REIT Risk Premium Sensitivity and Interest Rates

This analysis investigates several aspects of the relationship between daily REIT stock risk premiums and various interest rates. Consistent with prior research, the general findings indicate that interest rates do impact REIT returns. This study specifically finds that stock returns are more sensitive to maturity rate spread between short- and long-term treasuries than the credit rate spread between commercial bonds and treasuries. In addition, the analyses document a structural model shift during the nineties that has made REITs more sensitive to credit risk. In additional to change in investor clientele, an analysis of declining REIT credit-worthiness points to a root cause for this shift.     

REIT Momentum and Characteristic-Related REIT Returns

Recent evidence confirms that in factor-model examinations of the cross-section of REIT returns, REIT momentum emerges as the dominant driver. Acknowledging the importance of momentum, the current study explores whether and how REIT return patterns are linked to the underlying characteristics of the REITs themselves, in the manner of Daniel and Titman’s (Journal of Finance 52(1):1–33, 1997, Journal of Portfolio Management 24(4):24–33, 1998) characteristics model. Over the period 1993 through 2009, we find that after controlling for momentum, book-to-market, institutional ownership, and illiquidity are all strongly associated with REIT returns while size and analyst coverage are not. We further extend prior research by examining the influence of changes in interest rate cycles on REIT returns, and find that the characteristic-return relationships are heavily influenced by interest rates.     

REIT Characteristics and the Sensitivity of REIT Returns

Previous research on the returns to real estate investment trusts (REITs) has considered whether REITs are systematically exposed to general stock-market risk and interest-rate risk. This study examines how the sensitivity of REIT returns to these factors may be influenced by various REIT characteristics. Using a sample of publicly traded REITs, we estimate the sensitivity of REIT returns to stock market and interest-rate changes. We then propose and implement a model for testing whether differences in asset structure, financial leverage, management strategy, and degree of specialization in the REIT portfolios are related to their sensitivity to interest rate and market risk. Our results permit us to offer some inferences about how REITs can alter their risk exposure by managing these characteristics.     

Dedicated REIT Mutual Fund Flows and REIT Performance

This study examines the effects of weekly and monthly capital flows into the dedicated REIT mutual fund sector on aggregate REIT returns and, simultaneously, the effects of industry-level REIT returns on subsequent REIT mutual fund flows. The dynamic relation between REIT capital flows and returns is estimated using vector autoregression (VAR) techniques. Unlike static regression techniques, our dynamic model produces estimates of the short-run relationships, long-run relationships, impulse response functions, and forecast variance decompositions. We find evidence that REIT mutual fund flows are positively and significantly related to prior returns, while prior REIT mutual fund flows do not significantly influence REIT returns. However, contemporaneous flows do appear to have an initial positive effect, which is partially reversed one period later. The positive contemporaneous effect, however, is the result of unexpected REIT mutual fund flows, while the expected portion is insignificant.     

Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia

This paper applies stochastic discount factor methodology to modeling the foreign exchange risk premium in Armenia. We use weekly data on foreign and domestic currency deposits, which coexist in the Armenian banking system. This coexistence implies elimination of the cross-country risks and transaction costs, leaving the pure foreign exchange risk. It is shown that there exists a systematic time-varying risk premium that increases with maturity. Using two-currency affine term structure and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-in-mean models, we find that the central bank's foreign exchange market interventions and ratio-of-deposit volumes significantly affect public expectations about foreign exchange fluctuations. We also find that the foreign exchange risk premium accounts for the largest part of the interest differential. When accounting for economic and institutional differences, our results can be extended to other countries.     

Investor Sentiment and REIT Returns

Recent advances in the field of behavioral finance have given a fillip to the use of behavioral factors in asset pricing models. This study adds to the understanding of the REIT return generating process by exploring the behavioral impact of investor sentiment on REIT returns. The results show that when investors are optimistic (pessimistic), REIT returns become higher (lower). These findings are robust when conventional control variables are considered. Empirical analysis indicates steady erosion in the importance of the default and term structure interest rate variables previously considered as important determinants of REIT returns. Previous noise trading papers that consider the impact of institutional traders conclude that institutional investors cannot arbitrage away noise trader risk. The results of this paper find an exception in the case of small REITs. Examination of REITs based on size reveals that the return generating process of small REITs differs from that of mid-size and large REITs. Analysis of the return generating process by performance shows high performance REITs are more sensitive to the independent variables in the model as compared to the low and mid performance REITs.     

Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns

We investigate the influence of unanticipated changes in US monetary policy on Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT’s). Although a number of studies have investigated the issue of interest rate changes, the effect of unanticipated changes has not previously been addressed in terms of possible effects on both REIT’s returns and volatility. The results show a strong response in both the first and second moments of REIT returns to unexpected policy rate changes. The results for the impact of the shock on both mean and volatility of returns is consistent with results from studies addressing broader equity markets. However, we find evidence both against behavioral changes in volatility coincident to US monetary policy decisions and asymmetric responses to the monetary policy shock.

言论:“从紧”当抓紧

宏观调控的重要性越来越明显,尤其是最近。物价上涨,房价上涨……当所有与钱沾边的东西都涨声一片的时候,一个令人担忧的危险信号正在悄悄地向我们走来,那就是通货膨胀。而最近被媒体热炒的两个及时且必     

Idiosyncratic Risk and REIT Returns

The volatility of a stock returns can be decomposed into market and firm-specific volatility, with the former commonly known as systematic risk and the later as idiosyncratic risk. This study examines the relevance of idiosyncratic risk in explaining the monthly cross-sectional returns of REIT stocks. Contrary to the CAPM theory, a significant positive relationship is found between idiosyncratic volatility and the cross-sectional returns. This suggests that firm-specific risk matters in REIT pricing. The regression results further show that once idiosyncratic risk is controlled for in the asset-pricing model, the size and book-to-market equity ratio factors ceased to be significant. The explanatory power of the momentum effect remains robust in the presence of idiosyncratic risk.

Analyst Activity and Firm Value: Evidence from the REIT Sector

This paper is the first to examine (1) properties of analyst forecasts and (2) effects of analyst following on firm value for all REITs on CRSP, Compustat and I/B/E/S. Our results suggest that REITs operate in an information environment that has changed over time. We find that for periods when the REIT industry was either in the developmental stage (pre-1992), or after other structural changes in the industry (post-2000), more analysts cover REITs and forecasts are more accurate and less biased. Further, we find that mortgage REITs are more transparent than other REIT structures and exhibit properties of analyst behavior that are different from other types of REITs. Our investigation into the effect of analyst coverage on REIT value suggests that analyst coverage increases REIT value (as measured by Tobin’s q) and that the causality does not run the opposite way.

Trade-offs between Asset Location and Proximity to Home: Evidence from REIT Property Sell-offs

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - We examine property sell-offs by real estate investment trusts (REITs) and find that investors respond favorably to sales of properties located...     

REIT Institutional Ownership Dynamics and the Financial Crisis

Collectively, institutional investors hold large ownership stakes in REITs. The traditional view is that institutions are both long-term and passive investors. The financial crisis beginning in 2007 provides an opportunity to analyze the investment choices of institutional investors before, during, and after the crisis. Our results indicate that institutional ownership increased prior to the financial crisis, declined significantly during the period of market stress, but rebounded after. These results hold for four institutional investor subtypes: mutual funds/investment advisors, bank trusts, insurance companies, and other institutions, with mutual funds/investment advisors and bank trusts most clearly exhibiting this pattern. We also find evidence that institutions actively manage their REIT portfolios, displaying a “flight to quality” after the market downturn by reducing beta and individual risk exposure, and by increasing ownership in larger REITs.     

REIT IPOs and the Cost of Going Public

We examine Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that went public between 1986 and 2004. Consistent with previous studies, we find that REIT IPOs are associated with lower levels of underpricing relative to traditional issues. We also find that REITs are associated with smaller file price revisions. Both findings are potentially attributable to the lower level of uncertainty associated with pricing REITs. In contrast, using an alternative measure of issuance costs that incorporates the share retention decision by preexisting owners, we find no significant difference between REIT and non-REIT issues, suggesting the results of previous studies are not robust to various specifications of issuance cost and that preexisting owners do not necessarily benefit from the lower level of underpricing. Additionally, we find no difference in the issuance costs of equity versus mortgage REITs, particularly once we control for the use of umbrella partnerships.

The Asymmetric Response of Equity REIT Returns to Inflation

This paper posits that the failure of past studies to document a positive relationship between REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) returns and inflation is an artifact of the empirical framework that has predominated in these studies. Applying a pooled estimation methodology to an expansive data set containing 195 publicly traded equity REITs for the period 1981–2002, the study documents a strong asymmetry in the response of equity REIT returns to inflation. Specifically, when expected and unexpected inflation are separated into positive and negative changes, results indicate that equity REIT returns rise in response to both increases and decreases in inflation. The evidence, which is partly contingent on the prevailing monetary policy environment, carries important policy implications for portfolio management and provides insights into the observed anomalous relationship between REITs and inflation.     

REIT Short Sales and Return Predictability

We examine REIT short sale transactions and show REITs are shorted less frequently than non-REITs. Results also show short sellers are less able to predict negative future returns for REITs, relative to non-REITs, which is consistent with increased pricing efficiency for REITs and suggests REIT assets are more transparent. In a broader context, these results suggest differences in transparency across asset types influence the effectiveness of short selling. Results showing REIT short sellers are contrarian imply traders target REITs that are performing well instead of underperforming REITs, suggesting restrictions on REIT short sales should be re-evaluated.     

REIT Operational Efficiency: Performance,Risk, and Return

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Relations between Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) efficiency and operational performance, risk, and stock return are examined. REIT-level...     

Tenant Quality and REIT Liquidity Management

Property values depend upon quality tenants and consistency (Smith: The RMA Journal 50-60, 2009). REIT firms are only as strong as their properties. In this research I examine how tenant quality affects REIT firm liquidity management (i.e. cash holdings and utilization of line of credit). I find that 1) tenant Altman Z-score and size are inversely related to total liquidity (cash plus unused credit line) and unused credit lines of REIT firms; 2) tenant size is inversely related to the total corporate liquidity and unused credit lines of REIT firms, but has no affect on REIT cash holdings; 3) tenant credit ratings are negatively related to total credit available and unused credit lines; 4) tenant book-to-market ratio and tenant profitability are negatively related to REIT cash holdings, but positively correlated to the total available credit lines and unused credit lines of REIT firms; 5) these effects vary across different property types. These results suggest that the analysis of tenant quality can offer insights into the firm policy and decision makings of REIT firms.     

Property Segment and REIT Capital Structure

This paper relies on an increasing number of industry equilibrium studies linking a firm to its industry peers to help explain the observed REIT capital structure variation within property segments beyond what is possible with the traditional partial equilibrium trade-off and pecking order theories, which assume that each firm operates in isolation from other market participants and are not particularly suitable to REITs because of the regulated setting within which these firms operate. We build several proxies for a REIT’s position within its property segment. Consistent with the competitive equilibrium model of Maksimovic and Zechner (1991), we find that a REIT’s volatility of operating performance relative to the median volatility of operating performance of its segment peers is an important determinant of its leverage ratio. We also find that a REIT’s leverage ratio depends on the median leverage ratio in its segment. Leverage is also related to a REIT’s status as an incumbent and its role as a leader in the property segment.     

REIT Debt Pricing and Ownership Structure

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - We show that ownership by institutional investors with increased incentives to monitor decreases the cost of both public and private debt in the...