On estimation of almost ideal demand system using moving blocks bootstrap and pairs bootstrap methods

This paper applies a bootstrap method to the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) proposed by Deaton and Muellbauer (Am Econ Rev 70:312–326, 1980), where the moving blocks bootstrap (MBB) and pairs bootstrap (PB) methods are adopted taking into account serially correlated error terms and limited dependent variables (note that the dependent variables in the AIDS model lie on the interval between zero and one). We aim to obtain the empirical distribution of the expenditure and price elasticities. Note that, the expenditure and price elasticities are obtained using the parameter estimates included in the AIDS model. In the past, a few studies report both the elasticity estimates and their standard errors obtained from the Delta method, but most of studies show only the elasticity estimates (i.e., statistical tests have not been done in most of the past studies). Applying MBB and PB methods to the AIDS model and using Japanese monthly household expenditure data from January, 1975 to December, 2012, we show in this paper that a few elasticities are statistically insignificant. We also compare the standard errors based on the bootstrap method with those based on the Delta method. We obtain the results that the differences between the Delta method and the bootstrap method are not negligible. In addition, the validity of the linear approximated AIDS (LA–AIDS) model which is commonly used in empirical studies is examined. In consequence, we find that the LA–AIDS model shows a poor performance, compared with the AIDS model, because the LA–AIDS model yields inconsistency on the elasticity estimates.     

Evolutionary economics and the case for a constitutional libertarian paternalism—a comment on Martin Binder, “should evolutionary economists embrace libertarian paternalism?”

In his article “Should evolutionary economists embrace libertarian paternalism?”(Journal of Evolutionary Economics 24(3), 2014, 515–539) Martin Binder discusses the pros and cons of “libertarian paternalism” (LP) from an explicitly evolutionary viewpoint, concluding that as a general rule, evolutionary economists should be cautious regarding this new and highly influential policy approach. In this comment I argue that Binder starts from an incomplete model of the institutional status quo and neglects an obvious alternative to the standard variant of LP, namely, a constitutionally constrained LP. Most of Binder’s objections do not apply with equal force to such a refined variant of LP.     

A note concerning the proposed emasculation of the legal services corporation

In its frenzy to dismantle the New Deal and Great Society programs of past progressive administrations, the Reagan administration has taken a special interest in the emasculation of the Legal Services Corporation. This should come as no great surprise.Then Governor Reagan and thethen Legal Services Program became immediate adversaries at the time of the program's inception. The purpose in this paper is to examine the pending emasculation of this instrumentality of legal reform in the context of structural changes elsewhere in the American legal profession.     

Supermarket responses to Wal-Mart Supercenter expansion: a structural approach

The impact of Wal-Mart in lowering incumbents’ retail prices has been well documented by previous studies using reduced form models. This article uses a structural model to examine the pricing behavior and promotion responses of incumbent supermarkets to a rapid expansion of Wal-Mart Supercenters (WMS) using the Dallas–Fort Worth milk market as a case study. Empirical results verify that WMS expansion disciplines incumbent supermarkets by decreasing oligopoly power and numbing consumer responsiveness to promotion. In addition, WMS expansion lures away price-sensitive consumers, leaving incumbent supermarkets to face more price-inelastic but lower demands for milk.     

Estimating the Markov-switching almost ideal demand systems: a Bayesian approach

Allias and Nichèle (Eur Rev Agric Econ, 34(4):517–538, 2007) proposed a Markov-switching almost ideal demand system (MS-AIDS) model by extending the idea of Hamilton (Econometrica, 57(2):357–384, 1989). In this paper, we propose a Bayesian estimation for MS-AIDS model and illustrate applicability of our proposed method. We then run two sets of simulation studies to confirm the validity of the proposed method. In the empirical study on the Japanese meat market, our Bayesian estimation improves the MSEs for all meat products over the ML estimation, while successfully capturing the regime shifts of meat demand coinciding with the timing of bovine spongiform encephalopathy cases in Japan and US.     

Inflation,relative prices and household saving behavior

This article contains tests for the direct effects of inflation on household saving. Empirical results with cross-country data from five OECD countries indicate that both unanticipated and anticipated inflation affect the household savings ratio. This latter result, which furthermore turns out to be robust in terms of aggregation and additional variables, is clearly at variance with some previous analyses, particularly those of Deaton.     

The influence of money on prices in 14 OECD countries 1958–1975

A simple monetarist model is specified which has a reduced form relating the rate of change of prices to lagged price changes and current and lagged rates of change of money supply. The reduced form is estimated for 14 OECD countries using quarterly data for 1958–1975 and the stability of the estimated equations is examined. A policy of a constant rate of growth of money supply is found to imply a cyclical or fluctuating adjustment in the rate of price change.     

The impact of science and technology parks on firms’ product innovation: empirical evidence from Spain

Science and Technology Parks (STP) have attracted considerable attention and public funds in recent years. However, the conclusions on their effectiveness remain mixed. This work evaluates the impact of STP on firm product innovation in the Spanish context, as an example of a less developed innovation system in which regional and national governments are prioritizing STP initiatives. This work draws on a large sample of firms provided by the Spanish Survey on Technological Innovation that is conducted annually by the National Statistical Institute. We explore alternative econometric methods to obtain average treatment effects for firms located in 22 Spanish STPs. Our results show that Spanish STPs have a strong and positive impact on the probability and amount of product innovation achieved by STP located firms. These results hold when the endogeneity of STP location is taken into account.     

Modeling equilibrium trends and interventions in commodity markets

The monthly spot prices in the international tin and copper and U.S. domestic lead markets are modeled based on the “supply of storage” concept. In all cases the lag-1 natural logS/C (stocks/consumption) was highly important in the final fitted equation. For copper and lead, trend directions in the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators modified theS/C dependency. Disaggregation of the tin stocks showed the special model sensitivity to the level of the ITC buffer stock. The underlying econometric models are used to estimate the price intervention effects of international political-economic crises, and commodity producer cartel actions.     

Taking,giving, and impure altruism in dictator games

We show that, if giving is equivalent to not taking, impure altruism could account for List’s (in Journal of Political Economy 115(3):482–493, 2007) finding that the payoff to recipients in a dictator game decreases when the dictator has the option to take. We examine behavior in dictator games with different taking options but equivalent final payoff possibilities. We find that recipients tend to earn more as the amount the dictator must take to achieve a given final payoff increases, a result consistent with the hypothesis that the cold prickle of taking is stronger than the warm glow of giving. We conclude that not taking is not equivalent to giving and agree with List (in Journal of Political Economy 115(3):482–493, 2007) that the current social preference models fail to rationalize the observed data.     

Inflation and interest rates: Some time series evidence from 6 OECD countries

This study examines the time series properties of inflation and interest rates variables using monthly data from 6 OECD countries covering the period 1972.1–1984.8. The analysis focuses on the hypotheses that real rates of interest are constant over time and that movements in nomial rates can be explained by inflation only. These hypotheses are tested by applying both formal and informal test procedures and by carrying out tests both in the time and in the frequency domain. On the whole, the empirical evidence is at variance with these hypotheses. Only in the case of the United States do the results lend some support for the existence of the Fisher relationship.     

Understanding the culture of markets: A reflection

This essay examines Virgil Storr’s (2013) Understanding the Culture of Markets, particularly the relationship between cultures and constitutions and the particulars of the ideal-typical ‘spirit’ of capitalism. Culture cannot be viewed as a constitution, I argue, because of fundamental differences between the two types of guidance to conduct, both for the actors within them and the researchers studying them. I also consider possibly conflicting interpretations of the idea of the animating spirit(s) of a market in the context of Storr’s example of the economic culture of the Bahamas.     

Meta-Modeling and Benefit Transfer: The Empirical Relevance of Source-Consistency in Welfare Measures

A common assumption within the meta-analysis and benefit transfer literature is that the validity of benefit predictions depends on the utility-theoretic consistency of welfare measures in underlying source studies. However, to date there exists little evidence as to the empirical relevance of this proposition in terms of the accuracy or efficiency of predicted benefits. Using Bayesian Model Search techniques we examine whether different portions of metadata, distinguished by underlying welfare construct, share common willingness-to-pay distributions. Applying our algorithm to two separate meta-datasets we find strong evidence of information sharing across welfare categories for a large subset of contexts. For cases where information sharing is indicated, substantial efficiency gains in predicted benefits can be achieved by pooling the underlying data.     

Estimating leisure goods models on time series of cross sections

This paper analyses the joint modelling of labour supply and consumer expenditure in a utility maximizing framework. A recent demand system (AIDS) is augmented to include labour supply and incorporate time series/cross section wage rate variation and, then, estimated on pooled F.E.S. data [Family Expenditure Surveys]. A method of non linear FIML is applied. The paper questions the near unanimous ‘evidence’ on backward bending labour supply in previous studies and, using counter evidence, argues that such a bend could have been partly due to the restrictive utility forms usually employed. In addition, hypotheses relating to effects of price/wage movements on composition of ‘full income’ are tested, and the welfare implications of the estimated parameter estimates worked out.     

Further results on the number of non-zero eigenvalues of a dynamic linear Econometric Model

This comment reconsiders a problem, discussed some time ago in this journal, concerning the determination of the exact number of non-zero eigenvalues of an Econometric Model of the Federal Republic of Germany. See Wolters (1976), Uebe (1977) and Schoonbeek (1983). We demonstrate in a straightforward way, by using theoretical arguments, that the number of such eigenvalues is at most 7.     

New techniques for estimation of rational expectation models and Volcker deflation

Multivariate autoregressive moving average models are used to form the “reduced forms” of Muth's rational expectation models. One implication of the modern macroeconomic theory is that economic agents' expectations should change in the presence of major policy changes. This paper proposes a simple method for directly comparing the formulation of expectations, and illustrates it by considering the impact of a recent policy change in the US under Paul Volcker of the Federal Reserve Bank. Many new interpretations are based on transfer functions, “gain” calculations, Green's function matrices from solutions of difference equations, and complex conjugate roots to measure cyclical phenomena. Furthermore, the traditional distributed lag models are criticized for arbitrarily assuming that the gain is unity. We provide an equation for minimum mean squared error regulation, and indicate the role played by rational two-step ahead speculations made by economic agents, along with changes therein emanating from the policy change.     

Multicrop Production Models with Multinomial Logit Acreage Shares

The main objective of this paper is to show that the MultiNomial Logit (MNL) framework can be used for deriving simple acreage share models. More specifically we show that MNL acreage choice models can be defined as parts of consistent multicrop models. When coupled with suitably designed crop production models, e.g. a specific parameterization of the standard quadratic yield function, the parameters of these multicrop models are easily interpreted and estimated. Although MNL acreage choice models are usually derived by aggregating crop choices defined at the plot level, we show that these models can also be derived by considering a profit maximisation problem at the farm level. This provides a simple theoretical background for the Standard MNL acreage share model, as well as for simple extensions of these models: the Nested MNL acreage share models. An empirical application on French farm-level data over the period 1996–2007 investigates the empirical performances of the multicrop econometric models based on the proposed MNL framework for modelling acreage choices.     

Industry innovativeness,firm size,and entrepreneurship: Schumpeter Mark III?

Emphasizing the dynamics in economies and industries, Schumpeter points to entrepreneurs carrying out ‘new combinations’. His work, and in particular the Theory of Economic Development, is often interpreted as praising individual entrepreneurs setting up new firms to contribute to an industry’s innovativeness. This has come to be referred to as the Schumpeter Mark I perspective. Later, however, in his Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, Schumpeter has rather suggested that large incumbents are best positioned to contribute to an industry’s innovativeness (Schumpeter Mark II). In this discussion, however, the possibly different effects of structural as opposed to dynamic industry competitiveness is often not taken into account. In addition, the contribution of new and small firms to industry innovativeness are often conflated. Using New Product Announcements as a measure of innovation, we find that industries dominated by small firms prove consistently and significantly more innovative than industries where large firms dominate. Taking account of industries’ structural and dynamic levels of competition, we find that high existing and increasing levels of new firms entering an industry, exercising what Schumpeter called the ‘entrepreneurial function’, actually decrease industry innovativeness. We conclude that the contribution of small firms in terms of industry innovativeness is different from that of large as well as new firms, suggesting a Schumpeter Mark III perspective.     

Nonlinear relationship between health care expenditure and its determinants: a panel smooth transition regression model

This paper employs a panel of 16 OECD countries over the period 1975–2009 to reexamine the health care expenditure (HCE)-income relationship by considering a lagged ratio of public expenditures on health as the transition variable in panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models. PSTR models can capture the heterogeneity of any individual country, provide more detailed information for policy makers of an individual government, and resolve the insufficient observations problem that frequently appears in annual country-level data. Our empirical results indicate that the relationship between HCE and its determinants, including income, time (trend), and age structure variables, is nonlinear and varies with time and across countries. The time (trend) variable—a proxy for technical progress in health care—has a non-linear impact on HCE. Ignoring the variables—technological change of health care and age structure of population—will result in over-estimates of the income elasticities of HCE. Moreover, HCE behaves as a necessity good, and the income elasticity increases when the five-period lagged ratio of public expenditures on health increases. Clearly, the ratio of government financing on health plays an important role in influencing HCE.