Limits and Cycles of Environmental Policy

The OLG-model analyzes emissions of an accumulative pollutant in a laissez-faire economy and an economy regulated through a government controlled license market. The government either takes the price on the license market as given or sells the licenses demanded at the Cournot price. The first type of regulation is called a 'liberal environmental policy', and the second type a 'monopolistic environmental policy'. The forward looking temporary and the stationary equilibria as well as the pollution boundaries of the mechanisms are studied. If people can choose between laissez-faire and regulation (or between the liberal and the monopolistic environmental policy regime), then in general no steady state exists. Instead endogenous policy cycles can alternate between laissez-faire and regulation or between liberal and monopolistic regulation.     

Frontrunners and Laggards: The Strategy of Environmental Regulation under Uncertainty

The extant literature on the political economy of environmental regulation does not provide a unified theoretical explanation for three salient stylized facts. First, companies voluntarily invest to reduce the environmental burden that they cause under threat of regulation. Second, ex ante estimates of the compliance cost tend to be systematically higher than ex post estimates. Finally, regulators use limited information provided by the industry. I construct a game-theoretic model of environmental regulation under uncertainty with a benevolent regulator. In equilibrium, companies undertake voluntary action to induce regulation that raises barriers to entry. This profit-driven behavior is not always socially detrimental, however, as the regulator obtains a credible commitment to production and a more accurate estimate of the compliance cost. Additionally, the results provide a selection explanation for the mismatch between ex ante and ex post cost estimates: if companies condition compliance on the installation cost, only low-cost companies install in equilibrium. The analysis combines “regulatory capture” with social welfare maximization to explain the curious combination of voluntary action and low ex post compliance cost without serious information collection by the regulator.     

Environmental Regulation Induced Foreign Direct Investment

The last decade has witnessed a renewed interest in the relationship between environmental regulations and international capital flows. However, empirical studies have so far failed to find conclusive evidence for this so-called pollution haven or race to the bottom effect where foreign direct investment (FDI) is assumed to be attracted to low regulation countries, regions or states. In this paper we present a simple theoretical framework to demonstrate that greater stringency in environmental standards can lead to a strategic increase in capital inflows which we refer to as environmental regulation induced FDI. Our result reveals a possible explanation for the mixed results in the empirical literature and provides an illustration of the conditions under which environmental regulations in the host country can affect the location decision of foreign firms.     

用能技术还是管理技术？——绿色技术创新发生环节和类型的抉择

为厘清环境规制对企业绿色技术创新的影响及其机理,本文从企业绿色技术创新发生的环节和类型的视角切入,将企业绿色技术创新分为用能技术创新和管理技术创新两大类及其下设的七小类,并将之在生产链环节（源头、过程和末端）上加以归类,通过匹配沪深A股上市公司、《中国环境统计年鉴》和《中国工业经济统计年鉴》获取了关于环境规制和企业绿色技术创新的指标,研究了环境规制约束下企业技术绿色创新的抉择。结果发现：第一,环境规制整体上未对企业绿色技术创新有明显促进作用,“创新补偿”效应难以成立;第二,其内驱因素是,环境规制显著降低了企业生产率和收益率;第三,其外部原因是,与低污染行业企业相比,环境规制对高污染行业企业的绿色技术创新有一定促进作用,体现在用能技术创新、管理技术创新两方面,并分布在生产链的源头、过程及末端三个环节;第四,其外部原因还包括环境规制作用的阶段性,环境规制对个别绿色技术创新指标造成了先促进后抑制的影响,也影响了“创新补偿”效应的成立。据此,本文对环境规制约束下企业绿色技术创新的激励和选择提供一定启示。     

中国环境规制的投入产出分析

环境规制的投入冗余和产出不足分析了环境规制低效率的单元在既定产出下,哪些投入可减少,以及减少的幅度或在既定投入下,哪些产出应该增加,以及增加的幅度。我国2000—2009年这十年期间以及2009年我国30个省市的环境规制效率有很大的变化。进行数据包络分析,可以看出我国环境规制中突出的问题是人员投入存在大量的浪费,而且在污染治理方面的工作效率不高,说明环境规制人员,尤其是从事污染治理方面工作的人员的工作能动性和积极性急需提高。     

Are More Innovative Firms Less Vulnerable to New Environmental Regulation?

Compliance with pollution limits and standards requires firms to implement adaptation processes that are not only costly themselves but also affect future profits in as much as they modify production systems and methods. This paper attempts to respond to the question of how technological knowledge moderates the effect that the implementation of a new environmental regulation has on the results of affected firms. The regulation selected for this study is the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Act (IPPC). A Multivariate Regression Model (MVRM) has been applied to the regulatory event. The most important implication of this paper is that technological knowledge prepares a firm for adapting to a greater environmental demand such as may be derived from a new regulation. This paper has been developed under the objectives of the CREVALOR Research Group (DGA-Spain). Moreover, it has been financed by the MEC-FEDER Research Project SEJ2005-07341.     

Technical efficiency under alternative environmental regulatory regimes: The case of Dutch horticulture

We consider the performance of small and medium sized enterprises in Dutch horticulture under different environmental policy regimes across time. We address the question whether technical performance differs under these alternative regulatory regimes to test Porter's hypothesis that stricter environmental regulation reduces technical inefficiency. For this purpose, we use a stochastic production frontier framework allowing for inclusion of policy variables to measure the effect of alternative environmental policy regimes on firms' performance. The main result is that stricter environmental policy regimes have indeed reduced technical inefficiencies in Dutch horticulture. The estimation results indicate amongst others that the 1997 agreement on energy, nutrient and pesticides use enhances technical efficiency. Firms under the strict environmental policy regime are found to be more technically efficient than those under a lax regime, thereby supporting the claims by Porter and Van der Linde (Porter, M., Van der Linde, C., 1995. Green and Competitive: Ending the stalemate. Harvard Business Review 73, pp. 120-137) concerning Dutch horticulture.     

中国环境规制、技术创新与碳排放量关系的动态分析——基于脉冲响应函数和方差分解法

作为最大的发展中国家,我国面临着经济发展和节能减排的双重困扰,低碳经济模式成为实现可持续发展的重要途径。以1994—2009年中国环境规制、技术创新与碳排放量数据为依据,利用脉冲响应函数与方差分解法对环境规制、技术创新与碳排放量在外部因素冲击下的动态响应态势进行测算,结果表明:在10年的响应期下,环境规制强度与碳排放量之间在对方冲击下的响应曲线呈N型,技术创新能力与碳排放量之间的相互响应曲线为N型和倒U型;环境规制强度与技术创新能力之间的相互响应曲线都为N型。     

Do Environmental Standards Harm Manufacturing Employment?

A major issue in the debate about imposing environmental standards on polluting firms is the possibility of negative effects on employment. We examine the impact of environmental regulations on employment in an empirical analysis. Norwegian data are used to study three manufacturing sectors with high shares of units under strict environmental regulations. We find that for two of these sectors, firms under strict environmental regulations had a higher tendency to increase employment and a lower tendency to exit than firms under weak or no environmental regulation. For the third sector, environmental regulations had no significant impact on employment.     

Capital-accumulation games under environmental regulation and duopolistic competition

In a differential game between two symmetric firms, provided with a clean and a dirty production activity, it is analyzed how investment and emissions are affected by environmental regulation. If both firms face the same environmental policy, a stricter policy reduces long-run investment in the dirty activity, while the impact on the clean activity is ambiguous. Both long-run emissions of each firm and total emissions decrease. This result does not necessarily hold if both firms face different policy instruments: Each firm's investment levels increase with a stricter environmental policy towards its rival, which causes more emissions by this firm.     

Environmental regulation and love for variety

Using a model of monopolistic competition, we examine the relationship between intra‐industry trade and environmental regulation. The decisions on emission standards set by each country show strong strategic interactions. In closed economies regulations act as strategic substitutes, and in equilibrium there is under‐regulation relative to the cooperative outcome. Trade liberalization may lead to stricter or laxer environmental standards, depending on the consumers’ preference for product variety. In addition, we show that with open trade environmental regulations may act as strategic complements and countries may set environmental standards that are as strict (or stricter) than those in the cooperative outcome.     

The environmental Porter hypothesis: theory,evidence, and a model of timing of adoption

The Porter hypothesis postulates that the costs of compliance with environmental standards may be offset by adoption of innovations they trigger. We model this hypothesis using a game of timing of technology adoption. We will show that times of adoption will be earlier if the non-adoption tax is higher. The environmental tax will turn the preemption game with low profits into a game with credible precommitment generating higher profits (pro-Porter). If there is a precommitment game without environmental taxes, the introduction of a tax will lead to lower profits (anti-Porter). An evaluation of the empirical literature indicates that the Porter hypothesis will hold even for profit-maximizing firms under multiple market imperfections such as imperfect competition, X-inefficiency, and agency costs. These are more likely to be present in sectors with large firms. In many case studies that we have evaluated, though, we detected an element of explicit or implicit subsidies for environmentally friendly behaviour, which is in line with Pigovian policies.     

环境规制能提升产能利用率吗?——基于中国制造业行业面板数据的经验研究

当前我国制造业存在产能利用率普遍偏低的问题,利用环境规制政策倒逼企业调整生产投资来促进产能利用率提升具有重要意义,但现有研究忽视了环境规制政策对产能利用率的传导机制及异质性影响,难以提出有针对性和差异化的对策.文章主要考察了环境规制对制造业产能利用率的影响及其具体传导机制,深入研究了环境规制对产能利用率的异质性影响,并对其传导机制的异质性进行了检验.研究表明:环境规制对产能利用率具有显著促进作用,并且通过遵循成本效应和创新补偿效应两个渠道发挥作用,环境规制更多是通过淘汰不满足环境标准的产能来提高产能利用率,而通过加强技术创新创造新的市场需求来提升产能利用率的作用有限;国有企业和小企业比重的增加将会减弱环境规制对产能利用率的促进作用,私营企业和大中企业比重的提高则会促进环境规制对产能利用率的积极影响.环境规制对偏重度污染行业产能利用率的促进作用更强,环境规制的遵循成本效应和创新补偿效应在上述不同产权性质、企业规模和污染强度下的作用程度也各异.研究结论对如何利用环保硬约束监督管理手段来化解产能过剩,以及在供给侧结构性改革背景下减少无效、低端供给和推动创新发展战略等具有启示意义.     

The impact and economic cost of environmental regulation on energy utilization in China

This article utilizes three data envelopment analysis-based models: a no environmental regulation model, a weak environmental regulation model and a strong environmental regulation model to reveal the impact of environmental regulation on China’s regional total-factor energy efficiency (TFEE) during the period of 2003–2010. To take a further step, these three models are adjusted for calculating the correspondingly macro-economic cost of environmental regulation. The estimation results show that at present, the level of China’s environmental regulation is relatively low, and an enhancing of environmental regulation would lead to a sufficient increase of China’s regional TFEE with an enormous economic cost as its price. That means in China, the nationwide environmental stress is high, and the regulation cost is very huge. Strengthening environmental regulation would inevitably have some negative influences on China’s economy in the short run. Based on our findings, some corresponding policies are also proposed in this article.     

环境规制工具与环境友好型技术创新：知识产权保护的双门槛效应

环境规制对技术创新的影响是当前学术界研究热点,已有大量基于“波特假说”的实证研究。然而，对于环境规制工具是否以及如何影响环境友好型技术创新，学术界尚未达成共识。而且，从理论上讲，“波特弱假说”涉及双重外部性问题，即技术创新的正外部性和环境污染的负外部性，需要环境规制和知识产权保护合力解决，而知识产权保护未引起普遍重视。采用中国内地30个省、市（区）2004－2019年面板数据，构建基于知识产权保护强度的动态门槛模型，实证检验知识产权保护在环境规制工具影响环境友好型技术创新中的作用机理。研究发现：3类环境规制工具对环境友好型技术创新的影响存在以知识产权保护强度为门槛的双重门槛效应。具体而言，市场激励型环境规制工具随着知识产权保护强度跨过第一门槛值呈现由负向抑制到正向促进的阶段性突变趋势；命令控制型环境规制工具随着知识产权保护强度跨过第二门槛值呈现由正向促进到负向抑制的阶段性突变趋势；公众参与型环境规制工具在知识产权保护强度介于两个门槛值之间时，对环境友好型技术创新的促进效应显著。     

Environmental Taxation and Induced Structural Change in an Open Economy: The Role of Market Structure

Abstract. Studies of structural change induced by environmental taxation usually proceed in a perfect-competition framework and typically find structural change to be quite moderate under realistic emission reduction scenarios. By observing that some of the industries affected are likely to operate under imperfect rather than perfect competition, additional mechanisms emerge which may amplify structural change beyond the extent identified as yet. Especially, changes in economies of scale may arise which weaken or strengthen the competitive position of industries over and above the initial cost effect. Using a computable general equilibrium model for Germany to examine the effects of a unilaterally introduced carbon tax, we find that induced structural change is more pronounced under imperfect competition than under perfect competition. At the macroeconomic level, we find that aggregate losses in economies of scale are larger than aggregate gains, implying that the total costs of environmental regulation are higher under imperfect competition than under perfect competition.     

异质性FDI绿色技术溢出环境规制门槛效应研究

在测度2003-2018年中国工业36个细分行业绿色全要素生产率的基础上,采用线性模型和门槛模型实证比较诱导劳动型FDI和资本型FDI发挥绿色技术溢出效应的环境规制强度。结果表明：FDI并不会自动发挥绿色技术溢出效应,需借助环境规制的调节作用,但环境规制强度应保持在合理区间。静态门槛模型结果表明,当环境规制强度超过第二门槛值后,两类FDI均能发挥绿色技术溢出效应,但仅资本型FDI显著。动态面板模型结果表明,当环境规制强度提高到第三门槛值后,两类FDI均能够发挥显著的绿色技术溢出效应。此外,异质性检验结果表明,为诱导FDI发挥正向绿色技术溢出效应,应在资本密集型行业、劳动密集型行业和污染密集型行业设置较高的环境规制强度,而在清洁生产型行业设置较低的环境规制强度。     

Environmental policy in the two-country-case

Summary The paper analyzes the problem how environmental policy affects sector structure, the allocation of resources, relative price (and comparative advantage) and national income in a two-country case with varying terms of trade. The frame of reference is a two-sector model in which production generates pollutants as a joint product. If a country exports the pollution-intensively produced commodity environmental policy will improve its terms of trade under suitable conditions with respect to demand. Whereas in the political debate the negative effect of environmental policy on the international competiveness of a country is stressed, the terms-of-trade effect gives more leeway to environmental policy. The effects on output, export, imports and the other variables of the system are discussed.Help for calculating the results is acknowledged to J. Eichberger. I acknowledge helpful comments from an anonymous referee. I am also grateful to the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft for financial support.     

不同类型环境规制下中国工业绿色转型问题研究

资源环境约束下,通过环境规制设计来激励绿色技术创新及推动工业绿色转型具有重要意义。但现有研究忽视了不同类型环境规制及不同地区不同类型环境规制的差异性,因而难以提出有针对性和差异化的规制政策,进而难以有效促进工业绿色转型。文章在区分不同类型及不同地区不同类型环境规制的基础上,运用动态面板模型检验了环境规制对工业绿色转型的非线性影响效应。研究结果表明：不同类型环境规制对工业绿色转型的影响存在异质性,命令控制型环境规制的非线性影响效应并不存在,但经济激励型环境规制与自愿意识型环境规制的增强,可明显提高绿色技术创新水平及促进工业绿色转型。东部地区命令控制型环境规制并未对绿色技术创新及工业绿色转型形成有效激励,但经济激励型环境规制与自愿意识型环境规制的正向促进效应明显。中西部地区命令控制型环境规制有着负向影响效应,经济激励型环境规制和自愿意识型环境规制对绿色技术创新和工业绿色转型的激励效应不明显。文章对于不同类型环境规制的衡量有利于未来进一步扩展和细分环境规制的类型,以深入探讨不同类型环境规制的协同效应;研究结论对科学设定环境规制强度和合理选择环境规制形式以激励绿色技术创新及推动工业绿色转型具有启示意义。     

环境规制对制造业绿色全要素生产率的影响研究——基于碳排放权交易政策的PSM-DID检验

随着我国环境规制体系的不断完善,环境规制在促进经济绿色发展中所发挥的作用越来越重要,其中2011年提出的碳排放权交易政策是这一体系中重要的一种环境规制制度。因此,在利用DEA-Malmquist指数法来测度中国2009—2017年30个省份制造业绿色全要素生产率的基础上,将2013年在试点省市正式实施的碳排放权交易政策作为一次准自然实验,采用倾向匹配得分的双重差分法(PSM-DID)研究了环境规制对制造业绿色全要素生产率的影响效应。实证研究表明:制造业绿色全要素生产率受环境规制的影响逐步改善,对MGTFP分解项的影响和对MGTFP的影响相一致。在对MGTFP分解项的影响中,技术进步所受的影响最大,纯技术效率所受的影响最小,综合技术效率所受到的影响要大于规模效率所受到的影响,产业结构、政府干预及城镇化对MGTFP及其分解项的影响存在差异,技术创新对MGTFP及其分解项的影响为正,对外开放对MGTFP分解项的影响为负,这与对MGTFP的影响一致。