Why is Productivity so Dispersed?

Many papers have documented wide variations in productivityeven in narrowly defined industries. Some have argued that thisprimarily reflects measurement problems due, for example, tocomparing across different products. Others argue that thisreflects persistent differences in performance due, for example,to management. This paper looks at productivity differencesnot within an industry but within a firm. We use data on productivityof different branches within lines of business of a major UK-basedwholesaler. Using these productivity data for comparisons is,we argue, more likely to compare like with like than comparingbetween firms. We document sustained differences in productivityeven between branches within the same line of business. We alsodiscuss the extent to which they are correlated with differencesin management and find that such differences ‘account’for around 40 per cent of the difference in productivity. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: r.griffith{at}ifs.org.uk; j.e.haskel{at}qmul.ac.uk;a.neely{at}cranfield.ac.uk     

Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?

Larger data sets, with more countries and a longer span of time, exhibit systematically larger effects of European monetary union on trade. I establish this stylized fact with meta-analysis and confirm it by estimating a plain-vanilla gravity model. I then explain this finding by examining systematic biases in “multilateral resistance to trade” manifest in time-varying country fixed effects; bias grows as the sample is truncated by dropping small poor countries.     

Why is the Labor Share so Low in Turkey?

The labor share in the income of Turkey is confoundingly low according to official figures. By comparison, the average labor share of OECD members is two times higher than that of Turkey. Is this because labor productivity is low, or is it because imperfect competition, which amplifies profits, is overwhelmingly high in Turkey? We estimate preferences, technology parameters, and price markup in a dynamic general equilibrium model to answer this question using GMM. To our surprise, the results suggest that the crucial factor suppressing the share of labor in Turkey is high price markup, and the role of low productivity of labor is negligible. The results are robust to the use of different instrumental variables.     

Why do Filipinos desire to work more hours?

In 2018, 16.4 per cent of Filipino workers stated that they wanted to have more work hours in their present jobs, to have an additional job, or to have a new job with longer work hours, that is, they declared themselves under-employed. Analysis of the 2015 Labor Force Survey data shows that relative to being full-time employed and not under-employed, the major determinant of being under-employed is the basic pay. Region, educational attainment, sector, and primary occupation are much less important determinants.     

Why do people oppose foreign acquisitions? Evidence from Japanese individual-level data

This study empirically examines the determinants of individuals’ attitudes about inward foreign direct investment (FDI) using responses from questionnaire surveys that were originally designed. Individuals’ preferences for inward FDI differ between greenfield investments and mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and people are more likely to have a negative attitude toward M&A than greenfield investments. People with a negative image of the so-called “vulture fund” for foreign capital tend to oppose inward FDI, and this is more pronounced for M&A than greenfield investments. Moreover, loss aversion and high time preference rates are strongly related to opposition to inward FDI, and people with such behavioral biases tend to refuse indigenous firms to be acquired by foreign capital, even if they agree to accept greenfield investment. These results indicate that people’s preferences for inward FDI depend more on non-economic attributes than economic attributes. Our results also suggest that a lack of economic literacy is associated with unconscious biases against accepting inward FDI.     

Why do commercial banks hold government bonds? The case of Japan

We investigate the determinants of the demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by commercial banks in Japan. In particular, by estimating portfolio equations for JGB demand and bank loans, based on a panel data set from the late 1990s to the 2000s, we rigorously test the popular assertion that the long stagnation of the real economy caused a shift in the portfolios of commercial banks from bank lending to JGBs. We find that the popular assertion is not empirically supported. Rather, the portfolio shift from loans to JGBs has been caused by a fall in the ratio of the loan rate to unit lending costs, or the bank’s price–cost margin for lending.     

Why does so much FDI from Hong Kong and Taiwan go to Mainland China?

While the European Union, the US, and Japan (the Triad) supply 90% of global foreign direct investment (FDI) and China is the second largest FDI recipient in the world, most FDI into China did not come from the Triad but from Hong Kong and Taiwan (HKT). Evidence presented in the paper reveals that the unusually large amount of Hong Kong–Taiwan direct investment (HKTDI) cannot be fully appreciated without understanding China's location characteristics and differences between HKTDI and the Triad FDI. Four determinants of the dominant HKTDI in China are identified: China's export-promotion FDI strategy, its large pool of cheap labor, HKT's specific advantages in export-oriented FDI, and their unique links with China (the Chinese connections). Empirical results suggest that HKTDI was primarily motivated by low labor costs while FDI from the Triad was market-oriented. As China's domestic markets become more open to foreign investors, the share of HKTDI may shrink and the importance of FDI from the Triad may rise.     

Why are there so many civil wars in Africa? Understanding and preventing violent conflict

Contrary to popular belief, Africa's civil wars are not dueto its ethnic and religious diversity. Using recently developedmodels of the overall incidence of civil wars in 161 countriesbetween 1960 and 1999, we draw lessons with special referenceto Africa, showing that the relatively higher incidence of warin Africa is not due to the ethno-linguistic fragmentation ofits countries, but rather to high levels of poverty, failedpolitical institutions and economic dependence on natural resources.We argue that the best and fastest strategy to reduce the incidenceof civil war in Africa and prevent future civil wars is to institutedemocratic reforms that effectively manage the challenges facingAfrica's diverse societies. To promote inter-group cooperationin Africa, specially tailored political governance and economicmanagement institutions are needed, and we advance some hypotheseson the nature of such institutions. We suggest that Africa'sethnic diversity in fact helps - rather than impedes - the emergenceof stable development as it necessitates inter-group bargainingprocesses. These processes can be peaceful if ethnic groupsfeel adequately represented by their national political institutionsand if the economy provides opportunity for productive activity.     

What influences aggregate inflation expectations of households in India?

We analyse the factors influencing Indian households’ inflation expectations and draw out implications for inflation targeting. The literature finds news on inflation affecting expectations. Using quarterly data from India over 2008–2019, we find: (i) in estimated epidemiological models of learning in expectation formation, the response coefficient on inflation news in the shape of central bank forecasts exceeds coefficients estimated for advanced economies, implying official views having a relatively greater weight on expectations; (ii) error variance decompositions of expectations to shocks in variables including commodity and core inflations, demand and policy variables in a series of SVARs, also show policy communications affecting expectations in the short-term. Food inflation has a significant short-run effect on expectations, but demand determined core inflation dominates over the long run; (iii) impulse responses show a rise in the policy rate raising expectations. The above results show communications as more effective than policy rates in influencing inflation expectations.     

Why do exports react less to real exchange rate depreciations than to appreciations? Evidence from Pakistan

We examine if and why export responses to real exchange depreciations are lower than those to appreciations. We document this asymmetric response using macro-level data for Pakistan and show that export adjustments after depreciations are less than one-third as fast as those to appreciations. We use product-destination level data to examine three complementary drivers of this asymmetry: (i) information frictions that increase the search costs of finding new clients; (ii) supply constraints related limited access to credit that reduce exporters’ capacity to scale up after relative prices become more favorable; and (iii) reduced prices in US dollars offered by international buyers after local currency depreciations, akin to a pricing-to-market mechanism. We find evidence of the three drivers explaining the dampened export response to depreciations. Policymakers in developing countries should consider addressing these issues to maximize export responses to real depreciations.     

Where do migrants go?

In this paper, we study migration decisions taken by risk-aversehouseholds. Aggregate data from the regions of Southern Italyare used to test whether risk is a significant determinant ofthe decision to migrate abroad or inside the country. This indeedappears to be the case for both foreign and domestic migrations,after controlling for unemployment and wage differentials andother plausible control variables. We interpret our resultsas evidence that, whereas financial markets are absent or malfunctioning,migration provides a shelter against uncertain income prospects     

Why Are Input-Output Tables Important?

The new input-output tables published by Rosstat for 2011–2015 are indeed an achievement worth celebrating. These tables form a comprehensive picture of the economy that show how its many parts are connected. They serve as a basis for national accounts and for envisioning possible futures for the economy.     

What matters more for South African households’ debt repayment difficulties?

While the increased access to consumer credit has helped many families improve their welfare, the rising repayment burdens upon a background of chronically low saving rates have generated concerns that South African families are becoming ever more financially fragile and less able to meet their consumer debt repayment obligations. Using data from the Cape Area Panel Study, this article investigates whether consumer debt repayment problems are better explained by excessive spending which leaves households financially overstretched or by negative income shocks. The results indicate that households are significantly more likely to be delinquent on their financial obligations when they suffer negative events beyond their control rather than due to the size of the expenditure burden. This suggests that consumer repayment problems are likely to endure even when consumers borrow within their means. Thus, regulatory efforts to improve mechanisms for debt relief might be more meaningful than restrictions on lending.     

Why is Chinese provincial output diverging?

In a recent paper Pedroni and Yao (2006) present strong evidence suggesting that Chinese provincial per-capita output is diverging, a result that goes against the Chinese government’s goal of a balanced wealth-creation across provinces. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the reasoning behind this finding. Our main result is that the divergence does exist, even when new data and more advanced methods of analysis are used. We also find that it has both an idiosyncratic and a common component. Hence, the increased per-capita output inequalities observed at the provincial level is due to both province-specific disparities and to disparities between groups of provinces.     

Why is the forecast error of quarterly GDP in Japan so large? – From an international comparison of quarterly GDP forecast situation

We examined the accuracy of prediction of Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States from the viewpoint of forecast errors. Compared with the forecast error of each country at the around same time, the forecast error of Japan is about 2 times larger. In case of Japan, even immediately before release of quarterly GDP, the forecast error is over 1 %, which is the same level of forecast error as 94 days before in the United States and 135 days before in Canada.Evaluating the characteristics of forecast errors, it can be pointed out that Japan's forecasts are as efficient as those of other countries, and the addition of major economic statistics is unlikely to improve forecast errors. The reason for Japan's large forecast errors is the fluctuations in the GDP growth rate. These results provide evidence that volatile GDP may make the outlook worse.Large fluctuations in Japan's quarterly GDP have already been pointed out. It is necessary to examine the factors behind the large fluctuations in the rate of change in Japan's quarterly GDP.     

Which eligible households get grants? Demographic correlates of receipt in South Africa

Since Apartheid, the South African government transformed and expanded the social grants system to improve the well-being of its vulnerable populations. Despite increased efforts, a sub-section of the grant-eligible population is not reached. Too little is known about the factors that contribute to grant receipt, especially for the household as a whole. This article examines the household and community characteristics associated with grant receipt among poor households in KwaZulu-Natal. We add to previous work by assessing grant receipt at the household level, examining receipt of the two major grants and analysing correlates in a multivariate framework. While associations with grant receipt are complex and varied, we find higher grant receipt (especially the Child Support Grant) among more disadvantaged households. We also find that characteristics across multiple domains are needed to best distinguish household grant receipt. We discuss theoretical implications for models of grant receipt and practical implications for improving grant access.