新兴经济体的界定及其在世界经济格局中的地位

全球金融危机爆发后,新兴经济体的相对快速发展备受瞩目。20国集团中的11个发展中国家(阿根廷、巴西、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、墨西哥、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、南非和土耳其)可作为新兴经济体的代表(即:E11),其总体经济规模在国际贸易、国际资本流动和重点产品产出等方面具有世界性影响力。过去一年多来E11相对较快地摆脱了全球金融危机的阴影,为全球经济的稳定和复苏作出了重要贡献。展望未来,E11的增长前景将取决于自身政策的调整、国内外资源的供给、国际货币体系的演变、贸易保护主义的状况以及发达经济体的发展等诸多因素。积极推动E11内部的合作将有助于发达国家与发展中国家之间的互利共赢。     

Emerging Impact of Chinese Commodity Futures Market on Domestic and Global Economy

In this paper we construct a set of indices that capture the special features of the Chinese commodity futures market for the period from January 2000 to December 2011 to analyze the general properties of China＇s commodity futures market. Using these indices we investigate the risk premiums of Chinese commodity futures and verify that the commodity futures can act as an effective diversification tool for Chinese asset management. It is found that the commodity futures can hedge both expected and unexpected inflation in China, and agricultural commodity futures are found to signal inflation 2 months beforehand. Finally, we explore the relationship between Chinese and US commodity futures markets in the years 2000 and 2010, and find that their interactions strengthen over time. Our research reveals an increasingly important role of the Chinese commodity futures market in both the domestic and the global economy. Some policy changes are suggested in response to this trend.     

Potential Impact of Climate Change and Armed Conflict on Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study investigates the potential impact of climate change and armed conflict on inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The system-GMM for a panel of 35 SSA countries is employed using annual data from 1997 to 2018. The empirical results indicate that armed conflict and climate are major drivers of inequality in SSA. The direct impact of the two determinants is more than the indirect impact. Also, the impact of armed conflict is more than the climate change. The coefficients of population growth, output growth, unemployment, natural rent, exchange rate and inflation rate are significant positive predictors of inequality in the SSA. The study advocates for a multidisciplinary inclusive growth strategy that prioritises the climate change reversal, de-escalation of armed conflict, population control, reduction of the unemployment rate and increasing informal sector productivity, to promote inclusive growth and reduce inequality. However, sequencing the policy targets relative to the magnitude of their impact on inequality is extremely crucial.     

The Impact of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills on Professional Salaries in An Emerging Economy,Chile

Professional salaries in Chile are here explained on the basis not only of traditional human capital variables but also of variables indicative of other cognitive and noncognitive skills. As might be expected, college entrance scores (SAT), our measure of advanced cognitive skills, are found to impact strongly and nonlinearly on salaries. More surprisingly, ranking in one's high school graduation class raises one's salary 10 years later by the equivalent of one year of additional experience, suggesting that ranking stands for a more permanent noncognitive skill such as effort or self‐discipline. As is typically found, women earn less than men, but, to our surprise, they also have lower asking salaries than men.     

The Significance of Mineral Processing Activities and their Potential Impact on African Economic Development

The question of transforming primary products for export, including local mineral processing has been addressed by successive development plans in African countries. Few projects have been realized so far. This study examines the potential impact of mineral processing activities on industry linkages and growth prospects for countries in Africa. Lessons from ‘success stories’ among developing nations confirm that the choice of mineral processing as an industrialization strategy will be associated with large, complex, and long-term investments, which call for sound macroeconomic policies and adequate legislative frameworks, if the potential development benefits of such activities are to be realized. Effective implementation also requires the avoidance of over-rapid absorption of export earnings. Strongly enforced policies are needed to ensure that export earnings effectively contribute to growth through domestic investments and savings. Also, a call can be made for greater involvement of the private sector or to privatization in order to quickly respond to ever increasing market demands. Moreover, opportunities for greater transformation of mineral commodities seem to be limited by a number of interrelated factors, which reduce to questions of market access, financing, management, long-term domestic supplies of inputs such as skilled labour and technology, and most importantly, the difficulty of making profitable investments, given high import costs. The analysis thus suggests that given the right combination of domestic conditions, gains from trade are likely to follow from expanding mineral processing capabilities as well as from improving related processing technologies. L’importance de la transformation des matières premières pour le développement économique africain y compris la valorisation locale des minerais a été soulignée dans divers programmes de développement. Cependant, peu de réalisations concrètes ont jusqu’à ce jour suivies. Cette étude vise à promouvoir la relation existant entre la valorisation locale des minerais et la croissance économique. Plusieurs leçons positives ont été retenues des pays en développement “modèles”. Tout d’abord, la réalisation que le choix d’une telle option économique ne peut se faire sans la mise-en-oeuvre de politiques macro-économiques saines et la création d’un cadre réglementaire approprié. Ensuite, ce choix devra être associéà une meilleure gestion des ressources favorisant l’accroissement de l’épargne et les investissements locaux. De même, une participation accrue du secteur privé aux activités minières, ainsi que la privatisation des sociétés minières étatiques permettraient de mieux faire face aux exigences modernes du marché. Certes de nombreux obstacles demeurent tels que ceux liés à l’accès aux grands marchés mondiaux, aux larges besoins en financement souvent associés à ce type d’investissement, aux problèmes de gestion et à la pérennitéà long-terme de l’offre de deux intrants majeurs au processus de transformation: une force de travail qualifiée et une parfaite maîtrise de la technologie adoptée. Au vu de ce qui précède, le doute est souvent émis concernant la viabilité financière réelle de la valorisation locale des minerais face, de surcroît, aux besoins souvent coûteux en importations qu’elle requiert. Il en demeure que le succès d’une telle stratégie d’industrialisation dépendra d’une maîtrise de tous les paramètres importants permettant d’engendrer les bénéfices escomptés sur le plan économique et technologique.     

出口多样性对新兴经济体出口绩效的影响——基于跨国数据的实证分析

全球经济的发展出现了多极化的趋势,新兴经济体的经济发展尤为令人瞩目。近十年,新兴经济体的出口增长显著,本文尝试从出口多样性角度来解释出口的快速增长。本文首先回顾了出口多样性和出口绩效的理论背景,介绍了出口多样性的衡量方法,并利用广义边际法计算出中国及其他新兴经济体、发展中国家及地区、发达国家的出口多样性,对其发展趋势进行了国际比较。最后,利用跨国面板数据进行实证分析,得出了本文结论:出口多样性对出口绩效有显著的正的影响。     

中国对外直接投资微观绩效研究——基于PSM的实证分析

文章以新兴经济体中国为例,基于《中国工业企业数据库》与《境外投资企业(机构)名录》合并微观数据,运用倾向得分匹配方法(PSM)系统地评估2006~2010年中国企业OFDI对其绩效的影响,并探讨了异质性OFDI对企业绩效的影响。实证结果显示:(1)OFDI能够提高企业的经营绩效和生产效率,且对于企业绩效的提升具有一定的滞后性;(2)异质东道国的制度环境、经济发展水平以及文化距离对母国投资企业绩效有很大的影响。文章为客观评估新兴经济体OFDI的成效提供了微观层面的证据,有助于新兴经济体对异质东道国开展直接投资时制定出有针对性的策略,以提升OFDI微观绩效。     

An Empirical Study of Suicide Terrorism: A Global Analysis

This paper provides the first venue‐based empirical investigation of the number and lethality of suicide terrorist attacks on a global scale. For 1998–2010, we assemble a data set of 2448 suicide terrorist incidents, drawn from the three main terrorist event databases, i.e., International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE), the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), and RAND. Our data set distinguishes between domestic and transnational suicide terrorist missions. For the quantity of suicide terrorism, we apply zero‐inflated negative binomial panel (country‐year) estimation for country‐specific variables and negative binomial panel estimation for attack‐specific variables. We also present linear regression panel estimations for the impact of suicide terrorism in terms of casualties per attack. Economic, political, and military variables, at times, differentially influenced the two kinds of suicide terrorism. A host of policy conclusions are drawn from the empirical findings.     

危机冲击与全球贸易波动的经验分析

本文对近二十年来历次危机冲击下全球贸易波动的特征进行经验比较后发现:贸易波动的幅度均高于经济波动幅度,同时贸易收入弹性值有逐步增大的趋势,而危机冲击时期贸易收入弹性值呈现明显的"放大性"并有出现负值的可能。因此,贸易增速历来高于经济增速的事实,很难准确解释危机冲击下的贸易大幅度波动。危机冲击下全球贸易波动特征的演进规律及其内在作用机制,应从国际分工演进和国际贸易自身特点入手,这是值得深入研究的大课题。     

非正式制度与新兴经济体企业OFDI学习效应:基于PSM-DID的分析方法

随着"走出去"战略和"一带一路"倡议的全面实施,能否融入并利用东道国的非正式制度环境关系着企业OFDI的规模乃至成败。文章基于2006～2014年中国沪深A股上市公司数据及商务部发布的《境外投资企业(机构)名录》匹配微观数据集,采用PSM-DID方法,在控制内生性和自选择问题后,重点考察对外直接投资能否提升跨国企业创新能力,即OFDI是否具有学习效应。研究结果表明:对外直接投资能够有效提升跨国企业创新能力,存在较强的学习效应;非正式制度即文化、关系网络及人才是影响母国投资企业创新的重要因素;对外直接投资能够延长企业创新持续期,但非正式制度的三个维度对企业创新持续期的影响存在差异。文章为提高跨国公司自主创新能力提供了微观层面的建议,凸显了非正式制度的重要性,有助于中国企业克服"走出去"面临的非正式制度"玻璃幕墙"。