Interrelationship between social and economic policies in the sphere of household income and consumption and macroeconomic dynamics

This article presents a conceptual scheme of the impact made on the economic development by the social and economic policies in the field of household income and consumption. A set of tools is presented for taking into account the multiplicative effects of social and economic policies. The interrelationships are studied between the dynamics in wages and prices and the parameters of the macroeconomic technology with an allowance for the principles of economic equilibrium.     

Analyzing social policy alternatives through modeling and forecasting of the consumption,composition, and incomes of the population

The article continues researches started under the guidance and with active participation of E.Yu. Faerman, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), within the framework of the RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute Population, Incomes, and Consumption system, aimed at modeling and forecasting the population composition, incomes, and consumption using a number of methods (including the multilevel complex structuring of the population and its incomes and consumption, modeling and forecasting shadow employment and incomes, and so on) and a complex statistical database. Comparative analysis of the results of four variants of inertial forecasts of socioeconomic indicators of different levels (the population as a whole, its functional layers, and their social and socioeconomic constituent groups) has been performed, including official and unofficial incomes and shadow employment; scenarios of social policy have been studied, including the income policy, labor compensation problems, and the social transfer policy; and economic consequences of the income legalization scenario have been evaluated.     

The development of the ‘electronics complex’ and government policies in Brazil

This paper reports some of the results of research conducted at the Instituto de Economia Industrial of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro on the pattern of development of two industries of the ‘electronics complex’ — electronic data processing equipment (EDPE) and electronic semiconductor components (SCC). The industries were selected because of their technological and economic importance and for their potential inter-relatedness, as well as for policy-related reasons.The research focused on the analysis of the international characteristics of the two industries (based mainly on secondary sources) and an empirical investigation of their pattern of competition in Brazil. Following a brief characterization of the ‘electronics complex,’ the next section of this paper describes the evolution of imports, local production and exports and the pattern of competition in the Brazilian market. The third section analyzes in more detail the inter-relations between consumers, international firms, local producers and Government policies, focusing mainly on the EDPE industry ‘infant-industry’ experience. The last section focuses on the intended policy for the SCC industry, exploring the implications of industrial interdependence and drawing from the experience of the EDPE industry. The article concludes by presenting some requisite characteristics of policy for fostering an ‘electronics complex’, which may be useful not only for Brazil, but for other LDCs as well.     

Food crisis and export taxation: the cost of non-cooperative trade policies

This paper aims to assess the rationales for export taxes in the context of a food crisis. First, we summarize the effects of export taxes using both partial and general equilibrium theoretical models. When large countries aim to maintain constant domestic food prices, in the event of an increase in world agricultural prices, the optimal response is to decrease import tariffs in net food-importing countries and to increase export tariffs in net food-exporting countries. The latter decision improves national welfare, while the former reduces national welfare: this is the price that must be paid to keep domestic food prices constant. Small net food-importing countries are harmed by both decisions, while small net food-exporting countries gain from both. Second, we illustrate the costs of a lack of regulation and cooperation surrounding such policies in a time of crisis using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, mimicking the mechanisms that appeared during the recent food price surge (2006–2008). This model illustrates the interdependence of trade policies, as well as how a process of retaliation and counter-retaliation (increased export taxes in large net food-exporting countries and reduced import tariffs in large net food-importing countries) can contribute to successive augmentations of world agricultural prices and harm small net food-importing countries. We conclude with a call for international regulation, in particular because small net food-importing countries may be substantially harmed by those policies that amplify the already negative impact of a food crisis.     

A project management approach to the implementation of development programmes within the local government sphere: An empirical analysis

Local government constitutes that part of the public sector that is closest to the inhabitants and is therefore indispensable in its role of promoting their general welfare through, inter alia, undertaking various development initiatives. Furthermore, legislation imposes upon local authorities the obligation to promote the social and economic development of local communities and to participate in implementing national and provincial development programmes. The efficiency and effectiveness with which local government fulfils its developmental role will largely depend on the ability of local authorities to manage development projects. The purpose of this article is to investigate the application of a project management approach as a tool for implementing development programmes in the local government sphere. This is done by means of a comprehensive study of the relevant literature and empirical research based on a research questionnaire that was distributed among selected municipal officials in leadership posts throughout South Africa. The findings of the empirical study are utilised to make specific recommendations with respect to the application of a project management approach to service delivery and local government development initiatives.     

金融危机下政府干预经济之经济法视野分析

金融危机下,各国经济出现全面下滑,政府积极采取措施干预经济,努力摆脱金融危机的笼罩。经济法是调整政府在干预本国经济活动中所形成的经济关系的法律规范的总称。政府干预经济应遵循经济法律规范的规定,依法干预本国经济。政府应从宏观和微观两个方面,主要运用财政、税收、金融和价格等间接手段干预经济。政府干预经济应控制在合理限度内,遵循社会公共利益原则、经济安全原则和适度干预原则,依据一定的标准实施干预。     

The Korean stock market volatility during the currency crisis and the credit crisis

This paper studies the volatility of the Korean stock market during the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 and the global credit crisis of 2008–2009. We use a fad model with Markov switching heteroskedasticity, which was first proposed by Kim and Kim (1996). Using the monthly data from January 1980 to October 2009, we find that the volatility of the transitory component of the stock return, or fads, increased during the currency crisis, but did not rise much during the credit crisis. It implies that the stock price fluctuations were not driven by irrational sentiments during the recent global crisis as much as during the former crisis. However, when we consider the dollar value of the Korean stock index in order to estimate the volatility that foreign investors confront, we find that the volatility of the transitory component was raised during the credit crisis as well as during the currency crisis. That is, foreign investors experienced greater volatility than domestic investors in the recent financial market turmoil. This asymmetric volatility that domestic and foreign investors face is one of the characteristics of the credit crisis.For more detailed analysis, the same model was applied to the weekly data from January 2005 to October 2009 and provided the result that the data measured by won–dollar exchange rates were more increased than the raw data. It holds that foreign investors confronted much greater volatility than domestic investors while the stock volatility was relatively lower in the credit crisis state than in the currency crisis state.     

Economic trends and policies in India during the Emergency

After the Indian State of Emergency was declared (June 1975), the economic conjuncture improved markedly, particularly with respect to critical supplies of foodgrains and foreign exchange. However, a survey of available economic indicators and of new Emergency government policies suggests that much improvement results from fortuitous influences, rather than policies made possible by the declaration of the Emergency. It also suggests that the class character of the Indian State has not yet significantly altered. The relationship between the government and a class coalition of monopoly and agricultural bourgeoisie has not been affected by the political changes since mid-1975.     

Riding out the COVID-19 storm: How government policies affect SMEs in China

Based on a nationally representative survey on SMEs in China, we study the impact of government policy interventions on SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings are three-fold. First, relief policies in the form of payment deferrals and exemptions significantly improve SMEs' cash flows and further stimulate their operational recovery. This effect is more pronounced for firms with larger shares of high-skilled employees. Second, financial support policies do not appear to be effective in alleviating SMEs' cash constraints or encouraging the reopening of small businesses, potentially due to difficulties in accessing policy-oriented loans and misallocation of credit. Last, regional and local lock-down policies decrease SMEs' incidence of reopening and delay their expected reopening in the near future, likely by reducing consumer demand. Our findings shed new light on the policy debates on supporting SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic.     

中日汽车消费政策的比较研究

目前我国汽车消费正由卖方市场向买方市场,以公款购车为主体向以私人购车为主体转变。借鉴发达国家经验,优化汽车消费环境是促进个人汽车消费的关键。本文从汽车税费、汽车金融服务、汽车保险、汽车召回、汽车维修服务、汽车报废等方面对中日汽车消费政策进行了比较分析。     

Local government consumption and firm performance: Evidence from the "TPCs" in China

Government consumption is an important factor affecting corporate performance. By exploiting a unique data set that reveals the Three Public Consumptions (TPCs) of China’s prefecture-level city governments, this paper investigates the impact of actual local government consumption on corporate performance and identifies the potential impact mechanism. We show that increases in local government consumption did lead to declines in firm productivity. TPC expenditures on official cars and official receptions had the most obvious impact on corporate performance. After considering endogenous measurement errors and substitution variables, the conclusion remained stable. Moreover, we show that the increase of local government TPC expenditures caused an increase in corporate tax burden, a decline in government efficiency, and excessive administrative intervention, which in turn caused a decline in firm performance. Our findings are particularly pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises, in firms with tight financing constraints, and in regions with weak marketization and low budget transparency. This study expands the theory that government behavior affects corporate performance, and also provides policy implications regarding restraints on government consumption.     

金融危机背景下我国政府经济职能定位的现实选择

鉴于目前金融危机的影响,准确定位我国政府的经济职能,是实现"善政"向"善治"转型的现实路径与方法论选择。文章对我国政府经济职能定位提出了若干政策建议。     

商品与网络的适应关系

为保证中国金融市场健康、安全快速发展 ,对金融危机理论进行深入的探讨无疑有迫切的重要现实意义。本文针对金融危机形成机理 ;提出一系列建设性的治理对策。     

浅析农民增收难的原因及增收对策

“三农”问题的关键是要解决农业的发展问题,而只有持续提高农民收入,才能真正实现农村社会的长治久安。本文试图通过对影响我国农民增收的原因进行分析,探讨农民增收的对策。     

基于危机生命周期理论的政府新媒体传播策略研究

如何快速解决危机,树立政府形象,保障国泰民安,是政府迫切需要解决的问题。在新媒体环境下,民众在危机的不同阶段对危机感知的心理和信息需求也有差异,因此,政府需要对危机事件进行动态分析、判断和应对。在危机潜伏期,应当预防与监测并重;在危机爆发期,应当统一口径发布真实信息;在危机扩散期,应当合力开展工作、积极辟谣;在危机平复期,应当反思危机、修复政府形象。文章对基于危机生命周期理论的政府新媒体传播策略进行了研究。     

Hiring migrants during the crisis (according to sociological surveys and focus groups)

This paper discusses the data of sociological surveys on the motives and sources of attracting migrants, their legalization and the quality of the labor force, employment conditions, and the registration of labor relations with the employer. The surveys were conducted in selected regions and industries employing migrants.     

Small business under the COVID-19 crisis: Expected short- and medium-run effects of anti-contagion and economic policies

This study makes a causal inference on the effects of anti-contagion and economic policies on small business by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers’ expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. We first find the business suspension request decreased targeted firms’ sales by 10 percentage points on top of the baseline 9 percentage points decline due to COVID-19, even though the Japanese anti-contagion policy was in a form of the government’s request that is not legally enforceable. Second, using a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria, we find lump-sum and prompt subsidies improved firms’ prospects of survival by 19 percentage points. Third, the medium-run recovery of firms’ performance is expected to depend crucially on when infections would end, indicating that the anti-contagion policies could complement longer-run economic goals.     

消除消费危机 创新充分消费——消费者幸福快乐与健康长寿的12项新作为

<正> 人类进入20世纪后半叶以来,几乎处于常态下生产过剩危机的实质,是充分消费不足的消费危机,典型的就是以日本为代表的东亚各国,就连虽然呈持续发展态势的中国经济,也受此困扰。面对如此问题,广大消费者必须按照如下依次递进的思路,理解和把握人类的最终目的和最高境界,就是要能够使消费者生活得更明白、更快乐、更长久;最直接目的和最佳结果,就是要能够使消费者得到全面自由发展和身心充分愉悦;最有效途径和最佳路由,就是要能够使社会的最终有效产出动态均衡于消费者的最终充分消费;最佳方式和方法,就是要使消费者工作赚钱本领