我国承销商利用分析师报告托市了吗?

学术界对于我国IPO市场是否存在承销商托市行为一直存在争议。本文通过搜集新股上市一年之内的分析师报告数据,系统考察了我国承销商利用分析师报告进行托市的行为特征,以及投资者对于承销商分析师具有托市性质报告的市场反应。结果发现:(1)承销商会利用乐观、但偏颇的分析师报告为市场表现不佳的新股进行托市,但这一现象在新股上市90天后消失;(2)声誉机制在新股解禁期后才能有效约束承销商利用分析师报告托市的利益冲突行为;(3)市场投资者总体上能够识别承销商的托市意图,并对承销商分析师报告的系统偏误进行自我调整。本文的研究不仅为我国承销商是否存在托市行为提供了新的直接性经验证据,而且有助于市场各方洞悉分析师报告背后的利益冲突,同时也为监管部门出台相关的规范政策提供了新的决策参考。     

新股发行上市溢价之谜的解释——基于中国证券市场的实证分析

实证研究表明,显著影响新股发行溢价的因素包括承销商和发行人的择时因素、市盈率水平、发行规模和发行政策的变化.新股上市首日大盘涨跌幅、中签率等因素对于新股发行溢价的影响并不明显.承销商和发行人的发行择时能力主要体现在未来30个交易日内股票市场的总体走势的判断上.     

承销商进行了IPO托市吗

IPO抑价来源于承销商托市的假说在成熟资本市场上得到了实证检验的支持,部分学者的研究表明,在中国IPO市场上同样存在承销商托市行为.本文通过对沪市1996-2004年间发行的651只A股IPO进行收益分布检验,发现IPO上市后前6日的收益分布出现了显著负偏现象,从而否定了中国IPO市场上存在承销商托市行为.进一步对锁定和非锁定样本的对比分析表明,负偏现象是由机构投资者的抛售行为引起的,锁定期限制减轻了IPO上市之初的价格波动.     

中国新股弱势问题研究

本文借鉴西方关于IPO的研究成果 ,结合中国股市的实际 ,对新股弱势问题展开实证研究 :(1 )考虑股票的内在风险性 ,采用经过风险调整的相对收益率CR 和累计相对收益率ACR 指标 ,揭示了以市值加权和不以市值加权的不同情况下 ,样本组合在新股、次新股和普通股的各个不同时期内相对于市场指数的走势特征 ;(2 )构造经济计量模型揭示股票上市后长期走势的影响因素 :对新股实际收益率影响最大的是该股票的市值 ;决定股票上市后两年内对市场指数走势强弱的因素是初始收益率及其流通股数     

承销商托市问题初探

承销商托市原则上应该属于股价操纵行为，但却有利于确保证券市场股票价格的稳定，也有利于增强市场的流动性。中国相关的证券法规虽然都禁止股价操纵行为，但都未涉及承销商托市问题，使承销商托市客观上成为“有实无名”的行为。通过对承销商托市的理论分析和实务操作分析，论证了其存在的必要性和危害性。并探求托市与操纵市场的本质区别，为托市的合法化奠定基础，借以规范托市行为，扬长避短。     

我国新股发行存在的问题及对策研究

我国股市自建立以来，由于新股发行机制不合理，新股发行过程中存在着资金囤积，价格波动较大，投机因素较重等等问题和缺陷，难以适应证券市场的健康发展，因此，对于我国新股发行制度的改革，比如适当限制新股发行市盈率等有着十分重要的作用。     

从上市成本看新股定价

新股定价是上市公司和承销商共同讨论达成一致的结果。如果将上市公司作为商品,那么根据等价交换原则,新股的价格应当真实地反映上市公司的价值。然而,事实并非如此,全球股市普遍存在新股定价偏低的现象。对于这一点,经济学家们也做出了许多研究,包括承销商风险假说、信息不对称假说、法律责任风险假说、投机泡沫假说、买方垄断假说等等。这些假说都从不同的角度对新股定价偏低做出了解释,但任何单一假说都没有做出完全的解释。本文笔者尝试从上市成本的角度来解释新股定价偏低的问题。     

新股发行制度研究

伴随着股市的不断扩容和二级市场持续低迷,新股发行制度存在的问题日益突出,制约了金融市场的稳定发展。文章从我国新股发行制度的历史沿革剖析出发,指出现行新股发行体制中存在的问题,并从新股定价、配售机制、配套制度建设等方面提出相应对策。     

一级市场有效性与均衡分析

文章针对有关部门出台的一级市场取消额度控制和上市指标 ,新股定价由市场决定这一新的措施 ,从影响一级市场效率的几个方面分析 ,指出了执行新的措施后 ,市场运行更为有效。同时 ,作为中介机构承销商 ,必须进一步深化职能。另外 ,股权结构的复杂设置仍将一定程度上给新股的准确定价带来困难     

新股上市首日定价及上市后合理定价模型介绍

新股上市定价受多种因素的影响，既包括可以量化的因素，也包括无法量化的因素。我们在确定新股上市首日定价及上市后合理定价时，需要把定性分析和定量分析结合起来综合考虑,建立回归模型，以得到拟合度相对较好的模型。笔者根据不同的使用用途，给出了三类新股定价模型，籍此可对新股上市首日定价和上市后的合理定价进行预测。     

Futures markets,private storage,and price stabilization

This paper considers several issues pertaining to the role of an efficient futures market for price stabilization. The main aspect which is emphasized is the provision of information by such a market. It provides efficient forecasts which facilitates both production and storage decisions, as a result of which the stability of spot prices is generally increased. The allocation of the benefits from a futures market to the various groups in the economy is discussed andthe present results related to those of the more traditional buffer stock literature. Finally, the degree of stability provided by a futures market is compared with that obtained by active market intervention by a stabilization authority.     

A stochastic control approach to buffer stock management in the Taiwan rice market

Buffer stock management of agricultural commodities is an intertemporal optimization problem under uncertainty. Stochastic optimal control techniques are presented as a means of solving this problem and then applied to the problem of farmer income support and price stabilization of the rice market in Taiwan. Deterministic results show that the price variation of a free market solution can be substantially reduced with little favoring of one group over another. Operation of a buffer stock under supply uncertainty is shown to generate greater variability in consumer expenditures and producer income than a free market solution.     

Risk in supply response: an econometric application

The impact of risk aversion on supply response is empirically estimated for selected field crops in California. As indicators of risk aversion the following surrogate variables are used: variance of past prices and yields, adjusted price to reflect the role of government support price over the market price and the dummy variables indicating price expectations. In general, the econometric estimates show a negative impact of risk aversion measured by the surrogate variables and this has implications for welfare gains resulting from price support policies aimed at stabilization.     

Optimal interest rate rule in a DSGE model with housing market spillovers

This paper studies the optimal interest rate rule in a DSGE model with housing market spillovers (Iacoviello and Neri, 2010). We find that the optimal rule responds to house price inflation even when the stabilization of house price is not among the objectives of the policymaker, and that the strength of the response depends crucially on a few structural parameters.     

Evidence on the contrarian trading in foreign exchange markets

This paper investigates the existence and price impacts of contrarian behavior in the foreign exchange markets. By utilizing a nonlinear behavioral model where the chartists and fundamentalists coexist, evidence obtained from two sample periods significantly supports the existence of contrarian trading in the British pound, the Japanese yen and the German mark markets. The contrarian trading can only partially offset the price impacts of trend-followers, therefore the price impact of the chartists as a whole is destabilizing. The ability that the contrarians can counterbalance the extrapolation of the trend-followers differs across markets. Traders in the BP market have the highest tendency to contrarian strategy, which in turn contributes to the least deviations of the BP exchange rates departing from its PPP fundamentals. The fundamentalists' confidence in trade fades during large misalignments, which make the mean reversion function of the fundamentalists weak under the circumstances. We find the magnitudes of interventions will be affected by the price impacts of contrarians and their abilities on market stabilization.     

THE SWEDISH MARKET PRICE APPROACH TO MONETARY POLICY OF THE 1930s

Recently, some analysts have prescribed the combined use of certain market prices as a useful strategy for monetary policy. In light of problems with conventional (time-series) empirical tests of the approach, one may consider an alternative "test" of this strategy: examining historical episodes when the strategy was employed. The Swedish experience during the early 1930s provides one such example. This experience, fathered by Knut Wicksell, is an example of a fiat money-flexible exchange rate regime in which (i) a short-term interest rate was used as a policy instrument, (ii) market prices were used as policy guides or intermediate indicators, and (Hi) price stability was the explicitly voiced goal of monetary policy. Monetary or reserve aggregates were neither proposed nor employed as policy guides or targets in pursuing this price stabilization objective. This Swedish experience is important since it provides a rare example of a market price approach to monetary policy. This paper demonstrates that the approach worked remarkably well.     

The model and empirical estimation of the optimal flexibility of RMB exchange-rate regime: A study based on the price-stabilization

Under the Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch (M-F-D) framework, the paper develops a stochastic model to study the optimal choice of RMB exchange rate regime based on two objectives, namely the exchange rate stabilization and price stabilization. The paper finds that different policy objectives will lead to different optimal choices of RMB exchange-rate regime. If the central bank aims to stabilize the price level, the optimal choice would be a certain type of intermediate regime, or the optimal choice would be a fixed one if it aims to stabilize the RMB exchange rate. Based on the model, the paper empirically estimates China’s open economy parameters and uses them to estimate the optimal flexibility of RMB exchange rate regime. The paper points out that China should allow more exchange rate changes to absorb its foreign exchange market pressure in order to stabilize the general price level, which indicates that China should move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime.     

THE SWEDISH MARKET PRICE APPROACH TO MONETARY POLICY OF THE 1930s

Recently, some analysts have prescribed the combined use of certain market prices as a useful strategy for monetary policy. In light of problems with conventional (time-series) empirical tests of the approach, one may consider an alternative "test" of this strategy: examining historical episodes when the strategy was employed. The Swedish experience during the early 1930s provides one such example. This experience, fathered by Knut Wicksell, is an example of a fiat money-flexible exchange rate regime in which (i) a short-term interest rate was used as a policy instrument, (ii) market prices were used as policy guides or intermediate indicators, and (Hi) price stability was the explicitly voiced goal of monetary policy. Monetary or reserve aggregates were neither proposed nor employed as policy guides or targets in pursuing this price stabilization objective. This Swedish experience is important since it provides a rare example of a market price approach to monetary policy. This paper demonstrates that the approach worked remarkably well.     

Futures markets,price stabilization and efficient exploitation of exhaustible resources

Markets for natural resource futures contracts and cash forward contracts experience a rapid growth. According to theory, this should result in more efficient resource depletion, implying that price formation is more consistent with Hotelling's rule. The rationale of this stabilization effect is briefly discussed. Next, we analyze the impact of expanding futures markets on the behaviour of individual resource owners trading on the cash market. Using a simple pulse extraction model, we demonstrate that the expected time of depletion can shift to the present or the future, and that utility of exploitation can go up or down, as market prices are stabilized.     

Dynamic behavior of product and stock markets with a varying degree of interaction

We develop a macroeconomic behavioral model in order to analyze the interactions between product and financial markets. The real subsystem is represented by a simple Keynesian income–expenditure model, while the financial subsystem is represented by an equilibrium stock market with heterogeneous speculators, i.e., chartists and fundamentalists. The interactions between the two markets are modeled in the following way: the aggregate demand depends, among other variables, also on the stock market price, while the fundamental value used by speculators in their decisional process depends on the real sector economic conditions. In our model we introduce a parameter that represents the degree of interaction. With the aid of analytical and numerical tools we show that an increasing degree of interaction between markets tends to locally stabilize the system. This stabilization occurs via a sequence of period-halving bifurcations. Globally, we find that the stabilization process implies multistability, i.e., the coexistence of different kinds of attractors.