中国股票市场泡沫(英文)

中国股票市场历史虽不久远,但股票泡沫却一直存在,这也成为阻碍股票市场发展的关键原因。本文将以工商银行(A股),世纪鼎利(创业板股)这两只不同种类的股票为例,通过实例分析,比较不同种类股票泡沫的大小,分析影响泡沫大小的因素。其中市盈率无疑是一个重要的参考标准,还有公司类型,政府干预也是因素之一。同时,本文还会比较2008年金融海啸前后的中国股市,讨论其是不是影响股市泡沫的又一原因。     

SMALL FIRM AND VALUE EFFECTS IN THE CANADIAN STOCK MARKET

We examine the relation among average returns, market beta, firm size, and book-to-market value for Canadian stocks during 1975–92. We document a negative relation between average return and the market capitalization of firms, but find no relation between average return and market beta. While the small firm effect is significant during a period of reduced capital gains tax, it is noticeably lower than during the period leading up to the change. We find that average returns are positively related to book-to-market value especially during the period of lower capital gains tax.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND STOCK MARKET BASED MEASURES OF CORPORATE DIVERSIFICATION

This study examines the relationship between corporate diversification and financial performance. The use of a stock market based measure of diversification allowed a much larger database than in previous studies and overcame the subjective nature of measuring internal diversification. Because previous researchers found that firm size affected performance, size was controlled in this analysis. The authors conclude that there is no statistically significant relationship between the degree of internal diversification and financial performance.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EARNINGS YIELD AND MARKET VALUE: EVIDENCE FROM THE AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE

This paper provides new evidence on the empirical anomalies known as the earnings/price (E/P) effect and the size effect in the pricing of common stock. Previous authors have arrived at contradictory conclusions regarding the existence and relative importance of the anomalies, and the intent of this paper is to help clarify the issues. An empirical method used in a previous study of these issues is replicated and applied to a new set of firms—those traded on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX). This approach assures comparability with previous results and provides a sample with different market value and E/P distributions. The results from the AMEX suggest that the size effect and the E/P effect both exist and that the size effect is predominant. These results persist even after accounting for the January effect.     

市场有效理论及我国股票市场有效性的实证检验

我国股票市场近年来出现的一系列事件引发了人们的深刻思考,而传统的资本市场理论已无法圆满地解释我国股票市场现有的发展程度、发展阶段及有效性等问题.为此,本文提出了市场有效性理论.利用该理论,作者通过抽样统计,对我国股票市场的有效性进行了实证分析.本文的重点在于研究我国股票市场的发展层次即其有效性层次.首先通过随机游程和股价自回归检验方法得出了我国股票市场处于弱型有效的结论,然后针对目前关于有效性层次方面的争论,用事件研究法阐述了如下观点:我国股票市场目前正处于弱型有效市场层次,但并不具有半强型有效市场的特点.     

中国股市需要“停车修理”

A股为何会回到"1时代"?导致当前中国股市信心不足的原因:其一,800多家等待IPO的企业和再融资让市场异常恐惧,这些等待IPO的企业继续在发审委排队,按照目前的发行速度,至少需要5年,如此下去不但给市场带来巨大的扩容压力,也会让市场的资源配置功能彻底丧失。如果资本市场不能有效支持实体经济,真正的优质企业无法上市融资,投资者买不到好股票,市场必然会进入恶性调整。其二,限售股解禁、减持的压力让股市资金供需严重失衡,因为股权分置改革带来的"成本分置"后遗症需要很多资金来填补"全流通",来缓解大小非、大小限的套现压     

INFORMED TRADING RISK AND BID-ASK SPREAD CHANGES AROUND OPEN MARKET STOCK REPURCHASES IN THE NASDAQ MARKET

Microstructure theory contends that dealers' bid-ask spreads should vary intertemporally with changes in the asymmetric information component of the spread. Corporate theory suggests that stock repurchase announcements signal management's private information to the securities markets. An examination of dealers' spread behavior around firms' open market repurchases in the NASDAQ market reveals a decline in spreads adjusted for dealers' inventory-holding and order-processing costs. This decline is attributed to a reduction in informed trading risk associated with the open market repurchase announcements.     

“转融通”引来的资金活水：有效对接货币市场与证券市场

在过去,证券公司只是单纯地凭经纪业务取胜,靠天吃饭,而转融通业务的推出标志着—个全新的金融创新时代的到来。     

LINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE AUD/USD EXCHANGE RATE AND THE RESPECTIVE STOCK MARKET INDICES: A COMPUTATIONAL FINANCE PERSPECTIVE

In the recent era, computational intelligence techniques have found an increased popularity in addressing varied financial issues, including foreign exchange rate prediction. This article, through an intelligent system research framework, relates the Australian dollar (AUD)/US dollar (USD) exchange rate to the Australian and the US stock market indices. Information for exchange rate, All Ordinaries Index (AOI) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) for the trading days over the period January 1991–May 2011 is considered in this research. Utilizing a set of statistical and computational intelligence techniques, the research establishes that the AUD/USD exchange rate is best estimated by a linear forecast model compared with the nonlinear and ensemble‐based intelligent system models. This research further highlights that, among the competing linear models, the model with both the stock market indices and historical exchange rate values as the predictors is the best forecaster. Parameters of the linear model are deduced through a Monte Carlo stochastic approach. Relative importance of the predictors is also studied, and the influence of historical exchange rates, the immediate impact of AOI and the lagged effect of DJI are noted. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

VOLATILITY SPILLOVERS BETWEEN THE BLACK MARKET AND OFFICIAL MARKET FOR FOREIGN CURRENCY IN GREECE

The issue of volatility spillovers between the black and official exchange markets for U.S. dollars in Greece for 1975–89 is examined. A vector error correction‐bivariate EGARCH model is developed and estimated to capture potential asymmetric effects of innovations and volatility. During the period under investigation, reciprocal spillovers are found between the black and official exchange markets for dollars. Furthermore, spillovers are asymmetric in that bad news in one market has a greater effect on the volatility of the other market than good news. Additionally, the size of spillover effects is greater from the official market to the black market. Finally, the removal of the foreign exchange controls in January 1986 made the volatility of the official exchange rate higher and changed the nature of volatility spillovers between the two markets. JEL Classification: F31, F32     

DYNAMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND THE JAPANESE STOCK MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

By employing the vector error correction model (VECM) in a system of seven equations, we find that the Japanese stock market is cointegrated with a group of six macroeconomic variables. The signs of the long-term elasticity coefficients of the macroeconomic variables on stock prices generally support the hypothesized equilibrium relations. Our findings are robust to different combinations of macroeconomic variables in six-dimension systems and two subperiods. Also, the VECM consistently outperforms the vector autoregressive model in forecasting ability.     

CONSIDERING DIVIDEND STABILITY IN THE RELATION BETWEEN DIVIDEND YIELDS AND STOCK RETURNS

Previous studies show that firms with long records of paying stable dividends are unique. However, research on the relation between dividend yields and stock returns focuses on shorter-term dividend yield measures without considering long-term dividend stability. This article shows that high-yield stocks are not in fact homogeneous, but that stocks with high yields and stable dividends behave differently from stocks with only a high yield. These differences persist even after controlling for firm size, the January effect, and systematic risk, suggesting distinctive risk characteristics for stocks with both high yields and stable dividends.