EVIDENCE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF BID AND ASK PRICES AT THE TURN OF THE YEAR: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SURVIVAL OF STOCK RETURN SEASONALITY

We analyze changes at the turn of the year in the relative and standardized bid-ask spreads of New York Stock Exchange stocks before and after the introduction of personal income taxes in 1917. Previous research indicates the return seasonal arose in 1917. Here, we investigate when spread seasonals arose and whether spread changes are cross-sectionally correlated with the return seasonal. The results indicate that the year-end selling pressure, which began in 1917, is apparent as downward shifts in the stocks' bid and ask prices rather than as widening spreads. Additional evidence suggests the January return seasonal originated as compensation to specialists, as well as to competing traders, for incurring the costs of providing liquidity during the tax-induced seasonal trading pattern.     

CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY AND THE WEEKEND EFFECT IN S&P 500 INDEX FUTURES

Conflicting results have been reported regarding the existence of a weekend effect in S&P 500 index futures. Given the numerous evidence in recent research that asset returns are affected by conditional heteroskedasticity and have fat-tailed distributions, this paper re-examines the existence of a weekend effect in S&P 500 index futures by using a GARCH model. The results generated by the new methodology support the conclusion of Cornell (1985) that there is no weekend effect in S&P 500 index futures.     

ON THE RATIONALITY OF COMMON STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY

This paper derives the relationship between the population unconditional variance of common stock returns and the variance of expected returns conditional on a well-specified information set. As a consequence, a lower bound is obtained for the variance of common stock returns. The sample counterpart of this bound is then empirically tested against the sample variance of returns. The paper's main conclusion can be stated as follows: the observed volatility of real (inflation-adjusted) common stock returns is not “irrationally” large. The paper admits of this conclusion because the point estimate of the lower-bound variance derived in this model is actually larger than the point estimate of common stock return volatility. However, since these point estimates are found to have a statistically insignificant difference, equality of the two variances cannot be ruled out. Hence, “rationality” of common stock returns—as implied by a utility-based valuation conditional on a specified information set—cannot be rejected.     

RISK, SEASONALITY AND THE ASYMMETRIC BEHAVIOUR OF STOCK RETURNS

For some time there has been a puzzle surrounding the seasonal behaviour of stock returns. This paper demonstrates that there is an asymmetric relationship between systematic risk and return across the different months of the year for both large and small firms. In the case of both large and small firms systematic risk appears to be priced in only two months of the year, January and April. During the other months no persistent relationship between systematic risk and return appears to exist. The paper also shows that when systematic risk is priced, the size of the systematic risk premium is higher for large firms than for small firms and varies significantly across the months of the year.     

RETURN INTERVAL,FIRM SIZE AND SYSTEMATIC RISK ON THE DUTCH STOCK MARKET

In this paper we investigate the behavior of betas of 50 Dutch firms as a function of the return measurement interval. We find beta estimates measured from different intervals differ significantly from each other. As the sample mainly contains stocks that are relatively thin compared to the index, beta estimates from short intervals are on average lower than those obtained from longer intervals. The results further indicate that there exists some variability in the beta coefficients for each interval length. Betas depend on the manner daily prices are juxtaposed to calculate the returns. A way to account for this variability is to average the different betas for each interval length. Asymptotic betas are also computed to show the appropriateness of this method. Finally we show that the size effect is reduced when the interval length is increased, although it remains statistically significant.     

LINEAR CONDITIONAL EXPECTATION,RETURN DISTRIBUTIONS,AND CAPITAL ASSET PRICING THEORIES

We show that E[X(g(Y₁, …, Y_n)] (where E[.] is the expectation operator) can be decomposed into a product of two expected values plus a sum of n comovement terms, if X, Y₁, …, Y_n follow a distribution that admits linear conditional expectation (LCE). We then apply this relation to show that if each asset return is LCE distributed with the market and/or the factors, many capital asset pricing models and the mutual fund separation theorem can be obtained. A well-known example of a class of distributions that admits LCE is the elliptical distributions, of which the normal is a special case. A larger family, not mentioned in the existing literature, that admits LCE is the Pearson system. As a result, the distribution assumption to derive the capital asset pricing theories can be relaxed to the wider LCE family. We also present the relation of the LCE family to Ross's (1978) separating distribution family.     

STOCK MARKET SEASONALITY AND TAXES: AN EXAMINATION OF THE TAX-LOSS SELLING HYPOTHESIS

Recent empirical studies have found evidence that supports the tax loss selling explanation of seasonal effects in stock returns. Using other test procedures, the present authors conclude that the support found in other studies is likely to be the result of spurious correlation between returns of stocks selected as tax-loss selling candidates and the January returns of these stocks.     

THE CROSS-SECTIONAL EFFECTS OF OPTION LISTING ON FIRM STOCK RETURN VARIANCES

We develop a set of hypotheses to explain cross-sectional differences in variance changes associated with option listing. Transactions variance is decomposed into three components: the bid-ask spread, return autocorrelations, and intrinsic variance. Each is investigated separately. We find support for hypotheses that link: (1) changes in dealer transactions costs to changes in the bid-ask spread following option listing; (2) changes in the quantity and quality of information and the value of new information to movements of the return autocorrelation structure toward zero; and (3) changes in trading volume and the clientele that trades the underlying security to changes in intrinsic variance following option listing.     

STOCK RETURNS AND VOLATILITY ON CHINA'S STOCK MARKETS

We examine time‐series features of stock returns and volatility, as well as the relation between return and volatility in four of China's stock exchanges. Variance ratio tests reject the hypothesis that stock returns follow a random walk. We find evidence of long memory of returns. Application of GARCH and EGARCH models provides strong evidence of time‐varying volatility and shows volatility is highly persistent and predictable. The results of GARCH‐M do not show any relation between expected returns and expected risk. Daily trading volume used as a proxy for information arrival time has no significant explanatory power for the conditional volatility of daily returns. JEL classification: G15     

RISK-RETURN SEASONALITY AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

In this paper I examine seasonality in the pricing of the Chen, Roll, and Ross (1986) macroeconomic variables. January seasonality is observed in the risk premia from 1932 to 1990. Examination of the 1932–57 period indicates nonstationary seasonals in the risk premia. The results cannot be attributed to the previously documented firm size effect. Residual risk is priced, and a strong January seasonality is observed in the residual risk premia. The market portfolio is not priced in the presence of the other variables. Trading volume is not priced in the individual months, but appears significant when all months are considered together.