The employment effect of changes in the composition of fiscal consolidations

This paper assesses the magnitude and nature of fiscal consolidation policies and their impact on employment. In particular, in an attempt to address fiscal imbalances in the near term, countries have been faced with the delicate challenge of doing so without damaging recovery prospects and thus, counter to their original aim, worsening further public finances. In this regard, the paper reviews recent austerity measures adopted by governments and discusses how prolonging fiscal consolidation measures in their current form could be counterproductive for guaranteeing debt sustainability. Moreover, the article shows how poorly designed fiscal cuts – directly or indirectly affecting labour – seem to have been dampening job prospects. The paper sheds light on how fiscal and employment goals can be achieved together. More specifically, it finds that a fiscally-neutral change in the expenditure and revenue composition of fiscal consolidation can boost job creation. In this sense, the paper shows that it is imperative to find the right policy mix and recommends countries to be mindful of the nature and pace of consolidation.     

地方财政行为是否驱动了中国贸易 收支的动态调整*——基于异质性动态调整模型的分析

本文利用1997-2013年中国省际层面的面板数据，借助异质性动态调整模型从动态视角考察了地方财政行为对中国贸易收支调整速度的影响。研究结果显示：（1）平均而言，在地方财政行为的驱动下，中国实际贸易收支向最优水平动态调整的速度约为0045。总体表明，地方财政行为对中国贸易收支的驱动性影响较弱，引致实际贸易收支向最优水平调整的速度也较为缓慢。（2）财政支出分权的强化会制约贸易收支的调整速度，贸易收支调整呈现“相对惰性”。财政收入分权的提高和预算内财政支出的扩张能够加快实际贸易收支向最优贸易收支调整的速度，助力贸易收支实现平滑调整。预算外财政支出和财政收入的变化对调整速度则不会产生显著性影响。（3）贸易收支的调整速度呈现显著的区域异质性。本文的结论表明，现阶段中国要实现贸易收支的平衡调整路径，中央及地方政府必须把握好财政行为与贸易收支的动态联动关系。     

Fiscal consolidation with high growth: A policy simulation model for India

In this paper a fiscal consolidation program for India has been presented based on a policy simulation model that enables us to examine the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies, given certain assumptions about other macro policy choices and relevant exogenous factors. The model is then used to estimate the outcomes resulting from a possible strategy of fiscal consolidation in the base case. The exercise shows that it is possible to have fiscal consolidation while at the same time maintaining high GDP growth of around 8% or so. The strategy is to gradually bring down the revenue deficit to zero by 2014–15, while allowing a combined fiscal deficit for centre plus states of about 6% of GDP. This provides the space for substantial government capital expenditure, which translates to a significant public investment program. This in turn leads to high overall investment directly and indirectly, via the crowding in effect on private investment, which drives the high GDP growth. The exercise has also tested the robustness of this strategy under two alternative scenarios of higher and lower advanced country growth compared to the base case.     

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth Nexus in India: A Simultaneous Error Correction Approach

This paper examines the impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth in India, during the period from 1970–71 to 2018–19. Using a combination of Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Simultaneous Error Correction Approach, this study shows that fiscal deficit and revenue deficit have an adverse effect on economic growth both in the long run and in the short run. The empirical analysis confirms that fiscal deficit influences economic growth both directly, and indirectly through the routes of investment, interest rate, current account deficit and composition of government expenditure. Further, gross investment has a positive and inflation rate has a negative impact on economic growth. For a policy perspective, the government should control fiscal deficit and revenue deficit as suggested by the FRBM Act. The composition of government expenditure should be altered to devote more resources for the formation of productive capital in India.

     

The dynamics of municipal fiscal adjustment

The dynamic fiscal policy adjustment of local jurisdictions is investigated empirically using a panel of more than 1000 U.S. municipalities over a quarter of a century. Distinguishing own-source revenue, grants, expenditures, and debt service, the analysis is carried out using a vector error-correction model which takes account of the intertemporal budget constraint. The results indicate that a large part of the adjustment in response to fiscal imbalances takes place by offsetting changes in future expenditures. In addition, the results show that fiscal imbalances are financed to a significant extent by subsequent changes in grants. Decomposition of the sample according to average city population reveals that the basic pattern of fiscal adjustment is robust, although intergovernmental grants play a much more pronounced role in maintaining budget balance for large cities.     

Fiscal policy and national saving

This paper uses structural vector autoregressions along with structural measures of fiscal policy to measure the dynamic impact of fiscal policy shocks on the output gap and national saving. Positive shocks to government purchases and negative shocks to real net taxes are found to increase the output gap. Positive shocks to the government's structural surplus increases national saving although the effects are small. Positive shocks to government purchases are found to substantially reduce national saving. Negative shocks to real net tax revenues as a share of potential GDP have a small negative impact on national saving.     

Austerity and Exports

Recent papers have focused attention on the potential for expansionary austerity (i.e. that cutting budget deficits may increase growth in the short run). In this paper we investigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on trade using bilateral trade data. The use of bilateral trade data allows us to demonstrate three novel empirical results. First, while fiscal consolidation is associated with an increase in own‐country exports, it is also correlated to an equal extent with a decrease in foreign‐country exports (i.e. imports); indeed, simultaneous austerity has no statistically significant impact on bilateral trade. Second, the positive effect of austerity on exports disappears when trading partners share a common currency. Third, the increase in exports as a result of austerity is associated entirely with an increase in the range of goods exported (the extensive margin), at the expense of trade volume among existing trade relationships (the intensive margin).     

How Does Fiscal Consolidation Impact on Income Inequality?

In this paper, we assess the impact of fiscal consolidation on income inequality. Using a panel of 18 industrialized countries from 1978 to 2009, we find that income inequality significantly rises during periods of fiscal consolidation. In addition, while fiscal policy that is driven by spending cuts seems to be detrimental for income distribution, tax hikes seem to have an equalizing effect. We also show that the size of the fiscal consolidation program (in percentage of GDP) has an impact on income inequality. In particular, when consolidation plans represent a small share of GDP, the income gap widens, suggesting that the burden associated with the effort affects disproportionately households at the bottom of the income distribution. Considering the linkages between banking crises and fiscal consolidation, we find that the effect on the income gap is amplified when fiscal adjustments take place after the resolution of such financial turmoil. Similarly, fiscal consolidation programs combined with inflation are likely to increase inequality and the effects of fiscal adjustments on inequality are amplified during periods of relatively low growth. Our results also provide support for a non‐linear relationship between inequality and income and corroborate the idea that trade can promote a more equal distribution of income.     

Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East,Prudent Man!

The European Union accepted 10 new member states (NMS) in 2004, eight of which were former socialist countries. New members have had to adjust their economic policies to EU standards. Perhaps most difficult has been fiscal policy, where NMS must comply with the Stability and Growth Pact rules. Indeed, four of the eight post-communist NMS breached the SGP limits and were put in the Excessive Deficit Procedure. While the SGP is being modified, fiscal policy is set to remain on the agenda for all NMS.

This article analyses fiscal policy in the eight NMS, focusing primarily on the period immediately preceding their EU accession. The structure and scale of these countries' fiscal policy are analysed and the main trends in the revenue and expenditure of their public budgets identified. Then the dynamics of fiscal policies in the NMS are explored and the main factors in them isolated. The authors show how much of the consolidation was due to the fiscal authorities' effort and how much was caused by external factors. They also show that most NMS governments have run rather inconsistent fiscal policies and have not consolidated their budgets appropriately, postponing politically difficult consolidation measures. However, they also identify a group of countries characterised by strong reform efforts and responsible fiscal policy making, supported usually by strong economic growth. In this context, room is given to economic as well as political economy factors.     

地方政府财政支出的结构偏异——基于跨界公共事务的视角*

本文通过理论分析发现,我国地方政府不仅存在生产性支出偏好,还会在外部性和信息不对称等因素影响下,改变其对跨界公共事务的资金投入。在“量入为出”预算编制原则下,本文利用2010—2019年我国31个省级政府面板数据,实证分析了地方政府一般公共预算收入对跨地区民生性支出、跨地区生产性支出、地区民生性支出和地区生产性支出四类财政支出的影响。结果表明：在全国层面上,跨地区生产性支出受财政收入的影响最大,地区民生性支出次之。比较三类地区的结果发现,区域内政府竞争强度越高,地方政府对外部性的重视程度越强,因而当地用于跨界公共事务的资金会越少。从不同类型财政收入对财政支出的影响结果来看,只有间接税收入可以同时对三类地区财政支出产生显著影响。最后根据研究结论,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

湘西州财税收入与经济增长的关系研究

以湘西州为切入点,从湘西州税收收入、财政收入现状及其与湖南省内其他城市以及周边城市的对比,分析了湘西州目前的收入负担现状;论述了湘西州财政收入与经济增长的关系,并通过数据之间的计量分析得出了湘西州财政收入的增长与经济增长呈负相关的结论,提出了相关的政策建议。     

The contribution of equalization transfers to fiscal adjustment: Empirical results for German municipalities and a US–German comparison

This paper considers the role of fiscal equalization in maintaining fiscal balance. It employs a large panel of German municipalities in order to investigate the dynamic fiscal policy adjustment using a vector-error–correction model that explicitly takes account of the intertemporal budget constraint. The results confirm that a substantial part of fiscal adjustment to revenue shocks takes place by offsetting changes in intergovernmental transfers: in present-value terms about 34 cents of a permanent 1 € decrease in own revenues are compensated by subsequent changes in fiscal-equalization transfers. Hence, the contribution of intergovernmental transfers in maintaining fiscal balance is found to be two to three times larger than in the case of US municipalities investigated by Buettner and Wildasin [Buettner, T., Wildasin, D.E., 2006. The dynamics of municipal fiscal adjustment. Journal of Public Economics 90, 1115–1132]. Despite fiscal equalization, however, expenditures are not found to display smaller fluctuations in the German case.     

Turning the page? EU fiscal consolidation in the wake of the crisis

The fiscal cost of the financial and economic crisis in Europe is huge. The paper provides provisional estimates of this cost and looks at its implications for the sustainability of public finances, taking into account also the impact of aging populations. The historical experience suggests that economic growth is persistently lowered in the aftermath of financial crisis, making fiscal consolidation more difficult yet all the more essential. Meanwhile the timing of the exit from fiscal stimulus and subsequent fiscal consolidation must reconcile sustainability and stabilisation goals—a delicate balancing act. The paper will argue in favour of structural reform to boost the economic growth potential alongside fiscal consolidation. The fiscal coordination framework in the EU, together with the Europe 2020 strategy, is seen to underpin this approach.     

Fiscal policy and asset price volatility

This paper investigates the relationship between volatility of different asset prices and the volatility of various indicators of fiscal policy (primary balance, spending and revenue). We find evidence that asset price volatility affects the volatility of fiscal policy stance in a positive and significant way. The effect comes primarily through residential property and equity price volatility on government revenue and spending. Increased volatility in commercial property prices is associated with increased variability of government revenue. Output growth volatility is the dominant determinant of revenue and primary balance variability, whereas bad budgetary conditions and the size of the public sector are the most significant determinants of spending variability. Trade openness leads to greater variability of government spending, revenue and primary balance to GDP ratios.     

Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs

In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic effects of alternative fiscal consolidation policies in the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM), a two-country open-economy model of the euro area developed at the European Central Bank (cf. [Coenen, G., McAdam, P., Straub, R., in press. Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model. Forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control]). We model fiscal consolidation as a permanent reduction in the targeted government debt-to-output ratio and analyse both expenditure and revenue-based policies that are implemented by means of simple fiscal feedback rules. We find that fiscal consolidation has positive long-run effects on key macroeconomic aggregates such as output and consumption, notably when the resulting improvement in the budgetary position is used to lower distortionary taxes. At the same time, fiscal consolidation gives rise to noticeable short-run adjustment costs in contrast to what the literature on expansionary fiscal consolidations suggests. Moreover, depending on the fiscal instrument used, fiscal consolidation may have pronounced distributional effects.     

Resource Price,Macroeconomic Distortions,and Public Outlay: Evidence from Oil-Exporting Countries

This study examines the repercussions of oil price and macroeconomic distortions on government expenditure in 15 oil-exporting countries. Adapting the Pooled Mean Group analytical approach, the long-run findings are indicative of a blend of the Dutch disease and rent-seeking hypothesis of the resource curse theory in oil-exporting countries. These effects crucially impact on the poor growth of the real sector in these countries, needed for diversification of their revenue base. Furthermore, both resource curses account for one of the reasons why fiscal deficits in oil-exporting countries have been on the rise. The country short-run coefficient for the balance of payment, economic growth, and exchange rate also supports the Dutch disease and rent-seeking hypothesis mix found in the long run. Also, the significant negative impact of oil rents in most countries shows that oil-exporting countries have been making attempts at diversifying their income sources; this is because proceeds from oil cannot be relied upon to adequately finance growing government expenditure, due to the volatile nature of oil prices, thus suggesting also that the volatility hypothesis is valid for most oil-exporting countries in the short run.     

What determines public education expenditures in Russia?1

Recent studies suggest that the allocation of expenditures in education is important for growth. The state of public education spending in many transition economies highlights the need for an assessment of the nature of education expenditures in these countries. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by estimating the determinants of education expenditures in the Russian Federation. Results from panel data analysis show that revenue and the student‐population ratio have a positive impact on education expenditures while the effect of population density is negative. Three regional variables also show significant impact. The income and price elasticity of public education expenditures are estimated to be 0.57 and ?0.18, respectively, a result comparable to studies from other countries. The results presented here provide insight into how fiscal institutions and the structure of the political process in Russia may affect the degree of resource allocation in the educational sector during the transition process.     

Fiscal multipliers in downturns and the effects of Euro Area consolidation

We estimate the impact of the fiscal consolidation actions in the Euro Area between 2011 and 2013 on output and public finances. We identify the discretionary fiscal consolidation effort based on new data by the European Commission. We combine these data with robust estimates from a rich meta-regression analysis on multipliers for various fiscal measures under different business cycle regimes. The frontloaded consolidation came at a considerable cost with an output loss of 7.7% and only a small gain to the primary balance of 0.2% of GDP. Backloading would have been much less costly due to lower multipliers.     

The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the Euro area. The model takes into account distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption, while expenditures are broken down into purchases of goods and services, compensation of public employees and transfers to households. A newly computed quarterly data set of fiscal variables is used. Our results point to the prevalence of mild Keynesian effects of public expenditures. In particular, although innovations in fiscal policy variables tend to be rather persistent, government purchases of goods and services and compensations for public employees have small and short-lived expansionary effects on private consumption, while innovations in transfers to households show a slightly more sizeable and lasting effect. The effects are more significant on the revenue side: decreases in labor income and consumption tax rates have sizeable effects on consumption and output, while a reduction in capital income tax favors investment and output in the medium run. Finally our estimates suggest that fiscal policy variables contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables.     

Fiscal policy and economic activity in South Asia

This paper analyzes whether fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies or smoothens business cycle fluctuations. It estimates several econometric models to explore the cyclicality of government spending and tax buoyancy. In South Asia, tax revenue increases less than one to one with changes in gross domestic product (GDP), but public spending increases more than proportionally. For each percentage point change in GDP growth, government expenditure changes by 1.3 percentage points. While changes in tax revenue have no significant impact on economic activity, the government spending multiplier is positive and significant: each additional US dollar (USD) of spending leads to an immediate increase in GDP of 0.2 USD and to an increase of 0.4 USD in the medium run. The impact of public spending on economic activity is entirely due to capital expenditure, which is also more procyclical. Procyclical public spending and a positive expenditure multiplier imply that fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies boom‐and‐bust cycles. These results are in line with those of other emerging markets and developing economies and robust to different model specifications and estimation strategies.