Business cycles and redistribution: The role of government quality

We study how government quality mediates the relationship between business cycles and redistribution. Our key hypothesis is that the potential of income redistribution to reduce rising inequality levels after an economic crisis depends on government quality. The empirical evidence based on a panel of 46 countries over the period 1996–2016 lends strong support to this hypothesis. We find that macroeconomic recessions promote redistribution of income in high government quality contexts, but they lead to wider economic inequalities in countries with poor quality of government.     

Military versus non-military government spending and the shadow economy

Using recent cross-national data, this research examines the determinants of the shadow economy, focusing on the relative effects of military and non-military government spending. Results show that, other things being the same, nations with larger military spending have smaller shadow economies, while the effect of non-military government spending is statistically insignificant. These findings stand up to various robustness checks.     

International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles: Explaining factors

The aim of this paper is to identify the explaining factors of the synchronization of the business cycles of the Mexican states and those of the US economy. The cycle indicator is obtained by de-trending the series of total formal employment (Mexican states) and nonfarm employment and industrial production (US). In general, our panel data model estimations suggest the existence of spatial autocorrelation and significant time-period fixed effects. Also, the estimates indicate a significant and positive effect of the ratio of foreign direct investment to gross domestic product (GDP), which may be supplementing the impact of international trade (driven by the most internationally integrated states) and a negative effect of the ratio of remittances to GDP (driven by less integrated states). Finally, the evidence suggests that more similar productive structures yield more synchronized business cycles.     

The political economy of international trade and factor mobility

Abstract. Free trade in goods and factors is efficient. When we move away from economic theory and consider the policies actually followed by governments, we observe distortions being implemented both on goods and factors trades. It is natural then to question the relative merits of the two types of intervention, and the normative literature has provided only partial answers. We ask then why is the international flow of goods and factors not free, and the political economy literature has looked at the two issues only separately. In studying the determination of trade policy, a theoretical paradigm has emerged, focusing on the role of influence driven contributions. This approach has also found strong empirical support. The literature on the political economy of factor mobility, on the other hand, is fragmented. Distortions in labor and capital flows are typically the subject of different studies, and only recently a unified framework has been proposed. More work has to be done in this area as well as in integrating the political economy of trade and factor movements.     

The international transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks: Evidence from a non-stationary dynamic factor model for the G7 countries

We employ a multi-country non-stationary dynamic factor model to assess spillover effects and transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks on a variety of macroeconomic variables in individual non-US G7 countries. We find that trade, financial and confidence channels all play a significant role in the international transmission of US shocks. However, the results point to substantial heterogeneities of shock transmission across the individual G7 economies. In particular, we find negative transmission effects for Italy and Japan as the only two G7 countries not well integrated into global value chains. Moreover, the exchange rate responses of Germany, France and Italy turn out to be far less pronounced in comparison to the other G7 economies which we relate to their membership of the euro area and their coordinated monetary policies prior to the establishment of the euro. Whereas we document a close comovement of stock market dynamics across the G7 countries, we find credit and real estate markets to be less synchronized. We do not find the effects and transmission channels to be fundamentally affected by the post-2008 economic environment.     

The international business cycle and gold-price fluctuations

Drawing on recent empirical research, we study whether the international business cycle, as measured in terms of the output gaps of the G7 countries, has out-of-sample predictive power for gold-price fluctuations. To this end, we use a real-time forecasting approach that accounts for model uncertainty and model instability. We find some evidence that the international business cycle has predictive power for gold-price fluctuations. After accounting for transaction costs, a simple trading rule that builds on real-time out-of-sample forecasts does not lead to a superior performance relative to a buy-and-hold strategy. We also suggest a behavioral-finance approach to study the quality of out-of-sample forecasts from the perspective of forecasters with potentially asymmetric loss functions.     

World,country, and sector factors in international business cycles

Do sector-specific factors common to all countries play an important role in explaining business cycle co-movement? We address this question by analyzing international co-movements of value added (VA) growth in a multi-sector dynamic factor model. The model contains a world factor, country-specific factors, sector-specific factors, and idiosyncratic components. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods for 30 disaggregated sectors in the G7 economies for the 1974–2004 period. Our findings show that, although there is a substantial role for sector-specific factors, fluctuations are dominated by country-factors. The world factor appears to play a minimal role because, when using aggregate data, the world factor captures both the factor common to all countries and industries and the factor common to the same industry across countries. We then examine how these factors evolved as globalization deepened over the past two decades. Our results suggest that business cycles at a disaggregate level have not become more synchronized internationally. This is mainly driven by a substantial fall in the volatility of world shocks during the globalization period, rather than a lower sensitivity of sectoral growth to world factors. Our results also reveal that world factors appear to be more important for industries with a higher level of international vertical integration.     

Limited participation in international business cycle models: A formal evaluation

In this paper, we argue that limited asset market participation (LAMP) plays an important role in explaining international business cycles. We show that when LAMP is introduced into an otherwise standard model of international business cycles, the performance of the model improves significantly, especially in matching cross-country correlations. To perform formal evaluation of the models we develop a novel statistical procedure that adapts the statistical framework of Vuong (1989) to DSGE models. Using this methodology, we show that the improvements brought out by LAMP are statistically significant, leading a model with LAMP to outperform a representative agent model. Furthermore, when LAMP is introduced, a model with complete markets is found to do as well as a model with no trade in financial assets – a well-known favorite in the literature. Our results remain robust to the inclusion of investment specific technology shocks.     

外贸对经济增长的贡献:中国经济增长奇迹的需求解析

针对外贸对中国经济增长的贡献是否显著这一问题和相关悖论,本文澄清了造成这一悖论的根本原因是传统测算方法在考虑消费、投资和出口对GDP的贡献时混淆了进口在GDP总量核算和贡献率分解核算中的不同作用,违背了贡献率核算中的进口项目在消费、投资和出口中的匹配分解原则,从而大大低估了出口对中国经济增长的真实贡献,由此所得到的结论及相关的政策分析和建议也就值得商榷。本文的结论与众多的研究结论相反,认为出口是拉动我国经济增长的主要推动力量,对我国经济增长具有至关重要的作用。     

Cultural distance and international trade in services: A disaggregate view

In this paper, we estimate the effect of “cultural distance” on bilateral trade in services. The measure of cultural distance we use is based on scores that reflect country averages of individuals’ attitudes towards inequality, self-orientation, competition, uncertainty, traditions, and indulgence. Controlling for standard ingredients of gravity equations, we show that an aggregate measure of cultural distance has a significantly negative effect on total bilateral services trade. Once we take a more disaggregate view, we find that the strength of this effect differs across various types of services and various aspects of cultural distance.     

The transmission of international shocks to CIS economies: A global VAR approach

This paper employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model to study the evolution of the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks. During an observation period of two decades, cross-country trade and financial linkages experience notable changes. We find CIS countries to be highly sensitive to global and regional shocks, with that sensitivity increasing after the global financial crisis. CIS countries show the strongest responses to output shocks originating in the US, Russia and within the region itself, but their sensitivity to euro area shocks also increases substantially. Despite growing trade relations with China, the responses of CIS countries to output shocks originating in China are still relatively moderate.     

New international evidence on the cyclical behaviour of output: Kuznets swings reconsidered

Spectral analysis is a particularly valuable method for seeking dependences expressed as lags between different magnitudes. Its use in this article was first determined by the search for maximum objectivity in the observation of time series. The possibility of applying it to a large number of series was then examined. This twin requirement resulted from a desire to avoid the criticism generally levelled at statistical studies concerning cyclical movements of the economy. Spectral analysis is based on the theory of stochastic processes. It starts with the core hypothesis that a given time series consists of a large number of sinusoidal components with different frequencies (univariate spectral analysis). It makes it possible to divide a particular category of records into a set of oscillations of different frequencies and then to show the links between the components with the same frequency in the various series examined (cross-spectral or bivariate spectral analysis). It has had limited applications in cliometrics to date. It is used here to determine the frequency of GDP series of several OECD countries. A reminder of the method Sect. 2 is followed by successive examination of the various series chosen, the treatment of these series and the results of spectral analysis Sect. 3. It is then possible as a conclusion to show the prospects of this type of approach and to synthesise a completely new major result for understanding economic dynamics in nineteenth and twentieth centuries, that is to say the existence of a single intermediate cycle with 15–20-year frequency that calls into question or even partially contradicts previous work on economic cycles.      

Public spending and economies of scale in partial fiscal decentralized governments: The case of Chile

This article evaluates economies of scale in local public spending in Chile, emphasizing the country's geographical features and high fiscal heterogeneity. We leverage balanced panel data for ten years and 307 municipalities in order to estimate the population level at which a reduction in the average cost of local public goods provision occurs and to differentiate between levels of market potential. We follow a theoretical model of cost efficiency that considers spatial interactions and spillover effects among neighboring jurisdictions. Our findings suggest that Chilean municipalities reach an optimum population level at around 700,000 inhabitants, which is high considering that only two cities qualify. When differentiating for levels of economies of scale according to levels of market potential, municipalities with a low potential reach their optimum at around 28,000 inhabitants, those with a medium potential reach it at approximately 124,000, and those with a high potential reach it at approximately 680,000.     

Production networks and international trade: China,Brazil and Mexico

In this paper, we examine and contrast the production networks in China, Brazil and Mexico. We highlight three results. First, over the last two decades, China's intensity of trade in parts and components has shifted from other members of Greater China to South Korea and ASEAN countries. Second, even though China's production network is mainly Asian, its parts and components trading partners are increasingly global. Brazil also increasingly trades its parts with China and East Asia, while Mexico is still focused on its trade with the United States. Third, Greater China has become a major source of parts and components to Mexican and Brazilian imports. We highlight the importance of such a pan-Pacific link and anticipate that the joint China–Brazil–Mexico production network will continue to grow.     

Globalization and trade union strategy: industrial restructuring and human resource management in the international civil aviation industry

For trade unions, the central problematic of globalization is the growing disparity between the mobility of capital and labour. The ability of capital to operate on a trans-national basis is widely perceived to have precipitated a process of cost cutting as international companies seek to cut workers' remuneration and other conditions of employment. However, systematic empirical evidence on the impact of globalization on human resource management is hard to find, as is any assessment of the differential impact of globalization on different occupational groups or the response of trade unions to any deterioration in their members' terms and conditions of employment. Focusing on the international civil aviation industry, we examine the effects of globalization on human resource management and the national and international strategies developed by organized labour in response. Although the evidence suggests that there is indeed a concerted effort by major airlines to cut costs, trade unions have been able to retard the pace of change and effectively defend the interests of some occupational groups. Moreover, the future course of globalization will be contested through new international strategies and repertoires of collective action developed by the trade union movement.     

The effect of trade on productivity growth and the demand for skilled workers in Canada

We use an input–output model to examine the effect of trade integration on productivity growth and the demand for skilled workers in Canada for the period 1981–1997. We find that trade integration has a positive effect on both labour productivity and total factor productivity. Labour productivity and total factor productivity grew faster in export and import industries than in the total business sector over this period, and this productivity growth gap has widened over time. Canada is found to have a comparative advantage in capital- and natural-resource-intensive industries, although it has declined over time. We find that trade integration has little effect on the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in Canada.     

Economic importance and structural robustness of the international pesticide trade networks

Pesticides are agricultural inputs that can significantly reduce yield losses, regulate plant growth, effectively liberate agricultural productivity, and improve food security. The availability of pesticides in economies worldwide is ensured by redistribution through international trade, with different economies playing different roles in this process. In this study, we measured and ranked the importance of economies using nine node metrics. We found that the clustering coefficient was negatively correlated with the other eight node metrics, whereas the other eight node metrics were positively correlated with each other and could be grouped into three communities (betweenness; in-degree, PageRank, authority, and in-closeness; out-degree, hub, and out-closeness). We further investigated the structural robustness of international pesticide trade networks proxied by large component size under three types of shocks to economies (node removal in descending, random, and ascending orders). The results showed that, except for the clustering coefficient, international pesticide trade networks are relatively robust under shocks to economies in ascending order but fragile under shocks to economies in descending order. By contrast, removing nodes with a clustering coefficient in ascending and descending order yielded similar robustness curves. Moreover, the structural robustness related to large component size evolved over time and exhibited an inverse U-shaped pattern.     

Energy Demand,Structural Change and Trade: A Decomposition Analysis of the Danish Manufacturing Industry

This paper examines the relation between trade patterns and energy consumption in manufacturing industries. An input-output decomposition method is used to decompose the change in industrial energy consumption for Denmark into six components, of which three are trade-related. Trade-induced changes in energy consumption have important implications for issues such as international distribution and regulation of energy consumption and emissions. It is shown that a structural change in foreign trade patterns can increase domestic energy demand. This is contrary, however, to what might be expected for a small industrialized country, which is presumed to export products that intensively use inputs of skilled manpower as well as research and development. Finally, calculations carried out at different levels of aggregation are compared. The findings here demonstrate the importance of large variations in energy intensities among subsectors for the calculation results.     

The performance of international returnee ventures: the role of networking capability and the usefulness of international business knowledge

This paper sheds light on the international new ventures led by returnee entrepreneurs and investigates the influence of networking capability and the usefulness of international knowledge for the overall performance of so-called international returnee ventures (IRVs). By integrating network theory with a capability view of firm performance, it advances six hypotheses that form a structural model, which is tested with LISREL on a sample of 194 IRVs from China. The findings show that international networking capability has a positive influence on the provision of international business knowledge, which in turn is positively related to the innovation performance, but they have a negative impact on the financial performance. Hence, this study presents a discussion of the usefulness of knowledge gained from the international network relationships of emerging market returnee entrepreneurs.     

Political Macroeconomics: A Survey of Recent Developments

The paper surveys political macroeconomics, covering its development from Rogoff's conservative central banker to the most recent discussions of monetary policy and institutional design. Topics include the inflation-stabilization trade-off, central bank independence with escape clauses and overruling with costs, inflation targets, performance contracts for monetary authorities, and the consequences of output persistence for these issues. Further topics are the political business cycle when output is persistent, the political macroeconomics of fiscal policy, the government spending bias, and the game-theoretic interaction between fiscal and monetary policy. All work is discussed within a coherent analytical framework.