The Role of Fiscal Policy in the Eighties*

After surveying objections to using expansionary fiscal policy to raise output and employment. this article concludes that budget deficits do not necessarily lead to high interest rates and that crowding out is only moderate. even with non-accommodating monetary policy. The major constraint on the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy is the need to avoid devaluation. If real wages are rigid downwards. devaluation will lead to increases in inflationary pressure rather than increases in output. Because of this. and because of inflationary pressure from short-run Phillips curve effects. expansionary fiscal policy must be complemented by a prices and incomes policy.     

The Role of State Fiscal Policy in State Economic Growth

Do state policy makers have the ability to affect a state's rate of economic growth? This article examines one possible source of growth and per capita output level disparities by studying the role that state taxation and public expenditure decisions play in fostering economic development. Using pooled annual U.S. state‐level data from 1972 to 1998, a fixed‐effects model is employed to examine the effects of changing tax rates on both state per capita output levels and growth rates. The results indicate that higher tax rates negatively influence short‐run state economic growth, which lowers state output levels. However, long‐run growth is unaffected by changes in state tax rates, even after adjusting for the effects of initial per capita output levels, state expenditures, and aid from the federal government. Nor do changes in state public spending rates and federal aid permanently alter state growth rates, implying that state fiscal policies have only transitory effects on state growth. (JEL H71, O40, R11)     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: the Role of Financial Intermediation

This paper analyzes the impact of public debt on financial efficiency in an overlapping‐generations model. We argue that public debt may reduce intermediation costs by increasing the collateral of entrepreneurs. This effect is stronger, the stronger the non‐Ricardian component of public debt, i.e. the more it is associated with intergenerational redistribution. This effect can be interpreted as future generations acting as a guarantee for the loans provided to the entrepreneurs of the current generation. Furthermore, multiple growth paths may arise as low taxes increase private collateral, which in turn boosts growth via financial efficiency, while higher growth allows to maintain the same debt/GDP ratio with reduced taxes.     

The Public Accounts and Fiscal Policy

This article discusses the economy–wide effects of fiscal policy and major features of public outlays, receipts and debt trends in Australia.     

实施积极财政政策向可持续财政政策转型的构想

积极财政政策虽然在扩大内需上已经有所作为，但由于其负面作用的存在而不具有可持续性。为实现我国可持续发展的长期战略要求，我们应当适时实施由积极财政政策向可持续财政政策的转变。因此，应当对现行的财政支出政策进行调整，防范直接与间接财政风险的扩大化，完善现行税制，运用财政政策促进人力资本可持续发展。     

The Macroeconomic Implications of Current Fiscal Policy

Exchange rate changes and intertemporal consumption responses suggest that the short-run impact of current fiscal policy on aggregate demand will be small. However, cuts to public expenditure may have undesirable long-term consequences.     

财政平衡观与积极财政政策的可持续性

财政平衡理论是财政学体系的一个重要组成部分。财政收支矛盾是财政的主要矛盾,财政民歧矛盾是绝对的,平衡是相对的,其运动轨迹表现为“不平衡－平衡－不平衡”;另一方面,财政收支不是彼此依存、相互统一的,即绝对的财政收支矛盾（不平衡）可以转化为相对的财政收支统一（平衡）。因此,财政收支运动是按照“平衡－不平衡－平衡”的转变向前发展的。财政政策的可持续性实质上是财政风险的控制问题;“财政平衡”与“财政政策的可持续性”既有共通之处,也有差异之处。因此从整体上和中长期战略上看,必须实施平衡的财政政策。     

我国财政货币政策的调整与制度安排

为启动内需 ,我国于 1998年实施了积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策 ,随着时间的推移 ,需要对其进行调整。调整的取向是向适度的财政政策和稳健的货币政策转变 ;调控方向应由基础建设投资向产业结构调整转变。加强财政货币政策协调运行的制度建设 ,提高货币政策的传导效率和财政政策的运行效率。     

促进就业的财政政策选择

中国作为经济转轨时期的发展中国家，就业形势越来越严峻。本文在对中国就业现状进行分析的基础上，提出解决就业问题一是要通过有效实施财政政策，确保适度的经济增长速度以有效控制失业率；二是建立市场导向就业机制，实现就业的计划机制与市场机制的并轨；三是鼓励和推动非正规部门的发展，促进非正规就业，实现就业模式的转换；此外，还应进一步控制人口数量的增长，加大人力资本投资，提高劳动力素质。     

The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Fiscal Policy

This paper reviews the recent evolution of thinking and evidence regarding the effectiveness of activist fiscal policy, including how policy multipliers might vary with respect to economic conditions. Like many other countries that were hit by the “Great Recession,” the USA responded initially with active fiscal policy measures. But a more positive view of fiscal intervention appears to have developed earlier in the decade, and estimated decision rules confirm that there was an increase in policy activism. While this positive view has been tested by the unclear effects of fiscal policy during the Great Recession, recent evidence does suggest that fiscal policy may be especially effective in recession. Fiscal policy activism has also been tempered by recent concerns about growing government debt, a development which potentially might also undercut the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy.     

The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?*

We assess the role of national fiscal policies, as automatic stabilizers, within a monetary union. We use a two‐country New Keynesian DSGE model, incorporating non‐Ricardian consumers and a home bias in national consumption. Fiscal policy directly stabilizes non‐Ricardian agents' consumption. By doing so it contributes to the reduction in the volatility of variables such as output, wage inflation, and real interest rates. Our analysis of country‐specific shocks does not suggest potential inter‐country conflicts (as long as policies are constrained within the automatic stabilizers framework). However, we detect a potential conflict between the two consumer groups, because fiscal policy may raise optimizing agents' consumption volatility.     

积极财政政策与财政风险问题分析

1998年以来,为了应对通货紧缩的经济形势,政府实施积极财政政策,运用财政"反周期调节",刺激国内需求,拉动经济回升.但是,积极财政政策是一把"双刃剑",既可以发挥治理通货紧缩的积极作用,同时也会带来负面影响,如果运用不好,将会产生很大的财政风险.为了确保国家财政安全与稳健运行,有必要对积极财政政策可能产生的风险进行分析和把握,并积极采取措施加以防范和化解,避免潜在的财政风险转化为财政危机.     

关于积极财政政策的思考

实施积极的财政政策,增加财政支出,扩大国债发行,势必导致赤字的进一步增大。在此情况下,正确理解积极财政政策必然要涉及到两个问题：如何理解积极财政政策与财政平衡的关系？ 如何理解当前我国实施的积极财政政策与西方国家实行的扩张性财政政策的关系？ 本文提出积极财政政策不同于西方扩张性财政政策,它是我国特殊时期采取的一项特殊政策,其实施具有阶段性,财政平衡作为中长期指导财政工作的指导思想和原则,必须坚持而不能动摇。     

路径依赖对财政政策变迁的规范作用

财政政策作为一种政府主导的制度安排,其变迁的方向不是随机的,而是存在着路径依赖。当财政政策变迁存在着报酬递增和自我强化机制时,路径依赖就会对其产生规范作用。在一定程度上,财政政策的恰当性会进一步加强路径依赖的这种规范性作用。研究路径依赖对财政政策变迁的规范作用,对于推动我国财政政策的良性循环与变迁具有重要意义。     

低碳经济视角下国外财税政策经验借鉴

发达国家促进低碳发展的财税政策实践表明,征收碳税有利于碳的减排并能够获得相应的财政收入,但是,征税的主要目的在于碳减排.对低碳产品的生产和消费提供财政补贴,具有显著的激励效果.对低碳技术的研发提供资助,不仅能够促进碳减排,而且能够促进低碳发展,实现双重盈利.我国实施促进低碳发展的财税政策需要考虑发展阶段、经济水平、经济形势等诸多因素.     

财政政策的供给效应与经济发展

本文分析了发展中国家公共投资对私人资本积累的动态响应。针对公共资本的拥挤性特征 ,同时考虑财政投资可能引起的风险。在不考虑公共投资风险的分权经济中 ,由于公共资本和私人资本都处于短缺状态 ,企业争夺拥挤性公共资本而扩张私人资本的投资行为虽然使经济超常增长 ,但是存在过度投资和过度拥挤。在集中优化模型中 ,如果考虑到公共投资的风险 ,政府通过税收方式弥补公共投资风险 ,同时将企业投资产生的拥挤效应内部化 ,就能消除企业的过度投资和过度拥挤现象 ,使经济保持合理持续的增长。对中国这样的发展中国家 ,需要重视财政的供给效应 ,在经济起飞初期保证一定数量的政府资本性支出是必要的 ,但随着经济的不断发展和政府资本性支出累积的风险增加 ,财政转型十分必要。     

Fiscal Policy in Southeast Asia

Monetary policy was ineffective in dealing with the 1997 Asian macroeconomic crisis. Fiscal policy might have been more effective but was not considered for a variety of reasons.     

Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rates

This paper examines the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate and fiscal deficits in a continuous time optimizing general equilibrium model with OLG. It is shown that alternative financing modes of budget deficits imply different patterns of adjustment along the transitional path towards the steady-state equilibrium. In particular, the respect of public solvency without money financing is not sufficient to avoid the depreciation of the exchange rate in the long-run after a fiscal expansion. In addition, money and tax financing generate opposite intergenerational reallocation of wealth.