Organic and Acquisitive Growth: Re‐examining,Testing and Extending Penrose's Growth Theory

Edith Penrose's theory of firm growth postulates that a firm's current growth rate will be influenced by the adjustment costs of, and changes to a firm's productive opportunity set arising from, previous growth. Although she explicitly considered the effect of previous organic growth on current organic growth, she was largely silent about the effect of previous acquisitive growth. In this paper we extend Penrose's work to examine how previous rates of organic and acquisitive growth influence current organic growth. Employing a panel of Swedish firms over a 10‐year period, our results suggest the following. First, previous organic growth acts as a constraint on current organic growth. Second, previous acquisitive growth has a positive effect on current organic growth. We conclude that organic growth and acquisitive growth constitute two distinct strategic options facing the firm, which have a differential impact on the future organic growth of the firm.     

Money,random matching and endogenous growth: A quantitative analysis

In this study, we develop a search-and-matching monetary growth model to analyze the effects of inflation on economic growth and social welfare by introducing endogenous economic growth via capital externality into a two-sector search-and-matching model. We find that the channel through which inflation affects economic growth in the search-and-matching model is different from the traditional cash-in-advance model. To facilitate the calibration, we obtain an empirical estimate of the effects of inflation on economic growth using panel regressions. In the simulation analysis, we quantitatively evaluate the welfare effect of inflation in the search-and-matching endogenous growth model and compare it to a search-and-matching exogenous growth model. We find that the welfare effect of inflation is nonlinear in the endogenous growth model whereas it is linear in the exogenous growth model. Furthermore, we find that the welfare cost of inflation under endogenous growth is up to four times as large as the welfare cost of inflation under exogenous growth.     

A generalization of the logistic growth function and its estimation

Summary This paper presents a generalization of the logistic growth function based on a model for relative growth rates. The basic relative growth rate model is based on the Riccati differential equation, which has a solution that closely resembles the familiar S -shaped logistic curve. For estimation purposes, a statistical version of this model is developed in which linear, exponential, and modified exponential growth in addition to logistic growth arise as special cases under various statistical hypotheses. The growth of yeast cells, population growth of the Netherlands and an example from the telephone industry are provided as illustrations of the model.     

The Shrinking City as a Growth Machine: Detroit's Reinvention of Growth through Triage,Foundation Work and Talent Attraction

Despite Detroit's reputation for social and financial crisis, developers and investors have successfully pursued growth and land-use intensification in recent years. However, in Molotch's initial conception of the growth machine, environments of extreme decline go under analyzed. While scholars have investigated the role of growth in Detroit, they have narrowly focused on a single document: the Detroit Future City framework. This work looks more holistically at the development networks leveraged to pursue growth through a discourse analysis of a broader set of development documents and interviews with development professionals, uncovering ways the growth machine adapts to this unlikely environment for growth. Rather than proposing an alternative to growth for a shrinking city, growth elites (led by philanthropic foundations) propose development scenarios leveraging triage to channel diminished amounts of development resources. In doing this, Greater Downtown, with its investment potential, is polarized from other areas of the city seen as risky investments. In addition to focusing growth in investment-friendly areas, growth coalitions pursue incentives and branding campaigns to attract talent and affluence. These dynamics are a divergence from the growth machine model that supports the narrative that growth benefits all residents in favor of a narrative of triage.     

The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach

This paper examines the determinants of employment growth in metro areas. To obtain growth rates, we use a Markov-switching model that separates a city's growth path into two distinct phases (high and low), each with its own growth rate. The simple average growth rate over some period is, therefore, the weighted average of the high-phase and low-phase growth rates, with the weight being the frequency of the two phases. We estimate the effects of a variety of factors separately for the high-phase and low-phase growth rates. Growth in the high phase is related to both human capital and industry mix, while growth in the low phase is related to industry mix only, specifically, the relative importance of manufacturing. Overall, our results strongly reject the notion that city-level characteristics influence employment growth equally across the phases of the business cycle.     

The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach

This paper examines the determinants of employment growth in metro areas. To obtain growth rates, we use a Markov-switching model that separates a city's growth path into two distinct phases (high and low), each with its own growth rate. The simple average growth rate over some period is, therefore, the weighted average of the high-phase and low-phase growth rates, with the weight being the frequency of the two phases. We estimate the effects of a variety of factors separately for the high-phase and low-phase growth rates. Growth in the high phase is related to both human capital and industry mix, while growth in the low phase is related to industry mix only, specifically, the relative importance of manufacturing. Overall, our results strongly reject the notion that city-level characteristics influence employment growth equally across the phases of the business cycle.     

产业集群中的“成长场”研究

将集群、综合实力和时间三个要素整合为三个维度。以此为基础构建企业的虚拟成长空间,定义了企业成长场的概念．提出了成长场的概念模型、数量模型和成长势的概念;并从成长场、成长势、成长力三者之间的关系进一步探讨成长场的作用机理。将电磁理论中场的概念引申到集群企业中加以衍化,通过对物理场的研究从而更好的阐述集群中企业的发展方向。     

经济发展质量及其指标体系初探

将经济增长从依靠投入、追求数量的增长逐步转变为注重经济发展质量的提高是转变经济发展方式的重要内涵和目标追求,而经济发展质量的提高又需要建立与之相配套的指标体系进行综合评价。文章立足于对经济发展质量的研究,参考借鉴了德国稳定增长法所设立的衡量经济发展质量的4大指标,提出了建立与国际接轨,具有中国特色的经济发展质量指标体系的初步构想。     

Technology capital: the price of admission to the growth club

We assess long-run patterns of global agricultural productivity growth between 1970 and 2005 and examine the relationship between investments in technology capital and productivity. To measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) we employ a Solow-type growth accounting method to decompose output growth into input and TFP growth. For technology capital we construct two indexes reflecting national capacities in agricultural research and education-extension for 87 developing countries. We then correlate technology capital levels with long-term growth rates in agricultural TFP. Our findings show that global agricultural TFP growth as a whole accelerated since 1980, although performance was very uneven across developing countries. TFP growth rates were significantly influenced by technology capital. Marginal improvements to research capacity, given a minimal level of extension and schooling existed, were associated with faster TFP growth. However, marginal increases in extension-schooling without commensurate improvements in research capacity did not improve productivity performance.     

方法、数据与全要素生产率测算差异

研究目标：检验不同方法之间TFP测算结果的“一致性”和“稳健性”,探讨测算方法和数据选取问题。研究方法：以中国2004~2012年总量分行业面板数据为例,从多个角度比较TFP测算结果,以及通过统计检验选取适用测算方法。研究发现：第一,研究的问题不同,测算方法之间“一致性”的检验结论不同;第二,在选择测算方法时,进行相关统计量检验是必要的,这有助于鉴别模型设定是否合理,缩小可选模型范围;第三,测算方法的选择,要符合数据本身的特征,基于宏观分行业面板数据,DEA是更为适用的TFP测算方法,而劳动力投入应选取全社会从业人员指标。研究创新：多种测算方法和统计检验的应用。研究价值：本文尝试构建如何选择TFP测算方法的一般框架。     

Gender discrimination in education,health, and labour market: a voice for equality

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of gender discrimination in education, health, and labour market on economic growth in a panel of 20 high-income OECD countries for the period of 1980–2015. In addition, the study proposed an index of pro-equality growth, which is flared with education, health, and labour market initiatives to promote economic growth. The results show that gender parity index for educational attainment significantly promotes economic growth while health and labour market required substantial policy reforms to reduce health and labour market inequalities to sustain long-term economic growth. The results classified three countries as highly equitable growth, one country for equitable growth, two countries are moderate growth, four countries are less equitable growth while remaining 10 countries fall in the category of inequitable growth, where greater inequality promotes economic growth on the cost of education, health, and labour market inequalities.     

异质性能源消费与经济增长的非线性动态驱动机制

研究目标：测度改革开放近40年来,中国异质性能源消费与经济增长的非线性动态驱动机制。研究方法：基于煤炭、石油、天然气、电力消费以及GDP年度数据,运用马尔科夫区制转移因果(MSC) 模型开展实证研究。研究发现：经济增长能够促进煤炭、石油、天然气和电力等异质性能源消费的提高,其中,石油和天然气消费的增加能够推动经济增长。经济增长对煤炭和石油消费的驱动作用持续期较长,对天然气和电力消费的驱动作用持续期较短,四种能源消费对经济增长驱动作用的时间长度大致相同。近年来,石油消费能够表现出对经济增长的非线性动态驱动作用,经济增长能够对石油和煤炭消费发挥非线性动态驱动作用。在金融危机时期,难以表现出经济增长对能源消费的单向时变因果影响,其中,煤炭、石油和天然气消费无法表现出对经济增长的单向时变因果影响,而电力消费对经济增长存在单向时变因果影响。研究创新：基于MSC模型,判断不同时段内异质性能源消费与经济增长的时变因果关系,进而揭示两者之间的非线性动态驱动机制。研究价值：为中国完成能源产业结构转型以及构建新时代能源产业体系提供经验证据。     

Modeling Growth Data Using Multidimensional Scaling Profile Analysis

This paper discusses how Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) can provide an exploratory technique for identifying major growth profiles, which may be indicative of growth associated with subgroups. It briefly overviews the conventional growth models and growth mixture models, examines the assumptions related to these models, and indicates some limitations associated with these models. It then proposes an exploratory growth profile analysis using the MDS model as a complement to more specification-oriented techniques. It describes the Profile Analysis via Multidimensional Scaling model (PAMS) and extends the model for longitudinal data. The MDS profile model can solve for the growth parameters such that each MDS dimension corresponds to a major growth profile. It is argued that the MDS model provides an exploratory tool for identifying growth trends and studying individual differences with respect to those growth trends. Since MDS has not traditionally been used for longitudinal studies, the MDS growth analysis can serve as the basis for studies of the kind discussed in the paper.     

现代经济增长理论的演进

经济增长理论是一个古老的话题。现代经济增长理论则是直接从凯恩斯理论基础上发展起来的增长理论。现代经济增长理论从哈罗德和多马的研究开始,到新古典增长理论,再到新经济增长理论(内生经济增长理论),取得了长足的发展。本文就对现代经济增长理论的发展加以综述。     

Child Growth in the Time of Drought

This paper examines the impact of rainfall shocks on a measure of child health, growth in height, drawing on a unique household panel data set from rural Zimbabwe. We find that children aged 12 to 24 months lose 1.5-2 cm of growth in the aftermath of a drought. Catch-up growth in these children is limited so that this growth faltering has a permanent effect. By contrast, there is no evidence that older children experience a slowdown in growth. There is some evidence that the loss in growth is unequally distributed with children residing in poorer households and offspring of women who are daughters of the household head appearing to be especially vulnerable.     

A model of the economy based on an interpolated growth matrix

This paper deals with direct and indirect growth rates of sectors and with the interpolated growth matrix of the economy. Its purpose is to determine the model based on the interpolated growth matrix which enables a new approach in the planning of the growth of the economy. The formulation of such a model is useful for the expression of specific structural problems as well as for the extrapolation of system elements into the future. It is characterized by the use of lower and upper projections of growth and mutual relations of sector growths as a basis for programming future sector changes. In contrast to methods in which the direct growth rates of sectors are given, in this case such trends are determined as endogenous variables. At the same time, we use a large amount of data by means of the indirect growth rates in order to describe more completely the dependences among the sectors.     

Impact of World Bank lending in an adjustment-led growth model

Within a financial- and growth-programming framework, this paper develops a policy-driven growth model and addresses the effects of World Bank lending on economic growth in a sample of 30 countries, after having controlled for the effects of key macroeconomic variables. Both static and dynamic panel estimates suggest a positive significant effect of the rate of growth in World Bank lending on economic growth, conditional on other variables, namely changes in exchange rate, domestic credit growth, and inflation. Empirical evidence also reveals the positive effect of a macroeconomic policy index in this sample of developing countries.     

Oil price shocks and economic growth: The volatility link

This paper shows that oil shocks impact economic growth primarily through the conditional variance of growth. Our comparison of models focuses on density forecasts. Over a range of dynamic models, oil shock measures and data, we find a robust link between oil shocks and the volatility of economic growth. We then develop a new measure of oil shocks and show that it is superior to existing measures; it indicates that the conditional variance of growth increases in response to an indicator of the local maximum oil price exceedance. The empirical results uncover a large pronounced asymmetric response of the growth volatility to oil price changes. The uncertainty about future growth is considerably lower than with a benchmark AR(1) model when no oil shocks are present.     

An essay: limited growth,problems of full employment,and the viciousness of easy solutions

This paper reviews some of the possible effects that a slowdown in national rates of economic growth might have on levels of unemployment in an economically advanced nation. The consequences of three types of growth ceilings are considered; “zero population growth”, “limited growth” and “restricted growth”.     

Patterns of technology,industry concentration,and productivity growth without scale effects

This paper investigates the relationship between geographic patterns of industry and economic growth in a two-country model of trade with no scale effect, where productivity growth is generated by firm investment in process innovation. We find that dispersed equilibria with industry located in both countries produce higher growth rates than concentrated equilibria with all industry located in one country. The highest growth rate arises for equal industry shares and no productivity gap, implying that industry concentration has a negative effect on overall growth. Convergence towards a dispersed equilibrium is contingent on transport costs and knowledge dispersion.