Can Social Cohesion be Harnessed to Repair Market Failures? Evidence from Group Lending in Guatemala

The success of group lending in developing countries has been attributed to the ability of the institution to mitigate asymmetric information problems in credit markets. Previous research has offered a number of explanations for this phenomenon: social ties between borrowing group members, internal group pressure to repay loans, and peer monitoring. This research presents empirical tests on borrowing group data from Guatemala which indicate that peer monitoring significantly effects borrowing group performance through stimulating intra-group insurance. Group pressure is found to have a small effect in deterring moral hazard, while the effect of social ties among members is statistically insignificant.     

Group Lending under Dynamic Incentives as a Borrower Discipline Device

In recent years group lending has become an increasingly utilized tool for providing credit access to the poor in developing countries. Using empirical results from first-hand field research on Guatemalan borrowing groups, this paper develops a simple game-theoretic model of group lending. Results from the model show that through peer monitoring, the threat of group expulsion, and the safety net of intragroup credit insurance, group lending mitigates some risky investment behavior that would otherwise occur under an individual borrowing contract. The credible threat of social sanctions against group members who misallocate borrowed capital further reduces instances of such behavior.     

团体规模、动态激励和社会链接对团体贷款影响的实证分析

本文通过实证分析,考察了团体规模、动态激励、社会链接三个重要因素对团体贷款的影响。结果表明:团体规模对团体贷款效率的影响并不显著,较大的规模更易诱发道德风险,但能降低团体总体风险;动态激励对团体贷款的有效运行具有重要作用;社会链接对团体贷款效率具有重要影响,强的社会链接可以诱致更高但不够稳定的还款意愿。     

LEARNING BY ASSOCIATION: MICRO CREDIT IN CHIAPAS, MEXICO

Micro credit programs provide institutional arrangements for low-income people to transit from nonmarket to market-oriented settings. This article develops a data set of payment records to determine micro credit participants' behavior on repayment performance. The findings shed new light strongly supporting micro credit as a feasible alternative to successfully provide financial resources to the poor, when controlling for asymmetric information. The empirical evidence indicates that learning by association through peer mentoring is a significant determinant in explaining high repayment rates, whereas peer monitoring is not. (JEL O1 , O17 , L31 , J15 )     

A socio-economic study of the borrowing process: the case of microentrepreneurs in Jordan

This paper investigates the socio-economic determinants of four stages of borrowing process of the Jordanian microfinance market. The equations and functions corresponding to the stages of the borrowing process are estimated using a sample of 474 microentrepreneurs. The main results are as follow: variables that reflect the repayment ability are the main determinants of credit rationing in the microfinance market; religious beliefs, social responsibilities, availability of local microfinance provides, application costs, level of knowledge about microfinance providers significantly affect the borrowing process of microentrepreneurs. Credit rationing is found to be a problem for some applicants, but not for the majority.     

Choice of specialization: do peers matter?

Social influence is an important factor in learning and decision-making. We estimate peer influence on student choice of specialization using data on undergraduate students of a Russian university. Information about individual social ties has been gathered from a questionnaire survey. We show that specialization choice is significantly influenced by friends as well as by study partners. The strongest effect is produced by friends who are study partners and those who have similar academic achievements. Reciprocal friendship ties have a stronger influence on the choice than nonreciprocal ones. Also, the decision is affected by classmates with similar academic achievement. The results allow us to better understand the mechanisms of peer effects in the specialization choice.     

Repayment performance of joint-liability microcredits: Metropolitan evidence on social capital and group names

This study empirically tests the predictions of four primary theories applicable to joint-liability microcredit programs’ repayment performance using an administrative data in a metropolitan setting. We introduce a new variable, group names, as a proxy for social capital to capture cooperation, solidarity, and drive for success, which shows a significant positive impact of 9.9% on repayment performance. Precise calculations of residential distance between group members show a deterioration of repayment performance by 1.1% with a 15-min increase in minimum walking distance. The results also show that joint liability, sectoral diversification, type of sector that the borrowers facilitate, the ratio of new members in a group, characteristics of loan officers, loan amount, interest rate, income-loan amount coverage ratio, the existence of senior members, average education, and diversity in income streams significantly affect repayment performance.     

Progressive Lending in Microfinance—What about the Farmers?

Dynamic incentives have become a common measure in microfinance institutions (MFI) to counteract the risk of default and to strengthen the borrower's identification with his micro‐lender. This article focuses on progressive lending over the course of the bank–borrower relationship. As the agricultural sector is increasingly important for Azerbaijan's economy, this study differentiates between the lending policies faced by farmers and non‐farmers, and matches the findings with the repayment performances of both client groups. By means of a rich data set spanning from 2007 through 2012 provided by an MFI in Azerbaijan, it can be demonstrated that farmers face a higher degree of loan volume rationing that cannot be justified by our findings on repayment performances. Moreover, we find that repeated borrowing increases the default probabilities of both client groups. In conclusion, we deduce that the MFI and borrowers could benefit from reconsidering the current lending policies.     

Optimal Lending Contracts and Firm Dynamics

We develop a general model of lending in the presence of endogenous borrowing constraints. Borrowing constraints arise because borrowers face limited liability and debt repayment cannot be perfectly enforced. In the model, the dynamics of debt are closely linked with the dynamics of borrowing constraints. In fact, borrowing constraints must satisfy a dynamic consistency requirement: the value of outstanding debt restricts current access to short-term capital, but is itself determined by future access to credit. This dynamic consistency is not guaranteed in models of exogenous borrowing constraints, where the ability to raise short-term capital is limited by some prespecified function of debt. We characterize the optimal default-free contract—which minimizes borrowing constraints at all histories—and derive implications for firm growth, survival, leverage and debt maturity. The model is qualitatively consistent with stylized facts on the growth and survival of firms. Comparative statics with respect to technology and default constraints are derived.     

Reconsidering social capital: a latent class approach

Social capital has proven to be a useful concept, but has not been well-measured in the economics literature. We motivate and demonstrate the application of latent class models to measure social capital, based on the idea that social capital is an unobservable multidimensional construct. We explain and show the construction of latent classes that measure an individual’s social capital using data from the General Social Survey. Our method generates meaningfully different conclusions about the accumulation of social capital than those obtained by previous research. We present evidence that higher income influences social capital accumulation because of a higher opportunity cost of time. We also find evidence of complementarities in social capital accumulation within an individual’s peer group. Finally, we show that community heterogeneity influences the likelihood that individuals adhere to certain social norms independent of their propensity to participate in voluntary organizations.     

Group-lending: Sequential financing,lender monitoring and joint liability

We develop a simple model of group-lending based on peer monitoring and moral hazard. We find that, in the absence of sequential financing or lender monitoring, group-lending schemes may involve under-monitoring with the borrowers investing in undesirable projects. Moreover, under certain parameter configurations, group-lending schemes involving either sequential financing, or a combination of lender monitoring and joint liability are feasible. In fact, group-lending schemes with sequential financing may succeed even in the absence of joint liability, though the repayment rate will be lower. In the absence of joint liability, however, group-lending with lender monitoring is unlikely to be feasible.     

贷款基准利率4倍的界限合理吗

依据我国企业现实收益率和债务负担承受力的考察,也出于维护借贷市场正常秩序的考虑,采用20%的收益率和利率水平为计算上限的分界点比较符合我国国情。为此,应按3倍贷款基准利率来确定政策允许的民间借贷年率上限,它比较符合我国当前的现实。     

论产出分布对团体贷款还款率的影响

关于团体贷款的现有研究对于还款率在时间上和空间上的差异还不能够给出有说服力的解释。通过构造一个产出信息不对称下的五人还款博弈模型 ,我们从产出在成员之间的分布的角度解释这种差异。我们的模型表明了产出在成员间的分布状况可以成为导致这种差异的重要力量 ,同时也加深了我们对团体贷款还款阶段各种影响因素的理解     

Are estimated peer effects on smoking robust? Evidence from adolescent students in Spain

Adolescent smoking is one of the most pressing public health problems. The objective of this paper is to analyse the influence of peer pressure on adolescent cigarette consumption. More concretely, we explore the significance and robustness of the peer effects using several estimation methods employed in the existing literature. On the basis of the data provided by the 2004 Spanish survey on drug use in the school population, we estimate the probability of being a smoker by two-stage models. The results reveal that when we use standard errors used in the literature the class peer variable appears to be significant. However, the class peer variable is not significant when we calculate more exigent standard errors, a result that is robust across all specifications. The paper suggests the need for a more cautious interpretation of the peer effects found previously in the literature until a deeper analysis confirms the robustness of the peer effects.     

What norms trigger punishment?

Many experiments have demonstrated the power of norm enforcement—peer monitoring and punishment—to maintain, or even increase, contributions in social dilemma settings, but little is known about the underlying norms that monitors use to make punishment decisions, either within or across groups. Using a large sample of experimental data, we empirically recover the set of norms used most often by monitors and show first that the decision to punish should be modeled separately from the decision of how much to punish. Second, we show that absolute norms often fit the data better than the group average norm often assumed in related work. Third, we find that different norms seem to influence the decisions about punishing violators inside and outside one’s own group.     

Dollarization and financial integration

How does a country's exchange rate regime impact its ability to borrow from abroad? We build a small open economy model in which the government responds to shocks by adjusting monetary policy and foreign borrowing. Sovereign borrowing is subject to endogenous limits, which ensure repayment when the default punishment corresponds to financial autarky. Dollarizing implies renouncing monetary policy, but can make access to international debt markets more valuable, thereby loosening borrowing constraints. This mechanism linking dollarization to financial integration is consistent with observed declines in spreads on foreign-currency debt in countries adopting the dollar or the euro.     

Measuring peer effects in the Brazilian school system

Using the identification strategy proposed by Graham and Hahn (2005), we estimate the magnitude of classmate effects on math scores using Brazilian data from 2005. In addition, we provide a detailed discussion about the identification of endogenous peer effects in the linear in means models. Our results show that both peer characteristics (exogenous peer effects) – like race, socioeconomic status and gender – and peer actions (endogenous peer effects) are important determinants of students’ outcomes in the fifth grade of elementary school. Our estimates of endogenous peer effects are about 0.008 of 1 SD of math test scores, which can be interpreted as evidence of a so-called ‘conformist’ individual behaviour, under which students face large costs to exert effort levels that are distant from what is believed to be the norm in the classroom. Those estimates of endogenous peer effects imply a social multiplier of about 1.67.     

Misery loves company: Social regret and social interaction effects in choices under risk and uncertainty

Extensive field evidence shows individuals? decisions in settings involving uncertainty depend on their peers? decisions. One hypothesized cause of peer group effects is social interaction effects: an individual?s utility from an action is enhanced by others taking the same action. We employ a series of controlled laboratory experiments to study the causes of peer effects in choice under uncertainty. We find strong peer group effects in the laboratory. Our design allows us to rule out social learning, social norms, group affiliation, and complementarities as possible causes for the observed peer group effects, leaving social interaction effects as the likely cause. We use a combination of theory and empirical analysis to show that preferences including “social regret” are more consistent with the data than preferences including a taste for conformity. We observe spillover effects, as observing another?s choice of one risky gamble makes all risky gambles more likely to be chosen.     

Peer pressure,social spillovers,and reciprocity: an experimental analysis

This study examines whether reciprocity is affected by what others know and do. Two types of social effects are investigated within the framework of a modified investment game. On the one hand, we assess the role played by the awareness that own choices are observed by another trustee—i.e., peer pressure. On the other hand, we measure the interaction between trustees’ choices—i.e., social spillovers. We find that peer pressure fosters reciprocity and, to a lesser extent, so do social spillovers.     

Exploring peer effects in education in Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper assesses peer group influence on academic performance of primary school students in Latin America and the Caribbean. Based on TERCE data set, we investigate peer effects in mathematics, language and sciences tests outcomes among sixth grade students. We apply a social interaction model which allows to identify endogenous and exogenous peer effects while controlling for group-level fixed effects. We explore some heterogeneities related to the school type (private, public or rural). The estimates suggest the existence of endogenous peer effects but their magnitude and significance depend on subject and school type.