Women's unemployment during transition Evidence from Czech and Slovak micro-data

We analyse women’s weekly probabilities of leaving unemployment in the Czech and Slovak Republics (CR and SR) in order to investigate three questions: 1) Why are unemployment rates much lower in the CR than the SR?; 2) Does the unemployment compensation scheme (UCS) substantially lengthen unemploy-mentspells?; and 3) Why are women’s unemployment rates higher than men’s? We find that differences in the behaviour of the individuals, employers and institutions in the SR and CR (as measured by differences in coefficients) play a larger role in determining the CR’s shorter female unemployment spells than do differences in measured demand and demographic variables. The UCS has only a moderate effect on duration and its impact is greater in the CR. The differences between men’s and women’s spells (in each republic) are explained more by differences in coefficients than by differences in observed characteristics. JEL classification: C41, H53, J23, J64, O15, P2.     

The effect of shocks to labour market flows on unemployment and participation rates

This article presents an analysis of labour market dynamics, in particular of flows in the labour market and how they interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states – employment and unemployment – we consider a third state – out of the labour force. Second, we study net rather than gross flows, where net refers to the balance of flows between any two labour market states. Distinguishing a third state is important because the labour market flows to and from that state are quantitatively important. Focusing on net flows simplifies the complexity of interactions between the flows and allows us to perform a dynamic analysis in a structural vector-autoregression framework. We find that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drives the unemployment rate and the participation rate in opposite directions while a shock to the net flow from not in the labour force to unemployment drives the rates in the same direction.     

Layoffs,recalls and unemployment duration: evidence from Sweden

The question addressed in this paper is whether the possibility of exit from unemployment to the previous employer affects the duration of unemployment spells in Sweden. The empirical analysis is performed using an employee–employer dataset that includes a number of enterprise characteristics and provides information on individual tenure. The econometric approach employs estimation of a competing risk duration model to distinguish between exits to the previous employer and exits to a new job. The findings suggest that greater tenure raises the risk of transition to the previous employer, while high education levels increase the risk of obtaining a new job. Moreover, the impact of benefit exhaustion is observed only for transitions to new employment.     

Labour market discrimination and the macroeconomy

We measure the discriminatory ethnic and gender wage gaps in Georgia. Gender wage discrimination is larger than the ethnic wage discrimination. We use the estimated gaps in a general‐to‐specific vector autoregression framework to test for Granger causality between discrimination and growth, and estimate the long‐run effects of each variable on the other. Granger causality is found to be bidirectional, but it is only the net long‐run effect of discrimination on growth that is a large and highly significant negative effect. In the long‐run, a 10% increase in ethnic (gender) discrimination reduces economic growth by 3%–4% (8%–10%). Additionally, ethnic and gender wage differentials are found to be counter‐cyclical.     

Estimating the relationship between labour market tightness,unemployment insurance benefits and union election activity

Using detailed data from the US National Labor Relations Board, we find labour market tightness, defined as the ratio of job vacancies to the number of unemployed, has a positive relationship with the likelihood of voting in favour of union representation. Specifically, a 1 SD increase in labour market tightness increases Vote Share in favour and the likelihood of union certification by roughly 1.5% and 3%, respectively. We also find that length of unemployment insurance benefits has a positive relationship with Vote Share in favour. Taken together, these results suggest that workers are more comfortable engaging in pro-union election behaviours when exogenous conditions, like labour market tightness and unemployment insurance benefit duration, shift in a way that more favourably insulates them from unemployment and income risk.     

Potential duration of unemployment benefits and labor market outcomes for older workers with health impairments in Germany

This research note estimates the causal effects of a cut in the potential duration of regular unemployment benefits for older workers in Germany on the labor market outcomes of individuals with health impairments. The analyzed reform is a natural experiment that allows a difference-in-differences strategy with treatment intensity. The results provide evidence for a significant decrease in the number of days in regular unemployment benefits and an increase in the number of days in employment. However, the results also suggest a significant increase in the number of days in unemployment (social) assistance, which are granted upon exhaustion of regular unemployment benefits.     

The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Active Labour Market Policies in Poland

Following the predominance of macroeconomic stabilisation policies and passive income support schemes in the first phase of transition, active labour market policies (ALMPs) have now come to play a more important role in transition economies. This paper looks at the Polish experience and provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of ALMPs. We use the Polish Labour Force Survey of August 1994 in combination with its Supplement on the Evaluation of Labour Market Policies together with data on ALMP expenditure at the regional (voivodship) level. The macroeconometric analysis of the relationship between labour market flows and ALMP expenditure shows no significant effects. The microeconometric analysis reveals that ALMPs are not particularly well targeted at the problem groups in the labour market. That is, women and people with basic vocational education do not receive enough attention. As to the effectiveness of ALMPs, the paper shows that former participants cannot expect to find employment more easily than their peers who have been unemployed but have not been in a programme. Subjective evaluations of former participants also suggest that ALMPs, but especially works programmes, have not improved their chances to find a job. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

New Labour at work: long-term unemployment and the geography of opportunity

New Labour has placed great faith in active labour market policiesto address problems of long-term unemployment and poverty. Thispaper considers the effectiveness of welfare-to-work programmesin light of persistent regional employment disparities withinthe UK. It is argued that the government has proceeded froma flawed analysis of the causes and magnitude of long-term unemployment,framing the issue in terms of ‘worklessness’ andneglecting demand-side concerns of job availability and jobquality.     

Beveridge's analysis of unemployment in 1909: the reserve of labour

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide a rational reconstruction of Beveridge's theory of unemployment published in 1909. First and foremost, it shows that his theory of unemployment is coherent – what Beveridge refers to as ‘the reserve of labour’ represents ‘unemployment’ as a whole; unemployment is due to the imperfection of the labour market and associated friction and the organisation of the labour market is necessary. Second, it suggests that as early as 1909, a negative relationship already existed between unemployment and job vacancies and that the segmentation of the labour market and imperfect information are key factors of friction. The first part of the paper provides a reconstruction of Beveridge's theory of the reserve of labour (1909) including causes and factors of unemployment and unemployment policies. The second part shows that certain founding principles of the ‘Beveridge curve’ (Beveridge 1944 Beveridge, W. H. 1944 [1953]. Full Employment in a Free Society, London: George Allen and Unwin.  [Google Scholar] [1953]) were already to be found in his 1909 book and that links can be established between Beveridge (1909 Beveridge, W. H. 1909. Unemployment: A Problem of Industry, London: Longmans, Green and Co.  [Google Scholar]), Phelps (1970 Phelps, E. S. 1970. The new microeconomic in inflation and employment theory. The American Economic Review, 59(2): 147–60. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Pissarides (2000 Pissarides, C. A. 2000. Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.  [Google Scholar]).     

Real and perceived losses from unemployment: a cross-country study

This article compares the Unemployment Rate (UR) as a measure of inefficiency with several other potential measures across 18 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Results show that the UR is not a very good measure of relative inefficiency between countries, it overestimates the number of individuals who would get jobs if the market is clear, the Dead Weight Losses (DWLs) of UR are remarkably low even in high unemployment countries and the aggregate perceived monetary losses by the unemployed as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are also uniformly low, although inframarginal individuals in some countries may perceive their losses to be high.     

Earnings inequality and unemployment in South Africa

Unemployment and earnings inequality have moved together remarkably closely in South Africa in recent years. This article explores the relationship between unemployment and earnings inequality in South Africa, investigating the extent to which changes in unemployment can account for changes in earnings inequality. Static and dynamic decompositions of earnings inequality by employment status reveal the centrality of unemployment in accounting for the both level and trend of earnings inequality. The distribution of employment in the formal and informal sectors is found to be of lesser importance in explaining earnings inequality, as is wage dispersion within each of these categories. The findings point to the central importance of reducing unemployment in South Africa if the extremely high levels of inequality are to be reduced.     

Trade in quality goods,trading regimes and unemployment in transition economies1

One of the most important consequences of the transition in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has been the dismantling of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). It is argued in this paper that the abrupt loss of trading partners for the former CMEA countries and the Newly Independent States (NIS) are partly responsible for the ensuing contraction of output and the emergence of unemployment. A model in which trade is conducted in vertically-differentiated products is constructed with the implication that the dismantling of ‘clearing trade’arrangements among CMEA countries may make unemployment more than just a short-term phenomenon.     

Labour market characteristics and profitability: An econometric analysis of Hugarian exporting firms, 1986-951

This paper follows through an aspect of microeconomic restructuring in Hungary during the transition period. This restructuring brought about substantial changes in the behaviour of all economic agents. Our study combines labour market and corporate financial information to explore the effect of the quality of labour employed on the profitability of the firm. The quality of labour is measured as that portion of wage differentials that cannot be explained by a standard human capital model. The profitability of Hungarian exporting firms can be explained by economic factors during transition. In addition the quality of labour, export share, wage and bank costs, payables, receivables, foreign ownership, inventories, amortization and equity are all significant explanatory variables.     

Labour market institutions and labour market performance

This paper studies the relationship between labour market institutions and policies and labour market performance using a new and unique dataset that covers the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which in the last two decades experienced radical economic and institutional transformations. We document a clear trend towards liberalization of labour markets, especially in the countries of the former Soviet Union, but also substantial differences across the countries studied. Our econometric analysis implies that institutions matter for labour market outcomes, and that deregulation of labour markets improves their performance. The analysis also suggests several significant interactions between different institutions, which are in line with the idea of beneficial effects of reform complementarity and broad reform packages.     

Diversity and intensity of information and communication technologies use and product innovation: evidence from Chilean micro-data

This study uses data from two waves of the Encuesta Longitudinal de Empresas (ELE) to examine the relationship between information and communication technologies (ICT) use and product innovation in Chilean firms. Our findings sustain the hypothesis that ICT act as enablers of innovation. However, the impacts of ICT on product innovation depend on the type of application considered. In particular, we find positive and significant association between production-integrating ICT, i.e. administrative and industry-specific software, and product innovation, while this is not the case for market-oriented ICT such as e-commerce or client relationship manager software. Finally, the results show that not every ICT combination is beneficial for innovation: firms that show a basic use of ICT are not associated with a better likelihood of introducing innovation, while firms with an advanced use of ICT are those with the more likelihood of innovating.     

Venture capital availability and labour market performance around the world

This article studies the effects of venture capital on the performance of the labour market. Using data from a much larger sample of countries than previous papers, it finds more readily available venture capital to favourably affect both the unemployment and the employment rate. The magnitude of the estimated effects is substantial. We control for both endogeneity of venture capital availability and most major determinants of labour market performance. The results are robust to variations in specification.     

Pitfalls in the modeling of labor market flows: a reappraisal

ABSTRACT

We discuss the relevance of the internationally adopted methodology for modelling labour market flows and comparing labour market flexibility. This is based on a two-state labour market model that neglects inactivity and uses aggregate stock data to derive transition rates. Traditionally, the results suggest that continental European labour markets are inflexible and unable to adjust quickly to aggregate demand or supply shocks compared with their Anglo-Saxon counterparts. This evidence has driven us to gain a better understanding of the relevance of such a modelling approach and critically discuss its main methodological hypothesis. We relax its assumptions by including inactivity and by using flow data for the period 2010–2017. We compare the results thus obtained with transition rates derived using a three-state labour market model for France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. These countries represent the institutional settings of continental Europe on the one hand and Anglo-Saxon nations on the other. The implied transition rates are much higher, even in continental Europe, when inactivity is considered, thus suggesting that conclusions derived using an incomplete representation of the labour market are misleading. Inactivity therefore plays a crucial role and its inclusion provides a more exhaustive picture of labour mobility.     

Suicide mortality,long-term unemployment,and labor-market policies: Evidence from European countries

Using data from 25 EU countries spanning the period 1999–2017, this paper examines the relationship between working-age suicides and changes in long-term unemployment and tests for mitigating effects through the implementation of labor-market policies. The estimates suggest higher suicide risks following a rising rate of long-term unemployment. Passive support policies have a suicide-decreasing impact. Among active policies, a significant suicide-decreasing effect is found for training and direct job creation. The results have important policy implications in that they suggest that strong commitment of governments to passive or to certain types of active labor-market policies can, on average, contribute to social stability and the welfare of populations.     

Long-term unemployment and labour force participation: a decomposition of unemployment to test for the discouragement and added worker hypotheses

We sharpen tests for ‘discouragement’ and ‘added worker’ effects by splitting the explanatory variable – the unemployment rate – into a short-term component and a long-term component. While short-term unemployment (STU) might not result in additional workers on a large scale, long-term unemployment (LTU) reduces household income more, increasing the need for additional income. On the other hand, it may discourage older workers for psychological and sociological reasons. Applying our model to the German labour market, these hypotheses could be confirmed. Even for men, about whom only a few empirical studies on this issue are available, distinguishing between STU and LTU reveals added worker as well as discouragement effects.     

Natural and cyclical unemployment: A stochastic frontier decomposition and economic policy implications

This work splits effective unemployment into two components: natural unemployment, and cyclical unemployment. For that purpose, an estimation of the stochastic cost frontier is performed. The study is focused on the 17 autonomous communities in Spain over the period 1982–2012. Results evidence greater importance of the natural component as the principal determinant of effective unemployment. When comparing these results with those obtained applying univariate filters, the distribution in the components of the effective unemployment changes, increasing the importance of cyclical unemployment. This result indicates that the policymakers should have a greater power to implement aggregate demand policies.