Jobless Recovery: A Time Series Look at the United States

We use vector auto regression models controlling for log differences in gross domestic product (GDP), the unemployment rate, and changes in the unemployment rate to show that following a recession, the rate of decrease in the unemployment rate significantly slowed over time. Controlling for GDP growth rates, we find two structural breaks indicating weaker recoveries in the unemployment rate over time, i.e. recoveries that are increasingly jobless. The first break is in 1959, and the second is in 1984 coinciding with the usual timing of the Great Moderation. Using the 7.85% unemployment rate at the end of 2012 and assuming average annual recovery growth of 2%, the structural breaks imply an additional two full years are necessary to return to a historical long-run average of 5.5%. We empirically explore possible causes proposed in the literature including industry composition, participation rates and social benefits. Demographic shifts in the labor force and changing industry composition appear to be the strongest contributors to jobless recovery.     

审计师行业专长、客户重要性与审计质量

本文以中国上市公司2006--2009年数据为样本,检验了审计师行业专长、客户重要性对审计质量的影响以及审计师行业专长对审计质量的影响是否受制于客户重要性。研究结果发现,总体而言,审计师行业专长能够抑制客户的盈余管理行为,提高审计质量,审计师对客户的经济依赖性并不会影响到独立审计判断。但行业专长审计师只针对大客户提供高质量审计服务,而对小客户这种效应则并未体现,这是具有行业专长审计师基于中国审计市场环境作出的最优选择。进一步研究发现,上述研究结论仅存在于“十大”样本组中。     

Brand Name Audit Pricing,Industry Specialization,and Leadership Premiums post‐Big 8 and Big 6 Mergers*

This paper investigates brand name, industry specialization, and leadership audit pricing in the wake of the mergers that created the Big 6 and the Big 5 accounting firms. For samples of Australian listed public companies in each of the postmerger years 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1998, we estimate national audit fee premiums for the Big 6/5 auditors and the industry specialists and leaders. We find limited support for the ability of the Big 6/5 to obtain fee premiums over non‐Big 6/5 for those industries not having specialist auditors. Nonspecialist Big 6/5 auditors are able to obtain fee premiums over nonspecialist non‐Big 6/5 auditors for those industries having specialist auditors. However, this result only holds among the smaller half of our sample. We do not find strong support for the presence of industry specialist premiums in the postmerger years, especially after 1990, using various definitions of industry specialist. We find, at best, limited support for the presence of industry leadership premiums. The evidence suggests that after the Big 8/6 audit firm mergers, some caution is required in generalizing the Craswell, Francis, and Taylor 1995 finding of national market industry specialist premiums. More generally, the study raises questions about the tenuous link between the concept of specialization and national market‐share statistics.     

Estimating the Short Run Effects of South Africa's Employment Tax Incentive on Youth Employment Probabilities using A Difference‐in‐Differences Approach

South Africa's Employment Tax Incentive (ETI) came into effect on the 1st of January 2014, with the objective of reducing the substantial national youth unemployment rate. Under the ETI, firms are eligible to claim a deduction from their taxes due, for the portion of their wage bill that is paid to certain groups of youth employees. We utilise several waves of nationally representative data and implement a difference‐in‐differences methodology at the individual level, in order to identify the effects of the ETI on youth employment probabilities in the short run. Our primary finding is that the ETI did not have any statistically significant and positive effects on youth employment probabilities. The point estimate from our preferred regression is ?0.005 and the 95% confidence interval is from ?0.017 to 0.006. We also find no evidence that the ETI has resulted in an increase in the level of churning in the labour market for youth. Thus, any decrease in tax revenues that arise from the ETI are effectively accruing to firms which, collectively, would have employed as many youth even in the absence of the ETI.     

Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan

This paper studies the dynamics of worker flows in Japan between 1980 and 2009. We construct gross worker flows data using the monthly Labor Force Survey. Our data enables us to examine the size and cyclical patterns of the flows and transition rates between employment, unemployment, and not being-in-the labor force. We find that the cyclical pattern of worker flows is similar to that found in other countries; however, worker flows in Japan are generally smaller than those in the US and European countries. We also decompose changes in unemployment into contributions from unemployment inflow and outflow rates. We find that both inflow and outflow rates significantly affect variations in unemployment.     

基于波士顿矩阵的广东省海洋产业竞争力评价研究

本文在全面分析广东省海洋产业发展现状和发展趋势的基础上,借鉴波士顿矩阵的方法,对广东省海洋产业竞争力进行了综合评价结果显示:广东省海洋经济的"先发优势"正在减弱.增长率较高、专业化程度高的"明星"类海洋产业缺失,具有一定优势的海洋交通运输业、海洋渔业、海洋船舶工业等海洋产业分别列入"瘦狗"类和"问题"类行业.     

Fluctuations in Unemployment and Industry Labor Markets

Throughout the 1990s, and particularly in the mid- to late-1990s, the Japanese employment situation went from bad to worse. We investigate the causes of rising unemployment in Japan, using data on individual workers from the “Special Survey of the Labor Force” between 1988 and 1999. This research focuses on the effect of labor market segmentation by industry on labor flows. Our findings reveal that unemployment in the construction industry and, more recently, in the service industry has contributed greatly to the national unemployment rate. We also find that most successful job transfers occur within the same industry, even though workers may experience some periods of unemployment. Finally, our results show that labor market conditions in each industry affect the probability that a worker will fall into unemployment as well as the probability that an unemployed worker will find new employment. These findings suggest that the Japanese labor market is segmented by industry and this segmentation contributed to the worsening unemployment in Japan. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 437–464. Department of Economics, Dokkyo University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Soka-shi, Saitama 340-0042, Japan; Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J63, J64.     

The Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment in the Netherlands

The rise in unemployment in the 1970s and its subsequent persistence have challenged the conventional wisdom embodied in the standard Phillips curve, namely that equilibrium unemployment is fairly constant over time. This paper attempts to explain the apparent non-constancy of equilibrium unemployment by developing and estimating a structural model in which equilibrium unemployment is endogenous and results from the interactions of wage bargaining and the price and employment determination of firms. We find that the three major determinants of equilibrium unemployment are tax rates, the replacement rate and the real interest rate. The rise in unemployment in the 1970s and early 1980s was mainly due to a rise in the first two factors. That equilibrium unemployment remained high when tax rates and the replacement rate were reduced in the 1980s and early 1990s is attributed to the rise in real interest rates during this period.     

国际垂直专业化与产业竞争力—基于工业行业面板数据分析

本文利用工业行业面板数据对我国工业参与国际垂直专业对产业竞争力的影响进行实证分析,经验事实和实证分析的结果表明,国际垂直专业化分工对我国工业的竞争力提升产生积极影响,但对资本(技术)密集型行业与劳动密集型行业产生的偏效应影响不同。     

失业保险是否会造成长期失业?运用生存模型对青岛市失业者的经验研究

西方关于失业保险与失业持续时间关系的理论和经验研究表明,失业保险的存在会延长失业者的失业持续时间．造成长期失业。本文应用我国青岛市失业登记数据。对青岛市失业保险如何影响失业持续时间进行了经验研究。通过对失业持续时间的寿命表估计和Cox回归发现。青岛市享受失业保险者的失业持续时间要明显长于不享受失业保险者,并且在享受失业保险者当中。享受24个月失业保险者要比享受12个月失业保险者有着更长的失业持续时间;另外,失业者的再就业风险率在失业期内是动态变化的。这说明。我国的失业保险制度同样对失业者的再就业行为具有负激励效应．延长了失业持续时间。     

Uncovering the Truth about Chinese Urban Unemployment Rates: 2005–2012

Using China Urban Household Survey data from 2005 to 2012, the present paper examines the changing pattern of China's urban unemployment rates. The paper shows that the annual urban unemployment rates during 2005–2012 averaged approximately 8.5 percent, as opposed to the official figure of approximately 4.1 percent, and despite the significant slowdown of GDP growth since 2008, the urban unemployment rates still exhibit a downward trend. This paper finds that continuous job creation in both the tertiary and the non‐state sectors helps explain the decreasing trend in unemployment rates. Meanwhile, the downward trend of the unemployment rates could also be explained by the fact that both the secondary industry and the state‐owned sector have destructed fewer jobs because of the execution of macroeconomic stimulus policies since 2008.     

Unemployment of Non-Western Immigrants in the Great Recession

This paper examines whether unemployment of non-western immigrant workers in the Netherlands was disproportionally affected by the Great Recession. We analyze unemployment data covering the period November 2007–February 2013 finding that the Great Recession affected unemployment rates of non-western immigrant workers in absolute terms more than unemployment rates of native workers. However, in relative terms there is not much of a difference. We also find that the sensitivity of individual job finding rates to the aggregate state of the labor market does not differ between natives and non-western immigrants. In combination our findings suggest that the Great Recession did not have a different impact on the unemployment of non-westerns immigrants and native Dutch.     

Uncertainty and housing tenure choice by household types: Evidence from China

In this paper, we propose an uncertainty-preference-housing choice model and empirically investigate the effect of uncertainty on the probability of homeownership using microdata from Chinese cities. Introducing several measures of uncertainty, we observe that after the reform of the housing distribution system, unemployment uncertainty negatively affects the housing tenure choices of high-income families, whereas educational expenditure uncertainty has a negative effect on the homeownership rates of low-income families. We also find that unemployment uncertainty negatively affects the housing choices of local families and that medical expenditure uncertainty has a negative effect on housing choice for migrant families. Finally, an increase in unemployment uncertainty decreases the homeownership rate among families in which the head of household did not experience the change in enterprise ownership.     

外商直接投资对浙江农产品加工业影响研究

本文通过建立计量模型,分析了近年外商直接投资对浙江农产品加工业发展的影响。研究结果显示,外商直接投资对浙江农产品加工业国内投资和就业没有明显的挤出效应,技术转移的效果显著;但较大的技术差距不利于国有及国有控股农产品加工企业获取跨国公司技术转移外溢效应。     

Why is There a Spike in the Job Finding Rate at Benefit Exhaustion?

Putting a limit on the duration of unemployment benefits tends to introduce a “spike” in the job finding rate shortly before benefits are exhausted. Current theories explain this spike from workers’ behavior. We present a theoretical model in which also the nature of the job matters. End-of-benefit spikes in job finding rates are related to optimizing behavior of unemployed workers who rationally assume that employers will accept delays in the starting date of a new job, especially if these jobs are permanent. This gives some workers an incentive to not immediately start working after they have found a job. Instead they wait until their benefits expire. We use a dataset on Slovenian unemployment spells to test this prediction and find supporting evidence. We conclude that the spike in the job finding rate suggests that workers exploit unemployment insurance benefits for subsidized leisure.     

Racial differences in the unemployment response to structural changes in local labor markets

This analysis uses establishment-level data on job creation and destruction to examine the unemployment rate responses of black, Hispanic and white workers to shifts in demand across firms and industries during the period 1980–84. Black unemployment rates are significantly more responsive to differences in aggregate demand growth and wage flexibility than are white and Hispanic unemployment rates, and they are also more severely impacted by structural changes in labor demand than are white and Hispanic unemployment rates. Additional research using the measures and focus of the present analysis that cover other time periods can assist in developing a clearer picture of the contemporary dynamics of urban labor markets and can provide guidance for public policy.     

Energy Price Shocks and Economic Activity in Texas Cities

It is not known how exogenous shocks in oil price impact city economies. This study examines unemployment rates in Texas cities in relation to oil price movements during the period 1995–2008. We find that unemployment in the bigger cities like Austin, Dallas, and Houston, is not related to oil prices in a significant way when compared to unemployment in the smaller border cites, especially in Laredo. Although the Texas economy has become more diversified and less vulnerable to oil price movements in the last two decades, smaller border cities still experience the effect of oil price shocks, possibly through the neighboring economy of Mexico. Our data indicate significant variations in the unemployment rate in Laredo due to movements in oil price. We observe improvements in the unemployment rates in Laredo as oil price increases.     

INSIDER FORCES, ASYMMETRIES, AND OUTSIDER INEFFECTIVENESS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR NORWEGIAN INDUSTRIES 1966-87

Using panel data for 117 Norwegian industries from 1966 to 1987,we show that industry wages are significantly affected by industryperformance. Insider effects are more important in expandingindustries as compared to declining ones, and most responsiveto insider variables in good times. Industry wages are significantlyaffected by unemployment, and the estimated unemployment coefficientis close to estimates obtained using time series data. Thereis no long-run wage resistance, and the main long-run determinantsof industry wages are the outside wage and own profitability.     

Credibility of European economic convergence

Credibility of European Economic Convergence. — The authors analyze economic convergence and its relation to European real interest rate differentials using a clustering method on seven macroeconomic key variables for 1979–1995. The results indicate that monetary convergence has progressed considerably but that there is hardly any real convergence in the EU. They also perform pooled nominal and real interest rate regressions with the individual cluster indicators as explanatory variables. The authors find significant positive effects of external (current account) and internal (unemployment ratios, government finance) imbalances on real interest rates. They also group countries according to economic reputation and find that real indicators remain significant for the high-reputation countries.     

技术进步、效率变化、资本积累与我国地区服务业发展

本文用非参数生产前沿方法将我国1978—2007年服务业劳均产出增长分解为效率变化、技术进步和资本积累的贡献三个部分,并用方差分解方法估算了各部分对地区服务业劳均产出增长率差异的贡献,然后采用核密度分布方法分析了上述三个部分对地区服务业发展的影响。研究发现：（1）技术进步是促进各地区服务业增长的重要因素,其作用随资本积累的提高呈上升趋势;（2）效率虽然对服务业经济增长的平均贡献较小,但却是各地区服务业增长率差异的主要原因;（3）资本积累在不同时期对地区服务业增长的贡献差别很大,其作用随时间发展呈上升趋势。