The financial investment decision of non-financial firms in China

This paper constructs a portfolio model to analyze the determinants of the financial investment decision of non-financial firms in China. Unlike the literature assuming that financial investments are riskless, our model allows risks in both fixed and financial investments. We show that this extension provides an analytically similar but economically different model from the literature. In particular, it is relative risk and risk-adjusted return gap, not pure risk and simple return gap that enter into firms’ financial investment decision model. Using firm-level panel data of 1902 firms listed in Chinese stock market over the period from 2006 to 2016 with semi-annual frequency, we find that the ratio of fixed investment risk over total risk dominates financial investment decisions of non-financial firms. However, rates of risk-adjusted return gap between financial and fixed investments play no role in Chinese firms’ financial investment decisions, which is in stark contrast to the results using a model assuming riskless financial investments. The baseline findings are robust to alternative measures of financialization and investment risk and different firm sizes, ownership structures and time periods.     

简析金融期货在组合投资管理中的应用

文章根据现有的研究资料,详细论述了金融期货在组合投资管理中的应用,并根据笔者在这一方面的认识提出了一些对策建议,以期能够帮助投资者实现其金融产品的保值、增值的目的。     

A multi-criteria expert decision system for investment decisions: The case of commercial real estate investments in China

Consistent with the rapid growth of the Chinese economy and its commercial real estate (CRE) market, evaluating CRE investments in China is becoming an important application area where a multi-criteria expert decision system can make a significant contribution. We used a multi-criteria expert decision system to evaluate ten actual CRE investments in China. Based on thirty-one industry experts, we identified key decision factors to consider when evaluating different CRE investment projects and determined their importance weights. We then evaluated whether or not the ten CRE investment projects were considered to be successful, taking into account the unique characteristics of each CRE investment project. We finally compared the evaluations for the ten cases with their actual performance using four different performance indicators. The results showed that the evaluations had at least 87.5% accuracy across four different performance indicators. As probably one of the first systematic and in-depth scholarly studies to evaluate CRE investment projects in China, this study contributes to a better understanding of such evaluations and helps CRE investors evaluate CRE investment projects in a more informed fashion.     

Risk assessment of China's foreign direct investment in "One Belt,One Road": Taking the green finance as a research perspective

With the active promotion of the "the Belt and Road" initiative, overseas investment has shown a market prospect of explosive growth in various countries and has received continuous attention from scholars at home and abroad. With the proposal of the goal of carbon neutrality in countries and regions along the Belt and Road, green investment has become a new driving force for foreign investment. Based on the theory of quality function deployment (QFD) and the G1 entropy method in fuzzy mathematics, this paper constructs 10 risk indicators of China's foreign investment from the perspective of green from the four levels of economic risk, environmental risk, social and cultural risk and political risk, and studies 61 countries along the line. The results show that the four types of risks have an important impact on China's foreign investment. Therefore, Chinese government and enterprises should strengthen the comprehensive evaluation of the overall situation of the host country when investing. Our research has not only achieved theoretical improvement and practical innovation, but also put forward targeted suggestions for China to strengthen risk prevention and control of investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" from the perspective of green finance.     

A quantitative analysis of optimal sustainable monetary policies

This study examines the quantitative properties of optimal sustainable monetary policies using a monetary model with a stabilization bias. As in Kurozumi (2008), the optimal sustainable policy is a strategy considered in the absence of commitment technologies; however it is implemented following an optimal quasi-sustainable policy derived by assuming that the commitment technologies are present. This study finds that solving for the policy function of the optimal quasi-sustainable policy yields a result basically identical to the Ramsey-optimal commitment policy under a set of parameters commonly used in the literature. The simulation shows two further results: policymakers have incentive to deviate from the Ramsey-optimal commitment policy when the lagged output gap is large and the optimal quasi-sustainable policy endogenously diminishes the steadfastness of policymakers׳ commitment.     

Two schools of risk analysis: A review of past research on project risk

Risk research can be generally categorized into two schools: risk as an objective fact and risk as a subjective construction. Both schools have different risk definitions, epistemological dimensions, and analytical methods, and tend to recommend different policies for managing risks. This study aims to locate the position of past studies on project risk found between the two schools of risk analysis and to help understand their basic assumptions and viewpoints by reviewing articles published during the last 10 years in two project management journals: the International Journal of Project Management and Project Management Journal. There are 171 articles collected from both journals. They are categorized into four groups: project management system, subjective perception, irrational behavior in risk management, and subjective construction. This study describes and discusses the basic assumptions, viewpoints, and tendencies usually held by each group, and it indicates the position of each group found between the two schools. It also develops some discussion on the starting point of both schools of risk analysis and their significance in directing practices of project risk management.     

Network management as a contingent activity. A configurational analysis of managerial behaviors in different network settings

ABSTRACT

Network managers engage in several day-to-day activities, including bridging, networking, and stabilizing relationships. Still, when should they opt for one activity or another? Our study shows that this choice needs to be taken in combination with certain network characteristics, such as network development stage, connectivity, and trust. It sheds light on four different combinations of activities and network characteristics that are simultaneously able to lead to perceived high network performance. It also suggests three approaches to network management in networks that differ in their development stage, connectivity and trust: stabilize, stabilize and connect, stabilize and develop.     

中国企业跨国并购投资中的风险分析

国际形势风云变幻,世界金融危机席卷全球,欧美国家的企业纷纷出现经营困境,世界经营格局发生了巨大变化。这些都为中国企业的跨国并购提供了难得的良机。然而,跨国并购并不是一帆风顺的,甚至可能是一个巨大的陷阱,对并购行为中风险的模糊认识会危及并购企业本身。跨国并购风险分析已经成为了企业实施并购行为时的必要工作。     

Tempering effects of (dependent) background risks: A mean-variance analysis of portfolio selection

In a mean variance framework, we analyse risk taking in the presence of a (possibly) dependent background risk, exemplified in a linear portfolio selection problem. We first characterise the comparative statics of changes in the distribution and dependence structure of the background risk. For unfair, undesirable and loss-aggravating increases in background risks (both dependent and independent), we then present necessary and sufficient restrictions on preferences such that greater background uncertainty leads to reduced risk taking. With mean-variance preferences, these restrictions boil down to simple conditions on the marginal rate of substitution between risk and return. They can be easily related to familiar notions such as risk vulnerability, properness or standardness.     

银企共解中小企业融资难可行性途径研究——基于中小企业市场化资信机制下的专项扶持模式探讨

中小企业融资难在世界各国都很普遍,但由于其在GDP增长、就业问题及技术进步等方面不可替代的地位,世界各国政府都给予高度关注。长期以来,我国政府与社会各界对中小企业融资难的问题一直非常关注,尤其在研究银行等金融机构的支持力度上的争论也颇多,但融资“瓶颈”问题一直未能得到实质解决。在当前复杂的国内外形势下,探索中小企业专项型融资渠道,建立资金融通安全管理与监控机制,对促进社会稳定与国民经济增长的作用,显示出紧迫性。该文从中央与地方政府、金融机构与管理机构及社会各界三方面,探讨如何破解中小企业融资难问题,力求探索出可行性途径。     

After Modigliani,Miller, and Hamada: A new way to estimate cost of capital

In this article, we discuss the impact of financial debt on shareholder value using a new approach that aims: (a) to explain the effect that leverage from debt has on a stock’s systematic risk, or what we shall call here “the systematic cost of leverage,” and (b) to account for default risk in the cost of equity, or what we shall call here “the cost of default.” Our assessment of systematic risk is based on a stochastic approach that is materially different from the one proposed by Hamada: the risk premium remunerates the investor for the probability of equity (expressed as market value) generating a return below that of the risk‐free rate. Furthermore, the approach we use to account for default risk is derived from reduced‐form models, but in this case, (a) we use real probabilities of default and not risk‐neutral probabilities, and (b) we extend the approach to stocks.