Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates

We estimate a structural term-structure model of U.S. real rates, where arbitrageurs accommodate demand pressures exerted by domestic and foreign official investors. Official demand affects rates by altering the aggregate price of duration risk, and thereby bond risk premiums. Although foreign central banks' demand contributed to reduce long-term real rates mainly in the years prior to the global-financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's demand lowered rates during the quantitative easing period. Overall, the two-factor model, augmented to account for changing liquidity conditions, offers a good representation of real rates during the 2001–16 period; however, we flag some caveats and possible extensions.     

Dividends and financial health: Evidence from U.S. bank holding companies

Using a large sample of U.S. bank holding companies from 1986 to 2020, we show that there is a positive relationship between banks' dividends lagged by one quarter and their financial health in the current quarter. We also find that this positive relationship is more pronounced for banks with lower capital adequacy and during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, indicating that it is more necessary for banks with these characteristics to use dividends to convey information regarding their financial health. Our additional analyses suggest that total payout is also positively associated with bank financial health, and that the positive relationship between dividends and financial health applies to private banks as well, but that the magnitude is weaker for them than for public banks. Our overall findings primarily complement a risk reduction hypothesis in corporate finance and bank payout policies.     

Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Treasury yields

Foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased from $400 billion in January 1994 to about $3 trillion in June 2010. Most of this growth is accounted for by a handful of emerging market economies that have been running large current account surpluses. These countries are channeling their savings through the official sector, which is then acquiring foreign exchange reserves. Any shift in policy to reduce their current account surpluses or dampen the rate of reserves accumulation would likely slow the pace of foreign official purchases of U.S. Treasuries. Would such a slowing of foreign official purchases of Treasury notes and bonds affect long-term Treasury yields? Most likely yes, and the effects appear to be large. By our estimates, if foreign official inflows into U.S. Treasuries were to decrease in a given month by $100 billion, 5-year Treasury rates would rise by about 40–60 basis points in the short run. But once we allow foreign private investors to react to the yield change induced by the shock to foreign official inflows, the long-run effect is about 20 basis points.     

U.S. tax policy and health insurance demand: Can a regressive policy improve welfare?

The U.S. tax policy on health insurance is regressive because it subsidizes only those offered group insurance through their employers, who also tend to have a relatively high income. Moreover, the subsidy takes the form of deductions from the progressive income tax system giving high income earners a larger subsidy. To understand the effect of the policy, we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogenous agents and an endogenous demand for health insurance. A complete removal of the subsidy may lead to a partial collapse of the group insurance market, reduce the insurance coverage and deteriorate welfare. There is, however, room for improving the coverage and welfare by extending a refundable credit to the individual insurance market.     

赴美IPO：热潮再起

2014年6月11日下午,美国堪萨斯城一个私人机场候机厅内,43岁的智联招聘CFO郭健民和他的路演团队正在与远在万里之外的墨尔本大股东召开电话会议。这日,这家目前中国最大的网络招聘平台要在这个机场里完成首次公开募股（IPO）的股票定价和股票配售工作,以为第二天智联正式登陆纽交所作准备。     

Foreign bank lending in the U.S. during three U.S. recessions

We study whether foreign banks engaged in countercyclical lending in the United States during the 1990–1991, 2001, and 2007–2009 recessions. Aggregate lending by foreign banks increased in the 1990–91 recession and by domestic banks in the 2001 recession. Controlling for local GDP and unemployment, we show countercyclical lending by foreign branches in the 1990 recession and by foreign subsidiaries in the 2001 recession. In the 2008 recession, foreign branches and subsidiaries exhibited neither countercyclical nor procyclical lending. We conclude that foreign banks like domestic banks respond to local economic conditions; the foreign ownership is not a factor.     

美国市场形势好转

<正>美国劳工节过后,飓风给美国市场造成的沉闷 气氛似乎缓和。原油和汽油价格有所回落、股市强劲 上涨、灾区部分炼油厂即将恢复生产。但美国专家警 告说,能源市场的不确定因素仍然很多,油价上行的 可能依然大于下降。     

Relevance of U.S.-GAAP for Japanese companies

We use differences in U.S.-GAAP and Japanese-GAAP accounting measures to evaluate the value-relevance of U.S.-GAAP reports. We show data provided in U.S.-GAAP financial statements of Japanese firms is value-relevant beyond that contained in domestic-GAAP statements. Our results complement extant research and support the proposition that U.S. reporting methods provide value-relevant data. Understanding the value-relevance of data from Japanese firms is important in its own right because of the major role these firms play in intenational markets. We also provide evidence on significant transnational firms that voluntarily provide U.S.-GAAP statements.     

An Empirical Study of the Consequences of U.S. Tax Rules for International Acquisitions by U.S. Firms

This article examines the effect of tax factors on the equity values of U.S. multinational corporations making foreign acquisitions. Abnormal stock returns are found to be related to a tax variable that captures differences in the international tax status of acquiring firms but not related to a naive tax variable that captures differences between tax rates in target countries and the United States. Our evidence suggests that aggregate intercountry differentials in after-tax returns are competed away, while firm-specific, tax-related advantages (or disadvantages) are reflected in abnormal returns around the announcement date of the acquisition.     

Do foreign purchases of U.S. stocks help the U.S. stock market?

This paper investigates the relationship between the U.S. S&P 500 stock market and purchases of U.S. corporation stocks by foreign investors. Estimations using monthly data from 1978:1 to 2008:7 under various methodologies show that, controlling for asset prices (interest rates and the yield curve) and inflation, purchases of U.S. stocks by foreign investors have a positive and statistically significant impact on the U.S. stock market performance. We also show that their relationship is time variant. In a global world, the demand-side variable captured by the foreign appetite for U.S. stocks attenuates the negative effects associated with the domestic forces.     

U.S. International Equity Investment

Using a comprehensive data set of all U.S. investment in foreign equities, we find that the single most important determinant of the amount of U.S. investment a foreign firm receives is whether the firm cross‐lists on a U.S. exchange. Correcting for selection biases, cross‐listing leads to a doubling (or more) in U.S. investment, an impact greater than all other factors combined. Much of this increased U.S. investment is purchased in the foreign market, implying that the cross‐listing effect reflects something more fundamental about a firm than easier acquisition of its securities. We also demonstrate that cross‐listing is an important determinant of U.S. international investment at the country level and describe easy‐to‐implement methods for including a cross‐listing variable as an endogenous control.     

The U.S. listing gap

Relative to other countries, the U.S. now has abnormally few listed firms. This “U.S. listing gap” is consistent with a decrease in the net benefit of a listing for U.S. firms. Since the listing peak in 1996, the propensity to be listed is lower for all firm size categories and industries, the new list rate is low, and the delist rate is high. The high delist rate accounts for 46% of the listing gap and the low new list rate for 54%. The high delist rate is explained by an unusually high rate of acquisitions of publicly listed firms.     

小企业:美银行的新宠

如果说目前存在着对小企业的信贷紧缩,或者说银行在此业务上的竞争程度降低了,那绝不会是真的,尤其在那些大银行里."我不那么认为,"PNC(美国一个大金融财团-译者注)的CEO琼·古丽(Joan Gulley)说,"虽然存在紧缩开支的现象,但就整个环境来说还是充满竞争的."     

美元:霸权末路?

是谁,打开了潘多拉之盒 同第一季度相比,美国第二季度公布的经济数据虽也是好坏参半,并不乏重大利好,但此一时彼一时,市场的反映却有天壤之别,究其根本,则在于市场信心的转变.     

Toward a National Market System for U.S. Exchange–listed Equity Options

In its response to the 1975 Congressional mandate to implement a national market system for financial securities, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) initially exempted the option market. Recent dramatic changes in the structure of the option market prompted the SEC to revisit this issue. We examine a sample of actively traded, multiply listed equity options to ask whether this market's characteristics appear consistent with the goals of producing economically efficient transactions and facilitating “best execution.” We find marked changes between June 2000, when quotes are often ignored, and January 2002, when the market more closely resembles a national market.