2015年货币政策猜想:降息还有戏没有?

央行的核心是服务于四大目标:包括经济增长、通胀温和、充分就业以及金融稳定等等。2014年11月央行下调存贷款基准利率,引发新一轮降息周期的猜想。但降息后利率不降反升,再度降息、降准等预期数次落空,这是否意味着当前利率政策已经失效?那么2015年降息周期又能否延续呢?2014年11月央行下调存贷款基准利率,引发新一轮降息周期的猜想。但降息后利率不降反升,再度降息、降准等预期数次落空,这是否意味着当前利率政策已经失效?那么2015年降息周期又能否延     

美国次债危机研究与分析

2007年12月11日，美联储再次降息0．25％。这次降息是自9月18日降息0．5％和10月31日降息0．25％后的第三次降息。由于次级贷款的放大效应，地产贷款公司、投资银行以及对冲基金整个链条都不能幸免遇难。此次次级房屋贷款危机规模之大、影响范围之广使得全球金融界陷入了极度恐慌之中。     

央行大降息应警惕“合成谬误”

《新京报》不久前发表社论说，11月26日，央行一次性降息108个基点，力度仅次于1997年金融危机时降息144个基点。央行降息是追随全球救市步伐的必须之举。理论上大幅降息可以增加投资与消费。同时，降息可以降低负债率过高的企业的成本。     

央行不对称降息的信号及其对经济的影响

在我国经济下行压力巨大的情况下,本次降息将对经济产生重大影响,本文认为央行此次降息是经济下挫的被迫行为。它将推动我国利率的自由化,降低企业融资成本,进而促进投资。但是商业银行可能出现规避现象,使降息效果大打折扣,并且此次降息还会加快热钱外流,加剧地方债务危机。     

财富视点

美降息挤压中国加息空间10月31日美联储如市场预期中降息25个基点。美联储再次降息,表明次级债危机对其经济的影响比预期中严重。分析人士认为,美国经济可能下滑、中美利差缩小、人民币升值压力加剧,这些因素都压缩了中国未来继续加息的空间。     

船舶市场综合评述报告

美国联邦储备委员会3月中旬降息75个基点,至2．25％。考虑到物价上涨的因素．此次并未降息100个基点。这次降息的幅度说明,美联储已经意识到只靠货币政策并不能解决美国次贷危机所产生的影响。     

降息对我国当前消费、储蓄的影响

当前中国面临通货紧缩的威胁,2008年下半年中国经济出现下行趋势,国务院为扩大内需确定了四万亿元的投资计划,中国人民银行也连续五次降息旨在刺激消费,促进投资。但是降息这个货币政策能否起到预期的作用仍有待考量。本文从弹性和动机角度分析了降息对我国消费和储蓄的影响,认为当前降息的政策并不能大幅度的增加居民消费,减少储蓄。     

微博之声

范剑平 国家信息中心经济预测部主任 有人问我,为什么官方喜欢降息但不愿意减税。我的回答是,财政减税是政府自己要节俭花钱,对败家子而言犹如割肉。但降息、印钞票不是割肉是放水,放水淹老百姓。一边连续降息,一边高喊房价不反弹的口号,谁信？     

美联储为何突然降息?

2001年4月18日,美联储出人意料地降低银行隔夜拆借利率目标0.5%至4.5%,是6年多以来的最低点。具象征意义的贴现率也同时降低0.5%至4%。这是美联储今年以来第4次降低利率,共降低利率2个百分点。这也是今年以来美联储第2次在两次例会之间突然降息,上一次是1月3日。原本预期美联储会在5月15日的集会上再次降息,此次提前1个月降息,市场颇为意外。美联储此次降息后,5月15日例会上降息的可能性极微。美联储宣布降低利率以后。美洲银行、JP 摩根曼哈顿以及其他美国大银行均将其优惠贷款利率下调0.5个百分点至7.5%。     

缓解经济紧缩 促进经济增长——降息的市场效应

<正> 由于目前世界经济形势整体增长趋缓,及外部环境的恶化,给中国经济的增长造成了很多的压力,为扩大内需及缓解世界经济增长持续放慢对我国经济增长的消极影响,2002年2月21日,中央银行下调人民币存贷款利率。其中,存款利率平均降低0.25个百分点,贷款利率平均降低0.5个百分点。这次降息是继1996年5月以来的第八次降息,尽管降息空间有限,但是此次降息无     

根本违约制度探析

根本违约是从英国普通法上发展而来的一项合同法律制度,后来被《联合国国际货物买卖公约》采纳而成为一个国际性的条款。在当事人一方违约致使另一方订立合同时期望得到并且在正常履行情况下就能够得到的预期利益落空时则构成根本违约,非违约方可以解除合同,对其造成损失的还可以要求赔偿。根本违约制度设立的目的在于限制非违约方滥用解除合同的权利,尽量挽救合同的有效性。     

意大利美第奇家族银行的兴衰探析

美第奇家族银行从1397年建立,到1494年被其政治对手充公、结束历史使命为止,前后近百年,经历了比齐(1360-1428年)的创业、科西莫(1389-1464年)的辉煌和高多索(1416-1469年)、劳伦佐(1449-1492年)的衰落三个阶段,为中世纪佛罗伦萨经济谱写了辉煌的篇章。美第奇家族银行作为欧洲15世纪最著名的银行之一,在银行管理上形成了独具特色的控股公司的形式,在世界经济发展史上留下了自己的痕迹。在经济日新月异的今天,研究美第奇家族银行对全面了解美第奇家族对意大利文艺复兴的贡献和现代企业的发展仍具有重要的现实意义。     

反倾销中公共利益问题的理论探讨

随着反倾销措施实施频率增加,力度加大,改进和完善反倾销程序的呼声越来越高,在反倾销程序中采用公共利益原则成为必然的趋势。以公共利益原则指导反倾销调查能遏制反倾销措施的滥用,而且有利于国内各利益集团的利益平衡。本文根据公共利益概念在公共管理学和经济学、法学三个领域的体现,指出公共利益原则的本质在于提高社会整体福利水平,并介绍了反倾销中公共利益原则的起源、实施状况,分析了征收反倾销税对社会福利的影响,最后提出应该以公共利益原则指导反倾销调查,以实现社会福利最大化。     

论第三方支付机构客户备付金及其孳息的所有权的归属及行使

网络交易市场的不断增长,第三方支付方式的使用日益广泛,第三方支付机构所管理的客户备付金也不断增多。法理上,第三方支付机构客户备付金及其孳息的所有权应该由第三方支付机构的客户所享有;实际上,第三方支付机构客户备付金的孳息难以分配给其所有者。设立一个第三方机构代表第三方支付机构客户行使所有权,并完善相关立法,不失为解决这一问题的最好的途径。     

THE SOCIETY OF ARTS IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY. I. THE WORK OF THE FOOD COMMITTEE

The Society of Arts since its foundation in 1 754 has had a considerable interest in food. The Food Committee investigated aspects of meat, milk and fish from 1866 to 1881 and made an important contribution to the development of preservation, packaging and supply.     

SOCIAL DISCOUNTING AND THE LONG RATE OF INTEREST

The well‐known theorem of Dybvig, Ingersoll, and Ross shows that the long zero‐coupon rate can never fall. This result, which, although undoubtedly correct, has been regarded by many as surprising, stems from the implicit assumption that the long‐term discount function has an exponential tail. We revisit the problem in the setting of modern interest rate theory, and show that if the long “simple” interest rate (or Libor rate) is finite, then this rate (unlike the zero‐coupon rate) acts viably as a state variable, the value of which can fluctuate randomly in line with other economic indicators. New interest rate models are constructed, under this hypothesis and certain generalizations thereof, that illustrate explicitly the good asymptotic behavior of the resulting discount bond systems. The conditions necessary for the existence of such “hyperbolic” and “generalized hyperbolic” long rates are those of so‐called social discounting, which allow for long‐term cash flows to be treated as broadly “just as important” as those of the short or medium term. As a consequence, we are able to provide a consistent arbitrage‐free valuation framework for the cost‐benefit analysis and risk management of long‐term social projects, such as those associated with sustainable energy, resource conservation, and climate change.     

How can the word “NEW” evoke consumers' experiences of novelty and interest?

This paper examines the role advertising cues play in inducing subjective perceptions of product novelty and how they can evoke consumer interest toward an advertisement. Specifically, it uses behavioral and psychophysiological measures to: (1) investigate the effect of novelty cues on consumers’ subjective appraisal of novelty; (2) demonstrate that novelty cues may evoke the emotion of interest; and (3) differentiate the effect of the emotion of interest on liking and arousal. Across two experimental studies, we demonstrated that simply adding the word “new” in an advertisement increases behavioral (i.e., viewing duration) and psychophysiological responses (i.e., cardiac activity) of interest. However, the word “new” did not evoke liking and arousal. This suggests that novelty cues in an advertisement will make the consumers perceive the product to be novel and further evoke consumer interest.     

Bank of England: a View from Frankfurt

The 1998 Bank of England Act made the Bank independent to set interest rates in pursuit of its objective as defined in the same Act: to deliver price stability. Ten years on, Hans-Helmut Kotz of the Deutsche Bundesbank presents a personal view of developments at the Bank of England over the past decade. paper originally written – in a purely personal capacity – for the Royal Economic Society's “Newsletter”, July 2007. The author would like to thank Ben Friedman (Harvard) and Peter Howells (Bristol) for very helpful comments.     

入世后中国利率环境的变化及利率趋势

利率 ,作为资金或资本的“价格” ,与一国的储蓄投资、宏观经济调控紧密关联。随着中国市场经济不断完善发展 ,利率的价格调节功能对中国深化经济改革和优化经济发展日益重要。加入WTO后 ,中国经济的市场化、国际化程度将进一步加深 ,利率环境即决定和影响中国利率的诸多因素将发生变化。通过实证分析入世后中国利率环境的变化 ,在对影响利率各因素详尽分析的基础上给出入世后中国利率趋势 ,具有重要的现实意义。     

Strategic inertia,financial fragility and organisational failure: The case of the Birkbeck Bank, 1870–1911

This article looks at the key factors behind the failure of the Birkbeck Bank in 1911. Using a wide range of primary source material, it charts how the Bank emerged from its philanthropic roots as a mutual building society in the 1870s to go on and enjoy spectacular growth during the late nineteenth century before eventually faltering and failing in the early twentieth century. Throughout the analysis, particular attention is given to the investment decisions taken by the Bank's management and the impact that these had on the Bank's fortunes. In addition, the article also looks at the extent to which the Birkbeck Bank's overall business model differed from those of other banks in this period. Ultimately, what it shows is that the Bank's failure to modify its investment strategy quickly enough in response to changing market conditions – most notably the fall in the value of Consols and other gilt-edged securities – proved to be the decisive factor in its eventual collapse. For this reason, the article contends, it is appropriate to categorise the 1911 Birkbeck Bank failure as one caused by strategic inertia rather than excessive risk-taking.