Seventy Years of Economic Development: A Review from the Angle of New Structural Economics

This review paper provides a new narrative by combing through the experiences of structural transformation among developing countries and discussing the roles of government and market in different contexts. Country performance has been influenced by the prevailing development thinking: the structuralism in the 1950s–1970s, which stresses an active government's role to overcome market failures for industrialization, and the neoliberalism in the 1980s–present, which advocates for eliminating government failures to build up a well‐functioning market. We find that almost all countries failing by following structuralism in their industrialization and neoliberalism in their transition to a market economy, and the few countries successful in catching up have a few characteristics that go against the prevailing structuralism and neoliberalism. The new structural economics, generated from the experiences of successful East Asian economies and proposing active facilitating roles of government in a market economy to remove market failures, will gain traction and take root.     

Contribution of external aid agencies to the social sector: Lessons for South Africa

The contribution of a major aid agency, UNICEF, to the social sector in three African countries is reviewed and important lessons are drawn for developing the social sector in South Africa. UNICEF's commitment to children and women and its substantial development expertise bestow many advantages on developing bilateral relations with UNICEF. It is equally important to develop sound social policies and adequate community‐based programmes in which UNICEF's expertise and resources can be incorporated. Guidelines are formulated for reducing dependence and vulnerability to donor assistance in the social sector.     

An introduction to problems of economic development in the CMEA countries

Through the Asian financial crisis, many key international economic issues have come to the forefront the stability of the international financial system under the IMF, “Asian values”, the universal validity of the Asian Economic Development Model, China's leadership in the regional world economy, Japan's role in the region, and the immunity of Greater China from the current financial crisis. Currently, most Asian countries seem eager to redress structural problems involving the government sector, banking, and corporate governance. In the process of this full scale restructuring, Korea must reevaluate its economic relationship with Central Asia. This paper argues that Korean financial crisis stems basically from the system failure. Furthermore, since a small open economy carries with it intrinsic vulnerabilities, the government should be more careful in securing optimal foreign exchange, opening capital markets based on the economy's absorption capacity. In this respect, the banking industry should be run based on the profitability of capital. Once banking industries are distorted by the practice of government‐led policy loans, it is more difficult to correct those customized distortions. The banking industry should play a larger role as the “brain of the economy”, sensing abnormalities of the economy. Moreover, in today's increasingly interdependent global economic system, no single country can solve its problems without close coordination of its policy with the outside world. An early warning system to signal financial instability would help developing economies in modernizing and strengthening their domestic financial institutions and would also work as a supplement to the IMF standby fund. Also, human resource management has proven too important to be neglected. Central Asia could derive lessons from the above Asian “failure”, not the Asian “miracle”, to avoid inappropriate policies and to deepen its economic development.     

Did the New Deal solidify the 1932 Democratic realignment?

The critical election of 1932 represented a turning point in the future electoral successes of the Democrats and Republicans for over three decades. This paper seeks to measure the importance of the New Deal in facilitating the Democrats' control of the federal government well into the 1960s. We test whether long-differences in the county-level electoral support for Democratic presidential candidates after the 1930s can be attributed to New Deal interventions into local economies. We also investigate more narrowly whether voters rewarded Roosevelt from 1932 to 1936 and from 1936 to 1940 for his efforts to stimulate depressed local economies. Our instrumental variable estimates indicate that increasing a county's per capita New Deal relief and public works spending from nothing to the sample mean ($145) would have increased the long-run support for the Democratic party by 2 to 2.5 percentage points. We further find that the long-run shift toward the Democratic party after 1928 was not a function of the Roosevelt landslide victory in 1932. Roosevelt's ability to win over voters during the 1936 and 1940 elections with New Deal spending, however, did matter for the long-term.     

Does government intervention affect banking globalization?

Using data from British and American banks, we provide empirical evidence that government intervention affects the global activities of individual banks along three dimensions: depth, breadth and persistence. We examine depth by studying whether a bank's preference for domestic, as opposed to external, lending (funding) changes when it is subjected to a large public intervention, such as bank nationalization. Our results suggest that, following nationalization, non-British banks allocate their lending away from the UK and increase their external funding. Second, we find that nationalized banks from the same country tend to have portfolios of foreign assets that are spread across countries in a way that is far more similar than those of either private banks from the same country or nationalized banks from different countries, consistent with an impact on the breadth of globalization. Third, we study the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to examine the persistence of the effect of large government interventions. We find weak evidence that upon entry into the TARP, foreign lending declines but domestic does not. This effect is observable at the aggregate level, and seems to disappear upon TARP exit. Collectively, this evidence suggests that large government interventions affect the depth and breadth of banking globalization, but may not persist after public interventions are unwound.     

英国远期约定政府购买制度对中国的启示

探索实施创新产品与服务远期约定政府购买制度是政府推动科技创新的重要举措。在分析远期约定政府购买制度的定义、实施远期约定政府购买制度的必要性和重要意义的基础上，对英国“远期约定采购”政策进行探索借鉴。研究发现，研发政策对市场创新推动乏力、市场需求对研发创新拉动失灵、传统公共采购未能有效捕捉创新点是英国远期约定政府购买政策出台的背景。并对英国远期约定采购的3个基础条件和4个基本流程进行梳理和分析。同时，对中国部分省市开展远期约定政府购买制度的经验及存在问题进行深入分析。最后，针对中国远期约定政府购买制度的大范围实施提出方向性建议与展望：研究制定符合GPA（政府采购协议）国际规则的远期约定政府购买制度；加大对中小企业产品的采购；建立创新产品政府采购使用信息反馈机制和数据平台。     

The economic development approach to legal reform for rural women: A methodological alternative

Legislative efforts to promote rural women's economic productivity have focused on strategies for improving access to and control over agricultural resources. Women make up 50 per cent of the world's farmers, but in many developing countries they are unable to hold or manage productive resources in their own name. Most legal proposals recommend family law reform as the entry point for change. This article argues for a broader approach. All the laws that affect rural economic development should be evaluated and linked in ways that promote rural women's integration into the economic mainstream. In agriculture the‐most important legislation is natural resource management, local government development and agricultural development and agricultural investment laws, including research, intellectual property protection, cooperatives, banking and marketing. Each law should be assessed from the perspective of four generic development attributes: how it contributes to women's representation in policymaking; what economic benefits it provides; whether it facilitates the evolution of organisational structures to help women attract capital; and whether there are clear systems for enforcing rights and therefore minimising risk. Next, the process is reversed to determine how the laws collectively support each of the four areas. This methodology allows the researcher to tease out and rearrange essential elements of a comprehensive enabling environment that provide a sufficient level of institutional support in all four areas across the entire spectrum of agricultural development.     

Biofuels and the policy implications for China

The paper explores China's biofuel policy and compares biofuel development in China and the rest of the world. It is argued that biofuel development depends on financial support, price intervention, and trade barriers, which all call for government support. China's biofuel industry is developing fast but under strict control. China should refer to other countries' experiences and make policy decisions according to national strategies and local conditions.     

Does Government Intervention Affect Banking Globalization?

Using data from British and American banks, we provide empirical evidence that government intervention affects the global activities of individual banks along three dimensions: depth, breadth and persistence. We examine depth by studying whether a bank's preference for domestic, as opposed to external, lending (funding) changes when it is subjected to a large public intervention, such as bank nationalization. Our results suggest that, following nationalization, non-British banks allocate their lending away from the UK and increase their external funding. Second, we find that nationalized banks from the same country tend to have portfolios of foreign assets that are spread across countries in a way that is far more similar than those of either private bank from the same country or nationalized banks from different countries, consistent with an impact on the breadth of globalization. Third, we study the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to examine the persistence of the effect of large government interventions. We find weak evidence that upon entry into the TARP, foreign lending declines but domestic does not. This effect is observable at the aggregate level, and seems to disappear upon TARP exit. Collectively, this evidence suggests that large government interventions affect the depth and breadth of banking globalization, but may not persist after public interventions are unwound.     

Lessons of Post-War Development Experience

Abstract: This paper traces the development process from the optimism of the post-war era to the present scenario of adjustment, retrenchment and stabilisation. What were the mistakes and the success stories, and the lessons that can be drawn from them these last 40 years ? The paper takes a hard look at the ‘Golden Years’ of the 1950s and 1960s; it analyses the ‘debt-led’ growth of the 1970s and the resulting lost decade of the 1980s in Africa and Latin America. It goes on to examine the successes and failures that emerge from the history of the development process, and argues in favour of learning these lessons by resuming a policy of ‘redistributionwith growth’ and re-establishing strong international institutions to ensure future growth in developing countries. Résumé: Le présent document retrace le processus de développement depuisl'optimisme de l'apres-guerre au scenario actuel de l'ajustement, de redressement et de stabilisation. Quels ont ete les erreurs et les SUCCCS et les enseignements que l'on pourrait en tirer au cours de ces 40 dernieres annees? Le document examine a fond la « belle epoque » des annees 1950 et 1960; il analyse la croissance guidee par la dette des annees 1970 et en consequence, la decennie perdue des annees 1980 en Afrique et en Amerique Latine. I1 continue en examinant les SUCCCS et les echecs provenant de l'histoire du processus de developpement et donne les raisons pour lesquelles ces enseignements doiventttre retenus en reprenant une politique de « nouvelle repartition et de croissance » et en creant de nouvelles institutions internationales assez solides capables d'assurer a l'avenir la croissance dans les pays en developpement.     

ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE: A REVIEW OF DEFINITIONS, THEORY AND EMPIRICS

Infrastructure investment, especially in South Africa, is currently at the forefront of policy and public debate. But the term ‘infrastructure’ has a variety of definitions and interpretations; the reason for the various definitions is related to infrastructure's various impacts and incidence. Three levels of infrastructure are identified: local, national and transnational. Infrastructure at all three levels are subject to certain market failures which require some form of government intervention. Furthermore, theory postulates a number of benefits from infrastructure, both on economic growth and equity. Both the quantity (access to infrastructure) and quality (reliability of infrastructure or accompanying services) are important. Finally, empirical analysis tests whether these theoretical benefits are indeed realised. However, it seems as though infrastructure empirics are subject to a number of serious limitations.     

The Impact of Special Economic Zones and Government Intervention on Firm Productivity: The Case of Batam,Indonesia

Various studies have explored the effects of industrial agglomeration and special economic zones (SEZs) in Asia, but there has been a lack of data-driven analysis of SEZ performance. This paper provides a case study on Batam, which has been developed as an SEZ through government-to-government (G2G) cooperation, offering lessons for other developing countries. The study examines the effects of industrial zones, foreign investment and government intervention on firm productivity, using an ex-post evaluation method and econometric models. The paper does not find conclusive evidence that Batam’s status as an SEZ affects firm productivity and growth. Although firm agglomeration proves beneficial for firm productivity, it is not clear that SEZ policy has driven this productivity. The paper argues that government policies should stimulate innovation and inter-firm cooperation to increase knowledge spillovers and technology transfer instead of focusing on attracting investment.     

Ride-Sharing,Fatal Crashes,and Crime

The advent of smart-phone based, ride-sharing applications has revolutionized the vehicle for hire market. Advocates point to the ease of use, lower prices, and shorter wait times compared to hailing a taxi or prearranging limousine service. Others argue that proper government oversight is necessary to protect ride-share passengers from driver error or vehicle parts failures and violence from unlicensed strangers. Using U.S. county-level data from 2007 through 2015, we investigate whether the introduction of the ride-sharing service Uber is associated with changes in fatal vehicle crashes and crime. We find that Uber's entry lowers the rate of DUIs and fatal accidents. For some specifications, we also find declines in arrests for assault and disorderly conduct. Conversely, we observe an increase in vehicle thefts.     

Can China's Diplomatic Partnership Strategy Benefit Outward Foreign Direct Investment?

In the context of global integration, whether a diplomatic partnership strategy can promote outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and how it works are very important issues for China. Based on a dataset featuring China's partnerships collected from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, we establish an empirical framework to assess the role of China's diplomatic strategy in its OFDI arising from partnerships since 1993. The results show that the establishment or upgrade of partnerships has had a positive effect on Chinese firms’ decisions on OFDI for at least the short term, especially for firms with higher demand for policy guarantees from the government, such as non‐central firms and non‐Beijing firms. The results also show that the increase in OFDI is concentrated in host countries with higher political risks, such as developing countries, neighboring countries, and Belt and Road countries, which is consistent with China's diplomatic focus. Our research proves that China's diplomatic strategy can assist firms to invest abroad.     

Managing the Indonesian economy: Some lessons from the past

This paper draws some tentative lessons for the management of Indonesia's economy from recent political–economic history. After a brief review of the economy under the present government, the paper then puts the picture in the longer term perspective of post-independence Indonesia. Some lessons are then drawn. They include the need to maintain awareness of the close connection between economics and politics, constant vigilance about economic stability and the budget, a solid economic team, a coherent overall strategy and a focus on institutions and governance.     

Testing the limits of privatization: Argentine railroads

Just how far can privatization be pushed, and with what consequences? Based on a study of Argentine railroads, this paper concludes that even large, unprofitable firms in developing countries faced with market failures can be privatized, but the gains from doing so depend on how badly the state enterprise was performing to begin with, and the potential for introducing competition in the market and for the market. The broader lesson is that when both market failures and government failures are present, a public-private solution is preferable to a purely private or a purely public solution. Privatization is not a panacea but potentially a palliative, when it comes to reducing subsidies or coping with regulatory failures.     

Developing Decentralized Capacity for Development Policy Analysis: Lessons for Agricultural Development from Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring in Malawi*

Abstract: Lack of sufficient analytical capacity in most of the developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa has been suggested frequently as a major factor determining the appropriateness of development policy interventions. This paper documents an approach implemented in Malawi for the past three years to develop decentralized capacity to analyze development policies and programs. A conceptual framework for identifying the areas of capacity strengthening in development policy analysis is developed. Generalizable lessons from Malawi's experience in decentralized capacity strengthening arc presented. Various issues that relate to enhancing the efficiency of capacity building programmes in sub-Saharan African are addressed. It is argued that continuous dialogue between development researchers and policy decisionmakers and between the trainers in academic institutions and donor agencies is fundamental for achieving the goals of improved capacity for development policy analysis. Résumé: On avance souvent que l'absence de capacité d'analyse suffisante dans la plupart des pays en développcment d'Afrique subsaharienne constitue l'un des facteurs qui conditionne l'opportunité des interventions en matière de politique de développement. Ce document présente unc approche mise en ocuvre au Malawi au cours des trois dernières années en vuc de développer la capacité décentralisée à analyser les politiques et programmes de développement. Il met au point un cadre conceptuel pour l'identification des domaines nécessitant un appui institutionnel au niveau de 1'analysc des politiques de développement. Des leçons susceptibles d'être généralisées sont tirées de l'expérience du Malawi en matière de renforcement de la capacité décentralisée. Diverses questions ayant trait à l'amélioration de l'efficacité des programmes de renforcement des capacités en Afrique subsaharienne sont abordées. Il est avancé que le dialogue permanent entre chercheurs s'intéressant au développcment et décideurs, et entre formateurs des institutions académiques et organismes d'aide est essentielle pour atteindrc l'objectif d'amélioration de la capacité d'analyse des politiques de développement.     

Tourism impact,distribution and development: The spatial structure of tourism in the Western Cape province of South Africa

The structural dimensions of a country's tourism sector, and in particular the spatial structure of tourism production and consumption, relate closely to the nature and extent of the impact that tourism can have. This article examines the spatial characteristics of tourism in the Western Cape province, one of South Africa's foremost international tourist regions, and where its government seeks to use tourism as an instrument of development and socio-economic transformation. To understand how this could be effected it is necessary to understand the spatial distributional effects of tourism, and the underlying reasons for it. To this end the article examines the spatial structure of the provincial accommodation sector as evidenced in patterns of accommodation supply and tourist usage (demand); and trends in the nature, direction and distribution of public and private-sector tourism investments. The central argument is that tourism is geographically focused, with tourist activities concentrated in a few locales and sub-regions. This follows the general demographic and economic contours of the province. Yet trends in capital investments tend to reinforce the spatial concentration of tourism. Attempts by the government to spread tourism's benefits have not been too successful due to institutional and capacity deficiencies. Greater emphasis should be placed on developing domestic tourism.     

The quality of host government and China’s OFDI: Construction of micro-evaluation model of government quality

Government is not only an important participant in the process of national governance, but also a firm executor and supervisor of national policies. In the process of China’s active promotion of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), the risks caused by the poor quality of the host government have not been paid enough attention to. This paper builds a micro-evaluation model of government quality from four aspects based on the quality of government expert survey. The results show that although the scores of developed countries are generally higher than those of developing countries, the growth of China’s OFDI in developing countries is higher than in developed countries. In particular, the growth of investment to the member states of The Belt and Road Initiative is more significant. How to realize mutually beneficial achievements between China's overseas investment and host countries with low government quality is an important issue for China.     

中美汇率之争的三个核心问题

中美汇率之争的三个核心问题是:第一,中国应该采用何种汇率制度?在这一问题上,美国政府提出了"浮动汇率制最优论"的伪命题,这一观点显然违背了经济学的常识。第二,人民币是否应该升值?这一问题的答案取决于中国贸易顺差是起因于低劳动力成本竞争优势还是起因于人民币汇率低估。如果是前者,那么美国没有理由要求人民币升值。第三,人民币升值会如何影响中美经济?本论文强调其长期影响要明显大于短期影响。就长期影响而言,人民币过度升值会缩短中国高速经济增长的可持续时间。