Business Survival and the Decision to Exit

The decision to exit is examined for a cohort of over 12,000 plants established in 1976. Using a longitudinal data base, the performance of the establishments is analysed over the subsequent 10 years. The empirical evidence suggests that start-up size, ownership status, and the industry environment affect the likelihood of a start -up subsequently exiting. Plants with more employees during the start -up year are found to have a lower likelihood of exit than do smaller plants. Similarly, establishnwnts which are independent are found to have a lower likelihood of exit within the following years than do newly created establishments belonging to a multi-plant firm. However, the determinants of exit apparently vary along with the age of the establishment. Innovative activity is found to raise the likelihood of establishment exit in the short run but lower it in the longer run.     

Ownership and technical efficiency in Malaysia's automotive industry: A stochastic frontier production function analysis

This article examines the direct effect of the extent of foreign ownership on technical efficiency in Malaysia's automotive industry by applying a stochastic frontier production function analysis to micro-panel data over the years 2000–2004. Technical efficiency in the overall automotive industry is positively related to the degree of vertical integration, the size of establishments in the respective sub-sectors, a higher quality of the work force, and a higher foreign ownership share in the establishment combined with higher net-import intensity. Foreign ownership and net-export intensity are not significant determinants of technical efficiency inthe parts sub-sector. Although majority foreign ownership is not allowed in the assembly sub-sector, this sub-sector is large, with asmall number of establishments generating scale economies in the automotive industry. The determinants of technical efficiency in the parts sub-sector show that foreign ownership per se does not enhance technical efficiency since other determinants like the degree of vertical integration and the size of establishments are significant determinants of technical efficiency.     

Passive Firm Learning and Employment Projection Error

This paper analyzes establishment error in estimating employment targets in business startups and expansions. Passive firm learning models provide a testable hypothesis that, other things being equal, old establishments more accurately predict future employment targets than young businesses. Empirical evidence from 442 Ohio establishments implies that an increase of ten years in establishment age is associated with a decrease in employment projection error rate of between 11 and 13 percentage points.     

Trade Liberalisation,Exit, and Output and Employment Adjustments of Australian Manufacturing Establishments

This paper investigates three potential sources of Australia’s manufacturing productivity gains from trade liberalisation in the mid‐1990s: the exit of inefficient establishments, economies of scale, and the reduction in x‐inefficiency via employment reduction. We use manufacturing establishment level data and exploit the intersectoral variation in the effective rates of assistance (ERA) to see how businesses adjusted to trade liberalisation during the period. We find the documented productivity gains to be mostly accounted for by the reduction in x‐inefficiency through employment shedding in industries experiencing a high degree of trade liberalisation. We find little evidence that the exit of inefficient establishments in highly liberalised industries contributes to productivity gains. In fact, we find that the more productive establishments are more likely to exit, perhaps reflecting product switching by these businesses to make more profitable use of inputs. Similarly, there does not appear to be a strong relationship between the extent of trade liberalisation and output adjustments. However, we do find indicative evidence of an overall productivity‐enhancing effect through economies of scale. These findings suggest that, at least for the case of Australia, the ease of making employment adjustments can be crucial for policies such as trade liberalisation to have the desired effect. In addition, trade liberalisation may provide incentives for domestic producers to seek more profitable use of their inputs and to move further downward along their cost curves. We think further studies assessing the productivity gains from product switching and economies of scale effects in both liberalised and non‐liberalised industries and focusing on the interplay between labour market policy and firm adjustments would be valuable.     

Job Flows and Job Quality by Establishment Size in the Finnish Manufacturing Sector 1980–94

This paper studies how employment patterns and growth vary with establishment size in the Finnish manufacturing sector during the period 1980–94. The findings are compared with the predictions of alternative theories of firm growth. The paper also examines some aspects of job quality in different size categories, including wages, labour productivity, working hours, labour turnover and the persistence of jobs. According to the findings, small establishments create and destroy jobs relatively more than large establishments. In addition, in the smallest size categories both the share of gross job creation and the share of gross job destruction is larger than the share of employment. However, there is no clear relationship between establishment size and net employment change. Furthermore, after studying different aspects of job quality, we can conclude that the jobs offered by small and large establishments differ greatly in many respects and it is difficult to evaluate the total welfare effect.     

Accounting for Net Entry into Greek Manufacturing by Establishments of Varying Size

Adopting the view that size matters in understanding entry (exit) patterns, this research explores the nature and causes of net entry patterns of various size-defined groups of establishments in the case of a less industrialised country – Greece. The hypothesis to be tested is that the determinants of entry are not independent of firm size. Throughout this paper the analysis has had to confront difficulties arising from the use of net entry rates defined at the size class level. The degree of size disaggregation used in this paper is considerably finer than used before. Five employment-defined size classes have been used instead of sliding cut-off points discriminating between small and large firms. Unlike other research using pooled models to explain variation in entry (exit) rates across industries, the data used here are characterised by the absence of significant industry-specific systematic variation. Overall, the results obtained in this paper indicate that there is a gradation in the responses of different size classes to stimuli defined at the industry level. Evidence is offered that small firms are different in that they manage to overcome entry barriers, perhaps adopting different survival strategies, and that large firms are well aware of market conditions and are in an advantageous position to overcome many of the problems imposed by entry barriers. Size classes in the middle of the size class distribution offer a rather mixed result due to size-related advantages and disadvantages.     

Do Newly Founded Firms Pay Lower Wages? First Evidence from Germany

Using a linked employer–employee data set for Germany, this paper analyses wage setting in a cohort of newly founded and other establishments from 1997 to 2001. While theory provides alternative explanations for higher or lower wages in newly founded firms, we show empirically that start-ups tend to pay lower wages, ceteris paribus. On average, wages in newly founded establishments are 8% lower than in similar incumbent firms. This negative wage differential is substantially smaller in eastern than in western Germany. The wage differential is shown to decline over time as the newly founded firms become more mature.     

Survival of Newly Founded Businesses: A Log-Logistic Model Approach

Based on a longitudinal database we test the "liability of adolescence" hypothesis which states that new firm hazard rates follow an inverted U-shaped pattern. That is, the hazard rate is low for the initial period; the end of adolescence is marked by a hazard maximum, from which the rate declines monotonically. We use a log-logistic model which shows that the "liability of adolescence" argument describes the hazard rates of new establishments for all two and three-digit industries fairly well. Further, the rate shows that the desegregation of industries matters, and considerable differences are found within and across two and three-digit low-, moderate- and high-tech industries. In assessing the effect of market environment conditions on risk we find that risk to be elevated in a relatively large number of two-digit low- and high-tech industries in the presence of scale economies, but it is substantially reduced in moderate-tech industries. By contrast, the hazard rate tends to be reduced for quite a large number of three-digit low-, moderate- and high-tech industries in comparison with the two-digit industries, indicating a longer adolescence. The influence of start-up size in reducing the hazard rate is apparently similar between two and three digit low-, moderate- and high-tech industries. The impact of market growth on the risk of failure is not much different for both two and three-digit low-, moderate- and high-tech industries.     

Firm exit after distress: differentiating between bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation and M&A

This paper examines firm-level determinants of mature firm exits after economic distress. Using nested logit models and a sample of 6,118 distress-related exits in Belgium, we analyze the type of exit that distressed firms experience. We show that 41% of the firms in our sample exit through a court driven exit procedure (mainly bankruptcy), 44% are voluntarily liquidated and 14% are acquired, merged or split (hereafter M&A). Distressed firm exit follows two distinct stages. First, a firm either decides to exit voluntarily or is forced into bankruptcy, which is the least efficient exit strategy. Compared to bankruptcy, the probability of a voluntary exit increases with higher levels of cash, lower leverage, holding no secured debt and being embedded in a group. If a firm exits voluntarily, it enters a second stage and decides either to exit through voluntary liquidation or through a M&A. Conditional on not going bankrupt, the likelihood of voluntary liquidation compared to M&A increases with higher levels of cash or secured debt, with smaller size and with an absence of group relations. We contribute to the firm exit literature by jointly analyzing three exit types and showing that bankruptcy and voluntary liquidation are fundamentally different exit routes. While voluntary liquidation is an important exit route for distressed firms, most previous studies have failed to distinguish between bankruptcy and liquidation. We hence contribute to the exit literature by showing that bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation and M&A are fundamentally distinct exit routes for distressed firms, driven by different firm level characteristics and following a two-stage process.     

As the market churns: productivity and firm exit in developing countries

This paper uses a unique dataset from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys in 47 economies to analyze the conditions under which firms leave heterogeneous markets. Consistent with expectations, we show that firm productivity (and age) are significant determinants of firm exit. Cross-country analysis shows, however, that the relationship between productivity as well as age and exit is mitigated by some country-level factors. In particular, we show either’s effect is substantially weakened in low-income economies, economies with limited openness to international trade, and in economies with cumbersome bankruptcy procedures. To address issues of sample attrition and selection bias presented by survey-based estimates, corrections are applied using information when a firm’s operating status is uncertain. The expected negative relationship between firm labor productivity and the likelihood of exit is robust to these corrections, as is the negative relationship between firm exit and age.     

Survival patterns among newcomers to franchising

This study examines survival patterns among franchisee and nonfranchise small firms and establishments that entered business during 1986 and 1987. Aspiring entrepreneurs purchasing franchises choose this path to small business entry, in part, because they expect to improve their chances of survival during the turbulent early years of operation. Evidence to date has been mixed: some studies conclude that franchising is a low-risk route to small business ownership, while others suggest that independent start-ups are more likely to remain in operation than franchises.This study utilizes two distinct methodological approaches to investigate franchisee survival patterns. The first approach demonstrates that franchise units have better survival prospects than independents, and the second approach demonstrates that young firms formed without the benefit of a franchisor parent are more likely to remain in operation than franchised start-ups. Reconciliation of these seemingly inconsistent findings is explored.Survival measurement is heavily influenced by the unit of analysis in franchising. Firm-specific data show different patterns than establishment-specific data when young franchise units are tracked through time. Analysis of establishments owned by corporations is undertaken for restaurants opened nationwide in 1986 and 1987. Using Census Bureau data describing corporate-owned restaurant establishments that reported payroll to the IRS in 1987, 52,088 young establishments were identified; 22.5% were franchises. Comparison of the franchisee and independent restaurant units indicated that independents were more likely to cease operations by 1988 than franchises.The fact that franchisee establishments had a better survival track record than independent restaurants does not, however, demonstrate that aspiring entrepreneurs improve their survival prospects by purchasing a franchise. In fact, 84% of the new franchise establishments under consideration were units of multi-establishment corporations, and few of these corporate parents were new businesses. Envision a corporation in operation for 15 years that owns 20 McDonalds restaurants; in 1987 they opened their twenty-first unit. The findings of this study indicate that this twenty-first unit has excellent survival prospects, more so than either an independent start-up or a franchisee opening a restaurant for the first time. New franchised restaurant units, overall, may be a safe investment, although simultaneously, the newcomer opening a franchise may face a high-risk situation.The analysis then shifts from establishments owned by franchisees to young firms (not establishments) started in 1986 and 1987 as proprietorships, partnerships, or S-corporations. Among these young firms, franchisees are found to have lower survival rates than independent start-ups, and these differences persist when various firm and owner traits are controlled for statistically. Retailing is found to be a particularly difficult field for young franchised firms: risk of firm closure is high and mean profits are negative. The most common route into retailing entailed purchasing an operating franchise unit from its previous owner, that is, an ongoing franchise. Over 53% of the young franchised retailing firms started in 1986 and 1987 were ongoing operations. By 1991, only 52.4% of these firms were still operating with the owner of record present in 1987.The findings of this study indicate, on balance, that purchase of a franchise is unlikely to reduce the risks facing a new business start-up. This does not imply that the multi-establishment franchisee adding another new franchise unit to its existing chain of operations faces a high-risk situation. Rather, the high risk facing the franchisee newcomer is partially rooted in the fact that so many of the newly-opened units in mature franchising niches are owned by multi-unit franchisees that have greater experience and resources than newcomers who are attempting to enter the industry.     

The Demography of Business Closings

This study shows that establishment dissolution declines with age and that age at dissolution differs for broad industry and geography groups, establishment affiliation status, and establishment size. These findings, largely confirming results presented elsewhere, are drawn from age-specific dissolution ratios and establishment life tables calculated for select establishment sub-populations. The paper uses Bureau of the Census Standard Statistical Establishment List datasets, a census of establishments with employment for the United States for the 1987 and 1988 years.     

Workers’ participation in regional economic change following establishment closure

This article analyses if and when workers affected by economic destruction in the form of establishment closures move to more productive or newly started establishments in the region, become self-employed, leave the region or become displaced. Results from multinominal probit models show that the majority of these workers face destructive employment outcomes from a Schumpeterian point of view compared to a matched sample of workers not subject to a closure. However, we do find indications of a creative destruction as a small, albeit significant, share become employed in young establishments. Different types of human capital influence the likelihood of triggering positive or negative regional outcomes. While higher education significantly decreases the risk for unemployment, high-income earners more often become engaged in creative outcomes. Firm tenure increases the likelihood of becoming employed in younger establishments. There are significant spatial differences where metropolitan regions excel as loci of creative change, whereas smaller and peripheral regions face far less creative outcomes of economic transformation.

     

Ecological dynamics of industrial organizations in South Korea

By utilizing the ecological perspective, this study examines ecological dynamics of industrial organizations in the manufacturing sector of the Korean economy over the period between 1950 and 1990. First, this study investigates how a population of manufacturing establishments grew in size across different age cohorts. The investigation of the age structure of a population of manufacturing establishments shows that the overall growth trajectory follows, by and large, a pattern of dominance of large-scale production units. It also shows that expansion of existing manufacturing establishments rather than entry of new ones has been the significant contributing factor in accounting for the growth of industry. Second, this study examines how certain cohorts of organizations survived over time and how they differentially died out in the face of rapid environmental change. The examination of the underlying population volatility of manufacturing establishments shows that the net mortality rates of different birth cohorts decrease with age. However, during the periods of economic recession and political turmoil, old cohorts have higher net mortality rates than younger ones, indicating their vulnerability toward profound institutional realignments as well as their heavy reliance on political networks. This finding indicates that the liability of newness thesis should be applied with caution.     

Returns to Scale in Small and Large U.S. Manufacturing Establishments: Further Evidence

Nguyen and Reznek (1991) used plant-level data for five 4-digit SIC industries to estimate and compare the degrees of returns-to-scale for establishments of various size classes for the years 1977 and 1982. They found that the estimated scale elasticities of all plant sizes have values approximately equal to one. They, therefore, concluded that both small and large establishments under study are equally efficient in production. The purpose of the present study is to extend and improve upon Nguyen and Reznek's work by (1) extending the data set to cover the entire U.S. manufacturing sector, (2) improving the model by including energy as a separate input in production, and (3) relaxing the assumption of homogeneity and estimating an unrestricted (non-homogeneous, non-homothetic) production model. With the improved model and data, it is found that the estimated scale elasticities for all sizes of establishment are statistically insignificantly different from one. Thus, the result confirms and strengthens Nguyen and Reznek's finding that a large establishment size is not a necessary condition for efficient production.     

Infrastructure investments and entrepreneurial dynamism in the U.S.

Investments in physical infrastructure induce environmental changes that serve both an enabling and disabling function, potentially acting to simultaneously stimulate new business establishment and provoke exit by some incumbent establishments. The opening of a new establishment results in the creation of jobs that did not previously exist. Similarly, the closing of an establishment results in the permanent loss of jobs. I develop a theoretical model that depicts this external enabler/disabler process and test the model's predictions empirically tested using annual state-level data spanning the period 1993–2015. The results from dynamic panel system GMM estimation suggest that public and private infrastructure investments exert opposite effects on dynamism. Whereas private infrastructure investment is positively and significantly associated with the creation of businesses and jobs, public infrastructure investments are associated with the destruction of businesses and jobs. These results point to private infrastructure investment serving primarily an entrepreneurial enabler role and public infrastructure investment an entrepreneurial disabler role.     

The Survival and Growth of New Establishments in Sweden, 1987-1995

The aim of the study is to examine the survival of new establishments and to identify factors affecting their survival probability and their employment growth.This study uses a unique data set on all new establishments that were created in Sweden 1987 and 1988, with the exception of the construction industry. The results show among others that:(i) new establishments face a high risk of closing down, (ii) the probability of establishment survival increases with the age and size of the establishment,(iii) variables that are assumed to measure access to resources (being a part of a multi-unit firm,and being new due to merger or dispersal) have a positive effect on survival, (iv) the number of employees at the start- up year has a negative effect on the employment growth, and (v) demographic and educational factors are important in explaining survival and growth.     

The role of employees for post-entry firm growth

While the majority of existing studies on the determinants of post-entry firm growth focus on the role of the founders or on the impact of firm-specific characteristics, possible effects of the characteristics of a start-up’s workforce have been widely neglected to date. In this paper we examine the role of initial worker and job characteristics (e.g., qualification, age, workload, marginal employment) of start-ups for their post‐entry employment growth. The analyses are based upon a capacious panel dataset comprising a representative 50 % sample of establishments in Germany. Our empirical results show that, inter alia, high-skilled and young workers are conducive to growth in terms of both the number of employees and full-time equivalents. With respect to flexible work forms, however, establishments using part-time employment show higher post‐entry growth only in terms of total hours worked, but a significantly lower growth with respect to the number of employees.     

Entrepreneurial Survival

This paper gives an empirical analysis of determinants of new-firm survival in the manufacturing sector of Baden-Wuerttemberg (Germany) from 1981 to 1994. The analysis focuses on firm- and industry-specific determinants of new-firm survival. A possible effect of regional agglomeration and of the business cycle is also tested, albeit in a very general manner. From a methodical point of view parametric and semiparametric duration models are used. Grouped duration models are estimated taking into account the problem of ties. Moreover, the problem of unobserved heterogeneity is considered which has so far been neglected in numerous studies. The empirical analyses show with respect to industry-specific effects that the risk of new-firm failure is the larger the larger an industry’ s minimum efficient scale is, the worse the sectoral demand-conditions are, the more narrow the market is, the higher dynamics of foundation within an industry are. The liability of smallness-hypothesis is confirmed for German manufacturing while with respect to firm age the results favour the liability of adolescence-hypothesis instead of a pure liability of newness.     

Employment generation by small producers in the Canadian manufacturing sector

This paper uses job turnover data to compare how job creation, job destruction and net job change differ for small and large establishments in the Canadian manufacturing sector. It uses several different techniques to correct for the regression-to-the-mean problem that, it has been suggested, might incorrectly lead to the conclusion that small establishments create a disproportionate number of new jobs. It finds that net job creation for smaller establishments is greater than that of large establishments after such changes are made. The paper also compares the importance of small and large establishments in the manufacturing sectors of Canada and the United States. The Canadian manufacturing sector is shown to have both a larger proportion of employment in smaller establishments but also to have a small establishment sector that is growing in importance relative to that of the United States.