Economic and productivity growth decomposition: An application to post-reform China

This paper examines and applies the theoretical foundation of the decomposition of economic and productivity growth to the thirty provinces in China's post-reform economy. The four attributes of economic growth are input growth, adjusted scale effect, technical progress, and efficiency growth. A stochastic frontier model with a translog production and incorporated with human capital is used to estimate the growth attributes in China. The empirical results show that input growth is the major contributor to economic growth and human capital is inadequate even though it has a positive and significant effect on growth. Technical progress is the main contributor to productivity growth and the scale effect has become important in recent years. The impact of technical inefficiency is statistical insignificant in the sample period. The relevant policy implication for a sustainable post-reform China economy is the need to promote human capital accumulation and improvement in technical efficiency.     

School tracking and intergenerational income mobility: Evidence from the Finnish comprehensive school reform

This paper estimates the effect of a major education reform on intergenerational income mobility. The Finnish comprehensive school reform of 1972–1977 replaced the old two-track school system with a uniform nine-year comprehensive school and shifted the selection of students to vocational and academic tracks from age 11 to age 16. We estimate the effect of this reform on the intergenerational income elasticity using a representative sample of males born between 1960 and 1966. The identification strategy relies on a differences-in-differences approach and exploits the fact that the reform was implemented gradually across the country during a six-year period. The results indicate that the reform reduced the intergenerational income elasticity by 23% from the pre-reform elasticity of 0.30 to post-reform elasticity of 0.23.     

New evidence of regional income divergence in post-reform Russia

This article investigates regional income convergence in Russia during 2000–2008. We test the hypothesis in which income divergence across regions of the country should give place to income convergence as the country moves toward free market economy with strong market institutions. The study contributes to the existing literature by using the exponential smooth autoregressive Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test in a panel setup, a novel econometric technique, which encompasses cross sectional dependence. Results show strong evidence of on-going regional income divergence in post-reform period.     

中国核心通胀率与产出缺口经验分析

利用新菲利普斯曲线,本文设定包含通胀与产出的非观测成分模型估计中国的核心通胀率与产出缺口。通过卡尔曼滤波平滑推断程序,季度通胀和产出均被分解为互相独立的趋势成分和周期成分。估计结果表明,二十年来我国的潜在产出变化相对于传统HP滤波结果更为平滑,其近似呈线性增长。这意味着我国产出特征可通过简洁的趋势平稳过程来描述,而Nelson and Plosser(1982)以来普遍采用的单位根过程未必是刻画我国产出的最优模型。核心通胀率推断还表明,1998-2002年间的通货紧缩并非如物价指数下降表现的一样严重。     

Demand for money in the selected OECD countries: a time series panel data approach and structural breaks

Time series panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 11 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for which consistent quarterly data are available. The effects of financial reforms are analysed with structural break tests and estimates for alternative sub-samples. Our results for the post-reform sub-samples show that the income elasticity of the demand for money has decreased and response to interest rate changes has increased.     

Market deregulation,trade liberalization and productive efficiency in Bangladesh agriculture: an empirical analysis

The impact of trade liberalization and of market deregulation in general, on the performance of agriculture remains contentious and empirical issue in the literature. Following the random coefficient frontier modelling framework, this paper attempts to contribute to this debate by computing the farm-specific productive efficiency indices in Bangladesh agriculture before and after reform. It also examines the impact of some farm-specific and policy variables on productive efficiency. The empirical results show that there are wide variations in productive efficiency across farms and regions and the average efficiency of all regions increased modestly by 8 percentage points from the pre-reform to post-reform period. The efficiency differentials are largely explained by farm size, infrastructure, households' off-farm income and the reduction of government anti-agricultural bias in relation to trade and domestic policies. The implication of these results suggests the need for further policy reform to augment productive efficiency.     

Productivity Growth and its Components in Chinese Agriculture after Reforms

This study uses nonparametric Malmquist procedures to investigate the temporal and spatial nature of productivity growth and its components in Chinese agriculture over the period 1980–1995. The results of this study indicate that total factor productivity grew at 2.4% annually with technical change augmenting the growth by 3.8% while efficiency change reduced productivity growth by 1.3%. For all provinces, 288 out of a total of 442 cases experienced productivity growth while the rest showed productivity regression during this post-reform period. Coexistence of improvement in technical change and retardation in efficiency change indicates the lack of success in diffusing the existing agricultural technology. Continuing innovation and efficiency improvement through capital investment, modern input use, and greater competitive market pressures are important for augmenting productivity growth in Chinese agriculture.     

Shift from gross profit taxation to distributed profit taxation: Are there effects on firms?

This paper investigates the consequences of the corporate tax reform in Estonia in 2000. This unique reform nullified the taxation of retained earnings and maintained corporate income tax only on distributed profits. We investigate the outcome of the reform by comparing the performance of the affected firms in Estonia with that of firms from Latvia and Lithuania, the two other Baltic countries. We use firm-level financial data and the difference in differences approach for our analysis. The results are consistent with an increase in holdings of liquid assets and lower use of debt financing after the reform. A positive relationship of the reform with post-reform investment and productivity has also been found. The results point to a stronger effect on smaller firms.     

资本形成、工业化与经济增长:中国的转轨特征

把中国的经济转轨、增长与工业化联系起来是本文的一个尝试。作者认为 ,中国的经济增长在近年来越来越表现出静态的特征 ,至今尚不具备持续的动态改进的力量 ,而中国在 2 0世纪 80年代以后的转轨过程则又典型地表现为以新兴工业部门的进入和扩张为特征的持续的工业化过程。本文给出了一个帮助理解转轨后中国经济增长可持续性的概念框架和经验描述。在这个框架里 ,中国的经济增长在过去 1 0年来所表现出的下降趋势可以由过度的工业化进程来解释。     

POST-REFORM PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE AND SOURCES OF GROWTH IN CHINESE INDUSTRY: 1980–85

This paper examines the productivity growth and its sources in 39 Chinese industries in the post-reform period 1980–85. We use both the gross-output and value-added models to isolate the contributions of labor, capital, materials and technical efficiency to growth in industrial output. Using new data from the National Industrial Census of China (1988) for large and medium-size enterprises, we find that Chinese industries, in particular, those in the manufacturing experienced sharp increases in total factor productivity growth in the 1984–85 period as compared to the 1980–84 period. Moreover, collective and private enterprises show higher output and total factor productivity gains than do state enterprises. Our regression results show that total factor productivity gains are closely tied to increases in retained profits and the proportion of total employees that are technical workers. However, labor bonuses have a negative effect on total factor productivity growth.     

增长、资本形成与技术选择:解释中国经济增长下降的长期因素

对于一个劳动力供给如此富裕的经济,中国的经济增长率为什么在90年代中期以来持续下降?本文依赖"新古典"的增长理论对此做了解释。文章首先发现了改革以来中国的资本-产出比率与增长率之间存在着一个显著的负相关关系,然后给出了对这一关系的理论解释。文章认为,出现这个负相关关系的主要原因是资本的形成对经济增长表现出不敏感。在此基础上文章指出,中国经济增长率在近年来的持续下降可以由资本形成过快、从而投资收益出现持续恶化来解释。而不应简单地理解为(短期)总需求不足的结果。这意味着,缺乏一个有效率的投资体制和金融体系是中国经济未来持续增长的严重制约。     

和谐制度理论分析模型研究——后改革时期的制度经济学思考

当前的经济运行状况表明,我国改革已进入后改革时期,这是以完善与市场机制相配套的利益制度为主要目标的改革阶段。为此,笔者建构了以权利配置和资源配置互动为研究线索、以制度分析的四维展开为研究向度、以和谐三角的价值构造为评判标准的和谐制度理论分析模型,以明确后改革时期的制度调整方向。     

Liquidity constraint,uncertainty and household consumption in China

This paper investigates the changing roles played by liquidity constraint and uncertainty in accounting for the dynamism of Chinese household consumption behaviour. Starting from the Euler equation-based model of Robert Hall, a framework encompassing an array of consumption models is developed and applied to Chinese data over the period 1961?1998. Empirical results reveal a regime shift in the early 1980s and imply that increases in the proportion of liquidity constrained consumers and increased uncertainty in the post-reform period are responsible for the extremely low consumption or high savings in China. Moreover, it is found that interactions between liquidity constraint and uncertainty reinforce each other's effects and lead to declines in both the level and growth of consumption.     

An evaluation of the success of the hungarian economic reform: An analysis using international-trade data

The behavior of centrally planned economies (CPE's) will markedly differ from that of market economies (ME's). Tests of the success of decentralizing reforms in Hungary are based on comparing the behavior of post-reform Hungary to CPE's and ME's at similar levels of development. The basis of comparison is the pattern of comparative advantage. Discriminant analysis is used to examine whether there are significant differences between CPE's and ME's. The discriminant function, a linear function of the comparative advantages, is then used to classify pre- and post-reform Hungary. The results indicate that the reform has been effective.     

ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND GROWTH IN U.S. STATE‐LEVEL MARKET INCOMES AT THE TOP AND BOTTOM

This paper investigates the relationship between economic freedom and income growth and inequality across U.S. states over the period 1979–2011. The focus is on market income at the top and bottom of the income distribution. Results show that increases in overall freedom are associated with average income growth. When viewed separately, an increase in overall freedom is associated with larger income growth rates for income earners in the bottom 90% relative to the top 10%. Interestingly, results show that increases in overall economic freedom are related to larger relative growth rates for the top 10% incomes within high‐income states and larger relative growth rates for the bottom 90% incomes within low‐income states. Top‐to‐bottom income ratio regressions suggest a negative and statistically significant relationship between economic freedom and income inequality. (JEL D63, P16, R11)     

Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach

This paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and GDP for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002. Based on the income levels defined by the World Bank, the data are divided into four categories: low income group, lower middle income group, upper middle income group, and high income group. We employ the GMM-SYS approach for the estimation of the panel VAR model in each of the four groups. Afterwards, the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained. We discover: (a) in the low income group, there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; (b) in the middle income groups (lower and upper middle income groups), economic growth leads energy consumption positively; (c) in the high income group countries, economic growth leads energy consumption negatively. After further in-depth analysis of energy related data, the results indicate that, in the high income group, there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of CO₂. However, in the upper middle income group countries, after the energy crisis, the energy efficiency declines and the release of CO₂ rises. Since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups, a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries.     

THE "REAL" CHINESE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) FOR THE PRE-REFORM PERIOD 1952–77

This paper develops an econometric method based on the relationship between GDP and NMP to estimate an unknown Chinese GDP series of 1952–77 using recently available Chinese GDP data of 1978–90 and a reconstructed NMP series of 1952–90. In this manner, a long-term (1952–90) series of China's GDP has been obtained for long-term analyses. A reassessment of Chinese economic performance of 1952–90 using this series suggests that the paper's estimate provides a reasonable reflection of both the Chinese pre-and post-reform economic growth in terms of production structure, growth pattern and policy changes. A series of China's per capita GDP in U.S. dollars which is comparable to the World Bank's estimate for the early 1980s has also been obtained.     

The dependence structure of income distribution

This article investigates the dependence structure of income distribution in the US by providing two approaches – one regression-based and the other copula-based – to reveal new information about income dependence. The system of Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) is estimated for both quintile income shares and mean income growth by controlling for macroeconomic variables, and Kendall's tau statistics are derived for income dependence. Results from less restrictive copula models corroborate the regression-based results. However, income growth models do not support the common claim that the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer. Income dependence patterns do not appear to be affected by business cycles, but Democratic and Republican presidential administrations have drastically different income dependence results.     

银行盈利的宏微观因素——对中国银行业的实证研究

This paper seeks to examine the determinants of the profitability of the Chinese banking sector during the post-reform period of 2000–2005. The empirical findings from this study suggest that all the determinants variables have statistically significant impact on China banks profitability. However, the impacts are not uniform across bank types. We find that liquidity, credit risk, and capitalization have positive impacts on the state owned commercial banks (SOCBs) profitability, while the impact of cost is negative. Similar to their SOCB counterparts, we find that joint stock commercial banks (JSCB) with higher credit risk tend to be more profitable, while higher cost results in a lower JSCB profitability levels. During the period under study, the empirical findings suggest that size and cost results in a lower city commercial banks (CITY) profitability, while the more diversified and relatively better capitalized CITY tend to exhibit higher profitability levels. The impact of economic growth is positive, while growth in money supply is negatively related to the SOCB and CITY profitability levels.