Is the Fed Funds Rate Still Effective?

Both the depth and length of the Great Recession create the impression that the economy proved impervious to monetary policy. Policy rates, such as the federal funds rate (fed funds rate), were set at record lows, but the recovery in housing, employment, and GDP were subpar at best. Now with a self-sustaining expansion, the FOMC began rolling back its asset purchases program and, at some point in the future, it will start increasing its target for the fed funds rate. This raises the questions of whether the fed funds rate remains an effective tool and what effect an altered Federal Reserve balance sheet will have on inflation and the unemployment rate in the post-Great Recession world. Our econometric analysis suggests that since the 1990s, the traditional tools of monetary policy (such as the fed funds rate) may have influenced the unemployment rate but that it did not influence inflation. Thus, the effect a change in the fed funds rate may not be as straightforward as suggested by the conventional economic theory and the traditional link between interest rates and inflation and unemployment may have broken down.     

Inflation,R&D and growth in an open economy

This study explores the long-run effects of inflation in a two-country Schumpeterian growth model with cash-in-advance constraints on consumption and R&D investment. We find that increasing domestic inflation reduces domestic R&D investment and the growth rate of domestic technology. Given that economic growth in a country depends on both domestic and foreign technologies, increasing foreign inflation also affects the domestic economy. When each government conducts its monetary policy unilaterally to maximize the welfare of domestic households, the Nash-equilibrium inflation rates are generally higher than the optimal inflation rates chosen by cooperative governments who maximize the welfare of both domestic and foreign households. Under the CIA constraint on R&D (consumption), a larger market power of firms amplifies (mitigates) this inflationary bias. We use cross-country panel data to estimate the effects of inflation on R&D and also calibrate the two-country model to data in the Euro Area and the US to quantify the welfare effects of decreasing the inflation rates from the Nash equilibrium to the optimal level.     

基于宏观经济动态均衡的中国通胀压力均衡调整分析

2009年下半年以来,我国经济逐渐复苏,而通胀的压力也进一步增大。基于宏观经济动态均衡的角度,现对经济通胀压力进行量化分析。在进行量化分析前构建了一个求解宏观经济动态均衡的简单模型,并将中国宏观经济中的五大变量代入该模型进行了计量分析,得出了中国宏观经济中五大变量的均衡值。然后,通过经验分析,考察了1979年以来我国物价运行的动态均衡轨迹。最后,依据计量数据和经验分析,阐述了当前通胀压力的均衡调整策略。     

MARKETS FOR INFLATION‐INDEXED BONDS AS MECHANISMS FOR EFFICIENT MONETARY POLICY

We consider a continuous‐time framework featuring a central bank, private agents, and a financial market. The central bank's objective is to maximize a functional, which measures the classical trade‐off between output and inflation over time plus income from the sales of inflation‐indexed bonds minus payments for the liabilities that the inflation‐indexed bonds produce at maturity. Private agents are assumed to have adaptive expectations. The financial market is modeled in continuous‐time Black–Scholes–Merton style and financial agents are averse against inflation risk, attaching an inflation risk premium to nominal bonds. Following this route, we explain demand for inflation‐indexed securities on the financial market from a no‐arbitrage assumption and derive pricing formulas for inflation‐linked bonds and calls, which lead to a supply‐demand equilibrium. Furthermore, we study the consequences that the sales of inflation‐indexed securities have on the observed inflation rate and price level. Similar to the study of Walsh, we find that the inflationary bias is significantly reduced, and hence that markets for inflation‐indexed bonds provide a mechanism to reduce inflationary bias and increase central bank's credibility.     

对当前价格变动与通货膨胀压力增加的几点认识

近期,我国以肉、蛋为标志的部分消费品价格出现了上涨,但这并不标志着通货膨胀的出现。目前,我国确实存在着潜在的通货膨胀压力,但这有着更深层次的原因。文章以部分商品价格的变动为切入点,深入分析了当前我国宏观经济运行中存在的主要矛盾、问题及其对潜在通货膨胀压力形成的共同作用机理。最后,从理论上提出部分治理和解决当前主要矛盾和问题的思路。     

Renminbi Undervaluation·China＇s Surplus. the US Trade Deficit

Introduction
On June 2I, 2010, in the run-up to the G-20 meeting in Toronto, China announced that it would shift to a more flexible exchange rate policy. From mid- June to july 30 the yuan rose 0.8 percent against the dollar.     

On the Feasibility of Interest Rate Control: The Role of Disequilibrium and Adaptive Learning

A model is constructed which derives an inverse relationship between real rate of interest and inflation rate following a disproportionate change in money supply. It is argued that such an inverse relationship paves the way for successful control of the nominal interest rate. It is analytically demonstrated that the state space is divided by a separatrix containing a stable zone and an unstable zone. If the initial inflation and the dynamics of inflationary expectations lie in the stable zone, then the monetary authority can peg the nominal interest rate without risking runaway inflation or deflation. The unstable zone, however, keeps the possibility of the cumulative process alive.     

Geldpolitik aus Sicht der Bundesbank: auf dem Weg zu einem neuen Paradigma?

The ECB decision to cut its benchmark interest rate in November 2013 has been severely criticised in Germany. Against this background, the President of the Bundesbank justified the ECB’s monetary policy stance in recent speeches. At the same time, however, he argued that this stance carries risks and has adverse effects. By noting this, he leaves it open to interpretation whether a more restrictive stance would be appropriate even if inflation is well within the target range. If this interpretation were to be correct, it would indicate a deviation from elements of the pre-crisis consensus, namely that policy makers should aim at a clear target and should justify their measures in a consistent way.     

An econometric assessment of the Canadian wage and price control program: 1975:4–1977:4

This paper presents an econometric assessment of the Canadian Wage and Price Control Program. The assessment is specifically designed to determine whether controls have been effective in reducing the long-run inflation rate in Canada. The method of evaluation of the control program is to compare the behavior of inflation under controls to the behavior which would have occurred in the absence of controls. In addition, the paper analyzes inflation in the post-control period to test for the “catch-up” phenomenon. The results suggest that the control program exercised a permanent effect on the inflation rate.     

央行频繁提高存款准备金率的思考

法定存款准备金制度作为中央银行实施货币政策的＂三大法宝＂之一,其在货币信贷数量控制、货币市场流动性和利率调节,以及促进金融机构稳健经营、限制货币替代和资本流出入等方面发挥着重要作用。截至目前,央行已连续六次上调存款准备金率,商业银行的存款准备金率已达到历史高位。由于当前金融领域存在的一个突出问题就是持续贸易顺差、FDI（对外直接投资）和国际投机资本的大量进入导致外汇占款持续增加,造成被动性的货币投放增加,导致流动性不断扩张,通货膨胀压力加大。存款准备金率连续上调就是为了回收因外汇流入过多导致的过剩流动性,实施紧缩政策以应对日益强化的通货膨胀预期。     

Capital budgeting and uncertain inflation

In this article, capital budgeting is examined under uncertain inflation. The market value of a risky asset is shown to be greatly influenced by uncertain inflation. Risk- adjusted discount rates and certainty equivalent factors are determined by risks due to potential changes in investors' expectations in response to changes in the unanticipated inflation rate and market conditions over time. A serious error in capital budgeting decision may be resulted if the impact of uncertain inflation is ignored in the valuation process.     

Lessons from a Brazilian miracle: Surviving and thriving in a highly inflationary environment

Since the Plano Real was successfully implemented in July 1994, inflation has been curbed to normal proportions in Brazil. Until that moment, Brazil had been a highly inflationary economic environment for decades. It had reached a degree of sophistication by means of complex indexation mechanisms and a myriad of financial instruments that no other highly inflationary country had ever achieved. This article discusses the lessons that can be drawn from the pre-Plano Real period in Brazil. These lessons might prove useful in areas currently confronted with high inflation rates, such as Eastern Europe, and future highly inflationary countries. The article is based on a study among 40 senior executives from a wide variety of economic sectors in Brazil.     

我国通货膨胀过程的社会福利成本度量与经验分析

通过利用1994年至2006年之间的我国GDP、M1和名义利率的季度数据,采用协整检验和回归系数估计方法,获得我国长期货币需求函数,在此基础上对我国通货膨胀的社会福利成本进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,我国较高的通货膨胀率会带来比较大的福利成本,因此,当前通胀压力较大的时期,采取适当的宏观调控措施,将通货膨胀率控制在3%以下的低水平状态。     

Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?

Responses of inflation and non‐oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short‐run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non‐oil output growth and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non‐oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries – not necessarily stable non‐oil output growth. If the non‐oil output response is made conscientiously – and there are concerns over the dollar’s ability to perform its role as a store of value – a basket peg with both the US dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short‐term interest rate.     

Increasing Inflationary Pressure

China＇s CPI rose to 8.7 percent in February after hitting 7.1 percent in January,creating a 12-year high, the National Bureau of Statistics said.The figure exceeded market expectations,as the Bank of China,the country＇s second- largest lender,     

Inflation and west African sectoral stock price indices: An asymmetric kernel method analysis

Our work puts into perspective the relationship between inflation and West African sectoral indices between November 2001 and January 2020 using the asymmetric kernel method. The sectoral indices considered for the analysis include retail, finance, industry, utilities, agriculture, transportation, and other sectors. Our work reveals that while all sectors are sensitive to inflation, the utilities and agriculture sectors are more sensitive to changes in inflation. Moreover, we discover that the relationship between inflation and sectoral stock market indices is rather non-linear to support the hypothesis that the relationship between inflation and stock market indices varies across different inflationary economies. These results imply that investors modify the structure of their investment portfolio according to the variation in the levels of inflation to the extent that this variation ultimately affects future dividends.     

合理负债融资 促进高校跨越式发展

负债融资是目前高校实现跨越式发展的必由之路。负债融资对高校的发展而言 ,机遇与风险并存。现阶段高校负债融资要注意以下问题 :高校各级领导对负债融资工作要提高认识 ,加深理解 ;建立负债融资项目科学决策程序 ,认真选择负债融资项目 ;合理确定负债限度 ,严格控制负债融资规模 ;建立和完善负债融资项目责任制 ,加强债务资金的管理 ,提高资金的使用效益。     

Banks,Institutional Constraints and the Limits of Central Banking: Monetary Policy in Britain and West Germany, 1950–52

This paper analyses the anti-inflationary policies which were pursued in Britain and West Germany during the Korean War boom. It argues that the institutional relationships between the government, the central bank and the banking system can have considerable impact on the implementation of policy. The war brought a major shift in raw material prices and a consequent rise in bank lending in both countries to finance the increased import bill. The German independent central bank (BdL) used technical measures to restrain short-term lending, but was frustrated by the willingness of the Landeszentralbanken (regional central banks) to discount the bills of their local banking system. In addition, the banks themselves, because they operated in a competitive system, sought ways to circumvent the restrictions. The BdL took steps to tighten these loopholes and introduce a much stronger and more well defined policy transmission mechanism. Shifts in the terms of trade reduced inflationary pressure but the BdL retained tighter control over the banking system.

In Britain, the Bank of England was nominally controlled by the government, although it was able to exercise a degree of independence. Both parties had clear ideas of how inflationary pressure could be controlled in the economy; but these ideas differed significantly and neither one was able to impose their preferred option on the other. The result was a mixture of quantitative restrictions on the banks' balance sheets and qualitative guidelines to the banking system on the nature and extent of lending. The shift in raw material prices in 1952 largely solved the problem which it had created in 1951. The authorities, however, felt that their policies had been successful in constraining inflation and they failed to improve the monetary policy transmission mechanism as the Germans had done.     

最优铸币税、通货膨胀与财政可持续性研究

当前我国政府财政赤字规模不断增加,政府债务规模居高不下,铸币税作为政府重要的资金来源之一,将其纳入政府预算约束恒等式来综合考量我国政府财政可持续性具有重要意义。本文通过理论模型将铸币税纳入政府跨期预算恒等式构建财政可持性指标,得到通货膨胀与财政可持续性之间的正相关关系。然后采用1978-2018年的经济数据,实证检验铸币税、财政可持续性与通货膨胀之间的长期协整关系。结果表明:我国的铸币税与通货膨胀处于Laffer曲线的右侧,即我国的铸币税与通货膨胀在长期呈现出正相关的关系;财政可持续性与通货膨胀存在相互之间的正向效应;铸币税是我国政府保持财政可持续性的重要资金来源。因此,应加强财政政策和货币政策的协调配合,建立科学的政府债务管理体制,同时应设立科学的跨期财政预警指标以防范财政风险。     

Level and growth policy rules and actual Fed policy since 1979

The good macroeconomic performance of the US economy since the early 1980s has sparked interest in determining how the Fed has conducted the monetary policy. One widely shared view is that actual policy has broadly been consistent empirically with Taylor-type policy rules in which the funds rate responds to actual or expected inflation and the level of the output gap. In particular, as shown in Mehra (2001), a policy rule in which the funds rate responds to expected inflation, the bond rate, and the level of the output gap predicts actual policy well. It is shown here that the growth version of this rule in which the funds rate responds to the growth rate of the output gap instead of its level predicts actual policy almost as well. Hence, uncertainty that exists in measuring the current level of the output gap may not have mattered much in the conduct of policy, in contrast to the view focused on level policy rules.