高标准农田建设提升农业绿色全要素生产率的研究——基于连续型双重差分的实证检验

目的 基于2005—2017年31个省域的平衡面板数据,评估高标准农田建设政策能否实现经济效益与生态效益的双赢。方法 文章以国土资源部会同有关部门编制的《全国土地整治规划（2011—2015）》为准实验,使用连续型双重差分模型分析高标准农田建设政策对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响效应及作用机制。结果 （1）高标准农田建设政策能够显著提升农业绿色全要素生产率,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验之后仍然成立。（2）该政策对农业绿色全要素生产率的提升作用主要来源于对农业绿色技术效率的提升上。（3）该政策对低分位点、东部及西部地区的农业绿色全要素生产率无显著影响,但会显著提升高分位点和中部省份的农业绿色全要素生产率,对粮食主产区和非粮食主产区均会产生显著正影响。（4）该政策能够通过促进劳动力转移和种植结构调整对农业绿色全要素生产率产生正影响。结论 在继续推进高标准农田政策促进粮食增产的同时,应当进一步强化其在节约农业用水、降低化肥农药施用量等方面的作用,打好高标准农田建设政策“组合拳”,实现农业绿色全要素生产率增长。     

An analysis of industrial–agricultural interactions: a case study in Pakistan

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between Pakistan's industrial and agricultural sectors. Pakistan was chosen because of its status of a semi‐industrialized country with heavy dependence on the agricultural sector. The relationship between cotton production and industrial growth is also evaluated due to the prominence of this crop in Pakistani agriculture. The results indicate that these sectors are complementary, yet industry tends to benefit more from agricultural growth than vice versa. The timing of this information is critical, as Pakistan's policy makers now face major agricultural policy reforms in their quest for continued industrial development.     

日本与欧美农业环境支持政策对中国的启示

农业政策中与环境相关的支付政策越来越多。发达国家将WTO绿箱政策、农业直接支付政策与农业环境支持政策结合起来,这样既可以从根本上解决农业生产所带来的安全问题,也可以加深消费者对相关政策的理解与支持,同时从产业链的上游解决食品安全及农业的可持续发展问题。欧盟的Greening政策和日本实施的农业直接支付政策均以农户遵守农药化肥及农业废弃物处理的相关规范为前提,通过合理使用肥料及各种防治措施从不同程度上达到农业可持续发展、农业的多功能性及降低温室气体排放的目的,并由此获取政府的支持。文章通过对发达国家,特别是与中国农业形态类似的日本农业环境政策取向的分析及与欧美相关政策比较分析,认为中国首先应该完善循环农业的相关法律法规和标准,加强对农民的培训以及明确其应遵守的基本义务,对采取环境友好型农业生产方式的农民给予支持。     

农业支持政策结构变迁的国际比较分析

[目的]在多哈回合谈判再次要求削减黄箱政策背景下,通过量化比较分析典型发达国家和地区在多哈回合谈判前后农业支持政策结构变化趋势,为中国农业供给侧结构性改革背景下农业支持政策改革提供方向借鉴。[方法]使用OECD农业政策评价指标对比分析欧盟、美国、日本和中国4个国家和地区农业支持力度、支持结构的变化趋势。[结果]发达国家和地区积极创新农业支持手段以替代市场价格支持,加快农业支持政策的市场化转变,强调支持政策与资源环境保护的交互作用,注重对农业知识和创新体系的资金投入。[结论]我国应持续加大对农业的支持力度,逐渐减少市场价格支持比重,创新支持工具并强化政策间的协调性,优化一般服务支持结构,加大对农业知识和创新体系的财政投入。     

Decentralization in Peru's Agricultural Policy: A Critical Review from 1993 to 1998

In 1983 decentralization was already being described as the latest fashion in development administration and it has been gaining in popularity ever since. This theoretical concept has been embraced world-wide and incorporated into economic and political reform plans. In this paper, the proclaimed desire for decentralization in Peru's public administration is tested by reviewing the example of its agricultural policy and in particular its strategy with regard to public agricultural subsidies. The objectives of the paper are: (1) to illustrate the discrepancies between the theoretical objectives of decentralization and how it is implemented in practice; (2) to analyse the structure of Peru's agricultural support policies, evaluate the process of decentralization in this sector and subsequently identify possible problem areas and make policy recommendations; and (3) using the regionally differentiated public expenditures for the agricultural sector in the period from 1993 to 1998, to cross-check the lip-service paid to decentralizing agricultural policy in Peru.     

中国农业走出去的基本特征、问题与建议

目的 通过分析中国农业走出去的基本情况,总结归纳当前中国农业走出去基本特征和进一步发展的主要问题,并根据主要农产品（农资）国内市场需求程度以及推动走出去的作用,分类给出针对性政策建议。方法 文章运用描述性统计和交叉分析方法,基于对外农业投资数据,结合中国农业走出去在投资区域、投资产业、投资主体和投资方式上的基本特征,分析限制中国农业走出去水平进一步提升的主要问题。结果 中国农业走出去的主要问题表现为：原料进口高度集中且不稳定,经贸摩擦频繁发生;农业走出去企业将强未强,投资产业链短且处于低端;产能转移产业大而不强,科技含量低;内外政策衔接不畅,部门间政策不协调等四方面。结论 因此,建议分类施策,针对直接消费型进口农产品应进一步开放市场,合理预测市场缺口,利用国内市场规模优势培育大型跨国企业;针对原料进口型农产品应推动内外市场产业链对接,加强政策试验,升级“三区”打造总部基地;针对产能转移型农产品应以科技创新为突破点,提高服务贸易的助推剂作用,推动产业阶梯转移促国内高质量发展。     

农地流转与化肥减量——来自农地流转政策的准自然实验

目的 推动化肥减量是实现农业可持续发展、绿色发展的必然要求,而农地流转的发展为推动化肥减量提供了新的思路。方法 文章基于2005—2020年中国省级面板数据,运用连续型DID模型、中介模型等考察农地流转政策对化肥减量作用、作用机制以及异质性作用。结果 （1）基准模型估计结果表明,农地流转政策对化肥减量具有显著的促进作用,即农地流转能够促进化肥减量。（2）作用机制分析表明,农地流转政策可以通过调整种植结构和扩大经营规模的渠道对化肥减量起促进作用。（3）异质性分析表明,在自然地理区位维度,农地流转政策对东部和西部地区带来的化肥减量作用更为明显;在粮食生产功能区维度,农地流转政策对非粮食主产区带来的化肥减量作用更为明显;在化肥用量分布维度,对于化肥用量位于0.9分位点的省份,农地流转政策实施带来的化肥减量作用相对较弱。结论 应继续有序推进农地流转,提高农地流转比例;应遏制农地流转“非粮化”,促进农业适度规模经营;应结合各区域经济社会发展,因地制宜的探索农地流转模式。     

农业事权划分研究:国外经验与启示

[目的]清晰划分政府间农业事权,尤其理顺中央与地方政府的关系,是世界各国开展农业事务管理的普遍做法。通过分析国外发达经济体关于政府间农业事权划分的经验,可为我国进一步开展农业事权划分提供参考与借鉴。[方法]文章采用文献梳理、比较分析、归纳总结等方法,梳理分析了美国、欧盟、德国、日本等国外发达经济体关于政府间农业事权划分的基本做法,提炼了相关经验,形成了相关启示与建议。[结果]国外发达经济体政府间农业事权划分的经验主要有:一是清晰地界定政府间农业事权,明确各自职责;二是采取立法的形式划分农业事权,将农业事权划分法律化;三是明确了农业事权划分的原则与思路;四是制定了强有力的财政支农政策,持续加大农业投入。[结论]对我国政府间农业事权划分的启示与建议主要有:一是加强农业事权划分理论研究;二是依据国情统筹开展农业事权划分;三是切实推进农业事权法制化;四是努力保障农业事权与财力相匹配;五是持续加大农业投入等。     

新型农业经营主体财政政策需求优先序及影响因素分析——以河南省为例

[目的]探索新型农业经营主体对各类财政政策需求顺序及影响因素,为优化新型农业经营主体发展和农业适度规模经营财政政策提供依据。[方法]文章基于河南省延津等5县调查问卷,运用加权统计频数累计求和和聚类分析确定新型农业经营主体财政政策需求优先序,运用二元Logistic选择模型分析政策影响因素。[结果]（1）河南省新型农业经营主体财政政策需求依次是：农业信贷担保政策、财政专项资金政策、农业生产保险政策、农机购置补贴政策等。（2）达到5%显著水平的变量有,农业信贷担保政策需求分析中的程序是否方便变量,财政专项资金政策需求分析中生产经营规模、是否主要从事加工或者收储业、近3年来是否享受过该项政策、对该项政策的满意程度4个变量,农业生产保险政策需求分析中是否主要从事畜牧业、是否主要从事加工或者收储业（负向影响） 2个变量,农机购置补贴政策需求分析中是否主要从事粮食种植业、政策知晓程度、对该项政策的满意程度3个变量。[结论]完善农业信贷担保政策、财政专项资金政策、农业政策性生产保险政策、农机购置补贴政策等政策设计,因地因业因人制宜打好政策组合拳,提升财政资金整体政策效应。     

Building an empirically-based framework to value multiple public goods of agriculture at broad supranational scales

Agricultural landscapes deliver multiple, highly valued goods such as cultural amenities, biodiversity conservation and climate stability. These goods are often delivered as side-effects of farmers' production decisions driven by broad-scale, supranational changes in agricultural, trade or other policies. Human well-being is thus affected in ways not taken into account in these macro-policy decisions. To avoid this policy failure, there is a growing demand for the valuation of broad-scale changes in public goods by the general public. For this purpose, context-rich valuation scenarios at this broad scale need to be developed which are empirically-based, policy-relevant and understandable by the general public. In this way, respondents are focused on actual trade-offs rather than invited to give symbolic reactions. This paper presents and discusses a valuation framework developed to fulfil these criteria. The approach is based on a typology of Macro-Regional Agri-Environmental Problems (MRAEP). Each MRAEP is defined by: (1) prevailing farming systems and agricultural landscapes; (2) current levels of public-good delivery; (3) expected direction of land-use change; and (4) expected effects of such change on public-good provision in each macro-region. Multivariate analysis of EU-wide data on agricultural landscapes and farming-systems led to identify thirteen macro-regions in the EU. Current public-good provision was described using public-good indicators. Only those public goods that are expected to change or could be improved by available policy options (core public goods) were used to generate choice alternatives for survey respondents. The paper ends by discussing innovative elements in the proposed approach, achievements, shortcomings and possible policy uses.     

新农业政策的经济影响分析

本文在介绍了2004年以来我国的新农业政策的内容的基础上,简要分析了新农业政策实施的直接效果,重点分析了新农业政策对我国农业生产、进出口贸易、农产品消费者价格、农业生产者价格的影响,并据此提出了针对性的建议。     

我国农业生态经济系统耦合协调发展研究

[目的]探索我国农业生态系统与农业经济系统的协调发展规律,为中国农业生态与农业经济健康有序协同发展的政策制定提供智力支持。[方法]通过构建农业生态系统与农业经济系统综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法确定各指标权重,基于2004—2017年全国统计数据,借助耦合协调度模型,计算出农业生态系统和农业经济系统的发展得分,再分析农业生态系统与经济系统发展的耦合协调关系。[结果]2004—2017年中国农业生态与经济发展综合水平整体均呈现上升趋势,农业生态系统得分始终高于农业经济发展得分;两系统的耦合度处于较高水平,耦合协调度逐年上升,协调程度从中度协调过渡到极度协调。[结论]加快创新驱动发展,发展“产品品质高、经济效益高、生态环境友好”的高质量农业,优化财政支农机构、重点支持具有生态正向外部性的项目。加强环境规制力度,以绿色发展路径实现农业生态与经济的协同。     

A continuing evolution in U.S. agricultural and food policy - The 1990 Act

This paper reports the results of a study of the economic content and the decision-making process of the recently adopted U.S. 1990 agricultural and food policy. It is the most comprehensive policy of its type. It represents the broadest participation of private individuals and interests groups, and will affect the economy of not only the United States, but also the ***economies of trading countries around the world. The study examines the economic conditions leading up to the policy, a theoretical foundation of public policy determinants, the role of economic analysis in that policy development, the provisions of the Act compared with the previous policy, and its extensive economic implications. Results of the study support features of a conceptual framework for economic policy of a participatory government. The study also reveals the unique policy process of the United States and the provisions of its price and income policy for the food and agricultural sector. Finally, this article identifies the interrelations between the 1990 policy and on-going GATT negotiations, the emerging importance of environmental and food quality issues in agricultural and food policy, and sources for further study of this Act.     

认定等级差异视角下休闲农业经营主体效率分析以南京市休闲农业经营主体为例

[目的]在政府大力推进休闲农业发展的背景下,合理测算不同认定等级休闲农业经营主体效率,分析当前认定等级对休闲农业经营主体效率的影响,对于完善现有认定体系、引导休闲农业经营主体效率提升以及促进休闲农业健康可持续发展具有重要作用和意义。[方法]基于2019年南京市72家规模以上休闲农业经营主体调查数据,文章采用数据包络分析法(DEA)方法,兼顾休闲农业经营主体经济效益和社会效益的多重发展目标,更合理、准确地对休闲农业经营主体效率进行测算,分析不同认定等级休闲农业经营主体的效率差异及其成因。[结果]随着休闲农业经营主体认定等级的提高,其综合技术效率、规模效率以及纯技术效率等指标并未同步提高;休闲农业经营主体土地与劳动力投入随着认定等级提高,存在不同程度冗余现象。[结论]建议进一步完善各级各类休闲农业经营主体认定指标体系、政策支持体系与认定类型,同时加强认定观念引导与宣传,通过加强政策引导与资源支持,推进休闲农业主体和休闲农业的健康可持续发展。     

PUBLIC CHOICE THEORY AND AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORM*

Recent discussion of the process of policy reform has tended to focus on public and private interest theories of public choice as alternative models. The analysis of Australian agricultural policy presented in this paper draws on several extensions of the private interest model including the contractarian framework, extra-rational considerations such as moral attitudes and the desire to participate. Recent agricultural policy reforms in Australia are examined in the light of those theories. This examination highlights the importance of ideas and changes in the rules for policy formulation in influencing policy outcomes. In some cases the private interest theory appears to offer an adequate explanation while, in others, it provides only a partial explanation of policy change, and requires extension if policy choice is to be influenced, or even understood. An important independent role for economists and policy makers is seen both in the formulation of policies and in the design of rules for policy choice.     

目标价格补贴政策对棉花生产的影响分析基于PSM-DID的实证研究

目的 目标价格补贴政策是改革农产品价格形成机制的重要举措,对于优化我国农业供给结构具有重要的意义。方法 为了评估临时收储制改为目标价格补贴政策对新疆棉花生产的影响,文章基于2011—2018年新疆和其他棉花主产区县级棉花生产相关数据,运用双重差分倾向得分法（PSM-DID）分析了目标价格补贴政策对新疆棉花的种植面积和产量的总体影响、动态效应和区域效应。结果 目标价格补贴政策对调控国内棉花供给起着重要作用;该政策总体上促进了新疆棉花产业发展,棉花面积和产量显著提高;从政策的动态效应来看,目标价格政策调整为三年一定的方案对棉花生产的促进作用显著大于试点期一年一定的效应;此外,目标价格补贴政策对南疆和北疆的影响效应存在差异,对南疆棉花生产的促进效果更显著。结论 在此基础上,结合我国缺乏棉花定价权,目标价格补贴政策可能导致国家财政负担过重,且容易触及WTO黄箱补贴的限制等问题,该文提出了进一步完善目标价格补贴政策,逐步向脱钩的补贴方式过渡,并积极探索财政补贴与市场补偿相结合的补贴机制等相关建议。     

Patterns of development and conservation in agricultural lands—The case of the Tel Aviv metropolitan region 1990–2000

Until the 1990s Israel was implementing a strict agricultural land preservation policy program, rooted in Zionist ideology. This was changed when shifts in Israeli planning and land policy towards the end of the 20th century brought about accelerated growth and sprawling development in agricultural lands at the urban–rural fringe, particularly in the Tel Aviv metropolitan region (TMR). In this article we describe the background for policy shifts and the resulting impact on metropolitan growth, and then proceed to identify patterns of development in former agricultural lands and their impact on conservation, based on a study of statutory land use plans converting agricultural land to built-up uses within the TMR. It was found that most of the plans were converting large tracts of agricultural land to residential uses, characterized by low-density suburban-type family housing, thus reducing considerably the spatial conservation potential. In addition, only relative small portions of land were conserved as public open space within plans’ boundaries, and even then only about half of that was actually effective for active open space uses.     

The agricultural policy trilemma: On the wicked nature of agricultural policy making

Agricultural policy has been seen as exceptional, compartmentalized and complex. Consequently, policy making in agriculture has been portrayed as particularly difficult – sometimes as an example of a ‘wicked problem’. In this paper I argue that agricultural policy is more than ‘just’ a complex and wicked problem. It tends to be inbuilt contradictions in the form of trilemmas in agricultural policymaking, which imply that some combinations of core goals are impossible to reach. In this article I develop and illustrate the concept of an agricultural policy trilemma with Norway as a case – a plausibility probe. I argue that the concept of a trilemma may be a useful analytical tool in analysing policy and shifting policy priorities. I describe the development, and workings, of the trilemma from the 1970′s to the beginning of the corona crisis in 2020.     

欧盟和美国的农业生态补偿政策及启示

目的 欧盟和美国是世界上农业生态补偿政策体系较完善、实践丰富的地区,在农业生态保护上取得了积极的成效,其制度安排对于完善我国农业生态补偿制度具有重要借鉴意义。方法 文章采用文献分析法和对比归纳法,从政策目标、政策工具和法律保障三个方面比较分析了欧盟和美国现行的农业生态补偿政策及特征,并针对我国农业生态补偿模式的不足提出了若干完善我国农业生态补偿制度的建议。结果 欧盟和美国在政策中广泛采取正向激励的政策工具,依靠完备的法律体系建立起高度市场化的农业生态补偿模式,但在政策保障和管理评估上投入巨大,正在寻求更具成本效益的补偿方案。结论 我国的农业生态补偿存在政策碎片化、市场机制保障和农民参与度不足的问题,建议借鉴欧盟和美国农业生态补偿制度中协调农业和环境政策、完善绿色金融体系和提升政策透明度的做法来改善。     

Statutory Marketing Authorities in the Third World

In a previous paper, the value of SMAs as vehicles for advancing agricultural development in developing countries was called into question. The sequel presented in this paper is to examine recent trends in agricultural marketing in these countries, and review current thinking on the future role of SMAs. Some lessons for policy makers are suggested, based on experiences in the post-war period, and especiaiy in recent years. While the adverse empirical evidence on the past performance of SMAs appears to justify their demise, pitfalls abound in attempts at divestment.