The impact of systemic and illiquidity risk on financing with risky collateral

Repurchase agreements (repos) are one of the most important sources of funding liquidity for many financial investors and intermediaries. In a repo, some assets are given by a borrower as collateral in exchange of funding. The capital given to the borrower is the market value of the collateral, reduced by an amount termed as haircut (or margin). The haircut protects the capital lender from loss of value of the collateral contingent on the borrower׳s default. For this reason, the haircut is typically calculated with a simple Value at Risk estimation of the collateral for the purpose of preventing the risk associated to volatility. However, other risk factors should be included in the haircut and a severe undervaluation of them could result in a significant loss of value of the collateral if the borrower defaults. In this paper we present a stylized model of the financial system, which allows us to compute the haircut incorporating the liquidity risk of the collateral and, most important, possible systemic effects. These are mainly due to the similarity of bank portfolios, excessive leverage of financial institutions, and illiquidity of assets. The model is analytically solvable under some simplifying assumptions and robust to the relaxation of these assumptions, as shown through Monte Carlo simulations. We also show which are the most critical model parameters for the determination of haircuts.     

The unique dollarization case of Lebanon

We perform a thorough analysis of the unique dollarization case of Lebanon, a heavily dollarized economy with recurring public deficits and monetary financing of the public debt, together with contained inflation and a de facto fixed exchange rate lasting for more than 20 years. What makes Lebanon’s case specific is the high level of foreign currency liquidity in the hands of the banking system due to the abundant capital inflows in the last three decades, and the high levels of the central bank’s gross international reserves, contrasting with its low and sometimes negative levels of net international reserves. We shed light on a number of areas that have so far been unexplored in international finance and monetary economics, mainly the difference between gross and net international reserves and their relative fiscal costs, together with a synthetic classification of sterilization techniques. We explain the monetary “freezing” mechanism that helped contain inflation in Lebanon, despite the monetary financing of the country’s recurring public deficits. We also assess the results of Lebanon’s monetary and exchange rate policy in the last two decades, and make a number of policy recommendations in light of previous studies.     

Excess reserves during the 1930s: Empirical estimates of the costs of converting unintended cash inventory into income-producing assets

It is often argued that the persistent amounts of excess reserves in the 1934–1941 period were sought either for protective liquidity or as a signal of bank safety to depositors. More recent explanations argue that these excess reserves were unintended inventory due to the high internal adjustment costs of converting reserves to income-producing assets. Our findings support the latter explanation and reveal high internal asset adjustment costs after 1933. Thus, a monetary policy focused on increasing reserves would have been ineffective. A successful monetary policy would be one that increased outside money.(JEL G210, G280, O420) Partial funding for this paper was provided by the Kentucky EPSCoR Program. We thank Patrick Marchand, David Schutte, Fallaw Sowell, Randall Parker, and Richard Timberlake for helpful comments on this paper.     

流动性对中国商业银行业绩影响的实证研究

金融危机反映了银行在面对资金压力时持有的流动性资产不足,同时也凸显了银行流动性监管的重要性。为了建立既能够确保金融体系稳定,又能够兼顾银行盈利能力最大化目标的监管标准,有必要对银行流动性资产对业绩的影响进行实证研究,本文利用2003～2010年中国14家上市商业银行数据,检验了流动性资产对于银行业绩的影响,研究发现流动性资产和银行业绩之间存在非线性关系,而且四大国有商业银行和十家股份制商业银行流动性管理行为存在显著差异。     

环境规制、流动性风险与债务融资成本

环境规制会影响企业经营和银行对企业的风险评价,进而影响企业债务融资成本。本文以我国A股2012~2017年重污染行业上市公司为研究对象,研究了环境规制对债务融资成本的具体影响。研究结果显示,环境规制强度对重污染企业债务融资成本具有正向影响作用;且这种影响效应在小规模企业和非国有企业更加显著;进一步研究发现,环境规制通过流动性风险路径影响企业债务融资成本。本文的研究丰富了企业债务融资成本相关文献,对企业加强债务融资管理与政府实施环保政策具有一定的启示作用。     

试论2011年全国综合医院效益分析

2011年全国综合性医院运营良好,资产规模扩张快,流动资金利用力强。加强资产管理、加强成本核算,控制成本支出,提高医院管理水平,公立医院要注意医院资产借债筹资比重,私立医院应加强运用外部资金能力。     

Labor's liquidity service and firing costs

This paper studies the specific effect that firing costs can have on firms facing liquidity constraints. When firing costs are zero and a time gap exists between production and its associated revenues, firing allows firms to hold on to their liquid assets by saving on wages, and thus, allows firms to cope better with liquidity shocks when external financing is too costly or unavailable. I refer to this feature as labor's liquidity service. Higher firing costs reduces the value of labor's liquidity service, and thus, increases firms' incentive for hoarding liquidity and reduces firms' demand for production inputs. In addition to this negative effect at the creation margin of production, firing costs have a relatively higher positive effect on the destruction margin of production of financially restricted firms. This paper presents a model that develops these ideas and shows that the presence of firing costs has a stronger negative effect on the output of firms facing liquidity constraints. Regression analysis, based on country-industry panel data sets, provides empirical evidence consistent with the liquidity service effect of firing costs. I find a relatively stronger negative effect of firing costs on the output of industries with higher liquidity requirements and a relatively stronger negative effect of firing costs on the output of small, and more likely financially constrained, firms.     

The effect of firm financial characteristics and the availability of alternative finance on IPO underpricing

This article tests the hypothesis that the financial characteristics of the issuing firm, along with the availability of alternative sources of financing, are important determinants of the level of underpricing. While risk and its relationship to underpricing have been examined in previous studies, liquidity risk is unique because of its special implications for a firm’s bargaining position with the underwriter. Consistent with my hypothesis, firms with greater liquidity concerns at the IPO experience greater underpricing. On the other hand, firms with higher levels of venture capital funding and/or debt financing are more fully priced.     

Asset sale,debt restructuring,and liquidation

This paper considers a dynamic model in which shareholders of a firm in distress have a choice of whether the firm proceeds to debt restructuring or direct liquidation at an arbitrary time. In the model, we show the following results. Fewer asset sales, lower financing, debt renegotiation, and running costs, a lower premium to the debt holders, a lower cash flow volatility, and a higher initial coupon increase the shareholders׳ incentive to choose debt restructuring to avoid full liquidation. In the debt renegotiation process, the shareholders arrange the coupon reduction and use equity financing to retire a part of the debt value to the debt holders. The timing of debt restructuring always coincides with that of liquidation without debt renegotiation. Most notably, the shareholders do not prefer asset sale in debt restructuring even if they face high financing costs. The possibility of debt renegotiation in the future increases the initial leverage ratio in the optimal capital structure.     

绿色债券发行能缓解企业债务违约风险吗？——基于多期DID模型的研究

运用理论模型对企业发行不同债券时的差异性情景进行分析,提出企业的绿色债券发行对自身债务违约风险存在抑制效应,并选取2016—2020年1604家上市非金融公司的年度面板数据,基于多期DID模型进行实证检验。研究表明：企业发行绿色债券可以显著降低自身债务违约风险;企业发行绿色债券可以通过缓解融资约束、降低债务融资成本、提高股票流动性和增强绿色声誉这四个渠道降低自身的债务违约风险;外部融资依赖度高、研发支出占比低、信息披露程度高和管理者短视程度低的企业发行绿色债券可以更显著地降低自身债务违约风险。政策上应该进一步引导企业合理发行绿色债券,推动绿色金融的发展。     

负债融资对我国生物医药上市公司研发投入的影响研究

生物医药产业已经成为最具成长性的产业之一,其长周期、高风险、技术密集的行业特征使生物医药企业较一般传统企业而言面临着更甚的融资困境。论文选取2014-2018年我国生物医药行业上市公司的样本数据,分别从负债的规模、期限和来源三个方面研究负债融资对企业R&D投入的影响,研究结果表明:负债规模、短期负债、长期负债、银行借款以及商业信用均与企业R&D投入强度显著负相关。     

To What Extent Does the Interest Burden Affect Firm Survival? Evidence from a Panel of UK Firms during the Recent Financial Crisis

Using a panel of mainly unquoted UK firms over the period 2000–09, we document a significant effect of changes in the interest burden from debt‐servicing on firm survival. The effect is found to be stronger during the recent financial crisis compared with more tranquil periods. Furthermore, the survival chances of bank‐dependent, younger, and non‐exporting firms are most affected by changes in the interest burden, especially during the crisis. Our results are robust to using different estimation methods and different interest burden measures They suggest that one way for policymakers to mitigate the effects of financial crises by limiting firm failures would be to prevent financing costs from rising, especially for those firms more likely to face liquidity constraints.     

Growth option,debt maturity and cash reserves with bank-tax-interaction

In this paper, we assume a small and micro enterprise(SME, henceforth) invests in a project, of which the investment cost is funded by the private lending and the bank-tax-interaction (BTI, henceforth). We build a tractable model of optimal investment, liquidity and default decisions based on cash flows with liquidity shocks and profitability uncertainty. In contrast to the case with pure private lending, we discover that BTI delays investment and increases the firm value. Furthermore, BTI causes the SME to retain more cash reserves. We also find that the SME prefers to select the BTI as the main financing policy under the higher liquidity risk and small profitability uncertainty. Besides, the impact of debt maturity on financial policies with BTI depends on liquidity shock.     

Federal Home Loan Bank advances and bank risk

The Federal Home Loan Bank system (FHLB) has evolved into a major source of liquidity for the banking system with the demonstrated ability to borrow over a trillion dollars in world financial markets based on an implied U. S. Treasury guarantee. The FHLB loans the borrowed funds to commercial banks at reduced rates that are not adjusted for the risk of an individual bank. Moral hazard could cause member banks using FHLB loans to increase financial leverage and exposure to high risk assets. Conversely, the FHLB offers banks additional liquidity and specialized debt instruments that help them manage interest rate risk. We use dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimation to test the relation between FHLB advances and bank risk. We find that if banks have relatively normal default probabilities, advances are not associated with increased bank risk but, instead, advances are related to decreased interest rate risk. However, when bank default probabilities are high, our evidence suggests advances and higher bank risk are related.     

Corporate commitment to climate change action,carbon risk exposure,and a firm's debt financing policy

Motivated by the rising consensus that corporate engagement in climate change actions holds the key for society's transition into environmentally resilient economy, the study examines whether a firm's commitment to climate change action and its carbon risk exposure shape the firm's debt financing policy. Based on insights drawn from signaling, corporate reputation, and agency theories, we develop models that link corporate commitment to climate change actions and a firm's carbon risk exposure with its debt financing decisions. Using data drawn from S&P 500 companies, for years 2015 to 2019, we find a robust evidence that firms that engage in higher levels of commitment to climate change actions issue a higher proportion of debt with longer terms to maturity, even after controlling for their carbon risk exposure. However, we do not find a robust evidence corroborating an association between firms' carbon risk exposure and their debt financing policy. These findings are consistent with arguments that high-commitment firms enjoy positive reputation, better credit rating, and reduced agency and information asymmetry costs, allowing them to gain easier access to long-term debt markets.     

中小企业债务融资与公司价值关系研究——基于中小板上市公司的实证研究

中小企业在我国经济社会发展中具有重要的战略地位,但是融资难问题却一直制约着中小企业的发展。文章以2010年到2012年我国中小企业板上市公司的数据为研究依据,进行实证检验,分析我国中小企业债务融资与企业价值的关系。研究发现,中小企业的债务融资与企业价值有着显著的正相关关系,尤其是银行借款融资对企业价值起到了积极的作用。因此,我国中小企业应该增加债务融资,尤其是增加银行借款融资的比重。所以,解决中小企业融资难、贷款难的问题刻不容缓。这篇文章旨在为我国中小企业进行融资以及政府的扶持提供具有一定参考价值的数据支持。     

Real options and contingent convertibles with regime switching

We consider a firm with no assets in place but an option to invest in a project. The investment is irreversible but delayable in a regime-switching economy. The firm issues equity, straight bonds (SBs) and contingent convertibles (CoCos). We provide the closed-form prices for the firm׳s securities and the pricing and timing of the option. Our numerical analyses discover that issuing CoCos instead of SBs induces much less agency cost of debt. The agency cost is higher in a boom economy than in recession but the difference is small. There is a unique CoCos׳ conversion ratio such that the agency cost arrives at the minimum value zero. The inefficiencies arising from asset substitution and debt overhang are much more significant in recession than in boom. Only if the conversion ratio is not too small, the two inefficiencies disappear during boom periods. While the effects of the conversion rate on optimal capital structure and firm value and those of supervision and jump intensity on optimal CoCos׳ coupon are ambiguous and weak, the stricter the supervision or the longer the economy remains in recession, the less the option value and the optimal SBs׳ coupon.     

Interest on reserves,policy rules and quantitative easing

Hundred percent reserve transaction banking system is proposed with tax-free interest on demand deposits and interest bearing reserves. To eliminate shadow banking arrangements, a 100% tax on net interest income is proposed for limited liability businesses. All financing of businesses would be mutual as currently most is. With this arrangement there would be no bank runs associated giving rise to a financial crisis.     

Bank capital regulation,loan contracts,and corporate investment

This paper studies the link between bank capital regulation, bank loan contracts and the allocation of corporate resources across firms’ different business lines. Credit risk is lower when firms write contracts that oblige them to invest mainly into projects with highly tangible assets. We argue that firms have an incentive to choose a contract with overly safe and thus inefficient investments when intermediation costs are increasing in banks’ capital-to-asset ratio. Imposing minimum capital adequacy for banks can eliminate this incentive by putting a lower bound on financing costs.     

基于动态VaR模型的我国银行间拆借市场风险度量研究

本文介绍了一种基于GARCH和非参数法的动态VaR模型——L_VaR模型,用来度量市场风险与流动性风险两者综合风险的大小。并通过采样我国银行间隔夜拆借的高频交易数据,以及SAS软件的数据处理分析发现,GARCH（1,1）模型能较好地拟合隔夜拆借利率的波动情况,而非参数估计法（Boot- strap）能较准确地估计拆借市场流动性的波动水平。实证结果表明。基于动态VaR模型对于市场风险与流动性风险两者综合风险的短期预测效果较为理想。