RIM interindustry macroeconomic model: Development of instruments under current economic conditions

The article describes an updated version of RIM interindustry macroeconomic model, which can be seen as a key element of the system of complex macrostructural forecasting developed at the Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences, providing analysis and long-term forecast taking into account existing resource constraints of various kinds. The main approaches used in the development of the model, as well as the most important functional interactions in its structure, were considered.     

A NONLINEAR EXTENSION OF THE NBER MODEL FOR SHORT-RUN FORECASTING OF BUSINESS CYCLES

To avoid the pitfalls of the widely used NBER model, in this paper we have adopted neural networks to forecast business cycles. We find that our model has overcome some of the main deficiencies of the classical leading indicators model: first, the model was able to correctly forecast all reference points in in‐sample and out‐of‐sample data; second, the model can forecast the future value of reference series; and third, the model has a constant forecast horizon. Sensitivity analysis suggests there are some nonlinear relationships between the reference variable and selected leading indicators. This explains why we were able to improve the forecasting performance of the original model.     

Modeling the currency issue

This paper, which includes a critique of an article that appeared in the [New Zealand]Reserve Bank Bulletin, considers the difficulties of building a forecasting model of the optimum structure of the currency (that is, notes and coins) in circulation. The reviewed model leads to predictions that are not consistent with recent experience and there are theoretical objections to the specification of both the independent and the dependent varibles. Alternative approaches are explored, but the conclusion is that this aspect of money is probably not amenable to mathematical modeling.     

市场环境下我国电源结构调整研究

电源结构是影响电力资源配置的重要因素,其调整方向必须符合经济、社会发展的现状及一次能源资源的结构。本文从我国社会经济发展水平及一次能源资源的特点出发,对影响我国电源结构调整的因素进行了分析,提出了优化电源结构的政策建议。     

Forecasting the structure of population expenditures on goods and services

This article highlights the results of studies on modeling and forecasting the structure of population expenditures on goods and services. The demand function properties are analyzed, the information support problems of model calculations are considered, and the estimation results of the parameters of demand regression equations on the basis of goods and services are presented.     

基于实例的水资源预测方法概述

基于合肥市近几年的城市生活用水量数据为例,对一些水资源预测方法进行讨论和比较。对合肥市城市生活用水量的现状进行简要的概述;介绍三种水资源预测方法即指数平滑法、灰色模型预测法和BP神经网络预测法的理论方法及模型;利用给定的资料数据,运用三种预测方法进行分析,通过拟和模型误差对比,判定最佳的预测方法。     

Forecasting student admissions,graduations, and numbers in institutions of vocational education

This article presents a mathematical model for long-term high-precision forecasting based on statistical data on student admissions, graduations, and numbers in institutions of vocational education for the period until 2020.     

中国股票市场Beta系数均值回归特性分析

本文以1995～2006年在上海证券交易所上市的所有A股为样本,探讨了Beta系数的均值回归特性。分组检验和截面回归两种方法共同表明,中国股票市场个股的Beta具有非常明显、迅速的均值回归特性。进而,本文发现,通过截面回归得到的均值回归模型比幼稚模型具有更好的预测精度,使用均值回归模型可以修正对未来Beta的预测。     

Forecasting inflation from the term structure

In this paper the authors analyze the forecasting ability of the term structure with respect to future inflation in Germany. In contrast to previous studies, they find evidence in favor of a nonstationary term premium. Assuming that the nonstationary part of the term premium can be approximated by an observable factor, they derive testable restrictions which cannot be rejected for German data. In an out-of-sample forecasting experiment, the model out-performs rival models which assume a constant term premium. Nevertheless, the authors find that the forecasting ability of the term structure is limited while the real interest rate, is revealed as a good predictor for future inflation rates. JEL no. E31, E37, E43.     

A Flexible Neuro‐Fuzzy Approach for Improvement of Seasonal Housing Price Estimation in Uncertain and Non‐Linear Environments

Changes in housing price affect both individuals and government since they have substantial influence on the socio‐economic conditions. Valuations of housing are necessary in order to assess the benefits and liabilities in housing sector. This study presents a flexible meta‐modelling approach for improvement of housing price estimation in ambiguous and complex environments. It is composed of artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy linear regression (FLR). Seven FLR models are considered to cover latest approaches and viewpoints. Also, ANN is applied to data sets. The preferred FLR model is selected via mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) for further considerations, and then the preferred FLR model and the best structure of ANN are applied to the data set. Finally, the preferred model is selected based on MAPE. The intelligent approach of this study is applied for estimation and forecasting housing price in Iran. The housing price in Iran mainly is based on eight economic indices including currency, oil income, general index, house service pricing index, rate of informal market, gross domestic production in basic price, added value of oil group and construction materials price. FLR is identified as the preferred model with lowest MAPE for housing price forecasting in Iran. This shows that the housing market of Iran is associated with severe environmental fuzziness and ambiguity. This is the first study that introduces a flexible neuro‐fuzzy approach for improved estimation and forecasting of housing price in noisy, complex and uncertain environments.     

“剪刀差”问题的对策研究

本文首先指出了传统的房地产销售预测方法的不足。为了改进原有的预测方法 ,作者结合影响单个房地产销售量各项因素的特殊性和模糊性 ,运用模糊数学的理论与方法 ,建立了新的数学模型并将其成功地运用于实践 ,取得了较好的效果 ,其理论与方法具有较高的参考和应用价值。     

我国制造业上市公司财务危机预警实证研究

本文选取沪深两市A股制造业行业的上市公司作为研究对象,在传统财务预警指标基础上,引入公司治理结构、股权结构以及审计意见等非财务预警指标,采用因子分析和Logistic回归建立公司陷入财务危机前两年的财务危机预警模型。实证结果表明,加入审计意见指标建立的综合财务危机预警模型可以提高财务危机预警精度。     

Measles and the spatio‐temporal structure of modern Japan1

This article explores the spatio‐temporal structure of infectious diseases in modern Japan, using measles mortality data from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Three aspects of the epidemiology of measles are discussed: the synchronization of epidemic waves, seasonality, and age at infection. These epidemiological analyses are connected to, respectively, regional integration, governmental policy on primary school education, and the number of young children in families. In addition, based on the fact that measles did not become endemic in early modern Edo (Tokyo), this article corrects epidemiologists' misunderstanding about the threshold of endemicity and argues that the critical population size varied substantially according to the societal factors of a given community. In so doing, this article suggests that historians can use measles data as a new biometric index for studying human health and socio‐economic conditions in societies of the past.     

The South African city in relation to international city form

South Africa's apartheid‐induced cities are on the threshold of a critical restructuring in the changing South Africa of the 1990s. The reform and planning of an effective post‐apartheid city require careful consideration of possible international similarities and links. This article seeks to provide answers to the following questions: What are the form and structure of international cities; what are the general characteristics of the South African city; and where do our cities fit in this international framework? Research has shown that the South African city corresponds to a multi‐faceted international profile of First World prosperity. Second World central intervention and Third World deprivation. While the South African city displays numerous similarities to international city form, it has obtained a unique character as a result of the legal enforcement of apartheid. Restructuring the post‐apartheid city will have to take account of the reality that the present South African city is intrinsically a deviant version of the colonial Third World city and that it is likely to revert increasingly to that city form as legal apartheid disappears.     

Labor market in the Mari El Republic

The article deals with the problem of transforming the labor market in the Mari El Republic. A model for forecasting the population’s employment has been proposed and forecasting calculations of regional labor-market indicators have been carried out. Ways to achieve a balance of supply and demand of labor in the current economic conditions have been outlined.     

Dynamic forecasting of sticky-price monetary exchange rate model

The Dornbusch-Frankel monetary model is used to estimate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for the U.S. or Canadian dollar exchange rate. By using Johansen's multivariate cointegration, up to three cointegrating vectors were found between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. This means that there is a long-run relationship between exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Based on error-correction models, the random-walk model outperforms the Dornbusch-Frankel model at every forecasting horizon. The random-walk model also dominates the Dornbusch-Frankel model with the modified money demand function at every forecasting horizon except one month. However, this paper shows that the share price variable can improve the accuracy of forecasts of exchange rates at short-run horizons.     

The analysis and prediction of employment in the Russian federation by types of economic activity

This article is devoted to analyzing and forecasting the number of the employed in Russia by types of economic activity. The dependence of the main labor market indicators on macroeconomic factors and industrial production characteristics is considered. The impact of demographic trends is also taken into account. The research on the industry employment is carried out within the framework of a quarterly macroeconomic model QUMMIR.     

Modern theories of regulation: An old story. Danish gasworks in the nineteenth century

Abstract

The Great Northern Telegraph Company was established in 1869 and enjoyed a very successful era thanks to a de-facto monopoly on the telegraph lines from Northern Europe to the Far East. After 1945 the Company changed its focus from telegraphy to wireless communication and electronic equipment. This article presents an analysis of the dramatic developments in the decades following the Second World War.

The relationship between the changing strategies and the established structure is analysed using Alfred D.Chandler Jr's well-known Strategy and Structure concept. After 40 years this concept still seems relevant to the understanding of the peculiar capacity for survival and growth demonstrated by old, well-established firms. In the conclusion it is argued that the post-war growth of the Great Northern Telegraph Company was based on several factors. These were the fortune originating from the Company's golden age in the 1910s and the 1920s, the industry investment strategy during and after the Second World War and finally, the changes of the organisational structure in the 1970s, which created the vital correspondence between strategy and structure.     

权益资本结构视角的上市公司治理探析——基于企业生命周期理论性态

文章结合企业生命周期理论性态,着重阐述我国上市公司治理结构与其权益资本结构的相互作用。笔者认为,公司治理结构模式主要取决于公司对其权益资本结构（股权和债仅）的安排,且不同权益资本结构映射出不同融资模式下的两种控制关系,即“股权控制”和“债权控制”。因此,要提高公司治理结构效率,有必要从公司权益资本结构的配比模式上着手,通过优化融资结构来改善公司治理结构的有效性,降低代理成本,从此实现上市公司治理机制更超规范化和制度化。