）考察中国城镇居民人口年龄结构变迁对文娱消费的影响。实证结果发现：整体而言，城镇家庭少儿人口占比具有显著的文娱消费需求效应，但家庭老年人口占比增加对文娱消费需求形成挤压；进一步研究发现，文娱消费需求效应伴随少儿的成长表现更为旺盛，而老年阶段的文娱消费需求随着年岁增长愈加不敏感。进一步机制分析表明，家庭收入水平和教育程度能够正向调节家庭老龄化的文娱消费需求效应，在收入水平更高、教育背景更好的家庭，人口老龄化对文娱消费的挤出效应愈不明显；在教育背景、健康状况更优的家庭，少儿抚养数量增加带来的正向文娱消费需求会被部分挤出。旨在促进城镇居民文娱消费的政策应该顺应我国人口结构变动规律，充分尊重不同年龄消费群体的文娱消费选择及习惯，重点关注"多子化"、高收入、高学历家庭的文娱消费需求，在全面提高居民收入水平的基础上，培育发展壮大细分文娱产业和消费市场，让更多居民对文娱"能消费"、"愿消费"。     

Analysis and prediction of the production and turnover of alcoholic beverages

The world alcohol consumption level is analyzed. Intercountry control of production, turnover, and prices of alcoholic beverages, as well as their taxation in different countries, are considered. The demand for alcoholic beverages in Russia is predicted. Public policy measures aimed at reducing alcohol consumption are proposed.