中部6省人力资本投入对农民收入的影响力研究

农民收入是区域农村发展水平的重要指标,农村人力资本投入对农民收入增长有明显的促进作用。我国区域农村发展存在东中西差异。中部6省(山西、湖南、湖北、安徽、河南及江西)农民收入水平处于全国中上水平。深入分析中部6省人力资本对农民收入增长的作用,具有重要的现实意义。研究基于1998~2014年的时间序列数据,建立面板数据回归模型,实证分析中部6省人力资本投资对农民人均可支配收入、工资性收入以及家庭经营收入的影响。研究表明:中部6省农村人力资本投资对农民人均可支配收入、工资性收入和家庭经营收入的影响都在1%的水平下影响显著,其中农村人力资本投资对工资性收入的影响效应最大,除山西省外,影响值都达到1.0以上;农村人力资本投资对农民人均可支配收入影响次之,中部6省之间的影响效应值在0.65~0.95之间,山西省影响效应最低;农村人力资本投资对农民家庭经营收入的影响效应值最小,中部6省除山西省外,其他5个省份的影响效应均大于0.5。并提出加大农村人力资本投资,制定人力资本投资向农村倾斜的政策,加大宣传力度鼓励农民进行自主性人力资本投资,以及加大农村医疗基础建设,完善农村医保体系等一系列提高农村居民收入,实现城乡均衡发展的对策建议。     

Demand for area crop insurance among litchi producers in northern Vietnam

This study examines the need for crop insurance for litchi production in northern Vietnam and how farmers might participate in such a program. Hypothetical insurance programs were developed which proposed all‐risk coverage based on area yields. This coverage was offered to farmers to determine both their interest in the program and how insurance features and farmer characteristics affected their decision to buy insurance. Farmers were also surveyed regarding their production practices, price and yield expectations, and financial and personal characteristics. Even before considering other program costs and government budget constraints, there is not a strong case for establishing a crop insurance program here. Results indicate that while farmer participation would be significant, crop insurance is not needed to achieve policy goals like raising farmer income or guaranteeing subsistence levels of income. Crop insurance is not needed to promote litchi production, which is already expanding rapidly due to its high profitability relative to other farm enterprises. In their choice of coverages, farmers preferred higher yield guarantee levels and lower indemnity prices. Estimated premiums were quite low when expressed as a percent of expected revenue, and farmers were not responsive to changes in premiums. Econometric analysis indicated that high income farmers were more likely to participate, but other farmer characteristics seemed to matter little. Anecdotal evidence suggested that farmers believed the expected area yields used to set insurance coverage levels were too low. Because litchi productivity varies significantly by tree age and the litchi planted area is expanding rapidly, determining appropriate values for expected area yields and insurance coverage levels appeared to be the biggest challenge in program design. It is hypothesized that additional farmer education about the relationship between area and farm yields and other aspects of area insurance could improve such a program's operation. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.     

Factors influencing participation in the Nova Scotia Environmental Farm Plan Program

There is growing interest in Nova Scotia's Environmental Farm Plan (NS EFP) program among farmers and policy makers because of several reasons. First, effectiveness of standardized or uniform beneficial management practices in mitigating the negative environmental impacts from agriculture is limited by inherent heterogeneities in agricultural production systems. In addition, there is heightened interest in farmers generating ecological goods and services to society. This study investigates the determinants of participation in the NS EFP program. A discrete choice model of NS EFP participation was applied to a sample of 83 farmers (representing a 31% response rate). To increase relevance of the study to program administrators, the study also examined farmers’ use of various channels and sources of information on farm conservation practices. The most used sources of information on farm conservation practices include a mix of interpersonal sources and government agencies. Although online information (especially those available for free) appears to be gaining popularity in usage, overall, electronic and computer channels of information (especially radio and television) were used less compared with traditional channels of communicating farm conservation information (such as newsletters and agricultural magazines). Regression analysis suggests that farm characteristics (i.e., farm type, farm size, farm income) and farmer capacity variables (i.e., specialized training and knowledge from EFP program information sessions and workshops, and on-farm stewardship demonstrations) were significant determinants of environmental farm planning.     

Stop and Go Agricultural Policies with a Land Market

This article studies the design of farm policy in the presence of asymmetric information about farmers' productivity, a government objective to insure farmers a minimum "parity" income, an endogenous land rent, and diminishing returns on alternative (nonprogram crop) land uses. In this setting, acreage set asides are never part of an optimal farm policy, although compensated acreage limits are. When there are new farmer entrants who cannot be excluded from farm programs, optimal policy takes the form of a pure voluntary acreage limitation—or "buyout"—program in which high-cost producers participate and low-cost producers do not.     

“保险+期货”模式与农户增收——基于全国124个县的多期双重差分估计

目的 “保险+期货”作为我国金融支农的重要创新,对农户实现增收起着关键作用。在农产品价格风险成为农户主要风险的背景下,分析“保险+期货”对农户增收的影响路径和效果具有重要的理论和现实意义。方法 文章基于准自然实验的思路,将“保险+期货”试点视作外部冲击,构建多期双重差分模型,采用2011—2020年中国124个县的面板数据,估计“保险+期货”试点对农户增收的影响路径和效果。结果 （1）“保险+期货”试点对农户具有显著的增收效应,使农村居民人均可支配收入平均提高了2.75%。（2）“保险+期货”试点对农户的增收效应存在异质性,对贫困县农户更为明显。（3）“保险+期货”试点对农户的增收效应是逐年递增的,试点第5年增收效应达到上限。结论 建议稳步扩大“保险+期货”试点、优先在脱贫地区开展“保险+期货”试点,并且积极探索建立收入保险。     

农业职业教育对养殖农户收入增加影响的研究———基于陕西省面板数据实证分析

文章基于农业职业教育与农户收入增加的影响关系,依据2009年陕西省养殖农户调查数据,采用Probit模型考察基本变量对农户参与养殖的行为影响,研究结果表明人力资本状况是决定养殖户获得养殖收益的关键因素,个体特征对于农户收益的影响有限。在接受教育程度、有过接受培训经历及技能水平等方面具有优势的农户,其养殖收益比较高。尤其是获得过职业技术培训,取得一定技能的养殖农户,在收益提高方面成效明显。年龄偏大的农户,其获得收入的渠道与数量稳定性相对较好,年龄与其收入水平之间呈现出一种持续上升的关系。健康状况指标与农户收入指标之间没有呈现出显著的对应关系,这可能与参与调查的农户身体健康状况普遍较好有关。基于此,提出通过文化教育促进农户综合素质提升;改进政府服务功能,加强农业职业教育培训;完善农业职业教育长效机制,促使农业职业教育落到实处;加大投入力度,改善农村医疗保健服务设施等建议。     

退耕还林:公共生态产品的私人提供

引入公共产品和私人产品联合生产理论,阐述退耕还林的生态经济联合生产本质;通过构建集体农户模型,讨论公共生态产品的私人提供问题。研究结果表明:生态经济联合产品私人供给的纳什均衡具有存在性和唯一性;农户的选择和参与仍然是实现和保障退耕还林总体最优目标的唯一有效途径;农户的收入及其结构仍然是影响其供给意愿的首要因素;差别化的生态补偿制度是确保政策生态目标瞄准的必然选择。     

Energy price reform and food markets: the case of bread supply chain in Iran

Reforming energy price is the core of Iranian economic reform plan during 2010–2014. However, increasing price of energy may have adverse effects on the agricultural and food markets. This study was conducted to address these problems in the most important food of Iranian people “bread” by developing a spatial supply chain model. Results show that consumers’ welfare would experience a sharp decrease though the impacts on farmers are trivial. Also, results indicate that the key to success the reform without political backlash in the short‐run is the cash transfer program under which the government redistributes part of the reform's benefits among consumers. Per capita compensation payments would be equal to 51.50 and 46.09 US$ per year for a typical rural and urban person, respectively. Moreover, the results provide more detailed information about the market characteristics and the payments both in nationwide and regional scale as well as in different income groups.     

河北省农民收入影响因素分析

2019年中央一号文件提出,2019—2020年是全面建成小康社会的决胜期,"三农"领域有不少必须完成的硬任务,必须坚持把解决好"三农"问题作为全党工作的重中之重不动摇。而解决"三农"问题的核心是增加农民收入,增加农民收入是河北省经济发展中的一个重要问题。本文首先通过观察2003—2018年河北省农民人均可支配收入状况,收集基本数据,确定城镇化水平、农产品人均占有量、农产品生产价格指数和农村人均消费支出四个影响因素;其次运用计量经济学模型和Eviews8.0软件进行分析和检验;最后根据拟合后的计量模型,得到农民人均可支配收入与农村人均消费支出和城镇化水平两个指标都成明显正相关关系:在其他指标不变时,农村人均消费支出每增加1元、城镇化水平每提升8%,农民人均可支配收入就分别增加0.88元和129.11元。本文根据所得结论提出了对策及建议,并结合实际为河北省农民增收探索新途径。     

农地征收、农地流转与农民人均收入——基于空间滞后模型估计

通过考虑空间溢出性,构建固定效应空间滞后模型,并利用2009—2014年省级面板数据研究农地征收、农地流转对农民人均收入的影响。研究发现:农地征收面积每提高1%,农民人均收入将会降低0.039%,表明农地征收会降低农民人均收入;农地流转面积每提高1%,农民人均收入将会提高0.011%,表明农地流转有利于农民收入的提高。因此农地在征收过程中,应提高土地补偿费及农民就业能力,保障农民利益不受损,同时积极稳妥推进农地有序流转,形成规模经营。     

Soil and Moisture Management in Mali: A Case Study Analysis for West Africa

In order for farmers to accept improved soil and water management practices, new technologies must be appropriate to the specific site conditions found in the farm setting and be consistent with farmers' objectives and available resources. A whole-farm modeling analysis of this problem is described. Preliminary estimates of the benefits of increased soil moisture conservation for representative low-resource farmers in Mali are presented. If farmers could improve rainfall infiltration from currently low rates of about 40% up to 60%, and use small amounts of chemical fertilizers, disposable income could increase two to four times depending on rainfall. Income could be increased another 50% if the infiltration rate was raised to 80%. Food grain production could increase 60 to 90% with improved moisture conservation and fertilizer use.     

粮食价格波动对农民增收的影响探析——以河南省为例

粮食价格对农民收入至关重要,是农民维持基本生活的重要保证。文章在分析我国粮食价格波动的历史轨迹的基础上,阐述了农民收入的构成,并对粮食价格波动对农民增收造成的影响进行研究。结果表明:粮食价格波动会影响农民收入水平,进而影响农民的农业生产积极性;粮食价格下降,会促进非农就业的工资收入,进而提升农民收入水平,粮食价格波动对相关工业品价格上涨的影响较小。并从加强政府引导、加快农业产业化进程、建立健全粮食价格稳定长效机制、加强粮食流通体系建设等方面提出稳定粮食价格的关键策略,以期为我国粮食安全及农民增收提供一定的理论参考。     

农户低碳化种植决策行为研究——基于河北省的调查数据

发展低碳农业是我国农业现代化的本质要求和必由之路,低碳种植是低碳农业的重要组成部分。我国低碳农业的发展并不尽如人意,其原因之一在于大多数农户在种植过程中仍然采用常规的农业种植方式。为研究农户低碳化种植的决策行为,该文以效用最大化理论为基础,建立了农户选择低碳化种植行为的效用函数模型,从理论上证明农户采取低碳化种植行为是一种有限理性行为,农户在选择种植方式时遵循了效用最大化原则,并结合前人研究推导了农业种植收入、农业种植行为以及种植预期对农户选择低碳化种植决策的影响趋势。根据对河北邯郸、保定和张家口3市360家农户的调查数据,运用Logit模型对调查数据进行计量分析。研究结果表明,对农户低碳化种植行为选择影响显著的因素有种植业收入比重、预期收益、现行种植行为、农户受教育水平、农业劳动力人数、政府政策以及同伴的种植行为。在此研究结论基础上,该文提出了促进低碳农业发展的相关建议。     

Crop Insurance in a Political Economy: An Alternative Perspective on Agricultural Policy

Lawmakers often subsidize farmers in times of financial distress. This article models this political impulse as a constraint on government farm policy, describing how ex ante government farm insurance can deter ex post "disaster relief" and improve production incentives by countering the moral hazard that otherwise prevails. Absent ex ante government policy, ex post relief takes the form of revenue insurance, which prompts excessive entry into farm production and under-production by operating farmers. Ex ante government policy can raise economic and political welfare by buying out low productivity farmers and offering profitable farmers a combination of revenue insurance, price supports, and a program participation fee.     

贫困山区农户茶叶生产技术效率及影响因素研究

基于湖北省382份茶叶种植户调研数据,采用随机前沿生产函数模型“一步估计”法分析贫困山区农户茶叶生产技术效率和影响因素。研究结果表明:样本户茶叶种植存在较大改进空间;样本户资本和劳动力投入剩余;茶园的海拔、树龄、茶农是否加入合作社、种植面积、户主是否受过种茶培训等因素对农户茶叶生产技术效率有重要影响。因此,提出紧抓乡村振兴战略机遇,推动贫困山区茶产业高质量发展;建立茶产业“三项补贴”,改善茶园基础设施条件;优化茶叶种植布局,提高合作社服务水平;成立茶产业发展基金,加快培育职业茶农,以提高贫困山区农户茶叶生产技术效率。     

收入不确定性对节水技术采用动态决策的影响研究——来自政府推广模式的调节

[目的]农户节水技术采用的长效机制对保障长期粮食安全、促进农业可持续发展具有重要意义。[方法]文章基于粮食主产区微观调研数据,衡量农户家庭收入风险,运用Heckman样本选择模型实证分析收入不确定性对农户节水技术初步采用与持续采用行为决策的影响,进一步考察不同政府推广模式在其中的调节效应。[结果]收入不确定性增加会降低农户持续采用节水技术的意愿,不利于节水技术的长期应用,政府推广对农户节水技术持续采用行为具有正向激励作用;从调节效应来看,收入不确定性对农户节水技术持续采用的负向影响可通过政府补贴和技术培训的调节缓解,其中以灌溉基础设施补贴为典型的政府节水补贴发挥了积极作用。[结论]要降低农村居民家庭收入风险,保持农业政策的延续性和稳定性,加强节水教育和技术培训,同时完善配套服务体系,推动农业生产长效节水。     

粮食补贴政策对农户收入的影响分析——来自安徽省天长市的实证检验

提高农户收入是我国粮食补贴政策的重要目标之一,然而当前这一政策目标能否实现是一个值得探讨的问题。本文利用安徽省天长市农户的实地调研数据,运用多元线性回归模型实证检验粮食补贴政策对农户收入的影响。结果表明：（1）粮食补贴金额对农户家庭人均纯收入具有显著的负向影响,粮食补贴金额越高,农户农业生产积极性越高,非农就业时间相对越短,在非农报酬率高于农业报酬率的情况下,农户总体收入水平反而会降低。（2）农户收入更多地受到非农收入的正向影响,非农收入已经成为农户收入的主要来源。因此,要提高农户收入水平,国家应实施相应措施,推进现代农业发展,促进农业报酬率的提高,并积极采取有效措施促进农户非农就业合理发展。     

浅析国家自然科学基金申报立项经验和对策建议 ——以2010～2017年中国农业科学院植物保护研究所获资助项目情况为例

[目的]探寻农户参与农地整治项目规划设计阶段的参与程度及其影响因素,以期为促进农户有效参与农地整治项目规划设计提供借鉴.[方法]文章通过构建农户和地方政府的完全信息动态合作博弈模型,基于有序Probit模型,对农地整治项目规划设计阶段的农户参与度及其影响因素进行分析.[结果]户主年龄、户主受教育水平在<0.05的水平上是显著的,且回归系数为正;农业收入占家庭总收入的比重、家庭人均耕地面积、地块面积以及地块数量等4个因素中仅有农业收入占家庭总收入的比重表现出对参与意愿的显著影响,以1%的显著性水平通过检验,且回归系数为正;农户对已实施农地整治项目的满意程度对农户参与程度具有正向影响,其影响程度在1%的显著水平上是显著的,说明农户对已实施农地整治项目的满意程度会显著影响农户的参与程度;农村是否成立农村合作组织和地方政府部门鼓励农户参与农地整治项目的程度等因素对农户的参与意愿具有显著的正向影响, 2个因素均以1%的显著水平通过检验,说明成立农村合作组织能有效促进农户参与规划设计阶段的程度.[结论]农户参与农地整治规划设计阶段的参与程度普遍较低,主要与户主年龄、户主受教育程度、农业收入占家庭总收入、农户对已实施农地整治项目的满意程度、村庄是否成立农民合作组织以及地方政府部门是否鼓励农户参与农地整治项目等因素呈显著正相关关系.     

福建三明市林业社会化服务体系调研报告

通过对福建三明市尤溪县和永安市林业社会化服务体系建设情况的调研发现,当地的林业部门创新服务形式,成立林业服务中心提供多种社会化服务,开通科技服务热线服务林农。集体林改后,林农林业投入增加明显,林业收入占总收入的三成以上。用材林联户经营增加,以大户经营为主,出现提供采伐服务的合作组织。经济林和林下经济的生产规模扩大,生产技术服务和产品销售以农户家庭为主体,合作社发挥作用并不明显,病虫害防治等公共服务不健全。建议:政府加强对合作社的支持和管理,发挥合作社在产前和产中服务林农的功能,促进合作社在带动林农增收中的作用;进一步完善林业服务中心建设,强化公共服务职能;完善基层林业技术服务体系,加强与林农合作社平台对接。     

新疆农业资金投入与农民收入效应关系的实证研究

[目的]为清晰识别农业资金投入对新疆农民收入的影响程度,并给予地方政府进一步优化调整农业资金使用效能提供参考依据。[方法]文章选取1978~2013年新疆统计数据,采用协整分析、误差修正模型等方法对财政支农、农业贷款、农民自主投资与新疆农民人均纯收入进行了实证探究。[结果]新疆地区财政支农、农业信贷、农民自主投资与农民人均纯收入之间存在长期均衡关系;而短期内财政支农、农业信贷以及农户自主投资的促进效应不如长期明显,其中农业贷款的收入效应远低于财政支农和农民自主投资;财政支农、农民自主投资与农民人均纯收入在短期内具有格兰杰因果关系,长期则格兰杰因果关系解释力逐渐减弱,而农业贷款在短期内不是新疆农民人均纯收入增长的格兰杰原因,长期则互为格兰杰因果关系。[结论]该文提出加大财政支农投入力度,提高财政资金配置效率;推动农村金融改革,提高农村金融效率;提振农民自主积累资金投资的积极性等政策含义,以期为新疆"三农问题"有效解决提供坚实可靠的资本基础。