政府支出与居民消费:替代或互补——基于非线性有效消费函数的实证

以非线性有效消费函数为基础,笔者构造了一个政府支出与居民消费的跨期替代模型,并利用1978年～2004年相关数据,实证研究了我国政府支出与居民消费的关系.研究结果表明,在短期内,我国政府支出与居民消费呈互补关系;但在长期内,我国政府支出与居民消费呈替代关系,即政府支出挤占居民消费支出.因此,在短期内,政府可以通过增加支出增加居民消费以提高社会总需求;但在长期经济均衡时,政府不宜采用支出政策来实现长期经济目标.     

财政支出、经济外部性与政府双重角色转换——基于DSGE模型的理论分析和实证研究

将政府财政支出分解为消费性支出和生产性支出,建立了政府消费性支出与私人消费之间、政府资本与私人资本之间的非线性替代关系函数。将政府公共生产性服务和公共消费性服务的双重角色加入动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,分析不同经济结构下政府的双重角色对中国宏观经济的影响差异。实证结果显示:政府生产性支出的弹性系数正在变小,政府生产性支出对中国宏观经济的影响在逐渐消失;在合理监管下,政府消费性支出有利于改善和提高人们的生活质量,并且不会对私人投资产生挤出效应。因此,政府应加大对财政消费性支出的监管力度。     

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Pakistan: a disaggregate analysis

This study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The study utilizes VAR framework and uses quarterly data of Pakistan from 1976Q1 to 2017Q4. The results showed that after an increase in government expenditures, private consumption and prices take three quarters to increase, while private investment follows the declining trend. Private consumption and interest rate are negatively related with taxes, while private investment and prices are positively related with taxes. Real GDP, private consumption and interest rate respond positively with an increase in developmental expenditure, public consumption and public investment. Private investment is negatively related with development expenditure, public consumption and public investment. An increase in direct tax as well as indirect tax leads to an increase in real GDP, private investment and interest rate, while private consumption takes three to five quarters to responds. Private investment and prices are positively related with non-tax revenue, while real GDP, private consumption and interest rate are negatively related. These results support the Keynesian view that government expenditure and taxes are useful tools to stimulate the economic activity, while crowding-out hypothesis holds in Pakistan as well. An active and efficient role of government is required for macroeconomic stability.     

Disaggregated approach to government spending shocks: a theoretical analysis

We calibrate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features a transmission mechanism with different types of government spending, while the literature usually treats government spending as a homogenous compound. In this regard, we manage to distinguish between different types of government spending (namely: government investment, government wage component consumption and non-wage component consumption) where each type of spending has a varied role in the economy. The government wage increase has the largest positive effect both on private consumption and output by affecting the economy through the government production. This is a natural consequence of government production being complementary to private consumption in our model. Other two government spending types, namely government non-wage consumption and government investment, also have positive effects on output, whereas their responses on (private) consumption are mostly negative. These results provide an alternative explanation for the wide range of multipliers existing in the literature as our setup enables them to produce different effects on macroeconomic variables.     

我国政府支出和公共投资对私人投资的效应分析

首先采用Diamond模型对公共投资及各项政府支出对私人投资影响进行理论分析;然后利用1980~2005年间的数据,运用协整检验、单方程误差修正模型分析了我国政府支出和公共投资及各项政府支出对私人投资的长短期效应;经验结果表明无论从长期还是短期看政府支出挤出了私人投资而公共投资则挤入了私人投资,国防支出和行政管理支出在长期和短期都挤出了私人投资,社会文教支出长期挤入了私人投资,短期挤出了私人投资。     

关于公共支出与经济增长的国内外研究综述

公共支出与经济增长的关系一直以来为经济学家们所争论。持公共支出促进经济增长观点认为,政府公共支出在经济增长中发挥着重要作用,因为它为经济发展提供了大量的公共品和其他具有外部效应的公共福利或服务,从而鼓励和便利了私人投资,形成了一个较好的投资环境,促进了经济增长。而持反对意见的认为,公共支出往往是生产率较低的,为融通政府支出而形成的高税收又会对私人部门的消费和投资造成很大的负面影响,因此,必须缩减政府支出,才能保证经济增长。当然也有人持两者根本就没有关系的观点。     

政府支出与居民消费——一个基于跨期替代模型的中国经验分析

政府支出的增加之所以能够引致居民消费的增长，是由于政府支出具有乘数效应。本文通过建立一个居民消费的跨期替代模型，分析了中国的政府支出与居民消费之间的关系，认为在短期内，中国政府可能通过增加政府支出的方式增加总需求，但在长期均衡时政府支出完全挤占了消费支出。     

Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment with Growth: Some Simulation Results *

This paper examines the impact of several macroeconomic policies, both demand and supply management policies, on economic activity within a small macroeconomic simulation model. The model is based on a standard analytical framework that underlies adjustment policies in developing economies (Des). The standard approach has been to use aggregate government expenditure as an instrument of fiscal policy to shock economic activity in a DE, with a negative dynamic response typically observed. In the context of such a small macroeconomic simulation model we decompose government expenditure into consumption and investment expenditure. Simulation exercises with and without model-consistent expectations throw up some contrasting results in the sense that fiscal policy can influence output positively through the effects of public sector investment on private investment in a DE such as India. [F43, E62]     

Effects of government expenditure on private investment: Canadian empirical evidence

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between government expenditures and private investment in Canada during the period 1961 to 2000. To this end, effects of five categories of government expenditures on investment are examined within the cointegration and error-correction framework. The empirical results show that government expenditure on education and health has positive effects whereas government expenditures on capital and infrastructure have negative effects on private investment. The other expenditure categories, including government expenditure on protection of persons and property, expenditure on debt charges, and expenditure on government and social services have no significant effects on private investment.I wish to thank Baldev Raj for his valuable comments on this study which have led to an important improvement in the paper. I would also like to thank my colleagues Tomson Ogwang, Paul Bowles, Jalil Safaei, and an anonymous referee for their comments. However, the usual disclaimer applies.First version Received: May 2002/Final version received:20 May 2004     

The role of spillovers in research and development expenditure in Australian industries

Using administrative data from firms in Australia that conduct research and development (R&;D), we examine how R&;D activity of other firms and public institutions affect a firm's own R&;D expenditure. We distinguish between the impact of peers, suppliers and clients. We examine whether geographical proximity and industrial clustering affect R&;D spillovers. Overall, we detect positive effects on R&;D expenditure from spillovers from peers and clients to firms that are nearby; within 25 or 50?km. R&;D expenditure by academia, unlike by government bodies, has a positive influence on a firm's own R&;D expenditure within state boundaries. We fail to find any significant role for industrial clusters in augmenting spillover effects.     

财政农业支出对农村居民消费影响的经验分析

本文采用广义最小二乘法对财政农业支出与农村居民消费的关系进行了经验性探讨。结果表明:财政用于农业支出对农村居民消费有拉动效用,其中,支农支出和农业基本建设支出对消费有明显促进作用,但未发现农业科研和农村救济费对消费有影响。笔者结合财政支农资金总量及结构变动趋势,认为建立财政用于农业支出的长效投资机制,倾向于农业生产性投资的支出结构,是刺激农村消费的有效途径。     

Spillover from private energy research

Technological progress is generally considered a key element in the move towards a less carbon-intensive energy use, and therefore public energy research expenditure has increased in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether relatively high subsidies to private energy research can be justified by higher external knowledge spillovers from private energy research compared to knowledge spillovers from other private research. Estimation of spillover effects is carried out using an unbalanced panel of more than a thousand Danish private companies observed over the period 2000–2007. We reject that there are higher spillovers from private energy research compared to other types of private research. Instead the results suggest that the external knowledge spillovers from energy research may be lower than for other types of private research. This implies that high subsidies earmarked for private energy research should not be an element in a first best policy to reduce CO₂ emissions.     

Consumption multipliers of different types of public spending: a structural vector error correction analysis for the UK

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government spending and private consumption in the UK, for which there is scarce previous empirical evidence. We disaggregate public expenditure into three categories and search for the corresponding private consumption multipliers. Our analysis is based on the estimation of a structural vector error correction model with quarterly non-interpolated data for the period 1981:1–2007:4. Initially, we estimate negative but barely significant effects on consumption of shocks to total public spending. Then, using the public spending breaking down, we find that while shocks to public wages crowd-out private consumption as predicted by neoclassical models, shocks to the non-systematic component of social spending and government purchases of goods and services generate a positive reaction, so to crowd-in private consumption. Thus, the qualitative and quantitative dimensions of fiscal multipliers on private consumption change across different public spending categories. Our findings suggest that any empirical support of competing theoretical models on the issue would benefit from a disaggregation of government expenditure, rather than focusing on the aggregate measure.     

Does defence expenditure affect private consumption? Evidence from the United States

This paper empirically discusses the relationship between government defence expenditure and private consumption for the United States. The estimations show a substitution or complementary effect of the military sector on private categories of consumer choices, although sensitivity analysis for different utility functions and sub-samples indicates a time-decrease on substitutability. Our findings are in line with previous results highlighting a weak substitution of defence expenditure on aggregate consumption.     

US Fiscal Policy,Manufacturing Stagnation,and the Shift to Financialization in the Era of Globalization: An Econometric Analysis, 1973–2015

ABSTRACT

Financialization can be partially attributed to the decline in the US manufacturing profit rate since the 1970s. However, scholars have not reached a consensus regarding the factors responsible for stagnation in manufacturing. This paper employs an Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to test the impact of both national defense and government consumption expenditure on manufacturing profitability in the United States from 1973, the onset of stagnation, to 2015. Its goal is two-fold: to determine whether stagnation is associated with a decline in Keynesian policies, and to examine the potential for state fiscal programs to reverse this trend and facilitate a shift of private investment away from the financial sector and into manufacturing. The paper finds that the impact of government consumption expenditure on the manufacturing profit rate is positive and significant in both the short-term and long-term (from 1973–2015 and 1973–1993), while the long-term impact becomes negative from 1983 to 2015, when the financial sector profit rate began its upward trend. This casts doubt on whether Keynesian fiscal policies could be employed to restore a healthy profit rate in the manufacturing sector and lower unemployment.     

Economic growth and budgetary components: a panel assessment for the EU

In this article, we test to determine whether a reallocation of government budgetary components can enhance long-term GDP growth in a set of 15 EU countries. We apply panel data techniques to the period 1971–2006, and use three alternative dependent variables in a growth regression: economic growth, total factor productivity and labour productivity. Our results also identify the distortions induced by public expenditure in the private factors allocation. In particular, we detect a strong crowding-in effect associated to public investment, which has enhanced economic growth by boosting private investment. We also associate a dependence of productivity on public expenditure on social security.     

政府支出对居民消费的影响——对Barro-Ricardo等价之谜的中国经验分析

本文基于居民消费跨期最优化分析框架,从理论及实证角度分析了政府支出对居民消费的影响。理论研究表明,政府支出对居民消费的影响主要取决于消费者相对风险规避系数及私人消费支出与政府支出之间的相关系数。并以中国为例,在李嘉图等价框架下从经验角度考察了中国政府支出对居民消费的影响。短期内,李嘉图等价不成立,政府支出与居民消费呈互补关系,即政府支出增加将导致居民消费增加。尤其需要注意的是,与通过征税来增加政府支出相比,通过发行国债增加政府支出对总需求的扩张效应更大,积极的财政政策在我国是有效的。但在长期中,政府支出将完全挤占居民消费支出,因而支出政策不宜用于实现政府的长期经济目标。     

我国知识生产投入产出关系的动态分析

知识生产和创新是促进技术进步和经济增长的重要因素。企业通过R&D投入可以生产出新知识,知识积累形成知识存量,知识存量又推动了技术进步,并进一步引致经济增长。基于新增长理论关于知识生产函数的基本设定,本文首先给出了一个扩张形式的知识生产函数,而后根据我国现实经济数据,在向量自回归的框架下通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解考察了各类因素对我国知识生产的影响。研究表明,R&D经费、R&D人员和知识存量对我国知识生产具有显著的促进作用;外商直接投资和进口对我国知识生产的促进作用不显著。本文认为,应采取切实措施鼓励企业增加R&D投入,同时增加政府财政支出中R&D投入的力度。     

基于面板协整的地方政府支出与居民消费关系的实证检验

通过构建政府支出与居民消费跨期替代模型,并利用1990—2005年27个省(市、自治区)相关数据进行面板协整检验和完全修正普通最小二乘估计,我们可以看到,中国地方政府支出与居民消费呈现较弱的互补关系。因此,需要改变地方政府的投资结构,提高政府支出的消费效应。     

Public Spending and Private Investment: Evidence From Greece

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there is a link between disaggregated measures of government expenditures and private investment in Greece. A cointegration analysis of a multivariate system of equations is applied in order to empirically estimate the long run relationships between private investment and different measure of government expenditures. Subsequently IRF and VDC are estimated. Government investment is found to assert a positive effect on private investment, supporting in this way the capital accumulation process. On the other hand, government consumption appears to compete for the same resources with government investment, while it negatively affects private investment. [E62]