Trade, technology, and the rise of the service sector: The effects on US wage inequality

This paper uses a multi-sector version of the Ricardo-Viner model of international trade to quantify empirically the effects of technological changes, international trade, changes in the sectoral composition of the economy, and other factors on the US wage premium. The main finding of the paper is that changes in the sectoral composition of the economy were the most important force behind the widening of the wage gap, accounting for about 60% of the relative increase in wages of skilled workers between 1970 and 1996. In essence, capital was reallocated to sectors where it is relatively complementary to skilled workers.     

The dynamics of trade and competition

We estimate a version of the Melitz and Ottaviano [Melitz, Marc J. and Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P., 2008, Market size, trade, and productivity, Review of Economic Studies 75(1), pp. 295-316.] model of international trade with firm heterogeneity. The model is constructed to yield testable implications for the dynamics of prices, productivity and markups as functions of openness to trade at a sectoral level. The theory lends itself naturally to a difference in differences estimation, with international differences in trade openness at the sector level reflecting international differences in the competitive structure of markets. Predictions are derived for the effects of both domestic and foreign openness on each economy. Using disaggregated data for EU manufacturing over the period 1989-1999 we find short run evidence that trade openness exerts a competitive effect, with prices and markups falling and productivity rising. The response of profit margins to openness has implications on the conduct of monetary policy. Consistent with the predictions of some recent theoretical models we find some, albeit weaker, support that the long run effects are more ambiguous and may even be anti-competitive. Domestic trade liberalization also appears to induce pro-competitive effects on overseas markets.     

International trade,risk taking and welfare

This paper shows that the gains from opening up to international trade are smaller when firms do not fully internalize downward risk. I develop a general equilibrium model with two key assumptions. First, when faced with adverse productivity shocks, employers can lay off workers without fully paying the social costs of their layoff decisions, a common feature of many institutions. Second, when opening to international trade, the elasticity of demand perceived by an industry increases. In this setup, I show that international trade induces firms to take more risk and (i) raises the equilibrium unemployment rate, (ii) increases the volatility of sectoral sales and (iii) increases welfare proportionately less than in the absence of the externality. Inducing firms to internalize the costs of layoff (Blanchard and Tirole, 2003) therefore appears even more important in a globalized world.     

Financial development,sectoral reallocation,and volatility: International evidence

This paper studies how financial development affects the volatility of GDP growth through the channel of sectoral reallocation. For 28 OECD countries over the period 1970–2007, we construct a benchmark industrial portfolio that minimizes the economy's long-term volatility for a given level of long-term labor productivity growth. We find that financial development substantially increases the speed with which the observed industrial composition of output converges toward the benchmark. To overcome endogeneity concerns, we exploit sectoral sensitivities to financial deepening and exogenous liberalization events.     

Patterns of foreign direct investment in poor countries

This paper introduces endogenous adoption costs for productive assets in a Ramsey-type growth model with international capital flows. There are two classes of productive assets: owner-specific and location-specific. Adoption costs are an increasing function of the level of technology embodied in the investor's owner-specific assets and a declining function of the host country's location-specific assets. In this setting, the observed pattern of international capital flows is consistent with diminishing returns to capital. Further, our model predicts that the sectoral allocation of foreign direct investment is similar in rich and poor countries.     

Domestic regulation,import penetration and firm-level productivity growth

This paper shows that the impact of import penetration on firms’ productivity growth depends on firms’ distance to the efficiency frontier and on product market regulation. Using firm-level data for a substantial number of OECD countries from the late 1990s to late 2000s, the analysis reveals nonlinear effects of both sectoral import penetration and de jure product market regulation measures, depending on firms’ positions along the global distribution of productivity. Close to the technology frontier, import penetration has a strongly positive effect on firm-level productivity growth, with less stringent domestic regulation enhancing this effect substantially. However, far from the frontier, the effect of import penetration on firm-level productivity growth is much smaller and often not significant. Its interaction with domestic regulation generally has no statistically significant effect either. The heterogeneous effects of import penetration and domestic product market regulation on firm-level productivity growth are consistent with a neo-Schumpeterian view of trade and regulation.     

外商直接投资、国际贸易与中国生产率增长研究——基于非参数Malmquist指数的经验分析

本文以1986-2003年的省级面板数据为样本,采用基于非参数的Malmquist生产率指数来度量中国全要素生产率的变化,分析了外商直接投资和国际贸易对中国生产率增长的影响。研究表明,外商直接投资和国际贸易显著地促进了中国生产率的增长,其对生产率增长的促进作用主要通过与人力资本相结合来实现;同时,其对中国生产率的促进作用主要体现在促进了技术的进步,而对技术效率的改善作用不明显。另外,本文还发现在1986-2003年间中国省级生产率增长和技术进步存在显著的收敛趋势。     

技术进步引起国际贸易摩擦的一个模型

保罗·萨缪尔逊在2004年提出的国际贸易模型中,运用数字例子对国际贸易的互利与摩擦问题进行了分析。文章运用一般化的数学方法,扩展了这种研究,在四种和N种商品的贸易模式中,对国际贸易的互利与摩擦问题做了进一步的分析。国际贸易的互利与摩擦依赖于某种技术进步导致的贸易商品数目的变动,并在国际贸易的比较优势的区域内,依据一定的条件形成,并相互转化。     

Province-Level Impacts of Canada’s Trade Agreements

Given Canada’s extended geography and regional economic diversity, individual provinces have differing exposures to particular international trade agreements. We demonstrate this by estimating the impacts of the Canada-Korea free trade agreement on the province of Ontario, using a dynamic general equilibrium model to generate Canada-level impacts, which are then decomposed on the basis of partial equilibrium model simulations on a trade dataset in which Ontario is represented as a separate international trading entity. We show that geography and sectoral specialization matter and that general equilibrium effects must be taken into account in partial equilibrium assessments of sectoral impacts of major trade agreements.     

Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach

This paper presents a multisectoral model based on Kaldor's approach to explain the importance of structural change and cumulative causation. Divergence in countries' growth rates in Kaldorian models are explained either by different degrees of increasing returns among sectors on the supply side or by different income elasticities of exports and imports on the demand-side, but it is not explained by both factors together. In this vein, a multisector growth model that combines different sectoral income elasticities and different sectoral increasing returns is built to explain how structural changes toward high-tech industries can trigger a process of cumulative causation and ensure higher growth rates in the long run.     

Migration of skilled workers and innovation: A European Perspective

We study empirically and theoretically the growth of U.S. manufacturing exports from 1987 to 2007. We use plant-level data on exporters' export intensity to identify the changes in iceberg costs over this period. Given this change in iceberg costs, we find that a GE model with heterogeneous establishments and dynamic exporting decision from a sunk cost of starting to export is consistent with both aggregate U.S. export growth and the changes in the number and size of U.S. exporters. The model also captures the gradual response of U.S. exports to the cut in iceberg costs. A model with a static exporting decision generates substantially less trade growth and misses out on the timing of export growth. We also study the interplay between changes in the structure of manufacturing and trade. We find that the growth in trade contributed little to the contraction in U.S. manufacturing while changes in the structure of manufacturing from changes in sectoral productivity, capital intensity, idiosyncratic shocks, and corporate taxation reduced U.S. export growth by as much as 10%.     

生产率的结构性变动对我国外贸顺差的影响

基于一般均衡模型,本文分析了生产率的结构性变动对我国外贸顺差的影响。从国内来看,我国制造业(出口行业)的生产率增速要高于服务业(进口竞争行业),在"放大效应"的作用下,出口行业产出增速较快,出口规模急剧扩张;从国际来看,我国在制造业方面的生产率增速要高于美国等发达国家,而在服务业方面彼此相差不大,由此引发了人民币实际汇率上升,要素贸易条件改善。上述因素的相互叠加,致使我国出口额超常增长,成为外贸顺差的主要来源。     

The Impact of Foreign Technology and Embodied R&D on Productivity in Internationally Oriented and High-Technology Industries in Egypt, 2006–2009

This paper investigates the domestic productivity and spillover effects of foreign technology and embodied R&D on Egyptian manufacturing industries, 2006 to 2009. It also analyses the heterogeneous sectoral effects of technology transfer by focusing specifically on the productivity effects on highly internationalized and technology-intensive industries. These are expected to have greater absorptive capacity with respect to foreign technology and therefore larger productivity effects because of their greater exposure to foreign competition and greater technological capacity respectively. This study is the first to analyse the efficiency effects of foreign technology by classifying industries in this manner. It finds that foreign technology and embodied R&D have positive and significant industry-specific effects on domestic productivity and TFP in technology-intensive industries but that these are weaker in internationally oriented industries. The study suggests that only technological-intensive industries in Egypt have sufficient absorptive capacity to assimilate foreign technology effectively. The paper’s findings highlight the key role of foreign technology in domestic productivity growth, subject to the absorptive capacity of the domestic labour force, and the need for improved policies to promote the domestic benefits of technology transfer through the accumulation of local technological competences.

     

R&D spillovers through trade in a panel of OECD industries

This paper investigates the significance of Research and Development (R&D) spillovers through intra- and international trade in intermediate goods for productivity growth in a panel of OECD industries during 1973–1994. In the model, four different sources of R&D are identified: R&D conducted in the particular industry itself, R&D conducted in the same industries in other countries, R&D conducted in other domestic industries, and R&D conducted in other foreign industries. I find that among R&D sources the most important contributions to productivity growth come from the domestic R&D efforts. Here, own R&D is important for both domestic innovation and for the productivity catch-up process. Evidence that international R&D spillovers also have significant effects on productivity growth is found to be less robust. My analysis also shows that human capital affects productivity directly as a factor of production.     

Firm entry and turnover: the nexus with profitability and growth

The paper presents a new sectoral taxonomy, which classifies industries according to the opportunity and cost of experimentation. Econometric tests show for a sample of 24 countries that in the 1990s ‘entrepreneurial’ industries with a mutable and growing firm population experienced the highest growth in terms of value added and employment, but also the lowest growth of labour productivity. ‘Entrepreneurial’ industries generally earned a better profit-ratio than ‘routinised’ industries with an inertial population. The results are consistent with entrepreneurial theories of market competition, which suggest that entry follows profit opportunities but does not deplete them.      

On the similarity of country endowments

We study the production side of the Heckscher-Ohlin model empirically. The evidence we present suggests that the endowments of countries around the world are too dissimilar for all countries to be able to produce the same set of goods. In contrast, the endowments of the rich OECD countries are sufficiently similar, so that these countries do not have to specialize in different subsets of goods. Our findings have implications for a variety of issues ranging from the trade and wages debate to economic development. Our analysis relies on the lens condition of Deardorff [Journal of International Economics 36 (1994) 167-175] that compares country endowments with sectoral factor inputs. We mainly focus on the production factors capital and labor. We test the robustness of the results with different data sets and with corrections for international differences in productivity and human capital. We confirm the similarity of the developed OECD countries with skilled and unskilled labor data. We also investigate in detail the implications of measurement error and sectoral aggregation.     

Exports and FDI motivations: Empirical evidence from U.S. foreign subsidiaries

Foreign direct investments (FDI) are supposed to bring into the host countries indirect benefits, usually referred as productivity spillover effects. However, an emerging literature analyses the effect with regard to the export performance of local firms finding inconclusive results. This literature is affected by two main shortcomings: firstly, the role played by FDI motivations is largely disregarded and, secondly, it is difficult to generalise results valid across countries. For these reasons, the aim of the paper is that of testing the effects of U.S. FDI on export intensity at the sectoral level in 16 OECD countries over the period 1990–2001 by bringing together international economics and international business perspective on FDI motivations. Through our data, we disentangle asset seeking and asset exploiting FDI motivations distinguishing also the channels through which the effect is going to occur. The findings show that asset exploiting motivations, and in particular market seeking FDI, are those that affect export intensity to a greater extent.     

Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?

We study empirically and theoretically the growth of U.S. manufacturing exports from 1987 to 2007. We use plant-level data on exporters' export intensity to identify the changes in iceberg costs over this period. Given this change in iceberg costs, we find that a GE model with heterogeneous establishments and dynamic exporting decision from a sunk cost of starting to export is consistent with both aggregate U.S. export growth and the changes in the number and size of U.S. exporters. The model also captures the gradual response of U.S. exports to the cut in iceberg costs. A model with a static exporting decision generates substantially less trade growth and misses out on the timing of export growth. We also study the interplay between changes in the structure of manufacturing and trade. We find that the growth in trade contributed little to the contraction in U.S. manufacturing while changes in the structure of manufacturing from changes in sectoral productivity, capital intensity, idiosyncratic shocks, and corporate taxation reduced U.S. export growth by as much as 10%.     

The Global Productivity Slowdown: Diagnosis,Causes and Remedies

This paper addresses the long-term slowdown in labour productivity for a panel of 25 countries. First, we look at productivity shifts and trends based on structural break tests and modern filtering techniques. The productivity slowdown is evident in almost all countries we investigate. Second, we deepen the analysis by decomposing labour productivity growth. Third, we use dynamic models to test for Granger causality in the trends and find that there is strong evidence that a slow GDP growth trend causes the subsequent productivity trend. We conclude that the productivity slowdown is a global phenomenon and should therefore be tackled at the international level.     

Services Offshoring and its Impact on Productivity and Employment: Evidence from Germany, 1995–2006

Economists have recently recognised services offshoring as an important influence on domestic labour market outcomes. Services are of particular interest since their significance has grown in terms of both quantity and quality. Only one and a half decades ago, most services were considered non‐tradable, but the emergence and development of new information and communication technologies has made many services internationally tradable. The liberalisation of international trade in services trade has further accelerated the volume of services trade. Our econometric estimations focus on services offshoring by German manufacturing sectors. We use revised input–output data from 1995 to 2006. We first estimate the impact of services offshoring on labour productivity. We then measure the effects of services offshoring on labour demand. The results show that services offshoring increased sectoral labour productivity, but reduced German manufacturing employment. The overall results suggest that labour demand decreased over 1995–2006, because labour‐reducing productivity and substitution effects dominated labour‐augmenting scale effects from services offshoring.