Manufacturing and the Trade Balance

When the world shifted to the regime of flexible exchange rates after 1970, economists expected that large trade imbalances would soon disappear. Instead, such imbalances not only persisted but soared in the 1980s and 1990s, in spite of significant changes in important currencies such as the yen, the mark and the dollar. This paper reports that manufacturing importers tend to suffer trade deficits whereas exporters of manufacturing products tend to enjoy trade surpluses. The reason lies in the higher rates of productivity growth experienced by exporters of manufactures.     

Dynamic Patterns of Trade Imbalances with Recursive Preference

Based on the recursive preference approach, the dynamic and global properties of the two‐country open economy are examined with one good and inputs of labor and capital, with capital being freely traded internationally. First, by showing that the world's consumption increases (decreases) with an increase (decrease) in the world's capital, the global stability of the economy is obtained. Secondly, the nonmonotonicity of consumption between impatient country 1 and patient country 2 is established. Thirdly, with the Cobb–Douglas‐type production function and country 1's technological superiority, the dynamic trade patterns and the asset–debt position are derived.     

Equilibrium, Trade, and Capital Accumulation

The paper summarizes the author's principal contributions to economic theory: (1) one of the first rigorous proofs of the existence of competitive equilibrium; (2) existence of competitive equilibrium with weakened assumptions; (3) the minimum income approach to demand theory; (4) tatonnement stability with weak gross substitutes; (5) a general theory of comparative advantage; (6) factor price equalization with attention to factor supplies; and (7) turnpike theory allowing for von Neumann facets and neighbourhood convergence.
JEL Classification Number: B10     

Preferences for Educational Status,Human Capital Accumulation,and Growth

Using an overlapping generations model in which human capital accumulation has positive external effects on the production of the human capital of future generations, this paper analyzes implications of agents’ having preferences for educational status, represented by human capital holdings relative to the social average. Examining the value and sign of the optimal distortionary tax in the optimal taxation scheme, we analyze the efficiency of the level of human capital accumulation in a decentralized economy. The desire for educational status can compensate for insufficient accumulation of human capital stemming from human capital externalities directed toward future generations.     

Eco-Dumping, Capital Mobility, and International Trade

A small open economy’s optimal environmental policy is studied in a model with international capital mobility and local pollution. The country produces traded as well as non-traded goods. Is it in the country’s interest to engage in ecological dumping by choosing generous pollution allowances for the traded-good sector? The answer depends decisively on the policy regime in use. Dumping is not optimal if the country ensures that the implicit rent on pollution is completely appropriated within the country. However, if the implicit factor reward on pollution leaves the country because it accrues to (foreign) owners of mobile capital, the local welfare maximizing government tends to discriminate against the traded-good sector, the opposite of ecological dumping.     

The Intersectoral Terms of Trade and Their Impact on Urbanisation in China

The historical experience of developed countries shows that the economic development process and accompanying urbanisation represent a structural transformation from an economy dominated by agriculture to one dominated by non-agricultural activities. Therefore it is generally believed that the agricultural sector needs to make a net transfer of resources, both capital and labour, to other sectors in the processes of economic transformation and urbanisation. However, the process of urbanisation in a socialist economy can be negatively affected by its pattern of resource generation. On the basis of an analysis of the 'scissors' pricing mechanism to which the state had recourse for financing its industrialisation, this article argues that this kind of resource transfer did not necessarily favour a high rate of urban employment and urbanisation, regardless of the magnitude of the seizure of resources from the agricultural sector.     

论人力资本与智力资本的"虚拟资本"性质

本文认为人力资本、智力资本理论的产生,本质上是提出了"虚拟资本"问题,是对这些过去被看作是费用或成本的东西进行"资本化定价".在当代企业的资本范畴中实际上已经形成了以实体资本为一方的"硬资本"和以虚拟资本为另一方的"软资本"两大部份,而这两大部份是建立在"资本三要素"--物质资本、人力资本、智力资本基础上的.由"资本三要素"的基础概念,我们可以推解出一系列新的资本概念和形态,从中我们可以较清晰地辨别虚拟资本与实体资本的构架与层次,并可直观地厘清它们的边界与关系,这有利于我们更好地理解人力资本与智力资本的特性和功能.     

贸易顺差、资本流入与中国外汇储备规模增长

本文通过协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,对影响我国外汇储备规模快速增长的诸因素进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,（1）我国外汇储备规模与年出口额、外国证券投资、外商直接投资、外债还本付息额具有长期的稳定关系。（2）年出口规模与外汇储备规模之间具有单向因果关系,是造成外汇储备快速增长的主要原因。（3）外商直接投资、外国证券投资和外汇储备规模具有正向相关关系,其影响强度较弱;而外债还本付息额与外汇储备呈负向相关关系。（4）1986年～2009年间,贸易顺差对外汇储备规模增长的贡献度约为68%,而资本流入约为32%。本文基于实证分析结果认为,采取贸易项目收支平衡战略以减少外汇储备过度增长是最佳的选择。     

我国创业资本运动障碍研究

本文通过理论和实证分析,找出我国创业资本运动障碍所在:创业投资制度缺陷及政府扶持不到位,创业投资主体缺位和游离及其投资行为变异,创业投资决策规则扭曲.并得出结论:我国创业资本运动的障碍并不在于政府干预过多,而是政府干预的错位行为以及缺位行为.     

Monetary Non-Neutrality and the Intertemporal Approach to the Balance of Trade: The UK Trade Balance under Bretton Woods

Previous research on the intertemporal approach is based on the standard, real model of the balance of trade. This paper outlines a more general model that allows for monetary non-neutrality, and tests the general model against a restricted version that embodies neutrality. While the empirical analysis focuses on the UK trade balance during the Bretton Woods era, the fundamental issues are of interest to more than just students of Bretton Woods.     

汇率变动与贸易差额

本文在介绍了中国汇率制度的演变历程和进行了大量的文献回顾的基础上，主要采用实证分析方法，分析了人民币实际汇率变动对中日和中关贸易差额的影响。分析结果表明：与传统的经济理论不同，人民币的实际升值，并不能必然导致中国贸易顺差的减少。     

公司治理的制约、制衡与平衡——从物质资本、人力资本到利益相关者

公司治理结构的本质是企业所有权的安排。在企业所有权安排上,公司经历了一个由物质资本独享企业所有权,到物质资本与人力资本分享企业所有权,再到利益相关者共享企业所有权的发展过程。相应地,在公司治理方面,与其说是从传统的"股东至上"理论逻辑下的单边治理模式,发展为现代的利益相关者理论逻辑下的共同治理模式,倒不如说是,从单一的物质资本主导下的物质资本对人力资本的制约,到物质资本与人力资本共同主导下的物质资本与人力资本的相互制衡,再到利益相关者共同主导下的利益相关者之间利益平衡的发展过程。     

从国际收支角度看汇兑及资本管制对贸易变动的影响

汇兑和资本管制措施与对外贸易之间的互动机制可能会比实施管制政策的政府想象的要复杂得多。无论在何种汇率制度下,放松汇兑和资本管制对于贸易发展都有一定的促进作用,但这种使用因管制对象和各国具体情况下而有所差异,通常情况下,放松资本管制比取消贸易管制对于促进贸易发展的效应更为明显,在设计放松资本项目管制的方案时,应优先放松那些对贸易发展制约较为明显的管制手段。     

International Capital Movements In the Solow and Overlapping Generations Growth Models*

This paper examines capital movements in the overlapping generations and Solow models. For the overlapping generations model, a simple compensation scheme is developed to show how the gaining generation(s) can always compensate the losing generation(s) and still gain in the move from autarky to free capital mobility. Moreover, unlike the Solow model, the move to an open economy for the overlapping generations model has a tendency to reduce the assets held by the capital-exporting country.     

Four Simple Tests of Campaign Contributions and Trade Policy Preferences

This paper uses campaign contribution data to examine trade policy preferences among political action committees. With perfect factor mobility, as the Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model assumes, interest group trade positions should depend on their factor of production but not on their industry. We show, consistent with the 2 × 2 HO model, that capital groups consistently back representatives supporting trade liberalization while labor groups favor protectionists. Unlike previous work, we also measure the variation in trade policy preferences within capital and labor groups. We find evidence that the industry net export position significantly affects labor unions' trade policy preferences. Industry characteristics have no impact on capital group lobbying. The former result suggests that empirical analyses of labor PAC contributions that exclude industry characteristics may be misspecified.     

贸易统计差异与中美贸易平衡问题

本文研究发现(1)中美进出口计价方式不同和运输时滞导致双边贸易统计数据存在差异是自然的。(2)参照剔除香港转口毛利后中美贸易新估计值,1995—2003年美国对华出口低估年均在24%以上,从华进口高估年均在35%以上,而中国对美出口低估年均在20%以上,从美进口相对没变。(3)考虑服务贸易后,美中商品与服务贸易逆差估计值与中国对美贸易顺差新估计值已相当接近。上述结果得到IMF数据的证实。(4)外商在华直接投资增加会造成中国对美出口增加、对美贸易顺差增加。依据中美两国月度数据计量的结论是相一致的。这一结果证实中美贸易平衡问题已超越中美两国贸易范围而成为外商在华直接投资所引致的贸易逆差转移问题。剔除外资企业进出口贡献及贸易统计差异后,中国对美贸易估计值已非常趋近于美国对华贸易估计值。     

内陆开放地区对外贸易、资本投资与就业分析——以重庆市为例

根据重庆市1987-2009年的统计数据,利用协整理论和向量误差修正模型(VECM),对重庆市对外贸易、资本投资与就业的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:从长期来看,重庆市进出口与就业之间存在唯一的协整关系;出口对就业具有拉动作用,而进口对就业有阻碍作用,并且出口对就业的促进作用小于进口对就业的抑制作用;而资本投入在一定程度上对劳动力产生了替代性.重庆市应通过协调产业发展、打造对外贸易新平台、均衡资本在区域、行业间的投入促进就业.