Development and income distribution in a dual economy: A dynamic simulation model for Zambia

This paper discusses medium-term development prospects for Zambia. The analysis is carried out in terms of a modified dual economy model, suitably modified to capture a number of key aspects of the Zambian Economy. Mining is separated from other urban production and the rural sector is sub-divided into traditional, emergent, and commercial farming. Simulations are carried out on the basis of alternative governmental expenditure, investment, and taxation policies. Special attention is paid to sectoral employment and income distribution implications. In addition, the model is used to derive a number of shadow prices which would be used for project appraisal. These include the shadow price of government savings and a social discount rate.     

Optimal taxation in a monetary economy with financial intrmediaries

The problem of optimal taxation when the government must levy distorting taxes to meet its revenue needs is considered for a monetary economy with financial intermediaries. In contrast to most other studies of optimal taxation in a monetary economy, money is treated as an intermediate good which is held because doing so economizes on the scarce resources that must be devoted to the exchange process. Attention is focused on the roles of the inflation tax, reserve requirements, and deposit taxes. The key result is that revenue considerations do not justify taxing cash and deposits. That is, the optimal tax structure calls for adopting the optimum quantity of money rule and setting deposit taxes to zero. When the optimal tax structure is in place, reserve requirements turn out to be irrelevant from both the fiscal and welfare perspectives.     

Optimal taxation in a spatial economy with transport costs

Drawing on both optimal tax theory and residential location theory, this paper investigates optimal first- and second-best taxation in a spatial urban economy with transport costs. The introduction of space and transport costs into optimal tax theory creates a number of complications. Most importantly, spatial efficiency, as well as the more familiar forms of efficiency, needs to be considered in determining the optimal set of taxes. The results are of particular interest in the context of local public finance. The paper provides a method for determining the shadow rent on land in the presence of distortionary taxation, and also a framework for analyzing other distortions in a spatial economy.     

An equilibrium model of a second economy market in a centrally planned economy

We study a CPE in which an identical good is sold on the official market (OM) and a “second economy” market (SEM ). Planners set parameters. Managers divide inputs between markets to maximize expected utility of wealth. Consumers are expected utility maximizers who purchase the good on the OM or SEM. On the OM, excess demand exists at the non-Walrasian price; delivery date is stochastic. The SEM offers immediate availability. Our solution concept involves the rational expectations of managers, the consistency of consumers' decisions, and a market-clearing SEM. We solve for SEM price and supply and investigate various comparative statics.     

Dynamic environmental policy in developing countries with a dual economy

We analyze a dynamic model of environmental policy in a stylized developing country (DC) with a dual economy. This DC's economy is distorted in part because the government subsidizes the exports of the nonpolluting sector of the economy. We analyze the employment and output effects of three different pollution taxes. These taxes incorporate alternate assumptions about the DC government's ability to commit to its announced course of action. We describe the taxes, we examine the dependence of these taxes on the extant distortion, and we stipulate the conditions which call for an activist policy, irrespective of the length of time to which the government can commit to its announced policy. Inter alia, our analysis shows why some DC governments may not be serious about environmental protection.     

Equilibrium prices in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

Summary. This paper presents a model of a Walrasian exchange economy in which the preferences and endowments of the agents are random. Stochastic interaction among the agents is formally described in terms of dependency neighborhoods. The main result is a characterization of the distribution of market-clearing prices in a large economy. Received: April 23, 1999; revised version: May 6, 1999     

Money and growth in a cash-in-advance economy with costly credit

This paper develops a stochastic growth model with a cash-in-advance constraint, costly credit, and intermediary services. We study how the behavior of financial intermediaries affects the relationship between economic growth and the monetary system. We show that the payment that intermediaries charge for providing financial services influences the money–growth relationship. When the intermediation cost increases proportionally with credit purchases, we do not observe any influence of growth on the monetary system. When the intermediation cost is not proportional to credit purchases, growth is responsible for a transformation of the monetary system, i.e. money is relatively driven out of the economy as the economy grows.     

Optimal accumulation in a small open economy with technological uncertainty

Summary. This paper analyzes the optimal allocation problem of a small trading country facing an uncertain technology. It is involved in production of many commodities. Differentiability cannot be guaranteed, hence, the Ramsey-Euler condition of optimality needs to be modified. From the optimality criterion, we derive a pair of conditions, which does not require differentiability. If “enough” uncertainty is allowed, the sequence of the distribution functions of investment expenditure converges uniformly to a unique invariant measure. In addition to the weak convergence of the stochastic process of investment expenditure we also have the sequences of the stochastic process of investment expenditure converging weakly. Received: September 8, 1994; revised version: September 25, 1997     

Indeterminacy in a small open economy with endogenous labor supply

Summary. We establish conditions under which indeterminacy can occur in a small open economy business cycle model with endogenous labor supply. Indeterminacy requires small externalities in technologies with social constant returns to scale, independently of the intertemporal elasticities in both consumption and labor. Received: December 12, 2001; revised version: May 17, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"The paper has benefited from discussions with Jess Benhabib and Mark Weder, as well as from the comments of an anonymous referee. Correspondence to: Q. Meng     

Optimal income taxation with a stationarity constraint in a dynamic stochastic economy

We consider the optimal nonlinear income taxation problem in a dynamic, stochastic environment when the government cannot change the tax rule as uncertainty resolves. Due to such a stationarity constraint, our taxation problem is reduced to a static one over an expanded type space that incorporates type evolution. We strengthen the argument in the static model that the zero top marginal tax rate result is of little practical importance because it only applies to the top of the expanded type space. If the maximal type increases over time, the person with top ability in any period but the last has a positive marginal tax rate.     

Real indeterminacy of equilibria in a sunspot economy with inside money

Summary In a two-period sunspot economy with inside money andS possible realizations of the sunspot, we prove that, genetically in the space of utility functions, there areS — 1 degrees of real indeterminacy. This result generalizes the previously known result for sunspot models that, generically in endowments, there is at least one degree of real indeterminacy. The proof involves showing that generically the equilibrium allocation is different across states for some household. This property allows us to perturb the utility function in a simple way and to apply standard transversality arguments to prove our main theorem.We would like to thank David Cass, Atsushi Kajii, Michael Mandler and Paolo Siconolfi for helpful discussions.     

Fiscal policy in a small open economy with cross-border labor mobility

The large and stable inflow of workers’ remittances through formal financial channels to developing countries prompted authorities to harness fiscal resources from this flow. This paper develops a macro-dynamic model of a small open economy with cross-border labor mobility emphasizing fiscal policy. The flow of remittances is the result of a household’s optimizing decision to migrate. We examine the macroeconomic responses to fiscal policies. First, we show that an economy with international migration is more resilient to demand shocks resulting from fiscal contraction. Second, the short-run association between remittances and domestic output depends on the sources of the shocks. Third, our results indicate that the equilibrium impact of a tax on remittances can be expansionary and welfare-improving when an economy is initially close to full employment. The presence of utility-enhancing government expenditure and a potential negative externality from over-allocation of labor abroad (over migration) justify the presence of distortionary taxes.     

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

Summary. In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy. Received June 7, 2001; revised version: January 7, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I would like to thank Mukul Majumdar and Thomas DiCiccio for helpful discussion and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions.     

Credit cycles in a Neo-Austrian economy

This paper discusses the relationship between firms’ access to credit market and business fluctuations in a sequential Neo-Austrian economy. Existence of cycles reflects a fundamental distortion in the intertemporal structure of production, that is a lack of coordination between utilization of productive capacity and construction of new machines. The role of credit market institutions is to sustain viability of the economy along an out-of-equilibrium transition. Allowing for a high degree of price flexibility turns out not to be a general response to boosts in capital accumulation and employment. When we focus on an irreversible, off-equilibrium dynamics the coordination of policy interventions becomes a relevant tool to govern fluctuations.     

Constant-utility paths in a resource-based economy

This paper analyzes a social planner's solution in a resource-based economy under a constant-utility criterion. The utility function includes social progress in a multiplicative form. The resulting paths of consumption include the patterns of growth that are conventionally used in the literature. A closed form solution, derived for the Dasgupta-Heal-Solow (DHS) model, includes the Solow–Hartwick result as a special case. This paper extends the link between the utilitarian criterion and the maximin for the cases with finite elasticity of marginal utility. The result also implies that economic growth in a resource-based economy may be slower than exponential; therefore, the expression for utility with social progress may become a more appropriate measure of sustainable growth than the percentage of consumption growth.     

Asset-return anomalies in a monetary economy

This paper provides a general equilibrium, choice theoretic, spatial model which explains the preference for holding barren money rather than interest-bearing securities or capital goods. Put somewhat differently, it examines standard asset pricing relationships in the context of a fully articulated monetary economy and delivers various asset-return anomalies. In seeking to integrate the theory of value with the theory of money, a fairly general proof of the existence of a monetary equilibrium is provided.     

Business groups in a market economy

The purpose of this paper is to examine the nature and significance of the interfirm relationship called the business group. First, the nature of the Japanese business group is discussed. It is then pointed out that the business group is not a phenomenon unique to Japan, and an effort is made to explain the significance of the business group in the context of a market economy, using the Williamsonian approach to questions of internal organization and the market. Finally, the relationship between the input-output relationship of the firms and their group affiliation is tested.     

Soft landing in a Markov-switching economy

We analyse the monetary policy implications of boom–bust cycles in asset prices using a Markov-switching rational expectations model. In our simulations, when a bubble bursts, the Taylor rule fails to achieve a soft landing, contrary to the optimal policy.