试析后危机时代中国企业对俄贸易战略

长期以来,中国和俄罗斯都以良好的政治基础为依托,以相互毗邻为天然契机,发展互补性极强的双边经济,这种发展态势让两国在收获双赢的同时更看到了继续发展的巨大潜力。然而俄罗斯在金融危机的猛烈冲击下,为求自保对中国的贸易采取了种种措施,如通过调升关税限制中国产品进入俄罗斯本土、歧视俄市场上的中国产品、对华采用反倾销手段等,这一系列的做法给中俄经济带来不小的冲击。但近些年来,中俄双方已经充分认识到对方对彼此经济的发展以及人民生活的重要性,中俄政府双方都以积极的态度应对两国的交流与合作,两国在多方面、多领域进行交流,主要以政治、经济和文化三大主线为走向,同时两国政府也提供政策来最大限度地促进了两国的贸易合作。     

浅析日本家制度特征的形成要因

日本传统家制度的形成经历了漫长的社会历史变迁,它是封建制在家庭中的体现,“模拟血缘关系”和“经营性”是其基本特征。这一特征的形成,与日本原始经济形态即稻作经济和封建经济形态即庄园经济有着不可分割的关系,这两种经济形态是家制度形成的经济基础。此外,与日本固有文化特征相关的“母权社会”、“氏族文化”、“武家文化”也是家制度形成过程中不可缺少的政治要素扣文化背景。     

黑龙江省对俄经贸合作面临八大发展机遇

当前,黑龙江省对俄经贸合作在中俄两国合作发展经贸关系、共建经贸环境,两国经济和有关政策,我省的突出优势等三个层面面临着八个发展机遇。我们应充分开发和利用这些机遇,推进对俄经贸合作的战略升级。     

加快推进中俄经贸高质量发展:基于产业链构建视角

高质量发展不仅成为中国经济发展的航标,也是中国对外经贸关系发展的行动指南。但从中俄两国经贸发展的现实来看,双边贸易规模波动比较大、贸易结构欠优、中间产品贸易占比低等问题均与经贸高质量发展要求不符。究其原因,缺乏产业对接与合作是制约中俄两国经贸高质量发展的关键因素。本文以中俄能源合作为例,以"能源+通道+市场"模式,搭建"俄罗斯主导、中国嵌入,中俄共同主导、相互嵌入,中国主导、俄罗斯嵌入"的产业链,实现上中下游全产业链合作,夯实两国贸易发展的产业基础,促进贸易与产业的互动发展,以产业链构建加快推进中俄两国经贸高质量发展。     

From exploiting to investing: A survey of us firms doing business in russia

US companies have been accused by the Russian media of flooding the Russian markets with their exports, repatriating their revenues or using them to buy Russian resources cheaply, and, as a result, increasing Russia's unemployment and decreasing its standard of living. Russia, argue many Russian experts interviewed in the past several years, is being badly exploited and its culture cheapened with Western candy, which in 1994 took $5 billion from consumers in Russia. On the other hand, US companies, which have been entering the Russian market in increasing numbers, argue that exporting products and services to Russia enhances the satisfaction of Russian consumers and contributes to the country's economy. They further say that as they become more familiar and comfortable with the Russian market, they change their strategies and increase their investment in Russia. Are US companies exploiting Russia or investing in its economic expansion? In this study the author investigated the entry strategies to Russia of 87 large US companies starting in 1989. These were randomly selected corporations, including a cross-section of consumer goods, industrial goods, computers, oil and gas, fast food, and consulting companies. What emerged was a captivating, historical drama, which changes rapidly from making money through exporting to Russia, to commitment through investment in plants and employment. For example, while the most popular entry doors to Russia have been exportlimport and joint ventures, most strategy changes since 1989 have been to wholly-owned subsidiaries, which usually require substantial investment. Yesterday's Snickers Bars exporter, Mars Candy, created a wholly-owned subsidiary, Masterfoods, and spent $70 million to build a chocolate and pet food factory that employs many Russians. In addition, a greater number of US companies entered the Russian market after the 1992 Yeltsin economic shock therapy and had a much needed stabilizing effect on the Russian economy. So, what may have been perceived as a one-sided relationship has been evolving to growth and mutual commitment. And as the Russian economy continues to grow, these companies will grow and prosper, too. Executives who are interested in the Russian market are advised that this market is real, growing, and worth considering. To enter and grow in this market, however, executives are cautioned that business deals in Russia must be structured in unfamiliar ways, and that they must employ local workers and respect Russia's culture and history. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

贸易发展战略的理论综述——对俄罗斯贸易战略分析

贸易战略是一国较长时间内的发展战略之一,不同的外贸发展战略会对一国的经济增长速度产生不同的影响。俄罗斯是一个资源大国,长期以来一直致力于发展资源型经济,从而形成了一种路径依赖下的出口导向贸易战略,这种贸易战略虽使得俄罗斯经济得到发展,但在长期实施过程中又产生了一系列的负面影响。俄罗斯想尽快的走向世界前列,必须发挥自己的竞争优势,提高经济的竞争力,生产高附加值产品,走出一条创新型发展道路。     

中俄边境贸易发展的学理性研究——以黑龙江省与俄罗斯的贸易合作为例

中俄边境贸易是中俄两国经贸关系的重要组成部分,黑龙江省与俄罗斯的贸易合作不仅对黑龙江省经济发展具有不可替代的重要作用,同时在中俄贸易中也占有举足轻重的地位。从生产要素的自由流动、比较优势、资源、产业的互补性、竞争性以及对经济发展的拉动作用等视角,运用经济学的基本原理分析双方的贸易规模、贸易结构、贸易差额、贸易效应,在互利共赢的基础上巩固双方的传统贸易优势,优化进出口商品结构,促进以技术贸易为先导的产业合作,实现贸易对本区域经济发展的拉动作用。     

Strukturelle Schwäche der russischen Wirtschaft

The economic situation in Russia is dramatic. GDP decreased by alarming 3.7 per cent in 2015. The imposed economic sanctions as well as the fall in oil prices have contributed to the downward spiral. However, the real weaknesses of the Russian economy are more structural in nature. The strong dependence on the oil and gas business, corruption problems, setbacks in privatisation efforts and the inefficient use of the existing human capital require greater commitment on the part of the government to commit to a return to a sustainable growth path. Individual sectors and companies in Germany suffered considerable losses of revenue in the course of the economic crisis in Russia. Overall, however, the effect on the German economy has been rather moderate.     

Emerging Innovation in Emerging Economies: Can Institutional Reforms Help Russia Break Through Its Historical Barriers?

This article investigates Russia's historical and current innovation initiatives through the lens of institutional theory, utilizing the triple‐helix innovation model, which we have extended to include the context of Russian culture. The Russian government has embarked upon a national innovation policy and has committed billions of dollars with the goal of developing a knowledge‐based economy to enhance participation in the global arena, while simultaneously diversifying away from energy and natural resources. Historically, Russia has typically not succeeded with innovation beyond the idea, and sometimes product development, stages. Our primary conclusion is that the inadequacy of formal and informal institutional support has created historical barriers in Russia, some of which are currently being addressed to develop an innovation ecosystem encompassing a more supportive institutional infrastructure. The article concludes with implications for US firms and universities involved with innovation activities in Russia. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Das deutsche Russlandgeschäft im Schatten der Krise: gefährliche Abhängigkeiten?

In view of the Russian annexation of Crimea and its ongoing efforts to destabilise Ukraine, political decision-makers in the EU and the US are considering economic sanctions against Russia. The article analyses whether the German economy would be affected by restrictions on trade and investment relations. As a result, German exporters would suffer from restrictions on business relations with Russia, but they would be able to compensate for possible losses. Russian gas export interruptions, however, would be a more severe problem. Due to Russia’s dependence on revenues from the export of natural resources as well as on technology imports from Western countries, the Russian economy would be hit particularly hard.     

International joint ventures in Russia: Cultures' influences on alliance success

This paper investigates the influence of organizational culture on the strategic success of International Joint Ventures (IJVs) in Russia and the importance of cultural ‘fit’ of alliance partners within this transition economy. Difficult-to-access and rare data is gathered from a sample of IJVs manager in Russia in a strategy-as-practice approach. Questionnaires and in-depth interviews reveal different clusters of values and practices amongst managers and, contrary to previous research, the study suggests that within a transition economy values are not universally applied but influenced by tradition. Adopted organizational culture is also found to be dependent on the dominant IJV stake holding with culture influencing perceived IJV strategic performance. An element of congruency is identified between tradition and openness to change values.     

Overcoming the Russian transformation crisis

Russia's attempts at transformation into a market economy have so far resulted in a prolonged and steep economic decline. This is in stark contrast to developments in other formerly socialist countries where an initial period of economic decline was followed by strong growth. What are the reasons behind the adverse development of the Russian economy? What policy changes are required to bring Russia stability, growth and prosperity?     

供给侧改革背景下新兴经济体发展现实比较及延伸思考

经济全球化促进了经济要素全球范围的广泛流动,也催生出了一些发展速度快、对全球影响较大的新兴经济体。研究发现:中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非这些新兴经济体的人均GDP在时间上发生了显著性变化,各个新兴经济体间的人均GDP也存在显著性差别。近十年间,中国经济增长基本保持了平稳状态,GDP的增长率波动不大,巴西、俄罗斯、印度以及南非经济增长波动均较大;中国与其他新兴经济体的货物与服务进出口、国外直接投资均没有显著的相关关系,彼此间影响也不明显。未来中国需要进一步优化产业结构,加强生态、制度环境建设,推动经济社会的全面进步;要加快新一轮高水平对外开放,拓展国际合作空间,建成开放型经济体;促进机会平等,走包容性经济增长之路,实现经济社会可持续发展。     

Ethical turnarounds and transformational leadership: A global imperative for corporate social responsibility

A company's social responsibility grounded in appropriate ethical values. Accountability for this foundation lies with the corporate leadership, which is responsible for establishing organizational values and culture. When a breach occurs in this leadership process, or when a transition‐economy organization is entering the global arena, an ethical turnaround is generally needed. We created this term to describe the leadership process needed to regain, or initially establish, corporate credibility and legitimacy in the eyes of stakeholders. These leadership requirements go beyond those needed in a strategic turnaround since they must help resuscitate an organization's cusses transformational leadership during ethical turnarounds in developed economies (focusing on Tyco) and in transition economies (focusing on Troika Dialog in Russia). We conclude with implications for business leaders in both economic settings. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

俄罗斯与东北亚国家能源合作的前景分析

在当今世界经济发展的大趋势下,能源出口在俄罗斯对外贸易中的地位日益加强。同时,它也是俄寻求加入东北亚各国经济进程的有力工具。而俄罗斯与在世界经济发展中居领先地位的东北亚国家的能源合作,也符合这些国家能源进口多元化的战略。由于不同的历史渊源,俄罗斯在中、日、韩这三个东北亚主要国家能源战略中的作用也不尽相同。     

基于“核心—边缘”理论的黑龙江对俄境外农业开发思考

核心边缘理论的逻辑前提是相邻区域发展中存在一个二元经济结构,二元经济间通过"极化"、"扩散"效应,可以实现区域经济的和谐发展。黑龙江省与俄罗斯接壤地区的二元经济结构,便于俄方承接中方的先进农业生产方式。利用黑龙江省大农业优势发展对俄农业可以有效利用国内国外两种资源和两个市场。黑龙江省通过涉农生产要素、生产方式、生产平台、流通渠道及控制手段的扩散,可有效开展对俄农业开发,通过农业品种、资源及多功能性的统筹,实现区域和谐发展。     

俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响

20世纪以来,俄罗斯经历了乌克兰危机、西方经济制裁、国际油价下跌等外部因素的冲击,经济安全遭受严重威胁,在此背景下的俄罗斯政治经济战略势必波及中俄经贸合作,进而影响丝绸之路经济带建设。本文从贸易合作和对外直接投资合作方面,基于计量模型剖析俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响过程及关联因素。研究表明俄罗斯国家经济安全危机提升了中国在俄贸易伙伴国中的地位,促使俄与中国产能合作的意愿强烈,直接投资和产能合作逐渐成为推动中俄经贸合作向纵深发展的强劲动力;俄罗斯国家经济安全危机对中俄罗贸易有显著负向影响,中俄政治关系对贸易合作有显著正向影响。这是提高中国对俄罗斯投资、提升高新技术产品在俄罗斯进口比重的机遇期,亦是推进丝绸之路经济带的重要机遇期。经济强势崛起的俄罗斯和经济体系全面崩溃的俄罗斯对丝绸之路经济带的推进均有重要影响,在与其发展战略协作伙伴关系过程中,中国恰到好处地拿捏平衡其中的大国利益边界至关重要。     

WTO背景下扩大黑龙江省对俄产业内贸易规模的对策研究

近年来中俄双边贸易增长迅速,其中黑龙江省连续多年对俄贸易额占我国对俄贸易总额的25%左右,是全国对俄贸易第一大省。俄罗斯加入WTO之后,市场正式与世界经济接轨,市场环境进一步规范化,经济竞争力进一步提升。这将给中俄经贸合作带来新的机遇,同时也使两国的合作面临新的挑战。中俄贸易以互补型产业间贸易为主,限制了中俄经贸合作的深度和广度。因此,随着俄加入WTO,黑龙江省应及时调整对俄经贸合作的战略、结构和模式,抓住机遇,迎接挑战,努力寻找新的增长点,搭建新的互认互惠桥梁,实现互利共赢、共同发展。其中,产业内贸易开拓了一条实现中俄双边贸易利益的新途径。     

Informal employment in service industries: estimations from nationally representative Labour Force Survey data of Russian Federation

ABSTRACT

As the largest post-Soviet transition economy with substantial labour immigration and a considerable informal-sector Russia serves as an interesting case to study informal employment in the service and non-service economic sectors. The study fills the gap of the lack of empirical papers grounded on the reliable massive individual data. This article discusses almost twenty years’ dynamics of informal employment rates within the service and non-service industries based on the nationally representative Labour Force Survey primary data, collected quarterly for 2010–2015 with a sample size of about 200 thousand respondents per quarter. The unexpected finding is that the rate of informal employment is higher in non-service economic activities. Informal workers in the service sector in Russia are typically male, not very young, without tertiary education, living in urban areas. The paper also provides a comparative regression analysis on the probability of being informally employed in the service and non-service sectors.     

上海合作组织框架下中国与中亚国家经济合作

摘要：随着中亚局势的变化和中美俄三国均衡的消长,地区安全合作与区域经济合作并重将演化为上海合作组织多边框架存在的根本理由。中俄主导的上海合作组织应正视诸多变化,适时调整上海合作组织定位,将经济合作置于地区安全同等重要位置,在上海合作组织框架下积极拓展中国与中亚国家以及俄罗斯的经济合作,这将为这一地区带来和平和希望。