新古典模型中收入和财富分配持续不平等的动态演化

本文讨论了当个人劳动能力和偏好存在差异的情况下，资本收入和劳动收入分配的差异如何通过遗产机制影响收入和财富分配的持续性不平等程度。论文分析表明：在偏好、个人劳动能力和个人收入的随机冲击的影响下，如果市场是完善的，整个经济系统存在收入和财富分配的稳定不平等状态，而且，这种稳定的不平等状态与初始的财富分配的不平等和一次性的产权配置都是无关的。最后，本文分析了资本收入税和劳动收入税对持续不平等程度的影响，通过分析指出：从长期来看，在劳动能力和初始财富存在差异而偏好没有差异的情况下，征收劳动收入税比征收资本收入税更有利于改善由于能力差异所造成的持续不平等。     

Loss aversion in aggregate macroeconomic time series

Prospect theory has been the focus of increasing attention in many fields of economics. However, it has scarcely been addressed in macroeconomic growth models—neither on theoretical nor on empirical grounds. In this paper we use prospect theory in a stochastic optimal growth model. Thereafter, the focus lies on linking the Euler equation obtained from a prospect theory growth model of this kind to real macroeconomic data. We will use generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to test the implications of such a non-linear prospect utility Euler equation. Our results indicate that loss aversion can be traced in aggregate macroeconomic time series.     

Inflationary Financing of Government Expenditure in an Endogenous Growth Model

This paper analyses the role of inflation in economies with endogenous growth and congestion in public services. Optimal policy rules are derived for public services and investment. The other findings are as follows. Monetary policy should maximize economic growth. The more inefficient the public sector is, the higher the growth‐maximizing inflation rate is. If a currency union accepts a new member with an inefficient public sector, this will boost inflation in the union and decrease growth and welfare in all member economies of the union.     

Income taxes, spending composition and long-run growth

The focus of this paper is threefold. First, it reexamines the impact on long-run growth of changes in flat-rate income taxes when a fraction of total government expenditures is used to provide public services that affect the productivity of privately held inputs. Second, for a given tax policy, this paper studies the impact of government expenditure composition on the rate of economic growth. Third, since demographics follow an overlapping generations structure and fiscal policy affects the economy's productivity, the paper features the role of productivity as a means of redistributing income across generations. The economy is analyzed numerically and policy experiments are carried out.     

Fiscal Transfers and Distributive Conflict in a Simple Endogenous Growth Model with Unemployment

Abstract. In the simplified formal treatment proposed in this paper, a decrease in a policy parameter – the ratio of total tax revenues to GDP – can monotonically increase long-term growth rate and may lead to a higher employment level. This notwithstanding, the paper shows that the redistributive implications of such a decrease may induce the wage earners to oppose it. As a consequence, policy-makers reflecting social preferences may undertake redistributive transfers generating persistent unemployment and lowering growth even if commitment technologies allowing them to follow preannounced tax policies were feasible.     

Growth, habit formation, and catching-up with the Joneses

When habits are introduced multiplicatively in a capital accumulation model, the consumers’ objective function might fail to be concave. In this paper, we provide conditions aimed at guaranteeing the existence of interior solutions to the consumers’ problem. We also characterize the equilibrium path of two growth models with multiplicative habits: the internal habit formation model, where individual habits coincide with own past consumption, and the external habit formation (or catching-up with the Joneses) model, where habits arise from the average past consumption in the economy. We show that the introduction of external habits makes the equilibrium path inefficient. We characterize in this context the optimal tax policy.     

Debt, deficits and finite horizons: The stochastic case

We introduce aggregate uncertainty and complete markets into Blanchard's (1985) perpetual youth model. We derive a simple expression for the pricing kernel that can be used to close a variety of equilibrium models in which the set of agents changes over time.     

GROWTH AND CYCLES, IN THE MODE OF MARX AND SCHUMPETER

I propose a theory of endogenous growth and cycles under competitive conditions. Firms choose how many workers to hire, how much to invest, and which technologies to use. New capacity, embodying labor-saving technologies, is costlier than old one but allows for a lower wage bill. The interaction between labor-saving innovations and changes in the relative price of labor is the source of growth cycles.     

A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market

An optimizing model of a small open emerging market economy (SOEME) with dualistic labor markets and two types of consumers, delivers a tractable model for monetary policy. Differences between the SOEME and the SOE are derived. Parameters depend on features of the labor market and on consumption inequality, and affect the natural interest rate, terms of trade and potential output. The supply curve turns out to be flatter and more volatile, with a larger number of shift factors, including policy-determined terms of trade. A simple basic version of the model is simulated in order to compare different policy targets in response to a cost shock. Flexible domestic inflation targeting gives the lowest volatility although there are trade-offs. Exchange rate volatility is relatively lower but still makes a major contribution to controlling inflation. Flexible CPI inflation targeting performs better when combined with some kind of managed floating. Inflation targeting has to be flexible. With more backward-looking behavior the policy response to a shock is reduced.     

Taxation In The Two‐Sector Neoclassical Growth Model With Sector‐Specific Externalities And Endogenous Labour Supply*

This paper examines the long‐run impacts of selective (or sector‐specific) commodity, payroll, and profit taxes in a two‐sector endogenous growth model with sector‐specific production externalities, in which one sector produces consumption goods and the other produces investment goods. The novelty of the model is that it allows not only for endogenous labour supply but also for the intersectoral allocation of resources, which may together lead to indeterminacy. We analytically show that the stability properties of the long‐run equilibrium critically affect the long‐run effects of these selective taxes, which may reverse the standard results of the growth effects of distortionary taxes.     

Stochastic Growth and Factor Income Risk

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of aggregate factor income risk in a tractable version of the stochastic Romer endogenous growth model. Labor supply is endogenous. The presence of labor income risk unambiguously increases savings and growth due to precautionary motives. Households not only underaccumulate but also work less along the balanced growth path of the competitive economy when compared with the Pareto-efficient allocation. The paper also discusses distributive disturbances for the case of inelastic labor supply. Here, growth effects are negative for empirically plausible correlations of the underlying shocks.     

Growth, income distribution, and fiscal policy volatility

The relationship between income distribution and economic growth has long been an important economic research subject. Despite substantial evidence on the negative impact on long-term growth of inequality in the literature, however, there is not much consensus on the specific channels through which inequality affects growth. The empirical validity of two most prominent political economy channels - redistributive fiscal spending and taxes, and sociopolitical instability - has recently been challenged. We advance a new political economy channel for the negative link between inequality and growth, a fiscal policy volatility channel, and present strong supporting econometric evidence in a large sample of countries over the period of 1960-2000. Our finding also sheds light on another commonly observed negative relation between macroeconomic volatility and growth. We carefully address the robustness of the results in terms of data, estimation methods, outlier problem, and endogeneity problem that often plague the standard OLS (ordinary least squares) regression.     

Preference shifts and the change of consumption composition

While most of the literature explaining the change in consumption composition has focused on the role of relative prices and non-homothetic preferences, this paper examines the importance of preference shifts. I introduce dynamics in preferences and find that they play a relevant role and that their exclusion worsens model performance at least as much as the exclusion of allowing non-homothetic preferences.     

Walrasian General Equilibrium Allocations and Dynamics in Two-Sector Growth Models

This paper analyzes and solves miniature Walrasian general equilibrium systems of momentary and moving equilibria. The Walrasian framework encompasses the fundamental neoclassical and classical two‐sector growth models; the families of solutions of steady‐state and persistent growth per capita in various competitive two‐sector economies are parametrically characterized. Moreover, the endogenous behavior of relative prices and the sectoral allocation of primary factors are analyzed in detail. The technology parameters of the capital good industry are decisive for obtaining long‐run per capita growth in closed (global) economies. A review of the literature complements the theorems on the general equilibrium allocations, dynamic systems, and the time paths of Walrasian two‐sector economies.     

Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence

This paper deals with transition mechanisms through which financial market conditions affect real economic growth in the Euro area. The informational content of financial variables for predicting real economic growth is assessed, allowing for asymmetric responses to shocks. A nonlinear framework is developed based on a smooth transition model for which the effects of shocks can vary across business cycles when financial indicators modify both the endogenous and state variables. Global financial variables are shown to significantly affect real growth in the Euro area, particularly during periods of recession. Changes in stock market index and yield slope have asymmetric effects on real growth. In recessionary periods, the slope of the US yield curve does not have a significant impact on growth in the Euro area.     

Currency substitution, portfolio diversification, and money demand

Abstract .  We extend the Thomas (1985) dynamic optimizing model of money demand and currency substitution to the case in which the individual has restricted or no access to foreign currency denominated bonds. In this case currency substitution decisions and asset substitution decisions are not separable. The results obtained suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of currency substitution. Applying this approach to six Latin-American countries, we find evidence of currency substitution in Colombia, Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, but not in Brazil and Chile.     

Variable factor shares, measurement and growth accounting

Recent evidence shows that factor shares are not constant. Consequently, growth accounting exercises rely on a false assumption and a measurement problem arises. We propose an empirical methodology to solve the measurement issue and estimate TFP growth.     

Unemployment, Factor Substitution and Capital Formation

Abstract. We incorporate a wage-bargaining structure in a dynamic general equilibrium model and show how this feature changes short- and long-run properties of equilibria compared with a perfectly competitive setting. We discuss how employment, capital and income shares respond to wage-setting shocks and show that adjustment dynamics depend decisively on the magnitude of the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital. Values of the elasticity below unity add persistence, tend to preserve stability and lead to empirically plausible adjustment patterns. By contrast, values above unity introduce additional volatility, thereby making steady states potentially unstable.