Guest editors' introduction growth and globalization: Evolution of human resource management practices in Asia

In this introductory note, we offer an overview of how human resource management in Asian countries and corporations is evolving in the face of rapid business growth and integration into the global economy and we describe how the articles in this Special Issue contribute to new knowledge and insights regarding key issues, challenges, and evolution in the field of HRM in Asia. Driven by the combined forces of rapid gross domestic product growth in many Asian economies and their further integration into the global business arena, firms in Asia are in constant flux, no matter whether they are developed economies like Japan, Korea, andTaiwan; developing economies like Malaysia andThailand; or transitional economies like China and Vietnam. How will HRM systems in these countries evolve and transform under the combined forces of growth and globalization? We argue that HRM systems in these Asian firms most likely will evolve toward “bounded convergence.” The demands and expectations of the HR function to take on strategic roles (versus administrative roles) and address critical HR issues like attracting and retaining key talent, building talent pipelines, and creating high‐performing cultures are greater than ever. We conclude with a high‐level summary of the key contribution of the eight articles covered in this Special Issue. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Innovation, imitation and growth in a changing world economy

The rapid growth of East Asia, which has had such a dramatic impact on the world economy, is widely seen as a process of "catch-up" in which poorer nations grow rapidly assimilating Western and Japanese "know-how". However, this pattern is now changing. In particular, Korea and Taiwan are becoming centres of innovative activity. In this article, Michael Chui, Paul Levine, Joe Pearlman and Andrew Sentance analyse these developments. They argue that evidence of increasing innovation outside the West will be beneficial to world growth over the longer term and should be welcomed, not regarded as a threat.     

Europe and Central Asia after the May 2004 EU enlargement: A brief synthesis

This introduction provides a synthesis of the three papers in this symposium and its conclusion focusing on the potential trade between the Central Asian countries and the EU and highlights the impediments to achieving this potential. We argue that institutions matter and that, given the current level of institutional and infrastructure development in Central Asia, government intervention is necessary to establish a viable economic partnership.     

The Global Extent of the Great Moderation*

In 2008 the US financial crisis spilled over into a number of other economies causing declines in GDP across the world. Yet the decades preceding the current downturn had been a period of unprecedented stability for the US economy. This article examines annual data for 98 countries over the period 1961–2007 and finds that lower GDP growth volatility in the period preceding the current crisis was not confined to the US. It is detected in a number of developed and developing countries, suggesting that a reduction in volatility in this period was a more general phenomenon.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Are we entering another global ‘soft patch’?

• Global growth has tended to hit ‘soft patches’ at the start of recent years and some indicators are again pointing in that direction at present.
• In the US, we expect GDP growth at around 2% annualised in Q1 based on recent indicators which have included subdued jobs growth and some slowdown in housing.
• Meanwhile, the latest readings for the export orders components of key manufacturing surveys – which are good predictors of world trade growth – suggest some pullback after a modest upturn in the final months of 2013. Trade growth remains especially subdued in Asia, including Japan and China.
• The crisis in Ukraine also poses some downside risks, should it escalate further – in particular the danger of a sharp rise in European gas prices which could harm the still fragile Eurozone economy.
• Overall, we regard most of these factors as temporary and continue to forecast a strengthening global economy over the coming 18 months. US data at the start of this year have been partly dampened by climatic factors, while underlying domestic demand growth in Japan remains robust and the Eurozone outlook has continued to improve slowly.
• As a result, our world GDP growth forecasts are little changed from last month, at 2.8% for 2014 and 3.2% for 2015.
• This forecast is partly underpinned by a renewed pickup in world trade. But there are some risks to this assumption, including the possibility that emerging market countries will have to rapidly improve their current account positions due to the more restrictive external financing conditions associated with US tapering.
• Such an adjustment could put a significant dent in our forecast for world trade growth. For ten large emergers, shifting current account balances to our estimates of their sustainable levels would mean an adjustment of around US$280 billion – around 40% of the increment to world trade that we forecast for 2014.

     

World trade: Modest recovery continues

The latest indicators suggest a modest recovery in world trade. The apparent upswing in US import demand over the last couple of months is a notable positive signal for the global economy, and the constraining impact on world trade of the Eurozone recession of 2011–13 is also easing. The pace of world trade growth is, however, still relatively slow; our forecasts suggest world trade growth will only recover to its long‐term average level of just under 6% per year by end‐2015. Trade growth in key emerging markets also remains soft, although some indicators from Asia suggest an improving picture. One reason for the relatively weak growth in world trade may be a restructuring of global supply chains, reducing the growth in trade in intermediate goods. If so, this is not necessarily bad news for the global economy but may have distributional consequences, for example bearing down on growth in countries that have specialised in providing such goods including some emergers.     

Growth in stress

We propose a new global risk index, Growth-in-Stress (GiS), that measures the expected fall in a country’s GDP as the global factors, which drive world growth, are subject to stressful conditions. Using the GDP growth rates of 87 countries, we find that, since the 2008 financial crisis, though mainly from 2011 on, the world overall has fallen in a state of complacency, with the cross-sectional average GiS falling quite dramatically; in 2015, the average worst outcome seems to be no growth at the 95% probability factor stress. However, the cross-sectional dispersion within groups is quite variable: it is the smallest among industrialized countries and the largest among emerging and developing countries. We also measure the factor stress on different quantiles of the GDP growth distribution of each country. We calculate an Armageddon-type event as we seek to find the GiS on the 5% quantile of growth under the extreme 95% probability events of the factors, and find that it can be as large as an annual 20% fall in GDP.     

欧洲一体化对东亚经济一体化的启示

区域经济一体化是当前世界发展中的一个重要趋势。在探讨东亚经济一体化这一问题上,回顾欧洲一体化走过的道路无疑会给我们带来很多启示。针对东亚经济合作目前所呈现出来的多元化模式,我们不难看出,东亚经济一体化的发展瓶颈在于各国关系的有效处理和各国利益的合理分配。总之,从欧洲一体化的历程看东亚经济一体化,更应该确立合作的理念。同时,东亚经济一体化也可以借鉴欧洲经济一体化的经验,用具有约束力的条约机制去巩固每一个一体化成果。     

SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION: NEEDED POLICY CHANGES FOR INDIA

This paper is concerned with two questions: what is it that is unsustainable about the process of urbanization and growth of cities in developing countries?; and why do countries persist with strategies that are evidently unsustainable? Making use of data from India, which today has the second largest urban population in the world, and taking note of increasing global concern for sustainable urbanization, this paper points out that the developing countries have to move beyond a general acceptance of the concept to see it being put into practice.     

Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization

This paper evaluates the impact of service sector trade liberalization on the world economy by a ten-region, eleven-sector CGE model with import embodied technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. Simulation results show that service sector trade liberalization not only directly affects world service production and trade, but also has significant implications for other sectors in the economy. The major channel of the impact is through inter-industry input-output relations and TFP growth induced from services imported by developing countries from developed countries, which may be embodied with new information and advanced technology.     

短期国际资本流动新趋势、对我国的影响及其防范

当前,全球资本流动总量小幅但不均衡回升,未来有可能缓慢增长;发展中国家资本市场的发展正在逐渐改变国际资本流动的结构;国际金融市场参与者的角色发生很大的变化;国际资本向新兴经济体特别是亚洲新兴经济体大量流动.在短期国际资本的持续冲击下,新兴经济体已有形成资产泡沫的风险,并且在未来仍有继续扩大的趋势.对于中国而言,热钱在中国的投机空间有限,短期内大规模持续流入的条件还不具备,温和流入并时有反复可能将成长期趋势.要摆脱国际热钱大规模流动带来的包括人民币升值压力在内的一系列困扰,必须采取疏堵结合的方式:一方面,采取有效的防御性措施,监控各类热钱,加强流入管制;另一方面,应重视疏导的作用,抑制泡沫膨胀,吸引中长期国际资本,防范和限制短期资本泛滥.     

Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania

In this paper we demonstrate that the measurement of stock market efficiency is an important activity in establishing whether eastern European countries satisfy the Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership. Specifically, we argue that developing an efficient stock market should be an important policy focus for countries with aspirations to join the EU as it helps to demonstrate the existence of a functioning market economy. We illustrate this issue by examining the evolution of stock market efficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange from mid-1997 to September 2002. We use a GARCH model on daily price data and model the disturbances using the Student-t distribution to allow for ‘fat-tails’. We find strong evidence of inefficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange in that the lagged stock price index is a significant predictor of the current price index. This result is robust to the inclusion of variables controlling for calendar effects of the sort that have been observed in more developed stock markets. The level of inefficiency appears to diminish over time and we find evidence consistent with stock market efficiency in Romania after January 2000.     

Does Monetary Aid Catalyse New Business Creation? Analysing the Impact of Global Aid Flows on Formal and Informal Entrepreneurship

Official development aid – monetary transfers to developing countries to promote social and economic development – reached more than $140 billion in 2016. However, traditional forms of government bilateral aid continue to decline, while private aid is rising. Nevertheless, the impact of this aid, including its potential to stimulate economic development through new business formation, remains uncertain. In this study, we examine the impact of three sources of monetary aid flows on formal and informal entrepreneurship. Drawing from the international political economy literature we argue that bilateral aid and private aid are associated with higher levels of informal entrepreneurship, while multilateral aid is accompanied by lower levels. Moreover, we show that bilateral and private aid are linked with lower levels of formal entrepreneurship, while multilateral aid has no impact. The analyses of a panel of 313 observations from 49 countries provide robust support for these arguments.     

Mind the break! Accounting for changing patterns of growth during transition

We argue that econometric analyses of post-communist countries are vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this by identifying structural breaks in growth regressions estimated for 25 countries over 18 years. The method we use allows identification of structural breaks at a priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least three times, yielding four different models of growth. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs considerably.     

Does entrepreneurial activity matter for economic growth in developing countries? The role of the institutional environment

The discussion on which institutions determine entrepreneurial activity – and the role of institutions in the aggregated output for developing countries – is as yet unresolved. The extant literature about entrepreneurship recognizes new ventures as potential mechanisms for long-term development. Yet, there is a consensus on the lack of evidence, particularly for these countries. Drawing on institutional economics, this article explores the interrelationships among institutional environment, entrepreneurial activity, and economic growth. To this end, we use simultaneous-equation panel data models for a sample of 14 developing countries (78 observations) over the period of 2004–2012. The main findings suggest a causal chain running from institutions to opportunity entrepreneurship, which is linked to the economic growth of emerging economies. In particular, we find that institutional factors – such as the number of procedures to start a new business, private credit coverage ,, and access to communication– influence entrepreneurial activity driven by opportunity. Policy implications for developing countries could be derived in order to enhance their economic performance through entrepreneurial activity.

     

Harnessing Innovation for Change: Sustainability and Poverty in Developing Countries

To date, a well‐developed business perspective on how to promote sustainability for those in poverty is sorely lacking. For sustainability enhancing innovations in developing countries, poverty presents unique challenges. In this paper, we argue that if sustainability enhancing innovations introduced in developing countries are to stick, they need to be designed with local customers, networks, and business ecosystems in mind. We illustrate this view using case examples from mobile telephony, fuel efficient stoves, clean drinking water, and household electrification. Our paper underscores the need for today's managers to understand poverty as an integral part of the sustainability nexus and the new international business equation.     

Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panels: a New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries

The remarkable increase in FDI flows to developing countries over the last decade has focused attention on whether this source of financing enhances overall economic growth. We use a mixed fixed and random (MFR) panel data estimation method to allow for cross country heterogeneity in the causal relationship between FDI and growth and contrast our findings with those from traditional approaches. We find that the relationship between investment, both foreign and domestic, and economic growth in developing countries is highly heterogeneous and that estimation methods which assume homogeneity across countries can yield misleading results. Our results suggest there is some evidence that the efficacy of FDI in raising future growth rates, although heterogeneous across countries, is higher in more open economies.     

Real convergence,financial markets,and the current account – Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia

Global financial integration has been associated with divergent patterns of real convergence and the current account in emerging markets. While countries in emerging Asia have been running sizeable current account surpluses, countries in emerging Europe have been facing large current account deficits. In this paper we test for the relevance of financial market characteristics in explaining this divergence in the catching-up process in Europe and Asia. We assume that the two regions constitute distinct convergence clubs, with the euro area and the United States respectively at their core. In line with the theoretical literature, we find that better developed and more integrated financial markets increase emerging markets’ ability to borrow abroad. Moreover, the degree of financial integration within the convergence clubs – as opposed to the state of financial integration in the global economy – and the extent of reserve accumulation are significant factors in explaining the divergent patterns of real convergence and the current account in the regions under review.     

贸易保护对全球投资与经济增长的影响

本文在全球治理模型的基础上,模拟分析美国以及世界各主要国家和地区对进出口产品均提高关税后对经济增长的影响。模拟结果显示,美国有针对性地增加产品关税对美国经济增长并不有利,其贸易保护政策可能难以持续,而如果世界各主要国家和地区对进出口产品均提高关税,将使得印度以及低收入发展中国家的经济增长受到较大负面影响。经济的发展受到需求推动和生产技术推动,主导贸易保护只会进一步加剧矛盾,世界经济的发展需要各个国家和地区的共同努力和协同促进。     

政府债务对经济增长的影响及作用渠道

基于1960～2010年113个国家的面板数据集,运用系统广义矩动态面板方法和稳健性分析,比较发达国家和发展中国家政府债务经济增长效应的差异,并尝试分析政府债务影响经济增长的渠道。研究结果显示,政府债务对经济增长有非线性影响;发达国家政府债务对经济增长、投资以及全要素生产率均无显著影响;发展中国家对政府债务的直接承受力更弱,但在一个宽松的临界点内,政府债务的增加可以提高投资率。