STABILIZATION POLICY, LEARNING-BY-DOING, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper shows that fiscal policy, when used for stabilizationpurposes, can have a positive effect on the economy's growth,on human capital accumulation, and on welfare. We introducestochastic productivity shocks into a model in which productivityis augmented through learning-by-doing If future benefits oflearning-by-doing are not fully internalized by workers, thenrecessions are periods in which opportunities for acquiringexperience are foregone. We identify configurations of disturbancesand other parameters for which a countercyclical policy maximizesgrowth and welfare.     

Employment,Wages, and Alcohol Consumption in Russia

This article investigates the association between alcohol consumption and labor market outcomes in Russia, using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). It estimates cross-sectional and fixed effects models of the impacts of alcohol consumption on employment and wages for males and females using three different measures of drinking. The cross-sectional findings indicate that alcohol consumption has an inverse U-shaped impact on employment and wages for females. The impact on males appears to be positive but the inverse-U shape is less pronounced. Once the unobserved individual heterogeneity is accounted for using fixed effects, alcohol consumption is found to have no significant effect on employment for either males or females. The fixed effect wage models indicate that alcohol consumption has a small, positive, but linear impact on the wage rate for both males and females. Models including fixed effects generate estimates that are smaller in magnitude compared with those of cross-sectional models. The findings are robust to several diagnostic checks.     

Early Smoking,Education, and Labor Market Performance

This study investigates the effects of early smoking on educational attainment and labor market performance by using mixed ordered and mixed proportional hazard models. The results show that early smoking adversely affects educational attainment and initial labor market performance, but only for males. The probability to finish a scientific degree is 4%-point lower for an early smoker. The effect of early smoking on initial labor market performance is indirect through educational attainment. Once the indirect effect is controlled for there is no direct effect. Moreover, for males only, early smoking has a negative effect on current labor market performance even after conditioning on educational attainment. The probability to have an academic job is 4%-point lower for an early smoker. For females neither education nor labor market performance is affected by early smoking.     

Trade Barriers,Openness, and Economic Growth

Using a long data set on openness and productivity, this article tests the influence of openness on total factor productivity (TFP) growth and per capita growth since 1870 for 16 industrialized countries. It is shown, in simple regressions, that growth is, by and large, independent of openness. However, once the interaction between openness and foreign knowledge is allowed for, productivity is positively affected by openness.     

Exporting, R&D, and absorptive capacity in UK establishments

This paper models the determinants of exporting (both in termsof export propensity and export intensity), with a particularemphasis on the importance of absorptive capacity and the endogenouslink between exporting and undertaking R&D. Based on a mergeddataset of the 2001 Community Innovation Survey and the 2000Annual Respondents Database for the UK, our results suggestthat establishment size plays a fundamental role in explainingexporting. Meanwhile, alongside other factors, undertaking R&Dactivities and having greater absorptive capacity (for scientificknowledge, international co-operation, and organizational structure)significantly reduce entry barriers into export markets, havingcontrolled for self-selectivity into exporting. Nevertheless,conditional on entry into international markets, only greaterabsorptive capacity (associated with scientific knowledge) seemsto further boost export performance in such markets, whereasspending on R&D no longer has an impact on exporting behaviouronce we have taken into account its endogenous nature.     

Migration,FDI, and Welfare

We investigate migration and foreign direct investment (FDI) for a small trading economy. Historically, immigration in small countries has been accompanied by FDI inflows (complementary capital movements). Based on the skill composition of migrants, empirical evidence finds that skilled immigration is accompanied by FDI inflows but unskilled immigration is accompanied by FDI outflows (substitutable capital movements). We prove that the Heckscher-Ohlin model cannot reconcile these apparently contradictory observations. We introduce a theoretical model in which capital and unskilled labor are sector specific, and demonstrate that this model can reconcile the historical and empirical observations on migration and FDI.     

审计师行业专长、客户重要性与审计质量

本文以中国上市公司2006--2009年数据为样本,检验了审计师行业专长、客户重要性对审计质量的影响以及审计师行业专长对审计质量的影响是否受制于客户重要性。研究结果发现,总体而言,审计师行业专长能够抑制客户的盈余管理行为,提高审计质量,审计师对客户的经济依赖性并不会影响到独立审计判断。但行业专长审计师只针对大客户提供高质量审计服务,而对小客户这种效应则并未体现,这是具有行业专长审计师基于中国审计市场环境作出的最优选择。进一步研究发现,上述研究结论仅存在于“十大”样本组中。     

Firm Productivity,Innovation, and Financial Development

How do firm‐specific actions—in particular, innovation—affect firm productivity? What is the role of the financial sector in facilitating higher productivity? Using a rich firm‐level data set, we find that innovation is crucial for firm performance as it directly and measurably increases productivity. The impact of innovation on productivity is larger in less‐developed countries. Evidence of financial sector development influencing the innovation‐productivity link is weak, but the effect is difficult to identify due to correlation between indicators of a country's financial and nonfinancial development. Furthermore, we find evidence that the innovation effect on productivity is more significant for high‐tech firms than for low‐tech firms.     

Labor productivity, wages, nationality, and foreign ownership shares in Thai manufacturing, 1996–2000

This paper compares labor productivity and wages among nationality and ownership groups of foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) and local plants in Thai manufacturing for 1996, 1998, and 2000. Disaggregating foreign MNCs by nationality or foreign ownership share revealed a few significant differences in both labor productivity and wages that were not present in more aggregate specifications. In these cases, there was a weak tendency for MNCs from Europe, Japan, and the United States to have relatively high labor productivity and wages, for wholly-foreign MNCs to have relatively high labor productivity, and for majority- and wholly-foreign MNCs to pay relatively high wages. However, these results suggest that the relationships among labor productivity or wages, on the one hand, and nationality or foreign ownership shares, on the other hand, were generally weak in Thai manufacturing. These results are also consistent with those of previous studies in suggesting that the relationship between labor productivity and foreign ownership in general was also rather weak, though the relationship between wages and foreign ownership was somewhat stronger.     

Comparative Advantage,Trade, and Transboundary Pollution

It is common for studies on trade and environment issues to model trade patterns as driven by environmental considerations. Under conditions of trade liberalization, these studies predict the rise of pollution havens and an increase in global pollution. The extant empirical literature, however, gives only mixed support at best for the notion that trade patterns are influenced by environmental issues. We develop a simple model to investigate whether trade based on traditional comparative advantage may lead to increased global pollution. We find that trade may lead to increased global pollution if both trading nations exhibit increasing marginal disutilities of pollution.     

Marginal q,Tobin's q,Cash Flow,and Investment

Many studies of the determinants of investment use Tobin's q to control for the investment opportunities of a firm. Tobin's q roughly measures the average return on a firm's capital anticipated by the market. More relevant for investment decisions, however, is the marginal return on capital. In this paper we estimate investment and research and development (R&D) equations using a measure of marginal q. We use marginal q to identify the existence of cash constraints and managerial discretion and as a separate explanatory variable. For a sample of 560 U.S. firms observed over the 1977-1996 period we present evidence confirming the existence of both cash constraints in some companies and managerial discretion in others.     

Saving,investment, fiscal deficits,and the external indebtedness of developing countries

This paper investigates selected aspects of the external indebtedness of the developing countries. It examines both the theoretical and empirical sides of the debt servicing capacity issue, focussing on the role of domestic savings and investment as well as the budget deficits of the public sector in the recent widening of their current account deficits. The results of the study do not support the proposition that increases in external indebtedness among developing countries reflect overconsumption. Capital inflows did not partly or wholly displace domestic saving for the sample of countries examined; rather, the increase in external deficits can in most cases be accounted for by expansion in investment (relative to total output). However, the author qualifies his basically optimistic conclusions in pointing out that countries' ability to repay debt depends not only on whether initial borrowing sustained consumption or investment. but also, if the latter, on the quality of the investment spending.     

Quality Expectations,Reputation, and Price

Although the theoretical literature on firm reputation is well developed, few empirical studies exist that quantify the importance of reputation effects. This paper estimates the impact on price of current product quality and reputation using data from the market for Bordeaux wine. A model is proposed in which price is a function of current quality and expected quality, where the latter depends on reputation. Equations determining price and expected quality are estimated jointly. The empirical findings show that the price premium associated with a better reputation far exceeds that associated with improvements in current quality. The impact of reputation on price is disaggregated into individual firm and collective (or group) reputation effects, and the significance and magnitude of these effects are compared. The results indicate that both types of reputation are important, and that in general, the market values collective reputation indicators only to the extent that they are useful predictors of product quality.     

Bimodal issues,the median voter model,Legislator's ideology,and abortion

The median voter model is widely used in the public choice literature to explain legislator's behavior. According to the model, if voter preferences are unimodal, a vote-maximizing legislator should mirror the position of the median voter. However, the median voter model has not been tested on bimodal issues. This paper fills this critical void by empirically testing the applicability of the median voter model on an issue which clearly meets the criteria for being bimodal: abortion. Using a variety of attitudinal measures from large sample public opinion polls and constituency demographics, this study finds that Senate voting on the 1994 Freedom of Abortion Access bill was highly related to the senator's personal characteristics—especially ideology—and not to constituent opinion or demographics.     

Debt Covenant Violations,Firm Financial Distress,and Auditor Actions

We conduct a comprehensive study on the associations between debt covenant violations (“violations”) and auditor actions for financially distressed and nondistressed firms. Our study is motivated by a lack of research on the consequences of violations resulting from auditors' actions. We find that firms with violations have significantly higher audit fees, a greater likelihood of receiving a going‐concern opinion, and a greater likelihood of experiencing an auditor resignation. Importantly, the positive associations hold for all types of firms, including financially nondistressed firms. In fact, we find that, after controlling for other financial information, the relation between violations and an increased likelihood of a going‐concern opinion is stronger for nondistressed versus distressed firms. Our evidence is consistent with belief‐revision research in auditing that finds auditors react more strongly to information that is inconsistent with their prior beliefs. This study provides further evidence on the indirect yet significant consequences of covenant violations on firms resulting from auditor actions.     

Property Rights,Marriage, and Fertility in the Italian Alps, 1790–1820

Does property rights allocation on the commons affect marriage strategies and fertility? We focus on the role played by patrilineal vs. egalitarian inheritance systems. Our approach combines a theoretical model and an empirical study that exploits an institutional shock at the turn of the 19th century, which made inheritance on the common property-resources egalitarian for everyone. We report that – as predicted by the model – communities with patrilineal inheritance rights on the commons exhibit higher levels of endogamy and consanguinity and lower fertility than those with egalitarian inheritance rights.     

Bilateral Trade, Openness, and Asset Holdings

This paper analyzes the relationship between bilateral trade flows, trade openness, and asset holdings in a three-country stochastic general equilibrium model. The three-country model set-up enables me to disentangle the effects of bilateral trade flows and trade openness on bilateral portfolio patterns. I find that both factors independently influence bilateral asset holdings. Higher bilateral trade as well as higher trade openness lead to a higher bilateral foreign asset position. Furthermore, the model shows an interaction effect between these two factors, where increasing trade openness reduces the influence of bilateral trade flows on asset holdings. I provide supporting empirical evidence for these theoretical findings using a data set on the geographical composition of international portfolio holdings.     

ETHNIC DIVERSITY,PROPERTY RIGHTS,AND NATURAL RESOURCES

Countries rich in natural resources constitute both development failures and successes depending on their underlying socioeconomic fundamentals. Recent empirical evidence and theoretical work provide support for a resource-curse hypothesis based on ethnic fractionalization. There is also increasing empirical evidence suggesting that ethnic heterogeneity based on polarization is a strong deterrent of economic growth. In this paper, we explore the interlinkages between natural resource abundance and both measures of ethnic heterogeneity. In a two–simultaneous equation system, we assess the effects of fractionalization and polarization on property-rights protection, and thereby on growth, both directly as well as in interaction with our resource-abundance proxy. We find that ethnic polarization is more likely to have a direct negative impact on the effectiveness of property rights in a resource-rich context, which as we explain may suggest that different ethnic groups treat the contestable resource base as a semi-public good.     

Interest Rates, Leverage, and Money

The current mainstream approach to monetary policy is based on the New Keynesian model and is expressed in terms of a short-term nominal interest, such as the federal funds rate in the United States. It ignores the role of leverage and also downplays the role of money in basic monetary theory and monetary policy analysis. But as the federal funds rate has reached the zero lower bound and the Federal Reserve is in a liquidity trap, the issue is whether there is a useful role of leverage and monetary aggregates in monetary policy and business cycle analysis. We address these issues and argue that there is a need for financial stability policies to manage the leverage cycle and reduce the procyclicality of the financial system. We also argue that in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and Great Contraction there is a need to get away from the New Keynesian thinking and back toward a quantity theory approach to monetary policy, based on properly measured monetary aggregates, such as the new Center for Financial Stability Divisia monetary aggregates.     

Lotteries,Litigation, and Education Finance

In 1993, the state of Georgia instituted a lottery that earmarked new funds for instructional and capital expenditures in public schools. In that same year, Tennessee began court-ordered education finance reforms that were also designed to promote instructional and capital expenditures. Using district-level panel data, this study presents empirical evidence on how these disparate policies influenced the patterns of educational revenues by source and expenditures by function. The results suggest that both state policies increased the state aid to the poorest districts and promoted some spending on the targeted functions. However, the results also suggest that these reforms influenced spending in several other functional areas.